By Kumar David –

Prof. Kumar David

The JVP/NPP has launched an all-out campaign in the run-up to the Presidential election due in October 2024. There has been a flurry of seminars, public meetings and international visits by Anura. A sample can be found in the pages of Colombo Telegraph: “NPP a reformed mature movement”; “NPP the unrivalled choice”; “An election like no other” are articles on the Colombo Telegraph website. Some pieces are sugar-highs, others balanced. The talk in 3-wheelers and among my contacts (not all leftists) is “We have given all the others a chance, now let’s give these buggers a break”. Young people, clearly, are motivated.

Nevertheless, what are the nagging worries in people’s minds? The three big concerns in increasing degree of importance in the mind of the Sinhala electorate, (1) Will minority communities vote for the in JVP/NPP in a presidential election or will refrain and undercut the chances. (2) Will the JVP resume its bad old insurrectionary habits and will we ever get democratic elections again. And (3) is a concealed and insidious concern: Does the JVP/NPP have what it takes to pull SL out of an economic mire in an IMF dominated global trade dependent economic world. One connected matter is that if Ranil and Sajith get their acts together in some format, the combo is likely to perform very well.

To take these concerns one by one, my guess is that the Tamils (Ceylon and Up-country), the Muslims and the Catholics will, in substantial majority not vote for the JVP/NPP for the simple reason of historical memory. There is nothing of significance in the JVP’s past record to persuade these ethnic and religious minorities that the JVP will assuage their worries. Above that I understand that Ranil’s campaign in the North (Jaffna Hospital expansion, land grants to Tamils in the Kilinochchi area) and unconcealed support for Ranil by overseas Tamils, will undermine minority support for the JVP. And the JVP/NPP, has to its shame, not endorsed the 13-th Amendment to the Constitution.

In respect of item (2) I am persuaded that the situation is not gloomy. The JVP cannot resume the insanity of the Wijeweera era nor repeat the irresponsibility of the 1989-90 period. I am not worried about an embargo on elections nor the ability to change governments by democratic methods. The country will go up in flames if anyone attempts to withdraw free elections. This is not to give anyone a blank cheque but the world has changed a lot and the fascist option has suffered setbacks. (See last three concluding paragraphs however).

Question 3 is the tricky one. The view that Ranil pulled the country out of a crisis created by petrol queues, gas shortages and even middle-class people begging for just a bowl of rice not long ago, is not uncommon. Crafty RW is cashing in on this and expects the floating vote to back him. I have noticed that that at the grassroots, people feel that this may be so. RW’s gung-ho attitude “come what may I will damn well go ahead with the Presidential election”, helps this. The tricky question is whether people at the grassroots admire the pluck of the JVP and Anura but harbour reservation that the task of rescuing Lanka from its economic sickness is beyond the comrades’ ability. Lanka’s masses represent a pretty conflicted society at this time. The JVP/NPP machine is on an all-out campaign to dispel these doubts. It will be good if it succeeds.

I have in a previous piece made the comment that the hard-core Sinhala-Buddhist UNP voter is very pro-Sajith. I do not conceal that that I do not like Sajith for just this reason. Nevertheless, Sajith is the darling of the hardcore Sinhala-Buddhist voter who prefers him to Westernised Ranil. This remains an uncertain issue in the run up to the presidential election. (If Sajith and Ranil get together on a common ticket, who gets what post is less important, the alliance is probably unbeatable).

Another intriguing question is the future of the Executive Presidency (EP). If either RW or Sajith secures the presidency in October the experiences of Sri Lanka prompt the thought that the bloke will attempt to hang on to it. Mahinda went so far as to try to turn SL into a de-facto dictatorship in perpetuity. Nearly all the MPS in the current parliament were vermin who supported this attempt to abandon democracy for ever and ever. What more is there to say about these Sri Jayawardena maggots? To come to the point the gymnastics pertaining to the future of EP will be a constitutional jinx for a long time.

Anura is the one candidate among the three frontrunners who is relatively free of this curse. Ridding Lanka of EP is a revolutionary step. To those who fear that an Anura presidency foreshadows abrogation of democracy, I previously said, the JVP cannot resume the insanity of the Wijeweera era nor repeat the 1989-90 madness. I am not worried about the JVP/NPP imposing an embargo on the freedom to change governments. Anura is the only one among the frontrunners whose grassroots encourage revolutionary experiments. Abolishing EP therefore may not be a dream beyond the nation’s eventual reach.

I have sometimes been asked “What will the Rajapaksa bandwagon do?” Whether Mahinda commands some 10%-plus of the national vote or not, I find it difficult to imagine he will field an SLPP candidate and expose the feebleness the SLPP. He is also unlikely to throw his support behind the JVP. In a three-cornered (Anura, Sajith, Ranil) contest he will have to choose between Sajith and Ranil. But Sajith is the leader of the opposition to his (current) government so does it mean that, perhaps grudgingly he will back Ranil? Right now, in a formal sense, Ranil is his presidential nominee. This is all speculative and a three-cornered contest means that Sajith and Ranil are stupid enough as to fail to form an alliance of some form. This is premature speculation as nominations for the presidency have not yet been called.

A new development on the global, or at least the European scene, is the dramatic rise of the far-right in the last few months. I will give you just one projection to convey the flavour of what is happening. In France the average projection, rounded off, is that the Far Right (Marine Le Pen etc) will poll about 35% in the parliamentary (National Assembly) elections to be held in June, the Combined Left about 25% and the Centre, loyal to President Emmanuel Macron, about 15% – give or take 3% on each number. Le Pan’s far-right is vigorously courting the middle-class vote and preparing to form the next French government.

In Israel Netanyahu and the Jewish ultra-right is determined to wipe the Palestinian people off the face of the earth (40,000 have already been killed in Gaza) in a genocidal campaign in collaboration with America’s “Genocide Joe” and fulfil the Lord God’s promise of the Promised Land to the Israelites. Opium by the truck load to religious folk!   

At the same time the globe is ever more sharply dividing between the global south (BRICS for example) and the ‘Asian Century’, the exemplary nation is China. Russia, Vietnam and North Korea are lining up along this axis. More about the implications of this some other time.