By Mohamed Harees –

Lukman Harees

Sri Lanka’s local government elections on May 6 have thrown up interesting results. The governing NPP achieved a decisive victory by winning 266 out of 339 local councils, with the opposition parties performing poorly; SJB, the main opposition party, emerging the runner-up, having won control of 13 local governments, while ITAK and the SLMC won 37 and 5 councils respectively. Both UNP and SLPP did not capture power in any council. Nationally however, NPP’s vote bank declined from 6.8 million in the November 2024 parliamentary elections to just 4.5 million in the just-concluded local elections — a staggering 34 percent drop indeed. Yet, the opposition parties together didn’t dent the NPP’s control over three-fourths of local bodies.

It is however not realistic to depict this drop, as the SJB and the SLPP were trying to make out, as the ‘beginning of the end’ for the party. Despite NPP having underperformed, the truth is it does not indicate a wholesale rejection or widespread disillusionment with the party. Local government elections are mostly decided by hyper-local factors such as the status of the candidate, personal ties, and even village level political rivalries. Ideology and party loyalty matter more in national ones than local government elections. The voters are more concerned about local issues like garbage collections, road maintenance in the area and local taxes, rather than economic visions or foreign policy. Besides, there was possible voter fatigue too, being the third election in nine months.

Yet, for the NPP, the drop in support, reflect disengagement and its challenge now isn’t just bridging the gap, but re-energizing the millions of those who voted for them at the last two elections. The ruling party must realize it can’t take its base for granted. It cannot dismiss the results as a minor set-back and continue on its present path; rather the party needs a thorough introspection, and get out of their blind spots. The leadership need to read the results for what they are- alarm bells by the electorate to stop its NATO( NO action, talk only) approach and deliver on promises, proving their promises for “system change” do not remain as mere slogans.

The results across the North-East reflect a broader disillusionment with the NPP, particularly among Tamil voters who felt the government has failed to deliver on promises of justice, accountability, and devolution. Instead, voters appeared to have returned to Tamil nationalist parties that centre the Tamil people’s political aspirations. Notably, several independent groups also performed well, highlighting the persistence of local dynamics and grassroots mobilization. Ethnic-based political parties retained a strong grip in the East. Ethnic voting patterns remained strong, with ITAK and Muslim parties successfully capitalising on identity politics. Muslim votes specially in the East did not favour the NPP as entrenched power of political families, and party loyalty in the region makes it difficult for a new party to break through. There was also disenchantment among Muslim voters due to the NPP failing to deliver on its promises, such as repealing the obnoxious PTA and the seriousness of its inclusive policy by not appointing any Muslim cabinet minister, as well as appointing a controversial Ministry Secretary who played a role in pushing through the forced cremation policy during Covid time. Increasing Israeli activities in Sri Lanka is also a cause for worry.

Although AKD was elected as the President after the distribution of second-preference votes from the eliminated candidates, still, this outcome was an incredible upset, against all the obstacles of power, class, and capital that were standing in AKD’s way. NPP acquired more than 2/3^rd of the mandate at the Parliamentary elections, which earned many firsts in electoral history in Sri Lanka, with the electorate fatigued by many decades of corrupt administration,  divisive and racist politics and rising cost of living, yearning for a dramatic change in political culture and an inclusive style of governance. Of course, the NPP regime had its challenges, being caught between the expectations of the electorate for change and pressure from the IMF to continue with a destructive austerity program.  The country is now at a critical juncture when it has to face severe economic consequences of high US tariffs on its exports to the US.

In the area of human rights and political reforms, the NPP vowed to abolish the draconian PTA, end racism and extremism in governance, respect workers’ rights, and promote collective bargaining. It also wanted to introduce a new constitution that will abolish the executive powers of the president and devolve authority to the regions, including the Tamil-majority north and east. NPP also promised to end the impunity crisis and expedite the pace of the investigations relating to many high-profile criminal cases and the much talked about Easter Sunday tragedy. The NPP election campaign also focussed much on hastening its efforts of nation building, especially the formidable tasks of eradicating corruption and uniting all communities and religions.

However, despite sky high expectations of the people, and the oft repeated political verbosity, emerging from the NPP leadership claiming moral high ground of ‘good governance’, a glaring gap exists between rhetoric and reality. Of course, the team is visibly steering away from corrupt activities and political interference in law enforcement. True! there are efforts of the NPP Government in allowing the rule of law to prevail, enhancing the right to information, increasing transparency, and promoting accountability.  However, lack of much progress in bringing to conclusion those high-profile criminal cases and Easter Sunday probe and inability to stem the rising tide in crimes impacting on public safety, have basically frustrated the people’s aspirations for a change. Many of those wanted for recent crimes are in hiding and despite the steam roller majority, law making process to end impunity and law enforcement machinery to bring corrupt politicians to book (including the Rajapaksas), also appears to be at snail’s pace, and found wanting.

There appears to too much reliance on AKD to deliver, with only a handful of NPP ministers rising up to the occasion, and despite promises of an efficient governance, the management team comprising of the cabinet ministers and their deputies are by and large inexperienced and have sadly not measured up. Another reason for the slow grinding administrative process has been the need to rely on the old civil administrators and officers, who do not seem to be falling in line with the mandate NPP has received. Much talk both inside and outside the parliament, but no visible action on the ground. Street and underworld crimes are becoming commonplace. The ministers were seen to be on a regular basis, reading out a stream of corrupt practices by former ministers and politicians (for example those fraudulently claiming from the Presidential fund or damages to their properties during the bouts of violence during Aragalaya time), but the public have not seen any visible action being taken either by way of prosecutions or arrests. Besides, Sri Lankans are traditionally impatient, wanting quick fixes, with a deep-rooted culture of entitlement and do not have an ‘earn based on performance’ mindset.      

When a governing party holds a majority in parliament, it can lead to several blind spots in the political landscape. These blind spots often arise from the diminished role of opposition, the potential for unchecked power, and the challenges in maintaining democratic accountability. The presence of a strong majority can blur the lines between government and opposition, reduce the effectiveness of checks and balances, and lead to a lack of diverse representation in policy-making. These issues are compounded by the internal dynamics of the governing party and the broader political system.

While a majority in parliament can lead to blind spots, it also provides opportunities for decisive governance and policy implementation. The ability to pass legislation without significant opposition can lead to swift reforms and stability in government. However, this concentration of power necessitates strong internal mechanisms and accountability measures to ensure that the government remains responsive to the needs of all citizens. Additionally, exploring non-majoritarian forms of governance and decision-making could offer more inclusive and representative political systems, addressing some of the deficiencies of a majoritarian polity.

The results of the just-concluded local government elections should therefore awaken the NPP leadership to see reality, in the context of people aspirations and expectations to hopefully usher in a new era of good governance. NPP cannot afford to lose minorities’ support due to its shortsighted policies and its own understanding of their aspirations. The minorities should be included in governance. Not including a Muslim minister and lack of empathy for Muslim/Tamil sentiments are few such examples.

Sri Lanka finds itself at the cusp of opportunity and threat. The NPP Government’s approach towards charting and establishing a new path of transformative and inclusive governance may be a trifle slow. Thus, be it as it may, , still, it appears to be anchored in a rule of law, and guided by principles of accountability and transparency. Therefore, different to what we have experienced in the past. In that context, going back to the corrupt past and/or handing over power to those corrupt ‘alternative’ parties who have wielded power in the past, be they SJB, UNP or SLPP should not be an option at all. Therefore, way forward should be to strengthen the NPP’s hands and keep them on their tracks through public activism and making them walk their talk. It is also imperative for the opposition parties to act as a viable means of ensuring proper checks and balances as they should in a democracy, without being unprincipled.