By Lionel Bopage –

Dr. Lionel Bopage

Ayubowan, Vanakkam, Assalamu alaikum and Greetings to all.

I acknowledge that our discussion occurs on the traditional lands of the First Australians – the Wurundjeri People of the Kulin Nation – the Traditional Custodians of this land. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present, and emerging, and the Elders of other communities.

The substantial mandate granted to the new NPP government in Sri Lanka reflects the aspirations of Sri Lankans for a better future and their disappointment with the shortcomings of previous regimes. The path ahead is challenging. Success will depend on the implementation of the promised social democratic agenda. Achieving the ‘system change’ envisioned by the ‘Aragalaya campaign’ demands dedication and sacrifice of the politicians, the bureaucracy, and the people, and is crucial for building a just and equitable future.

The global economic environment is undergoing a paradigm shift due to geopolitical rivalry and the disruption caused by the US resetting its entire agenda. National security has taken precedence over global economic governance, marking the end of the neoliberal globalization era. Measures such as tariffs are being reintroduced to control trade, technology, and investment flows. In this environment, the security state dominates the market, shifting the emphasis from cost efficiency to economic resilience and security.

This focus on economic security requires the state to assert control over private technology transfer and investment and to incentivize the relocation of critical industries closer to domestic territories. In this new geopolitical environment, would the social-democratic economic model become the norm in the post-globalization era? Would the current geoeconomic disruptions undermine export-oriented models that rely on competitive advantage?

The new NPP government wants to break the vicious cycle of corruption and inefficiency that was prevalent under previous regimes, indicating the new government’s integrity and moral determination. This positive development is encouraging, despite the government’s inexperience and some clumsy ways of handling deep-rooted challenges.

For economic recovery, the government needs to establish a shared vision for the future. Its approach to debt management will also influence the country’s geopolitical standing and social stability. By combining fiscal discipline with innovative revenue strategies and strong governance reforms, the government can redefine the economic narrative.

This will include attracting foreign investment—including from the diaspora, rebuilding trust in financial institutions, implementing systemic transparency and accountability reforms, and ensuring the ongoing welfare of citizens. For example, a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) co-financed by Tamil diaspora business leaders could facilitate a phased expansion of the Jaffna International Airport into a thriving international hub—bringing much-needed foreign exchange for economic revitalization. Laying the foundation for long-term economic stability and prosperity while addressing immediate crises is essential.

Ongoing reforms and debt restructuring are essential for achieving long-term stability and promoting inclusive growth. The government must prioritize revenue mobilization, social spending, and social safety-net reforms while addressing challenges relating to debt sustainability and the outflow of skilled professionals. Other key priorities include implementing governance reforms, fostering social cohesion, empowering civil society, particularly the youth, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy.

If unsuccessful, the situation could be disastrous. However, at the same time, implementing tumultuous change may alienate friends and allies, leading to a political stalemate, a right-wing backlash, or an authoritarian capitalist setup. The rise of authoritarian capitalism accompanied by majoritarian communalism could tear the social fabric apart. The government’s agenda needs to broker the social compromises needed to build a broad, cross-sectional alliance for structural change.

The NPP’s agenda seeks a peaceful transition through established political processes, differing from traditional Marxism which anticipates the collapse of capitalism. Realpolitik suggests that capitalism adapts various forms, such as imperialism and neoliberalism, and currently seen in “authoritarian capitalism” and figures like Donald Trump. This approach is rooted in populism, often proposing simplistic and draconian nationalist solutions to issues.

Authoritarian capitalism could lead to global economic slowdowns and geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting Sri Lanka’s future prospects. Domestically, resistance to reform, and social unrest, could hinder the inclusive growth needed to reduce inequality and support economic recovery.

Historically, developing countries have attracted investment and boosted exports by leveraging cheap labour, fostering growth. However, automation and digitization are diminishing this advantage. In response, Sri Lanka’s government has shifted its focus, while other nations are nearshoring manufacturing operations to enhance their resilience.

The transition from authoritarianism to participatory capitalism is a complex process and it needs time. The future ultimately lies in a socially owned economy based on economic and workplace democracy, with employee self-management at its heart. Modern socialists aim to abolish capitalism through gradual, reformist, or revolutionary transitions, aligning with freedom, equality, and solidarity.

The NPP government aims to create a just and equitable future. Despite a progressive political agenda, the government faces opposition from entrenched state practices, corrupt traditions, and a politicized and inefficient bureaucracy reliant on political orders. The centre-left government has been in power for approximately 125 days and faces challenges adapting a new and a better work culture within a coalition framework. This requires compromises, including acknowledging the plurality of Sri Lankan society, which consists of a majority of Sinhala Buddhists.

In this context, a coalition work culture demands recognition of diverse perspectives, building consensus through inclusive processes, and following a pragmatic path as outlined in the NPP program— ‘A Thriving Nation and a Beautiful Life’. Consensus-building involves effectively communicating with all communities to foster confidence in building a positive future for all.

Furthermore, the NPP government appears to be facing hurdles due to limited administrative experience and reliance on bureaucratic advice. Addressing macro-scale issues requires adopting a comprehensive political and legal policy framework that is, and also seen fair, democratic, and consultative for all stakeholders.

Accountability for past injustices remains unresolved. The Aragalaya campaign called for democratic reforms, an end to corruption, and accountability. Even 15 years after the end of the civil war, victims, their families, and those who suffered severe collateral damages are still waiting for the truth, justice, and reparation. The last seven decades witnessed enforced disappearances of tens of thousands. Hundreds of thousands were killed, and their bodies were disposed of with no post-mortems.

Due to the impunity granted to the perpetrators, no satisfactory and meaningful progress has been achieved so far. The government needs to make all the necessary changes to ensure accountability and justice for the wrongs done in the past. The government’s position regarding the full implementation of the nearly four-decades-old 13th Amendment in the Constitution still lacks clarity. A comprehensive policy framework that ensures dignity, equality, and economic development for marginalized communities while respecting their cultural identities, is needed to address the National Question. Equal citizenship and a shared economy for all are crucial in this regard.

Conclusion

The Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war exposed economic vulnerabilities in developing countries. In Sri Lanka, identity politics could deepen cultural divides, marginalizing smaller communities and threatening democracy, which may lead to poverty and internal conflicts, favouring right-wing politics and authoritarianism.

To prevent this, the government must adopt an inclusive social democratic agenda that promotes equal rights and opportunities. Economic growth depends on developing startups in agriculture, manufacturing, and services using advanced technologies and skills. Appropriately addressing industrialization, power generation, and export strategies is crucial to avoid issues like pollution.

Social welfare programs need to be better targeted. Law enforcement faces scrutiny due to recent custodial deaths. Renewable energy development appears to have lagged, with a costly and risky future option of nuclear energy being explored. The continuation of previous solar projects from 1994 onwards might have made Sri Lanka less reliant on expensive, polluting non-renewable energy sources.

While economic shoots of recovery are discernible, the economy remains vulnerable. The government works within IMF limits to stabilize and grow the economy inclusively. Changes to the Economic Transformation Act and property tax aim to balance public sector size and wealth distribution. Removing car import restrictions could raise balance of payments and other concerns, despite increased reserves.

Skilled professionals leaving the country may slow down as the economy strengthens. Attracting the diaspora requires developing favourable socio-political and economic environment. The government shows promise in addressing citizens’ needs and concerns.

In conclusion, Sri Lanka’s future hinges on ending discrimination and violence and pursuing an inclusive path for all. For that an inclusive national vision should address socio-economic and cultural conflicts, strengthening democracy, justice, accountability, and reconciliation.

The world, including Sri Lanka, is still at crossroads. We owe it to those who agitated, struggled, and sacrificed their lives for a better world, to remember their battles and to learn from them to build a more equitable, and socially inclusive society.