By Rusiripala Tennakoon –

Since of late Sr Lankan Presidential Elections have become a battle ground with the number of candidates progressively growing. Last Presidential Election held on 16^th Nov 2019 fielded36 contestants while the 2024 candidacy increased to 38 numbers but ironically due to the demise of one candidate the number came down to 37 as of today.

When we look at the results of the last Presidential Election in 2019, The contest was polarized between two main candidates,  and the final result was

Gotabaya Rajapaksa                                                    SLPP       6,924,,255           52.25%

Sajith Premadasa                                                           NDF        5,564,,239          41.99%

The next highest was

Anura kumara Dissanayake                                       NMPP             418,553           3.16%

All 33 other candidates polled a total of  2.6% of the total valid votes with the highest polling  0.37 %.

That was the 3^rd occasion of the JVP and coalitions led by JVP contested Presidential elections in this country. The founder leader of the JVP Rohana Wijeweera contested in 1982 and came 3^rd poling only 273,428 Votes which was 4.19% of the total polled. In this election the JVP leader polled over 4% of the votes in the following districts

Trinco 5.7% ; Hambantota 14.62% ; Matara 6.62% ; Galle 4.98% ; Matale 4.43% ; Anuradhapura 5.88%;

Polonnaruwa 7.71% ; Moneragala 6.91 % ; Kegalle 4.00%

The next Presidential election contested by JVP was in 1999, Nandana Gunatillake as the party candidate. He polled a total of 344,173 votes which was 4.08% of the Total Votes polled

10 other contestants received the other votes the highest among them polling 0.43%.

In 2010 election JVP supported Sarath Fonseka who lost polling only 36.4% against MR who polled 61%.

The JVP did not field a candidate in the 2015 Presidential Election where Maithripala Sirisena won   defeating MR (47.5%) by polling 51% of the Votes.

JVP contested the 2019 Presidential Election under the new Coalition  NPP  fielding Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the Presidential candidate and polled 3.16% , polling  a total of 418,553 votes.

In the current Presidential Election according to the prevailing situation the contest appears  to be between 3 main contenders Namely, Ranil Wickramesinghe (Independent and incumbent President), Sajith Premadasa  (SJB and the leader of Opposition), Anura Kumara Dissanayake (Leader of the JVP now in coalition as NPP). Various research organizations, NGOs, have published results of their surveys conducted on their own. While I do not wish to be aligned with any of those determinations, hope to produce an analysis based on the past results and present the position basing the available information projecting it to the future on a balance of probabilities. My projections are on the theory of “more likely than not to have occurred”. We are aware that  researchers apply various new hypothesis  to conclude on a possibility. Whereas in a forecast made on the balance of probability  the focus will be on the actual happenings before us, taken as probable evidence for a possible explanation of something that could happen in relation to the happenings of the past .

In the Current election the total number of eligible voters  17.1 million. It is also on record that one million new voters are included in this number. Another significant factor that needs to be taken into account in any related probing is that 56% of the voter base comprises of women. It is this voter base that will decide who the president of the country is going to be .

These voters have during all the previous elections casted the vote to the candidates of their choice. The important factor here is how they change their choice from time to time. The continued engagement of any party or individual in the sphere of  socio-political activities is an important factor for the creation of an opinion about their suitability to be elected to the helm of affairs in a country and take care of the future. Their involvements in the issues confronted by people at times of difficulties or during controversies interacting  harmoniously in their relationships determines to a great extent the degree of their acceptance.

The new faces run the disadvantage of reaching the voter base and canvassing their opinion by entering the fray from no-where. Even in the company of a few with such a background in coalition , most of which appear to be unholy, their chances are few. This has been reflected clearly in the results of the previous elections. Splinter groups, ad hoc alliances have been swiped out by the voters.

1982-3, 1994-4, 1999-10, 2019-33 of such groups were eliminated by the voters by throwing them out with  each of them receiving far less than 1% of the total votes cast.

The results of the 2019 Presidential Election where we saw this new phenomenon of mushroom groupings entering the contest, clearly shows this voter preference.

The Voter turn out was 83.72%

Winning candidate    Gotabaya Rajapaksa                            6, 924,255 votes          52.25%

                                      Sajith Premadasa                                  5,564,239 votes            41.99%

                                    Anura Kumara Dissanayake                     418,553 votes              3.16%

33 others who contested independently and as party candidates, ended up with  each of them receiving less than 0.37%  of the votes.

Now in this background let us take a look at the current scenario before we apply the Balance of Probability theory.

There are 38 candidates in all. Due to the demise of one the number as at today stands at 37!

The 3 main groups seen as active players and considered as prospective runners finishing as the 1^st 2^nd and 3^rd are as follows;

Ranil Wickremesinghe – Independent       

Sajith Premadasa – SJB

Anura Kumara Dissanayake –  NPP( of new JVP alliance)

The 34 other runners are either new entrants OR those who are categorized as the also ran in the previous elections with no significant performance.

Ranil Wickremesinghe is the incumbent President and he commands an undisputed successful performance record in driving the country out of the crisis situation and also has a long background experience in the political arena serving as a Cabinet Minister in powerful Governments, Prime Minister, Leader of the Opposition and a long history as a renowned parliamentarian. His score card records an  acclaimed position in the delivery of proven results putting things back in order from a threatened State of Anarchy and a declared bankruptcy.

Sajith Premadasa of the SJB has a background  record of running a successful second in a keenly contested previous election. He was short of about 1.4 million votes or a percentage difference of about 11%. No doubt he is a formidable contestant. He also commands an acclamation of his interest in the down trodden masses and the hereditary favorable influence from his late father recognized by the poor as their friend.

The 3^rd contestant is AKD of the JVP now coming forward in a coalition NPP. His polarization reflects the presence of a few lawyers who were closely associated with the infamous “Aragalaya” and some intellectuals and elites not seen much in association with public activities. He appears to be a well-accepted contestant in the race and the public response displayed in his favor is convincing. Let us examine applying the Balance of Probability hypothesis to his case with the realistic historical information about the past election performances.

JVP for the first time entered the democratic process by contesting the First Presidential Election held in the country. The party was led by it’s founder leader no one other than Rohana Wijeweera. He commanded a high respect among the voter population being a vociferous orator and a person released from custody following the country shaken insurgency launched by them. That campaign too, we saw, as a popular crowd pulling one with fairly large numbers attending, including party stalwarts as well as ordinary folks. Ironically he was contesting under a constitution criticized by many including him as a Draconian piece of legislation.

He was however able to poll only 273,428 votes and managed to get 4.19% of the votes. It is important to look at the polling percentages which were the pointers of popularity of the party then, in their peak, district wise.

Hambantota 14.62%; Polonnaruwa 7.71% ; Moneragala 6.91% ; Matara  6.62% ; Anuradhapura 5.88% ; Trincomalee  5.7% ; Galle  4.98% ; Matale  4.43% ; Kegalle  4.00%

JVP did not contest 1988 and 1994 elections. They not only boycotted  the 1988  one but issued a country wide threat to shoot the first 10 voters in the voting ques. They were absorbed into the cabinet of the Winning candidate in the 1994 election. Chandrika Kumaratunga accepting 3 ministry portfolios. By then they have returned into  the democratic process.

The JVP entered the Presidential Election in 1999 and the results of that election were as follows;                         

Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga                                  4,312,157 PA           51.12%

Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe                                       3,602,748 UNP         41%

Mr  M.D. Nandana Gunathilake                                   344,173 JVP         3.98%

Mr Nanda Gunathilake has since left the JVP and is supporting another party.

The JVP did not contest the Presidential Elections in 2010 and 2015. In the 2010 election the JVP supported the candidature of Sarath Fonseka who lost to MR.

In the 2015 election MR was defeated by Maithripala Sirisena and the political forces including UNP supported his candidature.

Now this historical data shows that JVP either as a single party or in coalition has not been able to poll even 5% of the total votes.

When AKD himself contested in 2019 under a new coalition he managed to poll only 3.16%. Throughout there Vote base has been fluctuating in numbers well below 500,000.

If we apply the  voter turnout  percentage it has always been around 78 to 83%. So if we take an average hypothetical figure of 80% as the voter percentage the number of voters this time would be around 13.8 million Say 14 million. Accordingly any winning candidate has to poll around 7 million.

Taking into account the district wise support base shown for the JVP reaching a record of 7,000,000  votes from 500,000 long standing level seems a gigantic task for the JVP and its allies. Unless there is a miraculous switch over this obviously is an impossible task.

Hence under the balance of Probability concept it can be presumed that the contest is centered between the Independent Candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNP dissident, now SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa.

The odds in favor of RW in all respect are far above due to many factors. The Crisis faced by the country not too long ago in falling into the worst known economic calamity. The circumstances that followed. The threat to democracy and the near escape from a state of anarchy. The responses shown by the candidates in the election fray now when they were asked to come forward and accept the responsibility of taking the country forward. The extreme cold  displayed by the International Donors as well as Sovereign Bond holders. The declaration o a virtual State of Bankruptcy that became imminent due to the unprecedented lowering of country ratings provoking the foreign lenders to whom the country was indebted to demand payment for their investments. An undemocratic threat which appeared more like a Coup instigated by some unseen foreign force to destabilize us growing to an uncontrollable level where the parliamentary democracy was at stake. Ironically that state has been advocated by some of the parties in the forefront of the election fray today. The untold hardships faced by the entire population without a difference in all walks of life.

The Transfer of power which was accepted and braved  by Ranil Wickremesinghe in a fragile background  caused all to mistrust its sustainability then. But the way issues were addressed and resolved with confidence and extremely careful handling in that exercise of walking the rope satisfying the opposing groups by virtually holding them spell bound, stands well above any other performance that can be expected from the other contenders. People will endorse what they have seen rather than waiting to see and rely on promises given by parties who wish to try experiments.

The German experience where Gobbles carried on a campaign very convincing at that, to help bring Hitler into power. Voters have to carefully take into consideration the highly decorated misleading propaganda campaigns carried on by some of the contesting contenders designed to confuse the voters. What they have to do instead is to see the transformation that have taken place to convert the declining economy into a progressively forward  moving  economy

Before believing or falling into campaigns designed to mislead the voters they should consider the need of the Country today, which is a learned and experienced and not a learner trying experiments.