15 August, 2020

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Some Thoughts On Covid-19

By Upatissa  Pethiyagoda

Dr. Upatissa Pethiyagoda

So much has been written on this subject that it is near impossible to add anything that has not already been said. But just to relieve boredom of compulsory confinement by curfew, face masks and guys looking like visitors from other planets, the severity of the prospects are no joke and genuinely forbidding. The health, economic chaos and disruption of freedoms are horrifying. A little introspection is permissible. 

There is immense improvement in public understanding of viruses, zoonoses, social distancing etc. The limits and consequences of globalization, neglect and denigration of “food self-sufficiency” in favour of commercial Barter of agricultural products (gherkins before grain), recourse to profligate use of fossil fuels and neglect of alternative prospects for energy (hard to get kick-backs from trees, even solar cells and windmills), easier travel and reliance on tourism – the “dollars” approach to “development” (Development of what, one may well ask?), wealth before value, quantity before quality, and much more likely jargon smacking of “Economic Sophistry”.

As students of about 60 years ago, we learnt about viruses as being at the borderline between the biological and mineral, submicroscopic and unfilterable, and unable to survive outside of an organism. All in all, an inconsequential blip on a mighty human presence. This implied arrogance is now seriously challenged. Electron Microscopy and better filters have probably made a revision of two of our earlier criteria. But why this scourge just now?

Some view it as nature’s reaction to gross abuse of the environment, of which prior warnings have gone ignored or unheeded by a pompous mankind. Over the last few years there have been a great increase of “natural disasters” – hurricanes and typhoons, forest fires and floods, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, and a host of other indications of environmental abuse. Huge growth of population, well beyond the carrying capacity of the earth, accompanied by unbridled demand for the trappings of “development”. Is the increase of “natural Disasters” a gentle nudge to remind us that formidable reactions await those who persist in unsustainable profligacy. It seems as though Nature inflicts catastrophic events like the ongoing Corona pandemic as a way of restoring some balance, tragic and painful though it be. Historically, is it akin to the disappearance of the Dinosaurs?

It is immensely satisfying that Sri Lanka’s actions in containing this epidemic, places our country near the head of the league. It is evident that timely action and enforcement of discipline has paid off. Some have questioned the role of the armed forces and the police, and the wisdom of placing the Army Commander to head the team in combatting the outbreak, and that it should have been a representative from the medical field. I disagree. The necessity of using the military resources, (Physical and personnel) was correct and wise. The campaign was successful because the need was for intelligence, rapid action and experience in handling such crises, where logistic provisions were paramount. Medical matters were adequately covered by the presence of the head of medical services as an important member of the team. All in all, it makes our actions highly commendable, so far. The task is by no means over and the continued efficiency and cooperation of all involved forces must be sustained. As a side benefit, the image of the Armed Forces as not a mere collection of brutes, stands vindicated. This may convince even the most ardent promoters of Human Rights and countenance the adverse propaganda of the so-called Diaspora active in Geneva, or will we await “an appropriate time” for impotent jokers to act? Our congratulation to all concerned.

There are some unasked questions. For example, what are the chemicals used in spraying persons, buses, markets, and other places which draw large crowds? Have they been tested for effectiveness and safety? Has due notice been given to assure us that the necessary controls are in place?

To me, the more crucial component is to make certain that the incubation period is consistently fourteen days (or less) when all infected persons will present symptoms? Say the ones who are on day zero will be effectively quarantined, what of those who caught the bug on day 13 and therefore still infective during a further fourteen days? This has obviously been considered, as after release from the centres, a further self-quarantine for 14 days following return home is imposed. 

On the matter of symptomless carriers, the situation is bad. They are the most difficult to cope with. Do the swab tests, reveal this category as well? If not, will they be Time Bombs which will continue the pandemic? The fact is that a single virus particle, will proliferate and multiply rapidly, into astronomic numbers. For example, we learnt that a single bacterial cell, under ideal conditions will double every 20 seconds. Then, in 24 hours it will in theory, grow (now hold your breath) in numbers to 20,000 times the number of seconds since the birth of Christ! (Mathematically inclined readers may wish to check the numbers). If the behavior of Coronavirus is anything like this, the situation is frightening, and may explain how and why the Virus spread so rapidly and widely. 

The implications for our Tourism sector are bleak. Proponents of the virtues of Globalization may need to rethink. Several nations that trade with us (in both directions – in and out) are also in dire panic. Apart from the huge impact on employment all around, shortages of commodities both for consumption and as raw materials, merit close attention. Along with goods, we will virtually be the victims of having to absorb some of the inflation of others. 

It is mind boggling to think of how much living styles will get distorted and implications of an inevitable “Domino Effect”. Who would have thought a few years ago that a mere lowly virus, would be able to cause so much chaos to “Mighty Man”? Humility may be one lesson, and punishment for profligacy may be another. Self-reliance and self-sufficiency are no longer primitive. Those relying on “Digitalization” should think the unthinkable. A paperless, digitized society, with maximum automation, may smack of stylish, most comfortable and “sophisticated” goal. Along with that goal, will come instability and vulnerability. The Coronavirus, for the first time was not localized, but manifested widely and rapidly. This should urge us to be as self- sufficient to the extent possible, at least in food and medical needs. It is not merely availability but also logistics that will affect importation of necessities. We, like virtually all countries, are in for hard times ahead. We need to seek models, not from the West but countries like Bhutan who have lived within their means, preserved their forest cover and water sources, and made a virtue of simplicity in life styles.

Perhaps our own D.S. Senanayake was, without doubt right, in urging “Hemin Hemin” as a recipe for sober statecraft.  

Since nearly all countries were compelled to shut down or lockdown for very long periods, means that scarcities will manifest everywhere, and the previous strategy of importing to cover localized shortages, may no longer be possible as the source countries themselves will have less to spare. The most seriously affected will be food and medical supplies. The consequences are not difficult to see.  

The long periods during which all industrial production ceased too will have dire consequences, and slow down efforts to modernize our industrial outputs. If yarn for our textile mills become unavailable, how will the industry continue? What of the thousands of workers who will find themselves suddenly unemployed? Will not crimes escalate? Hunger can transform even the most docile (e.g. rabbits) into cannibals?

As an aside, it would appear superficially, that our nation can survive (and even do better) without formal governance. This predictably will (or may) impact even on voter turnout on 5 August.

With our paperless, computerized, electronic and sophisticated society collapse through a different kind of virus? What, may we ask, will knock some good sense into highly sophisticated us?

Anything is possible.

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Latest comments

  • 5
    2

    The army commander is good at what he does – war. He is not good to fight a pandemic. Foolish Gota thinks the military can do everything. He is wrong. Soon army soldiers will get it and spread around the country.

  • 2
    0

    Godfather China’s gift to the world has and is causing many a ripple of a disaster globally
    Except for a few African countries and Pacific-Island nations the rest of the once upon a time well developed including bankrupt Kota Uda isles of beggar colonies similar to sad sorry shitty Lanka now a Rajapuka owned piss pot in the bog.
    =
    The poor in penury poverty-stricken motherland of mine has all NO’s going against them in every aspect.?
    It is a NO to buy even the basic raw-materials to cook a simple meal even once a day, NO cash, NO jobs to go to, NO clothing to wear, NO schools are open to educating their children and it is an around a NO NO nO. that this Rajapuka shit of a man-made hellhole.
    =
    After the 16th November 2019 poll to sit on the royal squatting latrine, where the mean-looking kallathoni of a war criminal a mass killer of the innocents won the poll after bull-shitting then cajoling the foolish Yakko masses when that did not work he used the military of fellow harassing of the innocent minorities.
    =
    Lord Buddha got wind of these unholy doings has made the vicious villainous crooked Rajapuka’s by teaching him the lessons in their sordid lives by bringing forth the delight of the coronavirus-19.

  • 0
    3

    It is the forces that provide food and accommodation for thousands of people under quarantine. They also provide the personal to trace the contacts. Furthermore, the Army Commander is a very high ranking officer. Hence, the appointment of the Army Commander to head the Corvid-19 team is fully justified.

  • 0
    0

    Here is a thought Dr. Upatissa, The President of AMA ( Association of Medical Specialist), who happens to be a senior consulting surgeon, warned Govt that they suspect there is ESTABLISHED or imminent community transmission ,right now in Lanka. He further added, it is wise to accept the present situation without pretending there is no crisis, which otherwise may lead to Brazil or India like situation. He added the cases are under reported and quite a percentage of cases may have gone overlooked. (in his own words current reports are not dependable and not reliable). AMA , is an independent body with over 1300 senior specialist doctors serving in the Govt sector. They recommend banning all public gatherings including election rallies, with limited lock down as and when needed. I will be interested to know your counterpart Dr. Lasantha . P (who I consider forthright) opinion on this matter.

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