
By Ameer Ali –

Dr. Ameer Ali
On 21 August 2024 Colombo Telegraph published an article titled, “Will the Old Order Accept AKD Victory?” The reason for raising that question then was because, of all the 39 contestants in the race for Presidency, including the two front runners Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) and Sajith Premadasa (SP), only AKD stood for something radically different. While all the others had exhibited no understanding of the root cause of the poly-crises that plagued the nation and promising blindly to tackle them rather spasmodically with the help of foreign agencies and advisors, only AKD was advocating something entirely different. He identified the root cause of the crises in the reigning political culture and system of governance and vowed to uproot them completely through a social revolution if voters gave him a clear mandate. In fact, he was giving voice to the political aspirations of a new generation of Sri Lankans some of whom gathered peacefully at the Galle Face Green in 2022 to express their loss of confidence on the government of the day and demanded “system change”. That slogan expressed and elaborated repeatedly through the oratorical skill of AKD soon caught the imagination of a whole generation of voters, which finally resulted in his victory at the Presidential Election. That election was virtually transformed into a contest between the old and new orders.
But his victory however was not as overwhelming as the new generation had expected because of the less than 50% of votes garnered by AKD. His critics were quick to dub him as a minority president. Yet, it was an approval for system change none the less. However, since the majority did not vote for AKD his victory provided a window of opportunity to the two main losers, RW and SP, who are the products and beneficiaries of the old order and therefore had no appetite for any system change. They therefore decided to try their fortune at the General Election in November. Just like the Presidential contest in September the November election too promised to be a battle between two orders.
Against all expectations the results turned out to be an avalanche with a massive swing of voter preference towards AKD’s National Peoples Power (NPP). It was an avalanche because the votes he polled came from almost all corners of the country and from every community. With more than two-thirds of parliamentary seats captured, NPP is in an unassailable position to put into effect its program for system-change without compromising. But the humiliation suffered by his two main opponents and their close supporters is immeasurable. They still don’t seem to have recovered from that shock. Will they wait patiently for another five years to try their luck again, although RW would be nearing his eighth decade of his life? Or will the ancient regime try short cuts to end the rule of NPP through undemocratic means? This indeed is the worrying concern.
At the domestic front, while the majority of Sri Lankans are obviously fed up with the old order – an order which hijacked the country’s parliamentary democracy and its pluralist ethos to turn it virtually into a Sinhala-Buddhist majoritarian ethnocracy with a system of governance noted more for endemic corruption and mismanagement than honesty and accountability – and therefore welcomes the new alternative, there is a significant lot of disgruntled but influential elements that are licking their electoral wounds and wandering what to do next. Those elements will not rest until they recapture power and restore the ancient regime with vengeance. There are enough instances in history where this had occurred. 2011 post-Arab Spring experience of Egypt is among the more recent ones. A series of reforms that the new government is scheduled to undertake such as the anti-corruption drive, ethnic reconciliation, secularising the country’s democracy with a new constitution, cleansing the market of mafia control and so on would provide ample opportunities for the losers to stirrup trouble.
At the foreign front also, there is mixed reception for the new government. Behind the diplomatic formality of congratulating AKD and his NPP there would certainly be concerns in certain quarters particularly in the West about the new regime’s leftist orientation and its soft corner for China on matters of strategic foreign relations. Even on the economic front, although AKD is committed to maintain an open free-market economy there would still be areas where the state needs to exert some control in the interest of rejuvenating the domestic production sector, achieving food security and maintaining a degree of economic independence. Several developing countries especially in Africa and Latin America, which blindly got hooked to the open economy model of global capitalism have ultimately become net importers of even food items produced in rich countries, and consequently had fallen into financial debt. After 1978, Sri Lanka too followed the same track and is now struggling to pay back its huge debt. Ranil Wickremesinghe wanted to go along that way until 2048. Thank God! People rejected him. With a commitment to go along with the IMF agenda, NPP government should look out for other avenues and possibilities to achieve its economic objectives. IMF is more worried about financial stability than economic stability although the two are interconnected. But NPP wants to achieve both to become economically independent. Extra resources are therefore needed. It is in this context that ethnic reconciliation should be given priority in government’s list of reforms. There is a huge amount of untapped investment potential lying outside the country and within the expatriate Tamil, Muslim and even Sinhalese communities which could be harnessed to rebuild the local economy. Ethnic reconciliation with corruption free government therefore becomes an absolute requirement to build an independent economy within the open economy model. AKD’s call for system change at home also sends a subtle message internationally that the reigning global capitalist model also needs change.
All this no doubt would raise concern among certain foreign powers such as US, India, China and lately Israel at the foreign policy direction of the new regime. China’s One Belt Road and String of Pearls strategies are viewed by US as threats to its imperial domination. That threat may intensify once the Hawkish President Donald Trump enters the White House in January 2025. India too believes, as K. M. Panikkar once pointed out, that without control over the Indian Ocean its security would be jeopardized. China’s foothold at Hambantota is an eyesore to both these countries. And Israel as the most reliable agent of US and friend of India could play the role of an agent provocateur on Sri Lankan soil if necessity arises. The recent incident at Arugam Bay and mushrooming Chabad Houses should be a cause for concern to local authorities.
Thus, while the domestically disgruntled political elements are looking for opportunities to make life difficult for President AKD and his NPP government those very elements could become tools at the hands of foreign elements with their own strategic agenda. In recent years Sri Lanka had been bedevilled with intelligence failures. If there is one area where the new government needs pay immediate attention it is to improve the operation of its intelligence agencies. With full support from the masses, with Kautilya diplomacy and with sharp intelligence services Sri Lanka under NPP could regain its lost reputation as the most hospitable and peaceful democratic nation in the whole of Asia at least.
What has been discussed so far may sound farfetched and could be criticised as sheer fantasy. However, it is better to err on the side of caution than to be caught unprepared when the tremor strikes.
*Dr. Ameer Ali, Business School, Murdoch University, W. Australia
Nathan / December 12, 2024
… the others had exhibited no understanding of the root cause of the poly-crises.
Well, well; Tell me what they are, Ameer Ali.
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davidthegood / December 12, 2024
Surely all know the root cause of poly-crises, is robbery of national assets by the enlarged murderer family leaving the citizens starving while Parliament employed foreign cooks for their palates thinking they are special elites. What deception introduced into the voting. Our citizens must learn now not to become gullible fools anymore.
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Sarath / December 14, 2024
DTG seems to have become a doubting Thomas. Recently no more chapters and verse from the book. No more wanting to proselytise for heavenly brownie points.
Hell beckons?
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davidthegood / December 15, 2024
Sarath, better not show your anti-bible mentality. It’s not what you say that happens in the Creator’s Universe and Family. Hell has been beckoning you for a long time now.
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LankaScot / December 15, 2024
Hello DTG,
Not often that I find myself in agreement with you regarding the root causes, but yes you are right. However I would like to see some Transparency and Good Governance introduced from the top down. If the NPP can influence (or compel) the Judiciary to comply with and uphold the Laws laid down by Parliament that would be a step towards ensuring that criminals would not be able to wield power on their, or their Families behalf.
Best regards
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old codger / December 14, 2024
“A series of reforms that the new government is scheduled to undertake such as the anti-corruption drive, ethnic reconciliation, secularising the country’s democracy with a new constitution, “
Really? Dr. Ali gets more optimistic by the day. When and where exactly did the NPP promise to “secularise” the constitution?
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old codger / December 14, 2024
DTG,
“Our citizens must learn now not to become gullible fools anymore.”
True that.
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Mahila / December 15, 2024
Remember AKD saying Equal, Independent assertion of Rights, without interference on Caste, Race and Linguistic Freedom!!?? CAN’T REMEMBER use of the WORD SECULARISM!!!??? All in the game of Garnering dissension, A Past-time well acquainted and Pipe-Dream of the Lankan Opposition still “REELING” with the effects of the massive electoral defeat they encountered in 11/2024!!?? Or is it a NEW VISION to REGAIN POWER!!??
Can identify a lone happy face at the resignation of Asoka Ranawala!!??
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Lasantha Pethiyagoda / December 13, 2024
As usual, an excellent analysis and insightful comments by the writer. Ranil is in his eighth decade now (70 + years) and the grand criminal and his fellow travellers like Sajith will certainly want to leave a legacy of destruction while their families and friends in big business prosper. The NPP should be smart enough to ensure that their popular mandate in not undermined by the hyenas and vultures. The IMF has no love for struggling third world states. It should not be the main source of credit in future, until Sri Lanka pays back its loans and starts lending instead. The Americans hold the world record for sowing dissent and creating divisions between hitherto peacefully coexisting peoples. Their outward demeanor should never be trusted.
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SJ / December 13, 2024
“only AKD stood for something radically different.”
A sweeping statement.
Have you checked all candidates?
There were ones that were much bolder on the national question.
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SJ / December 13, 2024
“It was an avalanche because the votes he polled came from almost all corners of the country and from every community.”
Not my understanding of an avalanche.
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SJ / December 14, 2024
Nice to know that there are people who have seen an avalanche coming from all directions. Can we share some images?
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Douglas / December 13, 2024
“A WORRYING CONCERN”. YES. It is.
This President AKD is not quick enough to DISCIPLINE his team. Take the case of that “Dr.” Ranwala – the Speaker.
When this question first came to light (highlighted by the Opposition) the President, AKD should have summoned this “Dr.” Ranwala and asked him directly about his credentials. If Ranwala said, ” I have no documents to prove or submit” (as he said in his letter of resignation yesterday) – AKD should have asked him to STEP DOWN immediately. Why did AKD allow it to drag so long? That is unpardonable. We have heard AKD saying: ” I will not hesitate to take action on anyone, without considering his/her status, if he/she commits wrongdoing”. Do we have to ask any more times to WALK THE TALK?
What JVP/NPP should do now? Simple. EXPELL Ranwala from the party membership, so that he will be unseated in Parliament. Why? Because Ranwala has DECEIVED not only the party but the PEOPLE in particular for so long. Period.
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Raj-UK / December 15, 2024
A doctorate is not a necessary qualifications for the speaker of the house but the speaker controls order & an important member of the govt. after the President & PM, therefore, has to be seen as credible to be respected. Claiming false academic credentials is a fraud, therefore, a deception, & the speaker has to be above board to gain the trust of the people & that reflects on the overall govt. as well. If the academic claim is proved to be false, then the NPP have made their first error by not vetting their key members & the question arises if there are more deceptions, maybe unknown to the President but the buck stops with him
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SJ / December 14, 2024
“China’s One Belt Road and String of Pearls strategies”
I know of the OBR exists.
SoP? Whose fantasy necklace is that?
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Mahila / December 15, 2024
SJ,
That connotation has been attributed to the group of Chinese funded project on Developing Countries in ASIA, MID-EAST, OCEANIA and AFRICA, since 2000!!!???
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Mahila / December 15, 2024
SJ,
That connotation has been attributed to the group of Chinese funded project on Developing Countries in ASIA, MID-EAST, OCEANIA and AFFRCA, since 2000!!!???
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LankaScot / December 16, 2024
Hello SJ,
The “One Belt Road” doesn’t quite fit with Dr Ali’s inclusion of the Indian Ocean. You need an analogy that includes small Islands like Sri Lanka and the Maldives, thus you invent “String of Pearls strategies”.
As for Sri Lanka regaining its reputation “as the most hospitable and peaceful democratic nation in the whole of Asia at least” – when exactly was this?
Best regards
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Mahila / December 15, 2024
“And Israel as the most reliable agent of US and friend of India could play the role of an agent provocateur on Sri Lankan soil if necessity arises.”
That’s a very good smokescreen!!??
Then what about, ISIS, HAMAS, HISBULLA and all related Junk spread around ME!!??
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LankaScot / December 16, 2024
Hello Mahila,
Have you forgotten something?
“Israel was a key source of weapons and training for the Sri Lanka Armed Forces during the Sri Lankan Civil War against the LTTE. Israel sold weapons to the country, including the IAI Kfir fighter jet, the Super Dvora Mk III-class patrol boat, Saar 4 class missile boats and the Gabriel missile”. And that’s just Wikipedia.
For a more in depth outline of Israel’s role in the Civil War read this Article from The Diplomat – https://thediplomat.com/2023/07/israels-role-in-sri-lankas-dirty-war/
Remember all Israelis above a certain age (except the Ultra Religious)have served in the Military and are subject to recall.
Best regards
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