20 November, 2019

Blog

Gotabaya’s Victory Assured?

By S. I. Keethaponcalan

Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan

On October 9, 2019, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) formally announced that it would support Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the candidate of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), for president. The decision seems to have sealed the outcome of the election in favor of Gotabaya. More, on this later. 

Sirisena Conundrum 

The decision was made after a prolonged struggle within the SLFP. The party had been grappling with the question, how to approach the presidential election, ever since it became clear that an SLFP candidate cannot win. President Sirisena was negotiating with the SLPP to convince the party to accept him as the common candidate of the new alliance. The SLPP did exceptionally well in the 2018 local authority elections. Hence, the Rajapaksa faction was confident and did not concede. 

As an alternative, Sirisena strived to secure the prime minister position in the anticipated new government headed by the SLPP. That also failed. Eventually, the SLFP decided to demand a symbolic change. It wanted to change Gotabaya’s election symbol from lotus to a neutral figure. That was also rejected.  

Now, the SLFP has extended unconditional support to Gotabaya for president. Hence, one cannot be wrong in characterizing the SLFP’s current position as total surrender. The policy decision has led to the notion that the SLFP will cease to be one of the premier political parties in Sri Lanka. Yet, one has to wait and see as future prospects of the SLFP depend on the nature of post-election relations between the SLFP and the SLPP. One also has to keep an eye on the moves of the Bandaranaike family to make conclusions about the fate of the SLFP.        

Nevertheless, the SLFP and the SLPP have agreed on specific arrangements regarding the parliamentary election, which will follow the presidential election. President Sirisena’s decision to remain neutral and relinquish leadership of the SLFP will not impact how the SLFPers will vote on November 16. At the same time, it won’t be surprising if he gets into the fray and campaign. In the last five years, Sirisena has proved that he cannot be predicted.  

Gotabaya and SLFP

It seems the SLPP has about 45 percent national votes. In the 2015 presidential election, Mahinda Rajapaksa, the current leader of the SLPP polled 47.58 percent of nationwide votes. The party polled 44.65 of the total national votes in the 2018 local authority election. Therefore, it is safe to assume that the SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa has a vote bank consisting of about 45 percent national votes. A candidate needs 50 percent national votes plus one vote to win the election. Therefore, when Gotabaya’s name was announced, he was five percent votes short to reach the target. 

The SLFP and its allies won 13 percent of the national votes in the 2018 local authority elections. Therefore, one can assume that the SLFP on its own has about a ten percent vote base. Members and supports of the SLFP will find it easy to vote for Gotabaya and the SLPP-led alliance because until recently, the SLFP and Rajapaksa group were not two different entities. Mahinda Rajapaksa and his family were longtime members of the SLFP and have held offices on behalf of the party. It is Sirisena’s ascendancy that influenced the Rajapaksa family’s exit from the SLFP. One can argue that Rajapaksa perhaps is a more popular personality within the SLFP than Sirisena. 

Hence, when the SLFP campaigns for Gotabaya, almost all SLFP votes will automatically go to the SLPP candidate. The SLFP’s decision to support the SLPP-led alliance will deliver about 55 percent votes, more than enough to win the election, to Gotabaya Rajapaksa.  

Sajith’s Failure

In a recent essay titled, “Sri Lanka: State of the Presidential Race,” I pointed out that in order to win, Sajith Premadasa needs to (1) get President Sirisena’s endorsement, (2) get Anura Kumara Dissanayake to withdraw from the race, and (3) get the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) support. 

Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) received 4.87, 6.27, and six percent votes in the 2015 parliamentary election, 2018 local authority election, and October 2019 Elpitiya Pradeshiya Saba (regional council) election, respectively. Hence, one may assume that the party has about five to six percent national votes.  

Sajith Premadasa should have tried hard to get Dissanayake to withdraw from the race with adequate incentives. The JVP’s six percent votes would be crucial to reach the 50 percent mark. Perhaps moves are underway to engage Dissanayake. However, publicly available information does not suggest that Sajith faction is negotiating with Dissanayake or the JVP. Moreover, now it is little too late to get the JVP to withdraw as the Dissanayake campaign is in full swing. 

Sajith Premadasa’s failure to get Sirisena’s support and motivate JVP to withdraw from the race takes about 60 percent votes (SLPP’s 45 +SLFP’s 10 +JVP’s 5) from the equation. 

The TNA, which supported the UNP-led coalition candidate (Sirisena) last time, has not made up its mind about the presidential election. The party, a proxy of the UNP, has announced that it will engage all candidates and make a decision in due course. Supporting one or the other major candidate is the only option the TNA has as it has not nominated anybody from the party to contest. Theoretically, it could boycott the election or stay neutral. 

A number of Tamil parties, including the TNA, Wigneswaran’s Tamil Makkal Koottany (TMK), and Suresh Premachandran’s EPRLF, agreed to adopt a common approach vis-a-vis the presidential election. It is not clear what this ad hoc alliance will achieve given the limited options available to the Tamils.    

Nonetheless, conventional wisdom is that the TNA will eventually endorse the UNP candidate directly or indirectly. Even if the TNA and Tamils in the North-East ultimately support Sajith Premadasa, he will be working with only about 40 percent votes, which is insufficient to win the election. 

Fear of Militarism 

Despite the problematic electoral arithmetic, Sajith Premadasa’s campaign continues with considerable enthusiasm. His inaugural campaign rally in Colombo drew large crowds. It seems Sajith faction believes that fear of militarism under Gotabaya would encourage Sinhala voters to vote for Premadasa. 

The effective termination of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 bestowed Gotabaya, the image of a military strongman. In the immediate postwar period, he retained a tight grip on the Sri Lankan society. Moreover, the Rajapaksa government from 2005 to 15 was considered highly authoritarian. These factors could ignite a sense of fear about a future under Gotabaya Rajapaksa. 

However, would it discourage a vast majority of the Sinhala voters from voting for Gotabaya? Highly unlikely. According to a survey undertaken in 2011, 69.9 percent of the Sinhala people believed that the country was “most democratic” under Rajapaksa rule[1]. Therefore, Rajapaksa voters may not view concerns about democracy as a legitimate problem. The possible defections may not be enough to take Premadasa to the finishing line.  

Therefore, barring any significant unanticipated incidents or changes from now to November 16, Gotabaya is more likely to win the presidential election with about 55 percent of votes.

[1]Center for Policy Alternatives. 2011. Survey on Democracy in Post-War Sri Lanka. Colombo: CPA. p.4.  https://cpalanka.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Democracy-in-Post-War-SL-Top-Line-Report.pdf

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Latest comments

  • 24
    14

    Finally a CT article that makes sense!

    And now will come the howls of protests!!!🙉

    • 31
      22

      Sajith will win this election most probably.

      • 14
        10

        Mohd

        Live in that dream Mohmad, you have 25 days of that comfortable life.

        • 8
          5

          Real Revolutionist

          “you have 25 days of that comfortable life” – Is that a warning on the danger country is facing? What I have said is based on my own analytics, and I am a JVP supporter.

    • 16
      2

      Words,
      Your words make sense b’cos the essay fans your bias. You are not necessarily wrong for there are many die-hard Ra..kse loyalists who wish if GoRa could win by any mean possible and become a dictator afterwards. The thinking behind is quite innocent looking and it contains some logic as well: “I can get my wishes including destroying my personal enemies under my dictator”! People like you fail to realize the fact that, it is not the dictator who come with weapons; it is the police, military and most likely some other militia who have their own personal goals like free meal, free drink, free women or if at higher level, kidnapping for blackmail as the Navy had done!

      About the statistics cited in the essay, all I can say is that statistics are only as good as the analyst, whether they favor any particular bias or not. For example, is their any sense in separating SLFP votes from SLPP when we know for certain that, perhaps with the exception of P’naruwa district, they both were in MaRa’s bag in 2015? Also, do we know how many of SLFP loyalists are turning against GoRa this time? Another uncertainty factor ii evaluating 2018 PS statistics lies in the fact that those numbers contain angry UNP voters who are now supporting Sajith.

      Therefore, I believe that the crucial factor in this election is how the JVP votes. I believe that it will be JVP votes that decide the margin of the victory for either the candidates. I don’t expect the JVP to exit from the contest b’cos they don’t care who wins. As a matter of fact, they would prefer a GoRa victory! That is b’cos they are more certain of GoRa’s failure than of UNP’s.

      • 4
        2

        ………continued.
        Like vultures take commotion as an indicator for an opportunity for food, failing Gvts also mean opportunities for Marxists like JVP. After all, isn’t that they are predicting all the time? I came to this conclusion about JVP’s strategy based on their own statements. For example, in an interview at Derana 360, KDL’kantha confirmed in no uncertain words that their goal is to take away votes from two major sides irrespective of who may win. Kumar David, in a statistical analysis published in TC, also said that their target is maximum of 20% of votes. Therefore, I believe that it will be a waste of time & energy to try to get JVP out of the contest. The better strategy would be to target others in the NPPM who are truly concerned about GoRa’s victory.

    • 13
      1

      Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan,

      RE: Gotabaya’s Victory Assured?

      “Therefore, barring any significant unanticipated incidents or changes from now to November 16, Gotabaya is more likely to win the presidential election with about 55 percent of votes.”

      This is the case if the SLFP and SLPP voters will vote for Gotabaya, with Enthusiasm, despite his past history.. The big question is will they? While their mean IQ is 79, there are still many left with common sense and intelligence. Suppose you Suppose you the assumption that 90% of those who voted for SLPP will vote for Gota, and that only 50% of the SLFP voters, not so enthusiastic, will vote for Gotabaya.

      Then Gotabaya wiil get :

      SLPP: 45%x0.9 =40.5%
      SLFP : 10%x0.5 =5.0%

      Total for Gota = 45.5%

      If 95% of SLPP voters votes for Gota , and 75% of SLFP votes for Gota:

      SLPP: 45%x0.95 = 42.75%
      SLFP: 10% x 0.75 = 7.5%

      Total: 50.25%

      Sajith Premadsa is promoting Sararth Fonseka, for security, who was the real hero in defeating the LTTE. Besides Sajith is a Sinhala Buddhist, and his father was a Sinhala Buiddhist president.

      So, depending on the case, the range for Gotabaya can be between 45.5% and 55%.

      On the other hand, Gotabaya may even poll less than 40% , depending on the maturity, wisdom and intelligence of the voters. The actual numbers will tel.

  • 25
    5

    They made same predictions in the last PE as well but we said MR would loose, in spit of their tremendous muscle and money power plus with their absolute hold and use of state machineries, and at last it happened. This time too same maths is working. Main factor is – when the majority Sinhalese votes get diluted among 35 candidates, the one who gets the highest number of minority votes, wins it all. Minorities would never vote for Gota, and it all would go to Sajith. Also they wouldn’t get all SLFP votes for it too fractured, in pieces, and lot of it would go to Sajith

    • 3
      17

      MR lost last time primarily because of a major split within the party. That will not be the case this time though CBK might take some SLFP votes away from Gotabaya.

      • 3
        2

        Hela,

        While Gotabaya deserted the Army, and left for America , even giving up the Sri Lankan Citizenship, like a Traitor, Sarath Fonseka and Sajith Premadasa, stayed put and addressed the challenges as best as they could.

        Those voters who will vote for Gotabaya are real morons and imbeciles, in keeping up with their low mean IQ of 79.

    • 6
      0

      SLFP protest votes would go to SP. Imagine if CBK comes down to support SP. (By the time SP would have promised a beach in Nuwara Eliya)

      What are the reasons people would support Gota? 1.MR 2.National Security 3.Protect Sinhala Buddhists 4. Nationalist? 5. UNP’s mess is in fresh memory while MR’s is forgotten

      All except #5 are deception.

    • 2
      0

      I think this guy keethaponchalan said on CT Mahinda cannot win in 2015.

      https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/can-mahinda-rajapaksa-win-again/

  • 12
    11

    Though I hate to say this , In reality, this writer,s prediction may come true. When numbers are added simple math seems to be right. It may be +/- 1 to 4 %, but Gotha may cross 50% easily , courtesy JVP and splitting of all anti Gotha votes . Rajapaksa,s votes are secure and real. What ever added to it will be bonus. And this time there will be enough to cross the mark.

    • 2
      2

      Dear Chiv,
      .
      I’d also hate the result, but I fear that I have to agree with you on the result, but not with your logic.
      .
      Don’t blame the JVP.
      If more than 50% vote for Gota (the reality is that he’ll get only First Preferences) then he’s won the same way that candidates in the previous seven elections have – by being acceptable to a majority of the voters.
      .
      It doesn’t matter how the “fewer than 50%” have got divided. All blame must go to the Yahapalanaya Government which we got elected at great personal risk in January 2015. Tamil and Muslim area turnout between 65 and 75% was more than satisfactory; Let’s hope it will be as good this year, but I fear that my pious wishes won’t help.
      .
      https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/presidential-election-the-truth-about-the-ulfs-stand/
      .
      A good many comments on the statistics there. I’ll place some more on the latest developments there, in a few hours.

      • 0
        0

        Preferential Voting System is not suitable for Sri Lanka!

  • 19
    6

    your maths and equation is wrong. Because, SLFP votes are divided. None of true SLFP will vote for SLPP. because some core SLFP like that of CKB and others are working against Gota. Moreover, Educated people will never vote to Gota for his past blunders and mass killings. personally too play a role as well. He will get some good percentage of Sinhalese votes. but not as you predicted.

    Minority will never vote Gota. Tamils with any self -respect will never vote for Him after all genocides he committed. Upcountry Tamils too will not do that. Only Dr Hisbullah and his gangs will vote for him.
    so my predication is 43% for Gota.
    47% for Sajith and 10 for all others.

  • 25
    2

    Wonder how many may have predicted MS would win in 2015? (wonder who may have predicted Trump would win in 2016?). So it may be foolhardy, imprudent and audacious to make such predictions in the absence of proven, dependable and reliable polls. There may be many unpredictable factors that may drive the final result.

    I’d conservatively say, let’s wait for November 17, to see the result (crowds at meetings may not be a true indicator on how the wind is blowing e.g. 2015 election). But my hope and prayer is that the voters, in their wisdom, will select a young, energetic, fit and healthy proven Politician with no baggage and skeletons in his cupboard, to lead the nation. May the Nation get the Leader they deserve! Voters please use your franchise wisely!

    • 22
      3

      Do we need a President who is so Unhealthy that he has to go running to Singapore for Treatment?

      • 4
        1

        People are too sure there won’t be a US – SL war, so they vote for Gota. Otherwise, in such a situation, Gota has promised to act against SL and support US.

      • 9
        0

        Trips to Singapore were not to get treatment for heart condition or for health reasons but to delay the court cases until the presidential election is held. Can’t you see through that?

        • 2
          0

          Estate Labourer:-
          I certainly can See Through that!
          But a Man who has to Run Away in Fear, to avoid Court Cases, is not Suitable as a President for Sri Lanka!

    • 3
      12

      MS won mainly because of the major split within the party and en bloc Tamil & Muslim vote. MR won rest of the country with 200k majority while lost N&E by 600k. Can it be repeated this time? Highly unlikely.

    • 1
      2

      Gamini,

      Your response is not scientific. It is partly driven by what you wish,, and partly coloured by your inaccurate understanding about predictions. Dr. K only said that it is more likely that GR will win. He is absolutely right about that, and will remain right about that even if it does not happen. Because what he means is something like “there is a 60% chance GR will win, and there is 40% chance SP will win”. Now, since the chances of SP winning are not nill, it is an outcome that can still happen, see? So, post-fact, if the 40% outcome eventuates and the 60% outcome did not eventuate, it does NOT mean that the prediction is wrong. The prediction simply means that if there are 100 parallel universes, in 60 of them GR would win. It cannot be tested by a single instance. Now of course if Dr. K had said “there is NO chance for a SP victory” such a statement can be tested post-fact. But he had not said that.

      Think of an example. You throw a dice. I say that “it is more likely that you will get a number less than five”. You end up getting six. Does that mean I was wrong? No. Any child knows that the probability of getting a number less than 5 is 4/6 (2/3 or 66%), so it was a likely outcome. That statement does not become wrong even if it did not happen on that single occurance.

      Think from your head. Right now, a GR victory is the more likely outcome, as Dr. K said. Better to prepare for it, rather than indulge in wishful thinking. If you are involved in the SP campaign effort, by all means do your best. But do not live with a fool’s hope, though sometimes they do materialize.

  • 15
    0

    Although a gloomy outcome is staring at our face, the love for democracy could still play its part. The fear we had of MR ransacking the nation hasn’t all disappeared. Sirisena’s defection helped no doubt, but those who defected with him have not all surrendered like him. A faint hope for Democracy still prevails. GR may never know what hit him!

  • 3
    10

    Hansaya received maximum number of votes from North, East and upcountry in 2015 presidential election. Since that time current government has been doing really badly. Support for TNA and CMC has decreased since.. The difference is the majority Sinhalese ( Buddhists+ Catholics). They will vote for GOTA.
    Sinhalese concern about security of this country. It is not hard to predict the winner right now. Do the maths.

  • 4
    0

    One can estimate and guesstimate possible results. All that is of no value if the value for human life is demeaned. I have said many times that none of the main candidates and those from a military background do not offer any hope in this regard. Fundamentally they do not offer space for a different point of view and the extreme that they can go to against an opposition is unimaginable. At the cost of repetition I do not offer much hope for a good human rights record after the elections.

  • 10
    0

    If in 2011, 69.9 percent of the Sinhala people believed that the country was “most democratic” under Rajapaksa rule, why were they voted out in 2015?

    • 8
      0

      Sharmini Serasinghe

      Is this going to be another failed “Operation Jayasikurui” ( Certain Victory) by the single handed retired as well as serving generals?

    • 1
      4

      Sharmini Serasinghe

      Strong charges of corruption & misappropriation levelled against Rajapakses diverted votes to a common candidate but they’re probably back this time due to the failure of GG to prosecute them & most importantly that GG was exposed through CB bond scam.

      People don’t have an alternative @ least for the time being. The winning presidential candidate should be backed by a strong parliament too for a kind of stability so AKD as a choice is foiled.

    • 3
      0

      My Dear Sharmini,

      Remember Mara’s quote from 2015 Elections..

      Known Devil is better than the Unknown Evil..

      We all know who the devil and the evil is here.

    • 1
      0

      Poor Sharmini needs to be reminded the Rajapakses had a majority in the Sinhala south. It is the en bloc votes of Tamils/Muslims that ousted them in 2015, in addition to the split inside SLFP.

      • 2
        0

        thamizh

        What is your point if there is one that Sharmini/we are unaware of?
        What’s wrong with Tamils/Muslims en bloc voting?
        Are you implying like the warmonger Dayan that the minorities shouldn’t be allowed to vote in Presidential elections?

        • 1
          0

          nv, can’t help if you are missing the point. rajapakese’s ousting in 2015 had very little to do with democracy as the ilk of sharmini claim. they still had the majority support among the sinhalese contrary to what sharmini implies. tamil/muslim en bloc vote was not driven by an urge to restore ‘democracy’ in sri lanka, rather post-war politics.

          • 2
            0

            thamizh

            “tamil/muslim en bloc vote was not driven by an urge to restore ‘democracy’ in sri lanka, rather post-war politics.”

            Please explain to us what you mean by post/pre war politics.

  • 6
    1

    “Therefore, barring any significant unanticipated incidents or changes from now to November 16, Gotabaya is more likely to win the presidential election with about 55 percent of votes.”
    Are you sure of this Dr. Keethaponcala because I am sure what will “barr” Nandasena Gonnpart closer to the election day when the Americans have strategically planned to drop the bombshell and prove that GR as a contestant will be null and void to contest this election? Meanwhile, don’t you have to worry of your own troubles in your American back yard of another crazed General and NUTJOB named William Barr when this bastard Attorney General will be disbarred for his own cover ups and follies?

  • 2
    5

    Mr Sampathar’s new 13 Demands to Nandasena along with the Hindian 13 A pretty much wrote off any Vellala Support to SLPP.

    In contrast , Sampathar and his TNA mates not only didn’t present their demands to Keslwatta Kid , but also keep mum about Keselwatta Kid’s rantings about how his Presidency is going to make Buddhism Number One as well as keep Lankawe in One Piece. I mean a Unitary State.

    It makes me wonder whether Keselwatta Kid is fair dinkum ..
    Or has the new UNP PM Dr Ranil of President Keselwatta Kid’s Regime given an Iron Clad guarantee that he will deliver Mr Sampathar’s new Demands..

    If Sira was made the Candidate, .even Dr Ranil would have walked in with 51% of the Vote , as our patriotic SLPP supporters would have cast Donkey Votes en masse or stayed home..

    Instead of the traditional Haves and Have nots this Contest of the Century has now become really interesting with the Elite Party offering more frees bees to our Dalits than the Dalits Party itself.

    Again I have my doubts about those Free Bees coming from Keselwatta Kid because the real force after the 16th will be non other than Dr Ranil as the new 19 A PM.
    And same dudes now in the Cabinet will be calling the shots and pulling the purse strings..

    But Keselwatta Kid has made this even more interesting with his own UNP supporters Booing Dr Ranil every time Dr Ranil, takes the Microphone.

    After the SLFP Pin Up Boy Jayasekera finally caved in and broke up the Party and upset the Whiskey Madam who came all the way from London, I thought the Madam will mount the stage with the Cousin Dr Ranil, to give Plugs for Keselwatta Kid.

  • 1
    0

    We need an analysis on previous votes. But thje personal factot has to be allowed for. Independent opinion polls could fill this void. This could be on a district basis. A questionaire on what the leaders stand for is important as well as what people think about the track records. Care should be taken on the opinion pollers belief. This polls should contine as new data comes in. universuity dons and news paper anylists should participate as well as neutral obsertvers.

  • 2
    0

    No doubt GR has the finances to hire international election campaign managers to lay out the strategy for his campaign success. In fact, in a sting operation by Channel 4 News in UK recently to expose the unethical doings of such a ‘market research & analysis’ provider, ‘Cambridge Analytica’, which claims to have spearheaded Trump’s campaign, used SL as the bait, playing the part of a ‘well connected SL political family’ & Cambridge Analytica, obviously after doing their homework on SL, were caught on camera boasting of their dirty tricks bag of surprises (allegedly proven in Africa) as to how they will conduct the campaign. Whether dirty tricks are involved or not, it indicates that international PR companies have set their eyes on little SL as sources of lucrative income & its no secret that the Rajapakse regime used these companies to even write their speeches. So in my humble opinion, the GR campaign is streets ahead compared to the opposition. Whether GR is going to stick to his manifesto promises is another question but he is there to wipe the slate clean of all evidence of mismanagement, abuse of power, massive scale corruption & even murder by the Rajapakse regime. Furthermore, we will have all those undesirables with allegations of corruption & murder, not to mention incompetence, coming out of the wood work. Internationally, Rajapakses have no respect, unless the US decides to buy out GR for their strategic gain in the Indian ocean to counter Chinese dominance, SL is unlikely to benefit from Western aid & investment. That leave SL begging for Chinese funding at commercial rates & with the spiralling debt, a future unofficial Chinese colony, controlled by China like Hong Kong & Tibet with the puppet Rajapakse dynasty in the foreseeable future. Quite a frightening thought.

    Alternatively, Premadasa jnr, riding on his old mans unsustainable, flawed short term vision & pandering to the Buddhist village vote, has nothing to offer to compliment his acclaimed LSE & expensive British education. The voters have a Hobson’s choice indeed,

    • 0
      1

      Do theses voters cared about Sri lanka or cared about themselves? Do these voters know these people who they vote for? If these voters knows how to vote, how come Sri lanka have gone through dictatorship problem since 1970s?. Spending time on discussing theses matters over and over is waste of time.
      And now is time take rights away from these people or Sri lanka will be gone on to the hand of foreigners very soon.
      Voter system only for Western countries. This system do not fit into every part of the world.
      even it does not fit into Europe anymore. dictatorship of European union was created by smuggling foreign fake refugees and refugees terrorist and giving them right to vote.
      So who conspire against Europe under these fraudulent vote system?
      I do not need to go detail about it, but Europe have military power. However, military power won’t help if immigrant population increased and go by voting power. European Christian will become minority. that is what some group want. Still Europe have all power need to meet any threat, but under these voting system, Sinhalese end will achieve by themselves and world will celebrate it

  • 5
    5

    At the LGE 2018, the following preferences were obtained :

    Pohottuwa 40%
    UNF 29%
    UPFA/SLFP 12%
    JVP 06%
    TNA 03%
    Other 09%

    If Pohottuwa succeeds in attracting at least 75% of the UPFA/SLFP voters, it has an excellent chance of exceeding the magic figure of 50%
    Even if Sajith wins the support of ALL the other voters (except the JVP’s 6%), he will only achieve a score of around 45%

    Is it still possible to defeat GR ?

  • 0
    0

    Wew hqave to use IT to win. GR has a lot resources on the ground. A large number of politicians are with him. He needs funds to cordinate the operation. This shoud be like a miltary operation. Computer programs should be design3ed to give the best use o0f resources. Media coverage is essential. Fund collection is needed. Adjusting a program like material Resources planing and lineadre program may have to be done. Watching Maharajas may be necesary. let us see our oppostions plans and moves.

  • 6
    0

    Mr Keethaponkalan,
    Your prediction based on 2015 election and 2018 Local government elections cannot be considered as a scientific method to predict this election. You have not considered the personality factor, historical trend factor etc. Mahinda Rajapakse’s personality do not match with Gotabaya. Further Gotabaya do not have negotiating skills, oratory skill, and do not have public relationship. In total he has know leadership skills. His all public appearances were complete failures. He cannot get the trust of the people and in the past he did not have a good character certificate compared to Mahinda. All the murder accusations including Lasantha murder, white van abductions are against to him, not against too Mahinda. So, you cannot assume all Mahinda votes will be transferred to Gota. Further the 2018 plot by Mahinda and Sirisena will have negative effect on their vote bank. Bribe allegation and constitutional violation also will have negative factor.
    It is going to be a tight race which might lead to both major candidates be under 50% share and the second preference may be a determining factor in deciding who will become the next president.

  • 2
    0

    Dr. Keethaponcalan.
    Dont be too sure mate; Between the cup and the lip there can be many a slip!

  • 0
    5

    Sirisena’s legality of SLFP presidency is questionable, because he wasn’t the SLFP selected candidate for presidential election 2015. And, if Mahinda had been allowed to stay as SLFP president, then there wouldn’t be SLPP (Pohottuwa party). CBK and Siresena must be blamed for SLFP’s downfall.
    /
    SLPP has had at least 40% vote bank just before Easter day Muslim terrorism. As we now know well, it was Yahapalan regime’s Sahajeevana-Sanhidiya stupidity is the sole reason that Muslims carried out terrorist atrocities so easily. And the worst is the people who have facilitated the terrorists are on stage with Yahapalana regime. So now, it’s safe to conclude that Gota has secured more 55% of votes. But, still Sajith can give a good fight if he moves away from Hakim, Badudeen, Mangy, etc and instead of immature speeches and promises, deliver well thought out speeches and REALISTIC promises.

    • 1
      1

      John,
      One of the most important associate of the Waster Sunday bombers is Hisbullah who is contesting as an ally to Gotabaya. Can you say Sinhala terrorists carried out the Easter Sunday bombs because Gotabaya group was behind Hisbullah?

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    GGETHA PONIANGALLAN has no right to call that TNA IS A PROXY TO UNP. TNA as a party has its mandate to take a stand on their own.GOTHAPAYS enemy is no body other than GUYS LIKE BOORUWANSA,GONPULLE,AND MAHIDANANDA. The way they shout from roof top against tamils will take away any tamil votes from SLPP. The days are gone where you play double game.say one thing in the south and another thing in the north.PEOPLE OF NORTH EAST AND SOUTH CAN NOT TAKE IT FOR GRANTED ANY MORE IN ANY ISSUES.

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    Gothabaya’s Victory Assured?

    Yes without a doubt. There are three reasons for it
    1) Easter Sunday attacks
    2) Will the Power be devolved to North & East.
    3) Gothas Promise to Ignore the UN Resolutions and his claim that no one is missing of those who surrendered and they were all treated like ” Karuna” and above all to reclaim Sri Lankas lost Sovereignty.

    Let us look at what they mean
    *** This was the by product of Sinhala Brutality for the last 71 years but no one will admit to it. Instead we are labelled as Terrorists.

    Will Power be Devolved and the causes of the Ethnic strife which has blighted the country for 71 years with no end in sight be removed .
    *** The answer is an emphatic NO and will not happen without outside pressure and India is the Key
    Can Gotha keep all his promises to win the Election and Reclaim the ” Sovereignty” lost.
    *** The answer is simple. NO.
    India is on the Ground in Sri Lanka and in Total control. Just look at what happened in Jaffna Airport. Despite Sri Lankan opposition and in defiance India has turned the Airport into an International Airport and MS was there as a SPECTATOR not as a CHIEF GUEST as one would have expected. That is the shape of things to come .
    If MR & Gotha are elected there will be further erosion of Sovereignty and they cannot do anything that threatens Indias Security. . So these are empty promises and Gotha is after only one this the “Presidency” which he thinks will give him immunity. He doesn’t care a damn about Sri Lanka because he abandoned it and claimed US Citizenship.

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    A very good in-partial analysis, rarely seen in CT.

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    Incoming Presidential election is not that only victory of Gotabaya R… ?
    It is movement of Resistance against political-economy-social undermined by anti- Establishment outfits by People-power against TNA+joint LTTE , JVP of south Terrorist and Muslim Terrorist in an Island -wide..

    We are country of so long-term of prevailing of democracy of Third World nation after 1945 Brighton wood Accord..
    Since 2015 Jan 8th as clouds of all round recession began to loom the Sri Lankn economy . Many of that Right thinking people of Lankan asked whether another WAR depression or even deep recession has emerge.
    Yes was the debate over market capitalism that notion unfettered markets by themselves .
    Is that UNP of RW , CBK and MS regime an installed by Western -power by can that an ensure Economic prosperity and Growth would assure or be over?
    The crisis has been to crash into our door step last 4 years and 8 months.since 15/1/8 . I see time to lead to change in the realm of policies,politics and the realm of ideas and outlook of nation future after incoming Elections 2020? That why GR has to play important role of New Market Economy by base of sustainability of Path of Development of Island.

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    Our Country, Nation and People of Sri Lankan that Development and Democracy has gone to several steps backward by UNP regime in power since 15/1/8.
    An unholy alliances of UNP lead forces with that TNA+LTTE , JVP , Muslim Congress of (Rauf Hakkem,) Rashied Budideen of are that Muslim terrorist proxies behind responsibility of destroy our system of political- Economic order by an intentionally blessing of that current leadership of UNP.

    Even now UNP and their incorrigible alliances of partners of that (TNA JVP ,MC UP country Tamil ( Chauvinist of anarchist ) who are deny that magnitude of problems facing our citizens of that development and democracy of an Island last 5 years.
    By largely that UNP has broken promised and lost all social contract by dissolved
    the leadership of pair of that UNP-Ranil-Sajith combinations since 15/1/8! @

    The UNP by all accounts of failure many sectors of that key Economic Trade, Fiance, Education, Health, Energy and Manufacturing in acute crisis under Neocolonialist policies. Both leadership advocated was by joint-failure of operation of Ranil -Sajith…..It was collective accountability of both of that 21/4 Muslim Terror attacked in by Islam state in Island .All in all types of terrorist are of that JVP ,TNA Muslim Congress are under leadership UNP’s umbrella lead by Ranil & Sajith
    In reality that Sajith R….cannot absolve of his political commitment from current UNP regime all misdeeds against to people of Sri lankan…..that Sajith R… having big part of responsibilities .

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    Please, this country does not want a madman. Whatever the failures of this govt, we never saw the daily murders, disappearance etc of a white van culture. Not a single journalist was killed. Under the pakses there was no law and order, everyone plundered, raped and murdered as they pleased. We do NOT want a repetition of that. And how anesthetised hv we become to family bandysm!! If there are gods above, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not let a paksa rule this land EVER AGAIN! How low must the voter fall, how bereft of any semblance of self respect, to vote for such a low down thug!

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