By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

Before the Election Commission announced the presidential election on 26 July 2024, the government made various attempts to cause instability and uncertainty based on the term of the president’s office, postponement of the presidential election for two years, five years, and parliamentary elections should help first, etc. All were purely bitter politics that did not have any democratic principles and norms. Knowing their future defeat in the presidential election, SLPP tried to be with Prez Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa to be appointed Prime Minister if RW won. This opportunistic and cunning attempt failed utterly. Indeed, RW got the SLPP’s support in 2022 to go ahead with his policy agenda, not along with the SLPP policies of which SLPP was severely caught was a severe defeat to SLPP. Regarding the IGP’s appointment, Prez RW created a very uncomfortable conflict between the legislature, executive, and judiciary, which was bitter politics because Prez RW wanted to stall the electoral process. At the same time, rumors of the formation of political alliances and the division of political parties, particularly SLFP, were well planned for power greed, purely bitter politics. “We are neither feared nor in debt,” by Basil Rajapaksa surprised all, including Prez RW.

When the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremesinghe (Prez RW), confirmed his candidacy as an independent candidate, it surprised the majority for many reasons. Prez RW broke his dead silence on the matter, and hence, the move was bitter political because it was power greed not to serve the country at all. Following the above, Sri Lanka witnessed unprecedented bitter political somersaults that completely changed the political landscape. Many SLPP supporters wanted to support Prez RW; most importantly, SLPP stalwarts were among them. One such stalwart publicly committed to supporting Namal Rajapaksa to be king in the future joined Prez RW.  That crossover vindicated the nature and extent of bitter politics in Sri Lanka. One Minister from Ratnapura, who was part and parcel, or lifeblood of SLPP, decided to be with Prez RW, which was undoubtedly the most unexpected by Prez RW, given the past savage, vicious, ferocious criticisms leveled against Perz RW by that Minister. In Short, birds of the same feather flock together. It is indeed bitter for the people to see such politicians around them. Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe resigned from his ministerial post and wanted to contest the presidential election and expose certain things, such as bitter politics. Dammika Perera was seen as the only candidate from SLPP because he is a business tycoon with no political life or experience in cheap politics. Communication from Prasanna Ranatunga to Mahinda Rajapaksa was bitter politics again; an array of statements by Udayanga Weeratunga showed his immaturity in the political affairs of Madamulana or SLPP. Furthermore, Prez RW met the SLPP hierarchy and requested support but was rejected, bitter politics. The latest is the resignation of two ministers due to crossovers, an outcome of bitter politics. The destiny of the SLPP supporters who committed to supporting Prez RW is that most of them will be defeated during the next parliamentary election, which is the outcome of ultimate bitter politics. Namal’s candidacy for the presidential election confirmed his premature death in politics and the demise of Madamulana, which was bitter politics. In short, Dammika Perera wanted to protect his pocket rather than be committed to working for SLPP and the country. UNP wants to support independent candidate Prez RW, who has no party or symbol-bitter politics like sea waves with no end.  However, bitter politics has not been a recent phenomenon at all. It has been deeply rooted for decades. I just summarised some central aspects of the bitterness of Sri Lanka politics over the last few weeks to indicate the relationship between such bitter politics and the miserable situation in the country for which the selfish politicians have no concern about the sufferings of the people. If the politicians were committed to serving the country as their first and most desire, political bitterness, as indicated above, cannot be seen. In other words, before politicians planned for political somersaults, their constituencies were abandoned or unaware of where politicians were heading. This means constituencies were isolated, but the politicians in Colombo had political somersaults. Given the background of the collapsed economy and the mounting suffering of the people, bitter political events in the last few weeks vividly indicate the political underdevelopment in the country. One may question how long the government or the country should go with this political underdevelopment in which people’s misery is not heard and attended, as below.

Bitter Politics and Misery of People in the Post-Aragalaya

If not properly organized and managed, the US$ 100 billion massive debt burden, probably even that the next generation is forced to pay back, and the unprecedented sufferings of the people accordingly.  Given the above, it is worth noting that per capita debt, including the unborn, is US$4546.    

If focuses on sufferings, according to the ‘Household Survey on the Impact of Economic Crisis 2023 -Department of Census and Statistics”, 54.9% of households are currently in debt, 60.5% of households have experienced a decrease in their total average monthly income, and 91% of households experienced an increase of their total monthly expenditure. It reveals that the highest lending activities are related to 31% of mortgage activities, and there is no doubt that people’s substantial gold jewellery is with the money lenders. More than 43.4% of children under age five are suffering from nutrition problems, while 25 percent children below the age of one year experience sleep-related issues, according to medical experts. In short, child poverty is a severe problem and is rising.  Rising unemployment and underemployment are a significant concern. It has been reported that the national poverty line, which determines the minimum income threshold to meet basic needs such as food, shelter, education, and medicine, has nearly tripled over a decade. Our per capita income in 2023 was about US$ 3900, compared with Vietnam’s US$ 4265, Malaysia’s US$12090, Singapore’s US$ 65,422, and Japan’s US$ 33,825. Another aspect is that 298,000 people left Sri Lanka in 2023, the majority of them due to poverty and unemployment. I just indicated the top of the iceberg of the socio-economic problems or sufferings of the people in the country or finally; people are forced to pay for such harmful decisions and choices, bitter politics of which is the mirror image of what is happening in the economy,

The people’s misery in the Post-Aragalaya is a reality in many ways, for most politicians and political parties are in dead silence. At the same time, the government fears the nation raising lousy questions such as “Do you want to go back to queues again?” which is a massive insult to helpless and innocent people. In short, politicians created queues by collapsing the economy, and no queues meant borrowing continuously, selling public assets, and imposing an unprecedented tax burden on the people, so no queues meant an illusion. Sri Lanka will be a prosperous country in 2048, which is another illusion only, along with “Vitas of Prosperity and Splendour” that people were blindly caught again by the Rajapaksa family in 2019. Indeed, it was a massive shame for the people to believe and accept cunning and crafty politicians and their parties.

Given the above, the pathway is such that the new generation related to Aragalaya wants to ensure a safe and secure future for their children and grandchildren because the Aragalaya generation knows well what has gone wrong with the Sri Lankan economy, which was only second to Japan in development indicators in 1948. The misery in the country has been due to short-sighted, selfish, egotistical, self-centered, power-hungry politicians and their baseless and wrong economic policies, programs, projects, and activities. In short, selfish and blindfolded politicians made harmful decisions that destroyed the economy and the people’s lives.

Parth to the Economic Recovery and Foundation for a Stable and Sustainable Economy

For Sri Lanka to be on par with developed countries is a long-term team goal or a vision because of the economy’s current status, which is still unstable because the essential macroeconomic variables such as price level and exchange rate are unstable. Government revenue is increasing, but domestic public debt is also growing. New taxes may be on the way soon. The surplus in the primary account is not the matter because the overall budget deficit is the matter. After all, 80% of the government revenue is required to pay the outstanding loan interest, which has been a burning issue. Foreign exchange reserves of about US$6 billion can be compared to the total foreign debt of about USD$55 billion.

Some positive signs are decreasing trends in interest rates and consolidated growth rates.  However, these need to be translated into benefits to alleviate the massive sufferings of the households, but that translation cannot be seen at all. On the other hand, economic growth has been reported to be 2.2% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, according to the World Bank. According to the Asian Development Bank’s forecast, the economic growth figures will be 1.9% and 2,5%, respectively. Given the unstable situation, a substantial economic recovery, at least during the pre-COVID period, would lay the foundation for permissive recovery. For the above, it is essential to indicate that Sri Lanka needs to achieve a minimum of 7 percent economic growth, as targeted by the UN’s Agenda 2030. Given the above, it would be good if the country could achieve at least 3.5% percent economic growth in 2024 and 2025. It is worth indicating that the 7%, as mentioned above, economic growth is inclusive and sustainable, where all who are willing and committed to productive work find work and contribute to the country’s production process while securing income simultaneously. In other words, it is the combination of labor, land, capital, and entrepreneurship, along with adding value such as wages, rent, interest, and profit in the production process or economic growth, that is the foundation in the context of a hugely underutilized resource economy, mainly the mineral sector.     

For the production process mentioned above, the private sector’s participation and contribution is equally important as that of the public sector. By creating and providing a business-friendly environment together and having a regularity framework where it is fundamental, the private sector will become the prime mover of economic growth, generating tax income and earning foreign exchange for the government in many ways. The government must work with the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce regarding the above. The government has to play a vital role in critical sectors like education, health, and agriculture. Regarding the above, the role of monetary and fiscal policies is vital. The interest rate should be investment-friendly and efficient, and the effectiveness of the government tax regime should accommodate the above or ensure no crowding out effect. There is a great need to assess the above in the context of foreign debt sustainability, in which the outcome of foreign trade plays a fundamental role.

The main objective of foreign trade is, based on local value addition, to maximize export earnings while minimizing import costs where possible and required. Closely working with the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and encouraging FDI by providing all facilities as needed by FDI, the gradual accumulation of foreign exchange is feasible and realistic. Regarding the above tourism promotion and development, remittance from the “Rata Viruwan” will play a vital role in helping repay the restructured foreign debt as early as possible without passing such debt to the next generation. Along with the above, if there is a great need for foreign borrowing, it must be done only at low interest rates and long repayment periods, not jeopardy the committed debt repayment programs. Given the severe poverty indicators and urgent welfare improvement, the government can formulate projects for grant funding. It would make a significant difference if Sri Lanka could tap at least 500,000 diasporas of 3 million productively and strategically. This means there is a great need for the diaspora to be part and parcel of economic growth and development in the country. in short, diaspora does not mean funds alone are a massive source of help regarding materials, expertise, advice, knowledge, etc.

Where it Failed, However, Must Win for the Future

The bitter politics mentioned at the beginning portray the country well as a direction or perpetuate the unsatisfactory situation. As stated, that political bitterness has not been confined to the last few weeks alone.  It has a history. Sri Lanka gained independence after about  150 years of British domination. Following the above, the Sri Lanka ship was caught by the “Family” or “Walawwa”  or Green and Blue Somalian Pirates or the same group of corrupt politicians that made the country bankrupt. This is the naked truth. In other words, in the past, politically illiterate people followed the politicians like slaves, while money, materials, jobs, status, and other short-term benefits were bribes.

People born in 1948 or the 1950s and still surviving can judge things well by how corrupt politicians have robbed them as people are still poor, and the politicians, their families, and close associates are wealthy and well-protected, which is the reality on the ground. Also, the economic policies of the West, liberal, neo-liberal, socialist, or communist, are not a matter at all. For Aragalaya, the country was united, and a peaceful demonstration was not the outcome of queues for many essential things, skyrocketing prices, and massive hardships people faced. The seeds of unhappiness and disappointment with the governing system were sown long ago, and various forms of uprisings and communal disturbances were seen accordingly. The above vividly indicates the great need to “transform” the country from an underdeveloped political status towards a developed one. Transformation means a complete change in the content and the direction to meet the people’s expectations, for which 76 years have been too late. However, the peaceful Aragalaya failed to achieve the above-mentioned transformation for many reasons.  After two years of Aragalaya, the next presidential election on 21 September 2024 must accomplish the transformation democratically and peacefully for a safe and secure country for all to live peacefully and in harmony. If the people failed to reach the above, the Somalian pirates or corrupt politicians would forever occupy the country and government. The above is the burning issue that the country faces towards the presidential election on 21 September 2024.

The Role of NPP and its Leadership for the Transformation

Rescuing the country and people from the Somalian pirates or corrupt politicians is necessary, or it cannot be postponed; today, people are well equipped with the required weapons of ()i) political literacy, (ii) knowledge, (iii) sensitivity, and (iv) deep understanding, which are essential for rescue operations. People or voters cannot be bribed this time with anything except the group reality of misery people face. Given the above, the environment is amply accommodating for the required transformation. The next and foremost is that the country needs a leader representing the people’s vision for a better transformation. That leader cannot be found in the group of corrupt politicians in the context of bitter politics indicated at the beginning. One and only, the NPP leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), is not related to that “Family” or that “Walawa” or “Generation”; that is one of his excellent qualifications to be the leader. He is a leader who emerged from the grassroots. His clean hands are well known to the rest of the world. He or his fellow politicians have not robbed even a cent, so they have not accumulated assets/properties. Even in the parliament, his integrity, honesty, transparency, and credibility have not been questioned. He possesses a down-to-life character and is transparent, accountable, and credible, always walking the talk. AKD is a leader who puts the country and people first and foremost throughout, committed to communal harmony and unity of Sri Lanka with one country and one law, where people live peacefully with due respect.

A future NPP government faces two main challenges. First, people expect some degree of relief from the unbearable cost of living. Some tax reductions will undoubtedly help with essential items. Effective tax administration and compliance will compensate for deprived tax revenue. Along with the above, the grievances of the trade unions must be addressed and resolved amicably and constructively by ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. Problems in the health and education sectors are top priorities. Only if critically essential will slashing unnecessary expenditures help with the above; parallel to the above, the government must be strategic and insightful in repaying foreign debt and commit to working closely with the IMF and other development partners.

*The writer worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand.