By Tisaranee Gunasekara –

“Ordered disorder, planned caprice, And dehumanized humanity…” ~ Brecht (The Exception and the Rule)

In 2009, Mahinda Rajapaksa conquered Sri Lanka. In 2010, he set out to conquer the world, with an address to the Oxford Union. Though the visit was a private one, a 100+ delegation accompanied the president, at public expense (it was after all December, the Christmas shopping season).

The memory of the war was still raw. Lankan Tamils in the UK protested. Fearing a controversy, the Oxford Union rescinded the invitation.

President Rajapaksa had just finished giving an interview to The Times (arranged by Bell Pottinger, the public relations firm the regime had hired at considerable expense) when the news came. “The most telling moments in the Times interview with President Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka came after it was over. For almost an hour in a suite in the Dorchester, Mr. Rajapaksa had painted a picture of his government and country that was as white and spotless as his traditional garb… His large entourage, ranged on sofas around the room, nodded in rapt agreement at every word the President said. Then just as we were about to leave an emissary was sent to the lobby to summon us back. Mr. Rajapaksa looking both angry and crestfallen, met us in the corridor, to declare that the president of the Oxford Union no longer wanted him to give a speech today… ‘I think he has been threatened by these fellows’ snapped Mr. Rajapaksa a man, one suspects, not used to being disinvited” (Sri Lanka never killed any civilians as such – Rajapaksa – The Times –2.12.2010).

In Colombo, acolytes busied themselves concocting salves for the bruised ego of their master. Some organised a massive reception at the Katunayake airport. Others accused UNP parliamentarian Dr Jayalath Jayawardene of masterminding the fiasco (for no other reason than a visit to the UK a few days previously). Dinesh Gunawardena called him traitor. A posse of UPFA heavyweights led by Ministers Gunawardena and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa crossed the well of the house and tried to manhandle Dr Jayawardene, demanding that he be expelled from parliament for violating the 6^th Amendment to the constitution.

A review of George W Bush’s memoir ‘Decision Points’, claims that “by Bush’s own account, revenge is among his chief motives in sanctioning torture” (New Yorker – 29.11.2010). President Rajapaksa reacted to the Oxford fiasco with an act of exclusion, vengeful and petty; he banned the singing of the national anthem in Tamil. The practice of singing the national anthem in Tamil was a “shortcoming that must be rectified” he stated (The Sunday Times – 12.12.2010; the ban was removed in 2015, re-imposed during the Gota years, and removed by President Ranil Wickremesinghe).

In 2010, the Tamils were still the enemy. The possibility of Muslims becoming the next national threat seemed remote. Yet, the replacement of the ethnic enemy with a religious enemy began to be considered in extremist quarters just months after the war ended. In December 2009, for instance, Christian fundamentalists were accused of murdering Ratmalane Seelavansa Thero, head of Soma Himi Chinthana Padanama (Soma Thero Thinking Foundation) for trying to stop a wave of Christianisation in Anuradhapura. An internet video making the accusation was titled, This is how Christian fundamentalists kill Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka. In February 2012, at a meeting of the Joint Committee of Buddhist Organisations, Ven. Medagama Dhammanada Thera connected the dots. “Today religious terrorism has replaced LTTE terrorism… Christian organisations were responsible for spreading disharmony among Sinhalas and Tamils (Asian Tribune – 14.2.2010).

In just over two years, the Tamil enemy and the Christian enemy would be superseded by the Muslim enemy.

In Sri Lanka, the past if often the present. The Rajapaksas and their former acolytes are already trying to redefine the political centre in Sinhala-Buddhist supremacist terms, again. When the NPP/JVP government released some military-occupied land in the North in November 2024, Namal Rajapaksa resorted to classic Rajapaksa dog-whistling, hinting at insecurity and betrayal. Sinhala Ravaya is already calling President Dissanayake ‘King Elara of Tambuttegama’, a Diaspora agent trying to rejuvenate the Tigers and start the next Eelam War. Udaya Gammanpila is hinting that Ravi Seneviratne and Shani Abeysekara are agents of the Catholic church, forced on the government by Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith (the cardinal and the politician both backed Gotabaya Rajapaksa once). The ethno-religious baiting will increase in frequency and virulence as the government bungling and SJB/UNP ineptitude intensifies. The only unknown is the response of the electorate. Will 2029 be a worse 2019?

Germination

In 2010, an absolute majority of Sinhalese voted for the Rajapaksas not just out of gratitude for winning the war, but also in the expectation of an instant developmental miracle. They believed that High-king Mahinda would banish want and usher in prosperity, quickly and painlessly. Those hopes still burnt bright in 2011. According to an opinion survey by the Centre of Policy Analysis (CPA), 70% of Sinhalese thought that the general economic situation will get better in the next two years.

Optimism eroded over the next two years. By 2013, only 38.5% of Sinhalese believed the general economic situation will improve in the coming two years. Rising disillusionment was causing cracks in the Sinhala-Buddhist voter base of the Rajapaksas. A new threat was imperative. The Tamil enemy and the Christian enemy were not working. That left the Muslim enemy.

In April 2012, a monk-led mob attacked a mosque in Dambulla. The mob was there by invitation: “If you are a great Sinhala Buddhist, if you are a Helaya who thinks of the country and the nation, for the sake of the future generation you cannot keep your eyes and ears close. Save Rangiri-Dambulu sacred area. The time has come to end the silence. Let’s rise against the Mussalman invasion against Rangiri Dambulu sacred area”. The purported issue was the ‘illegal construction’ of a mosque on a land belonging to the ancient Dambulla temple. “The protestors were calling for the demolition of the mosque claiming that Dambulla is a holy area exclusive to only Buddhists and that the mosque is situated in a sacred area” (Ceylon Today – 20.4.2012).

The day before the demonstration, the mosque was patrol-bombed. No perpetrator was caught. The authorities professed ignorance; “when contacted, police spokesman SP Ajith Rohana said he had no information about such an incident” (Sri Lanka Mirror – 20.4.2012). Soon after the demonstration, President Mahinda Rajapaksa visited to the Chief Priest of the Dambulla temple who was instrumental in organising the mob. In June that year, the BBS strode onto the political stage, fully formed. Within months, the anti-halal campaign was launched. From that to the violence in Aluthgama was but a short and inevitable step.

The Muslim enemy did not save the Rajapaksas from defeat. But it paved the way for future disasters, from the anti-Muslim violence of Digana, the Easter Sunday massacre, the Gotabaya presidency, and the bankrupting of Sri Lanka.

The NPP/JVP is not racist. But it’s more non-racist than anti-racist, preferring to shelve thorny issues in favour of sugary rhetoric about unity, fraternity, and peace. That suffices to keep the racist floods at bay, for now. But whether it will suffice once disillusionment sets in, and the voters begin to feel deceived and cheated is quite another matter. As Robert Kaplan pointed out in his 1993 essay, The Coming Anarchy, everyday economics (food, water, employment) indirectly inflame existing ethnic, religious, and tribal divides.

The danger would be negligible if the non-racist opposition had the potential to become an attractive alternative to the NPP/JVP government. But with Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa leading the UNP and the SJB, the chances of either party being able to inspire future voters with confidence, hope, and trust are minimal.

In 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake won because his two main rivals were Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe. In 2029, if voters are faced with the same lacklustre alternatives, the possibility of the SLPP surging from its current 3% to victory is far from negligible.

Future extremist?

During the first year of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government, overt racism stayed more or less dormant. The Rajapaksas, believing in their own propaganda, depended on Mahinda Sulanga to lift them to victory at the parliamentary election (they truly believed in a repentant electorate shedding tears of guilt and remorse). That calculation misfired, the UNP won the parliamentary election of August 2015, and Ranil Wickremesinghe became the prime minister.

In the ensuing months, the government’s interest in political reform and economic relief started to wane.

In December 2015/January 2016, a movement named Sinha Le (Blood of the Lion) strode onto the political stage, fully formed and flushed with money. Its main activities included sticking Sinha Le stickers on vehicles, writing Sinha Le on the gates of some Muslim houses in Nugegoda, vociferous demands for a pure Sinha Le (lion-only) national flag, and insistence on a Sinha Le national anthem (no to the singing of the national anthem in Tamil). The entire enterprise was a Rajapaksa-backed effort to reignite minority phobia in general and Muslim phobia in particular among Sinhala-Buddhists, and use that fear as a pathway for power.

The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration did not deal in ethno-religious racism. But it did not stand up to it either. Indifference rather than resistance was their mode. With this abdication of responsibility by the government, an enabling space was created for blood-and-faith nationalism to regrow.

Carl von Clausewitz described war as the continuation of politics by other means. To survive and thrive, the Rajapaksa project needed to continue the war by political, ideological, and propaganda means. It was so then. It remains so now.

The Rajapaksas and their former acolytes (who are likely to regroup, when the time comes) are trying to follow a similar path today. Anything is grist to that mill of hate-mongering. Little wonder they have embraced Elon Musk and his Orwellian Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE; which is determined to gut the Department of Education, environment and consumer protection laws in the US, and make it easier for a small group of oligarchs to exploit people and nature for super profits).

Wimal Weerawansa, who pioneered the term the war of wombs and accused Dr Shafi of ethnic cleansing by sterilising more than 25,000 Sinhala-Buddhist mothers, is at it again. This time, his target is the USAID-funded Lankan programme, Media Empowerment for a Democratic Sri Lanka (MEND). This programme commenced under the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration and continued under Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe administrations. It concluded only last year and was in operation the whole time Mr Weerawansa was a minister under President Gotabaya. Nor was it done in secret. Its activities were carried out in the public eye, with much fanfare. (Incidentally, I’ve never been a part of this or any other USAID programme).

But for Wimal Weerawansa, MEND is the new Dr Shafi. The programme aimed at destroying our culture and reducing our population, says he. Not just ethnic cleaning but also culture cleansing. Looks like in the next round, the enemy is more likely to be Christian or Tamil than Muslim.

So long as the economic pain and disenchantment of the electorate are kept within bounds, the hate-mongering is unlikely to succeed. But the NPP/JVP government might not be able to keep disillusionment at bay for long, given its debilitating inexperience and comic ineptitude (NPP minister’s electricity wandura is as bad as Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s kudu poosa). Already, SLPP supporters have a striking new slogan – haal ne, pol, ne, lunu ne (no rice, no coconut, no salt). The line cannot but strike a chord given the essential nature of these three items (even where there is no shortage, prices have gone up).

So when hope evaporates, things fall apart and the centre is poisoned with fear and hate, we won’t need to ask what rough beast is slouching towards Colombo to be born, for we know it well.  We have lived under it before. This time will be the Third Coming.