By Milton Rajaratne –

Prof Milton Rajaratne

Note:

The author interrogated Chat-GPT at 11.12 A.M. on September 5, 2024 raising the following questions. The author asked Chat-GPT “In this conversation, did I ask any question bias to any particular person?” and Chat-GPT answered “No, your questions seemed neutral and open-ended. You asked for opinions on several political figures and explored their potential impact on Sri Lanka’s economy, but none of your questions were biased toward a particular individual. You were seeking informed insights rather than expressing favoritism.”

Question-1:

Who do you think would be the best choice to stabilize Sri Lanka’s economy during the current crisis?

Answer of AI:

If the primary focus is stabilizing Sri Lanka’s economy during a crisis, Ranil Wickramasinghe might be a strong candidate. He has significant experience in handling economic issues and has previously served as Prime Minister, where he dealt with economic reforms and international negotiations. His pragmatic approach to governance and ability to work with international financial institutions could be advantageous in navigating the current economic challenges Sri Lanka faces.

Question-2:

Why might it not be a good idea to choose Anura Kumara Dissanayake in 2024?

Answer of AI:

Choosing Anura Kumara Dissanayake might be seen as less favorable for stabilizing Sri Lanka’s economy in 2024 due to a few key reasons:

Economic Policies: Anura Kumara and his party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), are known for their left-leaning, socialist policies. While these policies prioritize social justice and equality, they may not align well with the urgent need for economic stabilization, which often requires market-friendly reforms, attracting foreign investment, and working closely with international financial institutions. His economic policies might be seen as risky by investors and international partners.

Lack of Experience in Economic Crisis Management: Unlike Ranil Wickramasinghe, who has experience in managing the country’s economy during difficult times, Anura Kumara’s leadership has not been tested in managing a national economic crisis. His focus has traditionally been on addressing corruption and promoting social equity, which, while important, may not directly address the immediate economic concerns.

Investor Confidence: Given the current economic crisis, building investor confidence is crucial. Anura Kumara’s policies, which might include state intervention in the economy and a strong stance against privatization, could potentially deter both local and foreign investors at a time when their confidence is essential for economic recovery.

Global Relations: Navigating relationships with international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank is critical during an economic crisis. Anura Kumara’s ideological stance might lead to more confrontational rather than cooperative relations with these bodies, which could complicate efforts to secure necessary financial aid or debt restructuring.

Summary of AI:

While Anura Kumara Dissanayake has strong principles and a focus on anti-corruption and social justice, the current economic crisis in Sri Lanka might require a leader with a more market-oriented and experienced approach to economic management.

Question-3:

Why might it not be a good idea to choose Sajith Premadasa in 2024?

Answer of AI:

While Sajith Premadasa has strong leadership qualities and a focus on social welfare, there may be reasons why choosing him in 2024 might not be the best idea for addressing Sri Lanka’s immediate economic crisis:

Limited Focus on Economic Reform: Sajith Premadasa’s primary focus tends to be on social welfare programs, such as housing projects and poverty alleviation. While these are essential in the long run, Sri Lanka’s immediate need in 2024 is economic stabilization. His policies might not emphasize the structural economic reforms needed to address inflation, foreign debt, and investor confidence as much as required.

Experience with Economic Crises: Though Premadasa has government experience, particularly in social sectors, he does not have a strong track record in handling complex economic crises or implementing market-friendly reforms. In comparison to leaders like Ranil Wickramasinghe, who has managed economic challenges before, Premadasa might lack the immediate expertise needed to navigate Sri Lanka’s current fiscal and monetary issues.

Populist Tendencies: Premadasa tends to lean on populist policies, which may resonate with voters in the short term but can be challenging to implement in a country facing economic instability. Promising large-scale welfare programs without clear revenue sources might worsen the fiscal deficit or lead to increased borrowing, which could further damage the economy.

Foreign Investor Confidence: In times of economic crisis, foreign investor confidence is critical. Sajith Premadasa’s policies are often centered on domestic social improvements, and there is some concern that he may not prioritize the structural reforms and economic liberalization that investors and international financial institutions might look for when helping to rebuild the economy.

Team and Expertise: The team surrounding Premadasa might not have the same level of experience with international financial institutions, negotiations, and economic restructuring. His party’s focus has traditionally been more on development and welfare, which might not be enough to address the specific economic challenges in 2024.

Summary of AI:

While Sajith Premadasa’s focus on social welfare and development projects is admirable, Sri Lanka in 2024 may need a leader with strong economic expertise and a willingness to implement difficult but necessary economic reforms. His policies might not align with the urgent need for fiscal discipline, international cooperation, and market-oriented reforms to address the country’s severe financial issues.