4 July, 2022

Blog

Hold Elections & Avert A Dual-Power Crisis

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

On Wednesday I hinted at a standoff between Ranil (RW) and Gota (GR). Things have moved rapidly not by explicit declaration of war but by the stark fact that RW has taken control of the Interim Administration (IA) while GR is blank-minded. RW is in control of the emergency measures and pushing ahead including making the former Maldivian president ambassador at large to negotiate Lanka’s case in the world’s capitals. He is also dictating what crumbs will be left for GR to lick off the floor when 21A is enacted. The RW vs. GR contest seems to be moving to the formers advantage. But RW suffers from a fatal Achilles’ heel, he has no support in Parliament and is dependent on GR’s SLPP goons to get anything enacted since Sajith is playing hard to get like a coy virgin. 21A of course needs a 2/3 majority and its passage may depend on how much residual power is to remain in the hands of the castrated Executive Presidency. (In my view EP must be demolished root-and-branch, but that will have to await 22A)

There is something of a balance of power. GR derives power from an overwhelming majority in the legislature and whatever residual influence the Paksa Clan retains in the country at large; even a tenth of the infamous 69 lakhs is a problem. RW’s strength comes from two sources: (i) people are fed up; they are willing to give any goddamn mother’s son a chance to do something. And (ii) RW seems to be setting about the emergency repair process with determination. Hence more than just the car-owning upper middleclass is breathing a cautious sigh of relief. In cricketing parlance RW’s team has opened the batting and at lunch is 49 for no wickets. Yes, early days you will justifiably say; but Gota’s fielding side has no bowlers and no balls.

Could this uneasy truce deteriorate into conflict? Yes, it could if alarmed by the spectacle of falling flat on its face and the possibility that down the road plunderers, murderers and human-rights violators may be brought to book (not by RW but by a rising groundswell of bottled up anger), the Paksa side decides to counterattack. Recall the events outside Temple Trees on 9 May and multiply it many-fold, read history about military coups, then you can imagine what may happen in a worst-case scenario.

Allow me to say a few words about two worst-case dual-power scenarios in the contemporary world; Libya is one. Libya has two governments and the nation is embroiled in civil war. One government is appointed by the so-called Eastern Parliament, the other was set up by international negotiations in Geneva. Both justifiably claim a high degree of legitimacy. The worst of it is not this, but that it is now physically impossible to hold elections because ground conditions are brutal. The moral of the story is that there is a need to elect a legitimate government before descent into hell. The sooner a general election is conducted the better. In Sri Lanka surely four months from now is adequate! Whichever purveyor of faeces wins, if a constitutionally legitimate government is established, we Lankans can get back to our usual hobbies of robbing, slacking at work and bullying the minorities. Well that’s better than anarchy and civil war isn’t it? I am serious; a Paksas versus the rest dual-power battle could degenerate into chaos; or are you confident that the Paksas are already dead meat? You may be right but quick elections will circumvent all this.

Who wins the election is less important than holding it and restoring political stability. There are four at the starting-post; Sajith and his SJB, some kind of rump-SLPP maybe by another name, RW and a contraption he clobbers together, and the JVP-NPP. It is absurd to speculate on the outcome but it’s fun to bet at the races; so, feel free to choose your odds and place your bets. Sajith seems set to win more seats than he now has and the rump-SLPP-Paksa-apology will surely suffer catastrophe. A fun thing to speculate about is: If RW does ok in pulling the country a little bit out of the current mire, what sort of contraption will he be able to stitch together? He has his UNP of course and upper-class and upper-middle class SJB types may dump the boy from Keselwatte and move back to their ancestral home. RW is well aware that he must pull off this gamble, that’s why he is going at it with gusto. At a strategically correct time I can see him too intoning “Gota Go Home”. There is no honour among opportunists. He came close to saying this in an interview with Sky-TV (UK).

Another interesting matter is that after 21A and hopefully with abolition of EP promised by all parties except the Paksa-rump party in their election manifestoes, the ground will be cut under the ambitions of Champika, Fonny and a prospective President-RW. Why an earth will any of these worthies want a Ceremonial Presidency but to park his bum on a soft, purple cushioned throne? Oh well, maybe Funny Fonny! A post 22A (and possibly a post 21A) president will be a stuffed doll chosen by parliament; no more presidential elections. How nice!

It remains for readers to assess whether RW will be able to secure partial relief of the terrible hardships facing Lanka at this moment. The fuel crisis is likely to ease in the coming weeks as mercy tankers from India dock and discharge their precious juices. Part of the problem is that panicking car and three-wheeler owners are keeping their tanks full to the brim. If juice begins to flow the panic may ease but then will begin a far more serious problem; food. UN agencies earlier this week warned that a very serious food crisis is on its way. Some 400 million people will go hungry. A March 22, 2022 FAO Information Note said Russia’s wheat production accounts for 16.8% of world wheat trade, while Ukraine’s ‘s share is 11.5%%. In 2021, either Russian or Ukraine (or both) ranked amongst the top three global exporters of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seed and sunflower oil, while the Russia is the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, second in potassium fertilizer and the third in of phosphorous fertilizer. UN agencies have warned of dire and unavoidable consequences to come.

Were our fertiliser scuttling imbeciles working in cahoots with Russia and Ukraine? The Treasury and the Central Bank have been robbed and emptied by the villainy or idiocy, respectively, of MR and the Royal Family, or of GR. The future is bleak. RW cannot overcome all this; not a chance. Then the point is will people say “This bugger tried and did some small things; the real villains are the goddamned Paksas” or will people roll him up and damn him as well? Remains to be seen.

I spoke of dual-power, maybe I should have said two-and-a-half power. There is another force, electorally peripheral but energetic in street power. I refer to what middle of road people call “extremists” who make up a goodly part of the Galle Face mobilisation. This contingent marches to the slogans of 1971 and 1989; the names of its heroes are from that era. If elections are denied and the degeneration of the conflict into extra-parliamentary spaces is not averted, this contingent will make hay when the rains stop and the sun shines upon it. What do you think of that option? I mentioned two examples of dual power, the other is Yemen where a civil-war with mighty international involvement is raging. What do you think of that option? The international antagonists who will practising in Lankan waters and soils will be the QUAD led by India in this instance, and China by remote control. Think about it.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Latest comments

  • 22
    0

    To those who kept saying that the US was behind Ranil, and that they were all out to take over our little island, especially the Trincomalee port, we have to ask where is the US now? They could have easily taken advantage of the terrible plight we are in, stepped in, and bought us over. But as we can see, no US, no Western nations, not even China, came running to help us or take over our island and its ports. It is better to stop listening to the Rajapaksa propaganda, because they have deliberately misinformed this country, spread false propaganda, and made many distrust the other side. It is all part of their political tactics.

  • 10
    2

    “like a coy virgin.” ………. You know your virgins, Prof! :)))


    “whether RW will be able to secure partial relief of the terrible hardships facing Lanka at this moment.”

    “The future is bleak. RW cannot overcome all this; not a chance.” ……… spot on!

    This time, it’s beyond Ranil ……….in 2001 and 2015, it only needed some remedial work and fine tuning: the economy was not dead ……… the entire world is entering a very difficult phase …… they are going to look after themselves first …..

    I’ll put all my money on Ranil to fail: there is no other possibility.

    Whoever takes power has to feed the people. The Army won’t even think of it ……. unless there is a lunatic, then he won’t last long.

    Not a civil war, but violence is a certainty ……… some of it is already taking place ……. people taking things to eat by force ……..


    All the sacrifice and hardship would be worth it ……….. if the people can do a Benito in the Galle Face Green ….. with the Rajapakses, Ranil, the 225 ……. and the rest of the culprits …….. responsible for the mess ……

    Pacifism has limits ……

    • 1
      3

      Nimal Fernando, did you not say just last week that only Ranil can save the economy? What made you to change your opinion so dramatically, so quickly??? :))

      • 10
        0

        Jit,

        I did not say Ranil could save the economy this time. I said Ranil is the only Lankan who has proven he can save the economy since he has done it twice before – in 2001 and 2015.


        The way I look at the world is very simple: I follow the truth. I do not follow personalities.


        If someone saved the economy, he/she saved the economy. If someone didn’t save the economy he/she didn’t save the economy.

        • 0
          0

          Nimal Fernando, on 17th of May, just 6 days ago you said:

          “….There is only one proven Lankan capable of rescuing the economy: Ranil…..”

          https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/ranil-political-evil/comment-page-1/?unapproved=2433815&moderation-hash=3e94244e0bcfe4653fe5f1441ade7edf#comment-2433815

          You cancel you own verdict within a week. Knowing the character of RW – I am not surprised!! :))

          • 0
            0

            Jit,

            “I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure you realize that what you read is not what I meant.“ :))


            “….There is only one proven Lankan capable of rescuing the economy: Ranil…..”

            That’s a mere statement of a true fact …….. It does not imply that he can repeat the feat ……….. or under what conditions he achieved the feat ……..

            It’s like saying, there is only one proven man capable of jumping 30 feet in the long jump …….. It doesn’t imply that he can repeat the feat again ……… or if he achieved the feat in the high altitude of Mexico City, whether he can repeat the feat in low altitude ….. or anywhere else ……….. :))

          • 1
            0

            Sadly the economy cannot now be saved by anybody.
            .
            That still doesn’t mean that we will all be dead in a week. However, Ranil may not make as many blunders as the others who were “possibles’ to be stop-gaps.
            .
            If Harsha de Silva were to take over, he’d want to have a free hand and will evolve a long-term strategy. He will bide his time.
            .
            The fittest and the strongest will survive. Will I? Who can tell? But the chances of people who understand just how bad things are may be more cautious and sensible.
            .
            A few days ago, AKD introduced a Professor of Economics from SJP University as the NPP advisor on matters of Finance. How will he turn out? I don’t know, but I go along with the Party line on it. After all Kumar David will be doing some monitoring of the NPP programme.

          • 1
            0

            Part Two
            .
            It’s not just the individual who matters. How free will be he be to express his honest views? I’m sure that Ajith Nivard Cabral knew that printing money would cause problems. He had probably had some plan for ensuring that his personal fortunes didn’t suffer; other than that, he had to give maximum heed to Gota’s views.
            .
            Some reasonable plan and an economist who needn’t be the most brilliant, but who is honest and who will receive co-operation from the others in the cabinet; that is what we need.
            .
            Whoever emerges victorious, if they show that they have the people’s welfare as their primary goal, many of us will survive although with lower expectations.

    • 0
      0

      like a coy virgin… and… GR’s side has no balls….

  • 9
    0

    De facto dual power has emerged quicker than I anticipated. Five or six of the 13 Cabinet Ministers appointed thus far are on record as: (a) ruthless critics of the President, or (b) implacable opponents of the Executive Presidential system, or (c) persons who have denounced the Rajapaksa Clan for plundering the nation. This regime in its top-most echelons is a house divided against itself and destined for turmoil (unless Gota does the sensible thing and buggers off before he is kicked out). The case for elections within four months is irrefutable. Kumar D

    • 0
      2

      ee…
      Have you consulted the puppeteer about this prospect?

  • 16
    4

    It will be impossible for any woman to divorce a guy like Ranil. He will trap her with all kinds of legal arguments and bribes. She died when she decided to marry him. That is his personality.

    If Ranil or his family acquire 1% of any enterprise they will take ownership and become its chairman. That enterprise will not flourish. t will slowly die (UNP ?) But he will remain chairman

    This also happening to Sri Lanka. He has come back for the 6th time !

    • 2
      0

      deepthi silva

      “If Ranil or his family acquire 1% of any enterprise they will take ownership and become its chairman.”

      You have just misspelled the name, it is spelled BASIL.

      “This also happening to Sri Lanka. He has come back for the 6th time !”

      I haven’t got a clue how many times did Basil come back, he is there pulling strings from behind. You also know how BASIL sucked the country while his clan ran this country, he will remain until every drop of blood is left in human and available for …. , ……………

      Getting old is not an excuse for you to misquote names.

      • 2
        0

        Ranil is PM for 6th time thanks to deal with BASIL and his party !

  • 12
    0

    If Elections are held now, the same rascals will get elected again may be with a different permutation and combination, constitutional reforms and system changes will no longer be a priority
    The merry—go- round will continue forever until another calamity strikes!

    • 1
      0

      Srikrish,
      .
      Before going to hold an election, people s should be taught to think different. There should be a system, that we should all start it from kindergarten level.

      Latter will never be an easy task, so long PINGUTHTHARAYA community would be kept above in the society. Now on, Aragalaya supporters should start educating the people.

      Just imagine, those who go to TEMPLEs, just emulate pseudo monks, for no good reasons. Most of them being chanted by them are not clear to the listeners. It is like greek. Nevertheless, young generations would not stand against their parents. This has now become a circle event. Hamudurowos themselves dont know what they have been preaching about. SINHALA BUDDHAGAMA has misled the people from dawn to dusk.
      .
      The same is the case with Hindu believers. This is typical south asian mentality no second to that of red indians and their beliefs.
      .
      Muslims are no better, if they would be asked to fall down on the floor and worship, they woul dnot disagree. Theirs is even primitiver than any others because whole lot of women are not given to read and write.

  • 8
    0

    A normal citizen of Sri Lanka is not inteested in the loopo holes in the constutuion or clauses in the constutuin. The constutuion was manipulated several times after 1948 to meet the nees if certain grioup of politicains, That is the root cause of ecnomic distter along with corruptionat political and piblic service
    Even if you have elecytiond what is the gurntee that people will elect MP’s of high intergrity.? The political culture in Sri lanka do not follow ethics. The behviour of MP;’s in the Prliament proves it . Political vindictive attidue in Politicians blood

  • 3
    0

    Hold Elections & Avert A Dual-Power Crisis

    Harin gave full support to get rid of Mahinda now he is with them there will be tug off war precipitation This Bitterness and resentments only poison it It’s a waste of energy, a waste of time.
    Now the parliament is not by not for the people not from the people and speaking of democracy not valid the present PM itself is deteriorate into conflict

  • 4
    0

    To have an Election to get rid of the uneducated/corrupt/uncivilised Members of the Parliament, is a very good idea if only there is a ELECTION COMMISSION that is capable of eliminating corrupt practices in conducting election campaigns. It should be able to reject the candidates with a history of having committed crimes of any nature/ court cases pending against them. If there had been miscarriages of Justice in the past, they should be revisited. ESPECIALLY– Tsunami relief fund misappropriation by Mahinda R.
    Also whether NGR was a USA citizen at the TIME he submitted his NOMINATION for the post of Presidency. We need to close up the EASTER BOMBING investigations.

  • 6
    1

    “The RW vs. GR contest seems to be moving to the formers advantage”

    It looks like RW has advantage over Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but anytime that can change because still the parliament is under the control of Gotajaba (Mahinda). Rajapaksas are waiting to see the recovery of the economy by RW or the West or failure of RW in recovering economy and then show their colours. Even if you change the constitution with any amendments these amendments can be reversed back at any time. The country had how many amendments within five years? Don’t under estimate Rajapaksas and Buddhist Fundamentalism.

  • 3
    0

    “………by the stark fact that RW has taken control of the Interim Administration (IA) ….”

    Oh no Kumar, you got it wrong this time!

    Rajapaksha gang is still doing all the moves in this chess game …

    Otherwise how come stinking shitloads like Tiran, Keheliya, Siripala, Wijedasa etc getting back into important cabinet portfolios again??? Ranil was not given a single chance to bring in his own shitloads such as Sagala, Vajira, Range Bandara, Ruwan, etc.,

    Rajapaksha gang still running the show…..

  • 1
    0

    Wijedasa Rajapakse [ I HAVE USED E and not A as the last letter ]. MaRa and wijedasa hail from the same area Tangalle. But Wijedasa deep down has felt slighted by the MaRa clan. This after all is an issue not only in Politics but also in marriage………..

    Anyway,getting back to the subject WR does not need any pushing or cajoling to put in the commas and full-stops into the 21st A. For all I know this must have been prepared by him when he was slighted about 2 yrs ago by offering him a humdrum State Minister slot. WR thinks he deserves much more than that. A sought after PC, author of several books on Law, time has now come to take his sweet revenge.
    Interestingly,most people in the country would welcome that revenge. No more Dual Citizens as Parliamentarians.Exit Kaputas Basil. But one needs a 2/3rds majority to push it through, though a referendum is not required…………….
    Would Basil take it without a fight. This is where the next fireworks begins…..
    Gota VS Basil.
    A TEST OF STRENGTH OR A TEST OF POWER?
    GOTA HAS AGREED ON PRINCIPLE FOR THE 21stA.
    The Trojan Horse is the Dual Citizenship nicely woven into it…………

  • 0
    1

    China produces 40% of the world’s fertilizers. America 15%, Russia 4% and Ukraine is only 1%. If Russia goes out of the picture, then the demand and supply will within 6 months reach a new equilibrium. Nothing bigee. Writing Communist stories to elevate Russia’s tail, doesn’t hold it in the sky in the real world. The Much-hyped Russian-Ukraine war is a fiasco. Guys, I am sorry for readers that one time I wrote here that within one day Russia will capture Ukraine; second day Zelensky would run to Germany & third day Russia appoints a puppet for its new province and goes back home. Guys don’t lose your own capacity by reading Prof. Kumar or UOJ Sadampi’s exaggeration of Communism.
    To come to the point, Prof. Kumar is looking with the same “positive” and “negative “signs in electric circuits, which he did for his living, in relation with the Ceylon politics of Ranil the Evil Emperor and Hitler King. Science’s misunderstanding comes from Greek’s time, that in electricity or in magnetism that there is something hard that exists as positive and negative.
    In Electricity, electrons leaving point is negative and reaching point is positive. Anything which leaves from somewhere must reach somewhere else, so the positive and negative are only looked at as two things by electricians, but they are one & only one, & always they co-exist.

    • 4
      2

      “I am sorry for readers that one time I wrote here that within one day Russia will capture Ukraine; second day Zelensky would run to Germany & third day Russia appoints a puppet for its new province and goes back home.”
      *
      The prophet eats his words!

      • 4
        0

        The country would be a better place only if Mao and Siri Mao supporters ……………… rather than carrying …….

  • 1
    1

    There is no real fighting taking place in between them in electric current or magnet bars but rather, by natures’ rule, they are dependent on each other like a tree branch’s stems & leaves. Leaves are not without twigs and twigs are not without leaves. These plus minus signs are loaded on manwoman and created sexual racism. But there is only one human. UNP and SLFP are not without each other. Kaveri Thaan Singari; Singari Thaan Kaveri. Dudley and Solomon West, by internal agreement acted as Hero & Villain. But these UNP & SLFP are the same team’s actors, and they interchange their roles, travel on the same bus, split the earnings fairly in between them, too. One of these things is called UNP, the other thing is called SLFP. There is no policy difference or antagonism in between these two bastard clubs; but the only difference is who owns the stronger cannons that can spew more anti-Tamil venom during the election in consideration for campaign. It is so silly for Prof Kumar to decorate a story called Evil Emperor Ranil Vs Hitler King, then he stands on the side race track and hoot, either “Go Ranil Go or Go Gotta Go”, from time to time.

  • 0
    1

    The contention of this race is that either Evil Emperor and King Hitler lose together, or they both win together against each other, because one’s win is the other ones’ share of 50%. The only real race is with the protestors. If protestors lose, then Ceylon loses it permanently.
    CBK used Kadirgamar to campaign against Tamils. Rowdy Mahinda reaped that harvest by 32 nations helping him, most of them were Western democracies. As soon as the war was won, Rowdy Mahinda surrendered to China for commission and promised Veto against Tamils. Angered West worked for 7 years and brought Yahapalanaya in a regime change operation. Ranil kicked on the back of the Ambassador Atul Heshap in the proposal moving their Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. During the coup, Western Embassies got together and met Ranil to say that they were with Yahapalanaya. In return for that, Ranil met the New King and Rowdy Mahinda at 2:00 AM in the morning and told them that the West was plotting against the Lankawe Royals. New King and Old King, who well knew that the West disliked them at that time, not surprised by this but only angered, So New King retaliated why the Evil Emperor could not tell this publicly but made him meet in the late night.

  • 1
    1

    Now America wanted to give up the Evil Emperor to chase Old Rowdy. So when the hope of ousting the Rowdy Mahinda dwindled, they directly told Old Rowdy that if he wants America’s support for any of his family members to become as EP, it is time for him to quit. With that & other canes and carrots, Old Rowdy quit. The Disappointed Evil Emperor switched his loyalty to Hitler and engaged his niece also in that. She overtly worked for Hitler in the 2019 election. Then America found out that they lost again, because there was no difference between Ranil the Evil Emperor and Rowdy Mahinda. So, they promoted Hitler. Now Hitler King and Evil Emperor have teamed up together to fool the West and milk some additional commission as donation. Neither Evil Emperor’s Yahapalanaya nor Royals any governments wanted to accept a $600 million Millennium fund offer but bought a vial of vaccine for $15, while Bangladesh bought it for $5. Astonishingly Ranil Emperor never asked any question for such wastes but, now tightening his loin cloth to jump into the pool and save the Hitler. Comedy Thamai. In those circumstances, I don’t understand, after reading this essay, when did Prof. Kumar sold his Brian to Hitler and bought Rowdy Mahinda’s brain for him to write “Gota Vs Ranil”.

  • 0
    0

    Can the proposed “21A” withdraw the Parliamentary seats held by “Dual Citizens” in terms of the “20A”? If that is the expectation of the Minister of Justice and his Cabinet Colleagues, including the PM, I would bet that it would not happen. Reasons: (1) The Pohottuwa MPs – the “Stooges” of “Kaputa” – the Basil will not vote for it. (2) Can any of the provisions proposed in “21A” be made to take effect from the date of the passing of the “20A”? (3) This proposed “21A” will definitely be challenged in SC and any provision therein to take the “Retrospective” effect would be declared null and void. The result – “Kaputa” will survive to take the “NEXT MOVE” and that would be a “Marriage” between “Pohottuwa” and “Elephant” – a “Marriage” designed to keep the “Rajapakse Dynasty” in power.

    Before that “Disaster” takes place, the PEOPLE must demand a General Election and END the “Rajapakse Curse”.

  • 4
    0

    “Minister of Foreign Affairs Prof. G.L. Peiris registered the Govt of Sri Lanka’s emphatic protest and deep concern over the adoption of a motion in the Canadian Parliament on 18 May 2022 on the alleged genocide of Tamils in Sri Lanka.”

    Sri Lanka can keep on saying alleged, but when a whole parliament votes without a single against, at least as far as they are concerned its not alleged, its a state sponsored genocide that has not been allowed to be investigated.

  • 1
    4

    I find it hard to imagine how the Libyan parallel will apply to the country.
    The situation in Libya is the outcome of US-NATO meddling to achieve regime change where there was a stable government with a thriving economy.
    *
    There was dual power twice already in this country: CBK and RW early this century; and MS and RW in the last decade.
    Right now, the cards are stacked heavily against GR.

Leave A Comment

Comments should not exceed 200 words. Embedding external links and writing in capital letters are discouraged. Commenting is automatically disabled after 5 days and approval may take up to 24 hours. Please read our Comments Policy for further details. Your email address will not be published.