23 October, 2017

The Sirisena Surge – And Why Mahinda Is Still Way Ahead

By Dayan Jayatilleka

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Two cheers then for Maithripala Sirisena whose act of resistance and rebellion is truly heroic. Why cheer at all? And why two cheers instead of three?  Hearty cheers are entirely warranted because Maithripala Sirisena has produced a Black Swan event; a real game changer.

Having argued in the print and electronic media for years that Ranil Wickremesinghe should not be the Opposition’s presidential candidate, that a viable Opposition candidate must be one whose profile would cut into the incumbent’s monopoly of populist-patriotism, and as someone who has commended Maithripala Sirisena on many of my fortnightly TV shows, I am delighted at his candidacy. However, I am unconvinced about his electoral prospects and platform.

Maithripala Sirisena has rendered the Presidential election a real race instead of the walkover it would have been with Ranil Wickremesinghe as Mahinda’s opponent.

More importantly he has reintroduced competition and balance into a hitherto unipolar system.

Even if he loses the Presidential election, he would hopefully have founded a dissident SLFP; a centrist alternative to the populist neo-conservatism of the Rajapaksa regime.

Thereby he would have made feasible the prospect of defeating the government at the parliamentary election or at a referendum.

That’s the upside; now for the downside. For starters the joint Opposition’s widely-rumored plan to defeat the Budget is short-sighted. This Budget was intentionally populist in content and character, and any defeat in the legislature will permit the President to credibly depict the joint opposition as having deadlocked the process which would have permitted material benefits to accrue to the public. As the public did when Congress gridlocked President Obama, public opinion will swing against the parliamentarians and in favor of the incumbent. He will then prorogue parliament, hold the Presidential election, and translate his victory into a renewed dominance of the legislature.

That isn’t even the main weakness of the Sirisena challenge. The flaws in the joint opposition platform were all on display at the inaugural media conference. Maithripala Sirisena himself fared well, pitching it more or less right. Then it all began to go retro and sag, with Rajitha Senaratne taking too much time with his political autobiography –one would have thought him the candidate rather than Sirisena—followed by a prolonged and self-justificatory lamentation by CBK.

This poses the question as to whether Maithripala will be allowed to offer a better future for the country – a “Maithripaalanaya”—or whether the message is that of a return to the golden era of the Bandaranaikes, and especially of CBK. This is of no small consequence. The utterly fundamental fact that Mr. Sirisena’s loquacious companions at the media conference (who should have left time for Vasantha Senanayake and Arjuna Ranatunga some speaking time) failed to grasp is this: the vast majority of this country clearly and emphatically prefer the flawed but peaceful present, to the past of war and weakness as a nation. Simply put, if the choice is the flawed present and memories of the past, the voters much prefer the Mahinda Rajapaksa present—siblings and all– to the Chandrika past. The country was ripped apart and the State was weak then. We are at peace and much stronger now. That is something that neither CBK nor Rajitha seem to understand.  This was the fatal flaw of Sirimavo Bandaranaike too—she just did not get the point that in the public mind, even JR Jayewardene’s presidency seemed vastly better than the memories of her glorious years at the helm.

Maithripala Sirisena must foreground himself and not CBK. He must seem a kinder gentler Mahinda Rajapaksa, just as Clinton seemed a kinder gentler Reagan and Tony Blair a kinder gentler Thatcher, who would consolidate the positives of their formidable predecessors, while moving forward, not back to the future.

Compounding these weaknesses is the very weakest point in the Maithripala Sirisena platform: his promises to abolish the executive Presidency in one hundred days and to appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe as his PM. In the first place there isn’t a shred of evidence in the form of a public opinion poll that the majority of voters wish the executive Presidency abolished. Thus Maithripala’s campaign seeks to convince the voters of two things, not just the one—turn away from Mahinda Rajapaksa and endorse a radical, potentially risky dismantling of an entire system. This would turn the Presidential election into a double referendum—on Mahinda Rajapaksa who dominates the political landscape and on the executive presidency which the masses have become accustomed to over for decades. Now that’s a tall order. In a conservative society that’s far too much of a psychological change to expect in a short time and in one fell swoop. It is too much to swallow. Athureliya Rathana and Champika Ranawaka’s suggestion of a slimmed down Presidency is much more palatable.

As if this weren’t bad enough, there is Maithripala’s pledge to make Ranil the PM. Why should anyone vote for Maithripala if he is not going to be the president after a hundred days while Ranil is going to be PM? What happens to the man the people have voted for, after the act of abolition? Since the Prime Ministership is going to be the power center after the Executive presidency is dismantled, would the people wake up to find they had unwittingly elected Ranil as their leader? If not, and if Maithripala is going to the Executive PM, then what happens to Prime Minister Ranil?

There are plenty of reasons to vote for Maithripala if he were running for the presidency, pure and simple. He may lead the country better, if only because Mahinda Rajapaksa has allowed himself to be a poster boy for his family clan and their thuggish and crooked courtiers. But why should anyone vote for Maithripala only to find that Ranil and Chandrika are back in power, having done what they tried to but failed to do in 2005, colluding against Mahinda? Are we to move forward or backwards? If the voters sense a risk that it will be a ride back on a time machine; that Maithripala will be used, dominated and discarded by Ranil and Chandrika; that he is just a front man for them rather than his own man, then the voters will, quite understandably and even rightly, opt to remain with Mahinda.

Without a clear roadmap, the voters are being asked to opt for something like chaos and a political vacuum. Right now, the joint opposition’s discourse is a lot of white noise.

Both Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena seem like masks or human shields for their respective blocs: Mahinda for his avaricious family-centred oligarchy and Maithripala for Chandrika, Ranil and the old guard. Of these two combinations, the collective Sinhala voter psyche will almost certainly prefer Mahinda and Gotabaya to Maithripala, Ranil and CBK.

There is only one way to rectify and thereby save the Maithripala campaign and the political space he has opened up. Only one way to prevent this moment from ending up like the Arab Spring, with the Empire striking back due to the dumbness of the democratic Opposition. That is  to bring in Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Champika Ranawaka and Sajith Premadasa — sharp young personalities and compelling speakers, none of whom are yesterday’s men — to the centre of the policy process, the campaign planning and the head table, flanking Maithripala.  Mr. Sirisena is a brave and decent man; possibly our last hope. He deserves better than to be overshadowed or drowned out by his current companions and patrons who represent and recall the failures of a past from which Mahinda Rajapaksa, to his lasting credit, rescued the country.

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Latest comments

  • 15
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    Hello Comrade Dr.DJ,
    It is high time for you to become humble and learn from straight forward simple politician like Mano Ganeshan .Mano is also like you , a Srilankan Citizen by birth and did not run away from the country.
    He doesn’t have dual citizenship like those who claim they are patriots who are protecting the soverignity of Sri Lanka by defending the Sinhala Buddhist supremacy.

    Mano has given his views on the latest political developments.
    He doesn’t have a PhD but have honesty, wisdom, straight forwardness and sincereity.

    Comrade Dr DJ, you should seriously consider doing field work like comrade Mao or Castor and educate the ordinary people in the country side so that they become politically savy. You also can translate your analyis to Sinhalese. Will the majority accept your preaching ? We have to wait and see .

  • 0
    10

    Chandrika- Maithiri is Sonia-Manmohan Singh repetation?

    The star candidate CBK has backed off. If she can win, her past crime records can be an impediment. If she loose like Fonseka she would face more than what Fonseka faced. This is true for Maithri too. There won’t any exception on that. Maithri, who has been tracked for more than an year certainly has left something for government. Soon his sone and his brother will be apparearing on the witness stand to point hand at Maithiripala Sirisena.

    If Maithri’s departure creates a turmoil in the SLFP, a consolidation of the power in the party is unavoidable. Then one can say anything about election is only after seeing what is going to the shape of the consolidation. But, if everything goes smooth, winning the election is piece of cake for King. On the other side, a large dissertation from SLFP can stir UNP too. If may not leave the coherent alone in the Rank and file of the UNP.

    Is he really can move the mass. Or is this started on a gamble of getting the anti government vote? Does the SLFPyers are seeing him as the SLFP candidate of Traitor? Will the UNPERs like CBK sitting on the top of the party and place a candidate for UNP. Will people want to see the winning SLFP lose the power after election and losing UNP start to rule.

    It is a funny notion that Ranil cannot contest for Parliamentary election and become the Prime Minister, but he can be appointed by Maithiripala who is under control of CBK.

    Is this another Sonia Manmohan Singh’s failed Drama?

  • 19
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    Dayan Jayatilleka,Seems like you trying hard to convince MR to be appointed as the successor of Chris Nonis? Strange that you didn’t realize that it’s the beginning of the end.

  • 4
    4

    No Matter what common candidate the opposition would field, this country will always be with the Jarra-Paksha’s. Although I have my disagreements with DJ, he is partly correct. The Sinhala Modaya’s will always be modayas no matter what. Therefore, blaming the likes of DJ for his theories is not going to get us anywhere. This election will also be fraudulent, and fail to ouster a corrupt the MR-Mafia regime that has done well to militarize the country. Even if any opposition win the election, the Jarra_Paksha’s will remain in control of the country because any newly elected president from the opposition will suffer the same fate like president Morsi suffered in Egypt. Unlike in Egypt, the West will not be the spoiler where Sri Lanka is concerned. The West did frame Morsi to the ‘Brotherhood’. With the blessing of evil forces of China and Russia, our autocrats will sway the military to take over and instill yet another dictator called Goatabaya; another General Fattah El-Sisi in the making. Seems the local modaya’s have still not learned lessons from our past presidential election when commando brigades of the red caps were mobilized to besiege the Trans Asia hotel while the rug was being pulled under the feet of a torpedoed opposition. The only solution to liberate this country from the clutches of the Jarra Passa autocracy is an armed insurrection or a militarized solution to field a military-Sirisena who can vest control of a Joint Operations Command that can squash any military takeover of any dark horse para military unit loyal to the MR-Mafia. One solution I propose to any joint opposition is to ally with foreign allied forces and hire a private army or mercenary force like “Blackwater” aka Xi as a private army or from elsewhere. Good luck to Sri Lankan DEMOCRACY- if there is anything left of it!

    • 7
      3

      oh bother – You do need help – so much of hate against sinhala? I am glad CT is giving u a outlet otherwise u will need to be locked up- I bet u hv to grin and bear daily with Sinhala brethren and has no chance to vent ur pent up hate ?

    • 1
      2

      Gonral Romeeya

      We Sinahalese modayas? Really!!!!!!!!!! What about your brainless Leader Blood Sucking Podian Preba? I am sure he was really wise like you?

      Remebers our Moda Sinhala Army has given your monkey LTTE army mouthful and even our forces made sure your piggy had a mud-bath like a real pig before he kissed the dust.

      Therefore the remaining democary in SL is better than the democracy adopted by your blood sucking podian preba.

      • 3
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        Game Banda

        “We Sinahalese modayas?”

        Yes

        Really!!!!!!!!!!

        Really, Sinhala/Buddhist Modayas share their stupid gene with their Tamil Modayas.

        Truth is stranger than fiction.

      • 1
        1

        this native vaddha fellow in CT is like Aswer in parliament….

        His comments have no point where people generally ignore his comments.
        Always barging into others debates and thinks he is giving some insight :)

        whenever someone corner or question any anti-sinhala racist he comes up in-between just like aswer does in parliament to safeguard MR from his acts.

        • 2
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          sach

          Please feel free to ignore me.

    • 3
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      I have to agree with General Rommel.

      MR has already started to unleash his mercenary army against all opponents including Sirasa TV.

      MR will start another false flag Genocidal Massacre similar to 1983 when he see he is loosing the elections. This could unleash another wave massacre and unleash batch loads of refugees all over the world.

      Therefore it’s better ASAP all opposition parties to collectively ask for UN to send in UN peace keeping force to Sri Lanka. Also they could call in for UN CW and Indian Navies to guard Sri Lanka waters and to stand by operations if things go out of hand. Already there’s a case on 40,000 massacred innocent Tamil war victims in file. .

      Therefore it is better prepare now than regret later. Also call in for International Election Monitors Now and station them until elections are over.

  • 5
    2

    All the proper Colombo seats with a UNP majority will vote against MR. But the seats with a predominantly Sinhala Buddhist population such as Kesbewa, Maharagama, Kotte will go to MR but if 5% of the Sin-Bu vote in those seats also go to MS then the game is more competitive. MR will never get too many Muslim votes anymore because of BBS. MR will also never get Tamil votes and if the Tamil Tiger loving TNA does not scuttle the NE tamil vote, it will go to MS because they are still pro tiger and also vote enmasse as their leaders order them to. The key will be how much Thondaman will accept in gratuities to remain in the government. If by Dec 8th there are more defections from the old SLFP, he may cut a deal with CBK and MS because Thondaman always wants to be in the cabinet. So this is where money will change hands. Basil R must already be moving to bribe UNP MPs to cross over. There is bound to be a lot of horse trading going on. Deep South will still go to MR but again if only 5% of the Sin-Bu votes switches there will be a real race. But RW as some say is likely to get more hardcore UNP votes than this relatively unknown guy. He was also accused of(I am talking about MS) of being part of the rice mafia in Polonnaruwa district. So await mud slinging. What I was saddened and shocked by was how CBK was telling MS what to say. If this turns out to be a disgusting plot by CBK I would not vote for MS regardless of the blatant power grab and arrogance of the Rajapakses and the Wickremesuriyas and also his in-laws in the form of his brother in law who is ruining Sri Lankan airlines. If you watch the Video ,you can see CBK telling MS what to say and what not to say in response. This is sad. She may be playing a dirtier game to come back into the Parliament. I am betting on MR winning. Colombo city electorates had it wrong in 2010 too. They said SF will win. But I traveled outside Colombo extensively and everyone knew and said MR will win and they will vote for him. The move must be at least 5% of the Sin-Bu vote towards MS. 80% of Tamils, 75% of Muslims and even if 50% of Estate Tamils vote for MS then MR will lose but if he is in danger of losing I do not see a happy outcome. I see violence and military stepping in under the pretext of a global conspiracy. But it is clear also that it is GTF and other Eelam Terrorists groups that are most excited about this development. Will MR come out swinging against MS via RW who was a Tiger appeaser?

    • 2
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      not sure what you are upto mate?
      we did see that video and could not see or hear anything that CBK wanted MS to talk to the press… are you a mole of the Rajapaksas?

    • 2
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      Roger F.

      The war is going to be between recently power grabbed Rajapakses VS SLFP Founders Bandaranaikes.

      “Chaura Regina” Madam Chandrika was waiting for this opportunity for Nine long Years and finally she got it. Mahinda Rajapakse mis treated her during his reign and now she is in for her pound of flesh and blood.

      It’s better if Rajapakses leave the seat now than to face an exploding Lioness and regret later.

      Rajapakses mis-calculated her and her hidden powers. She has powerful Mangala, Maithree, Rajitha, all UNP, JVP, TNA, MC, Gen.Sarath Fonseka and a whole heap of Clergy and expatriate community to back her.

      Who Rajapakses have……..A bunch of crooks,thugs and drug importers, drunkard BBS and some UNP tourist birds. Nobody else. These are nothing for “Chaura Regina”

      Game over……Bye…bye…..MR Batty Boy already check mated…..Game over.

  • 0
    6

    Some of my close pals from DJ’s school are saying MS will get even less votes than RW and MR will win.

  • 8
    1

    Dayan the pretender:

    Having read the Title MR is way ahead I didnt even bother read the rest. Frankly you have proved who you really are and whose side you are on. In my book you are a born RACIST like MR and the 20 million others. Now for the fisrt time it has dawned on you that the writing is on the wall for MR which you really cant accept . So what do you do lament and if Sinhala Lanka is a true democracy people will vote with their heads and not their Heart as they did for the last 64 years.
    Make no mistake if MR is elected all this so called affluence people are enjoying on Credit Card from China will go up in flames. Electing MR makes it easy for the Western Countries to impose Sanctions after the UNHCR report in January. I am sure you are aware that the New man at the helm is even more Hawkish than Mrs.Pillai.

    For the peolpe of Sinhala Lanka it is a straight forward choice.

    Food on the Table vs MR

  • 5
    0

    Dayan has done what is predictably expected of him by MR, GR and BR – the sole source of political power in the country in the past decade. If one of the many Monitors the regime carefully uses to oversee the free media – men like Bandula J – see this piece DJ can be sure it will reach the right ears. DJ has gone to the defence of the faltering regime in as much as Rajpal A and Malinda S. After all they owe their positions and their livelihood to “protect” the regime. Why not? It is a free country and rats have their roles to play.

    Interestingly, Dayan’s intellectual twin and fellow traveller Rajiv W – Christian he is, a bad word these days -seems to have abandoned ship and joined the “traitors to the Sinhala Buddhist cause in the growing International-NGO-Tamil diaspora-Christian-Indian-UN conspiracy” to defeat the Rajapakse family.

    But there are too many contradictions in this hurriedly written piece by DJ. Surely, DJ does not mean what he says as he notes “Maitripala – possibly our last hope” Or does one read this together with
    DJs speculation in any future arrangement Sajith P -surely a Dayan supporter – should be included. By gad, the plot is getting thicker and thinner simultaneously. “Why should anyone vote for Maitripala only to find Ranil and CBK are back in power” speculates DJ and in the process risks losing his reputation as a neutral political analyst of some substance. And then he goes to warn us all – not excluding Mr. Sirisena- “Maitripala will be used and discarded by Ranil and CBK” Why, good Sir, can this not be the other way around? In breaking away, still wearing the garb of General Secretary of the SLFP, Sirisena tells the country and the world the SLFP is now irreversibly split and that he is joining Ranil and CBK to save the Party and the country. We see similarities in the action taken by the late and respected CP de Silva (1964) half a century ago “to remain a free man in a free society” in circumstances where one see many similarities.

    The bad news for DJ and his side is Janaka Bandara Tennekoon might not be the only one to chose to abandon ship from the Sinhala mainland. There will be many more – and that can include PM DM Jayaratne as well.
    DJ frantically continues to re-assure the beleaguered Rajapakse family “the collective Sinhala vote pshyche will prefer Mahinda and Gothabaya”

    Dayan J, good Sir, we beg to disagree. Ask your friend, Rajiv W, who is already batting for the other side.

    Kettikaran

    • 1
      0

      Kettikaran

      marvellous.

      Is it any wonder Dayan your resume is on “hold”.?

      • 1
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        dj, you are going to lose your expected posting to your friend rw. However one is no better than the other!

  • 7
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    The main strategy of Mahinda Rajapaksa seems to be to brand the Opposition’s campaign as a ‘FOREIGN CONSPIRACY’ to destabilize the country. The government must have hired a PR company to establish this point. Obviously, in the coming period, it will place news items and articles in the media to establish this ‘PERCEPTION’ in people’s mind. Also, Rajapaksas will bribe many journalists to promote this ‘rationale’. Therefore, the Opposition’s task is to counter this strategy.

    [Meanwhile, let me say this: The moment Mahinda Rajapakksa realises he is going to lose, the game will change. Rajapaksas are not going to give up their wealth and power on the results of this election. They have a lot to lose. Remember, they are implicated in corruption and far more sinister activities. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if “Gota” is already conspiring within the military establishment to takeover if worse comes to worst. Therefore, the Opposition will have to realistically prepare for many unexpected developments.]

    • 0
      0

      Yes, anything is possible. In the event of a Gota’s military coup, the only hope for the people may be JVP led mass, non-violent rebellion!

      Sengodan. M

    • 2
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      I can’t believe the silly plans of these anti-srilankan/anti-sinhala cahoots. People want a more democratic, law abiding, gentler version of Mahinda. Not a trojan horse for Ranil to come into power. If the cahoots allowed Ranil to compete against Rajapakshe like he wanted he could have gained more votes than this silly plan. In the end Ranil would be blamed for the defeat and the cahoots will move onto their next prey.

    • 0
      0

      Vasantha Raja.

      Yes Anything is possible including free “Parippu” Dhal drop, this time not only from India but from rest of the other generous countries. So be prepared for it.

      After 1983 Massacre nobody wants another wave of Refugees in their countries and they will prefer to send in their seventh fleet or fighter bombers to stop anymore genocidal massacres.

      Remember what happened to Gadaffi, Saddham Husain or Mugabe. Could repeat next in Sri Lanka.

      Now we have SMS, instagram, face book, youtube and Internet with Fool proof.

  • 4
    0

    “Why should anyone vote for Maithripala Sirisene, if he is not going to be the president after hundred days while RANIL is going to be PM?’’

    At last some sensible points about yesterday’s announcement.

    Don’t you think it’s bizarre to tell voters “ vote for me and I’ll commit hara-kiri and BTW you’ll get Ranil as PM”.

    Let me put it another way for people who are familiar with UK politics: It’s like George Osborne crossing over to the Labour Party and expecting Conservatives and UKIP to vote for him, and if elected, Ed Miliband will be appointed as the Prime Minister!

  • 1
    0

    The point,however, is that Dayan failed to grasp the simmering unrest within the SlFP and the potentiality of a particular determination in the form of Maithripala to transcend its particularity and encounter the universal dimension. He had no notion of the potential return of the excluded within the SLFP.

  • 1
    0

    Comrade Dayan Jayatilleka,

    As usual this is another bad forecast. Other than writing what you predict, could you come up with some statistics, market research, surveyors, recent political and election voting histories etc,etc to back up your predictions.

    You should know that the next Presidential election is not going to be between the UPFA and the UNP, but between Rajapakse brothers and the rest of the opposition parties including UNP, JHU, JVP, DP,TNA,MC, and SLFP etc.
    All the rest of the Rajapakse UPFA ministers and MP’s cannot bring in any reasonable votes to the table.

    Pres. ajapakses has already accepted his defeat. That’s the reason why he blocked yesterday’s live Satana TV program.

    Now Rajapakses are onto Thug tactics to intimidate their rivals and opposition parties and their supporters.

    Rajapakses are playing “Hara Kiri” with Sri Lanka politics. Rajapakses will go to any extent, even to annihilate the total opposition party members to hold onto power since thare’s no other exit point. Remember LTTE VP. Same here.

    Already Rajapakses are calling Pres. candidate Maithreepala Sirisena a Foreign conspiracy to subdue Opposition common candidate and his supporters.

    THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS TO OUR COUNTRY.ALL OPPOSITION PARTIES SHOULD CALL IN FOR UN AND CW MONITORS AND SECURITY PERSONNEL TO PROTECT OPPOSITION PARTIE THEIR LIVES.

    Leave alone elections. This should be a wake up call and an urgent request to International community to intervene to protect Sri Lankan Citizens from Rajapakse genocidal regime who could instigate another 1983 Genocidal Massacre against their opponents during elections.

    Rajapakses have already admitted their 2015 Presidential election defeat.

  • 2
    2

    As Dayan Jayathilake says if This govt is the Rajapakse clan playing the cards, a govt of President Paithripala Sirisena with CBK and Ranil certainly will be better.

    OF course, we never find the perfect govt.

    but, we can down the mistakes or errors.

    Certainly this govt is dictatorial and heavily corrupt. Now, it is exposed by the Ex-ministers of the govt and says that president and his sibilings ran the whole thing and humongous cabinet were just standing puppets.

    That is why the humongous cabinet was heavily ineffective.

    Mahinda Chintanaya was just a dictatorship and micromanagement by one individual.

  • 2
    0

    My J,
    Why is it that you say to the Lakbima newspaper that things are looking positive in the Sri Lankan political arena BUT in English you put out a very negative on MS’s candidacy… why oh why do you say one thing in English on CT and something thats slightly different in Sinhala on the Lakbima newspaper?
    It’s like the Sri Lankan foreign service… they say something to the world, and something totally different to the local populace.

  • 2
    0

    Maithripala Sirisena’ name has long been mentioned in some media articles as a CBK loyalist. He along with Ratnasiri Wickremanayake and D.S. Jayaratne and many others were said to be unhappy with the family banditry of the Rajapaksas.

    So after the incident involving his son and being passed over for the PM position,it was always a question of when Sirisena would make such a decision. Now many SLFP’ers will be in the same position as many eastern province Tamil politicians and administrators were in the wake of the Karuna split within the LTTE. They would make calculations in their minds as to which side would emerge victorious and which side would be more likely to be a threat to their prospects.

    Starting as far back as 2009, I made the argument (On GV and then CT) that only a black swan event could change the political course of SL and true reconciliation was impossible until that happened. Mahesan Niranjan pooh-poohed it, saying ‘black swan’ events were truly ‘rare’ and unexpected and therefore no political strategy could be based on it. But I suggested that just like the Karuna revolt and the Sarath Fonseka’s dissent, these events were not entirely unpredictable; that for those in the know, these are not true ‘black swan’ events, even though we sometimes use that term loosely. Fast forward 5 years, and no reconciliation has happened, and only such a black swan event is giving people some hope. Even though a win by the opposition is by no means a certainty, it gives them hope and makes them more enthused and energized.

    Indeed, on the pages of GV and CT, I was probably the first one to use term ‘black swan’; I had argued that a confluence of events amounting to a black swan had aided the GoSL in its war against the LTTE; that the chest-thumping by the Rajapaksas that it was their ‘leadership’ and ‘political will’ that won the war–and your hosannas to them– was misleading.

    Now with the SLFP split, with even your pal Rajiva Wijesinha in the opposition; with Sarath Fonseka supporting the common opp candidate, and the JHU trying to desert the Rajapaksas, your argument that Sinhalese masses will continue to overwhelmingly support the Rajapaksas is very shrill. Rajapaksas may still use every trick, threat and blandishment to win the election again, but even if they win, there could well be violent revolt against them within the Sinhalese society.

    Though the Karuna revolt and the tsunami had weakened the LTTE, there were those, including your pal Taraki Sivaram, who maintained the illusion of undiminished LTTE strength in the media. Now you are playing a similar role to the Rajapaksas.

  • 1
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    Come on Dr.Jayatilleka. Give us CT readers your points to show your analysis as to how Pres.Rajapakse going to win next Presidential elections.

    Remember this elections are going to be between Rajapakses VS UPFA founding fathers of Bandaranaikes and Madam Chandrika is in for a big fight to rescue her father’s party from a current corrupt ruling regime.

    Very soon the voters will hear all the Rajapakse corruptions, money laundering and illicit deals with proof and this could lead to a violent mass violence and mass agitation against the Regime.

    Did you read today’s CT news on UNP Tissa Attnayake getting 500 million rupee bribe from Pres.Rajapakse to cross over to UPFA. Could you find where the money is banked. Is this the way Rajapakses plan to win Presidential elections. Please let us know. Rule by corruption, nepotism and thuggery.

    Therefore it’s better to call in for International Peace keeping force ASAP to Sri Lanka to save it’s peoples lives before things get out of control.

    Leave alone elections,you may also expect another “Parippu” Dhal drop if things get worse and out of control.

    So better be prepared for coming days. Never say too late.

  • 0
    0

    “The issue of whether the current Constitution should be abolished or not, is a red herring. Though it is whipped up to a frenzy as the final answer to the nation’s current needs it is a non-issue. After the failure of three constitutions before (Soulbury, Colvin and JR) there is no guarantee that the next constitution, whatever it may be, is going to be the final answer”.- HDL Mahindapala on Colombo Telegraph

    • 0
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      Paul,

      The point is Sri Lankan politicians are still not mature enough to govern the country on their own accord. It is like asking a baby to ride a Motor bike, or giving a hand grenade to a Monkey. What can you expect from a Grade 10 math failed leader who is also the Finance Minister. Nothing but Total destruction.
      All the best brains are either kicked out or kept inside a cupboard.

      Mafia gangs rule the economy and the country.

      Until now no politician has any clue as to which way the country and it’s economy and society should be guided and directed. Nobody. On top of that we have 20 million mouths to feed, educate, give health and find jobs.

      On top of everything, since lately Sri Lanka is heading towards a selfish dictatorial monopolistic path. A ship guided by pirates with Black money.

      Someone should answer.

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    How can the UNP support a candidate who goes against liberal conservative policy. The country has descended into a state of ethnic politics wherein the human scum of CBK and Rajapaksa thrive. Why do middle class morons from Colombo think that Ranil won’t win? He has a brilliant track record in terms of policy and is further if not for the actions of a certain Alles the real winner of previous presidential elections. I don’t want to live in a country wherein we select between two SLFP candidates but I would take established corruption over that of the greed of the disloyal shit Maithripala Sirisena. Here Colombo should be appropriated its rightful bulk of shame as it pretends that war crimes were not committed in a nation were electoral violence is rampant and further looks upon the civil conflict as some sort of victory.

    Gamini Dissanayaka, Lalith Athulathmudali, (to Premadasa) and now Ranil Wickremasinghe (to Sirisena). FUCK YOU COLOMBO!!!

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    “Why should anyone vote for Maithripala Sirisene, if he is not going to be the president after hundred days while RANIL is going to be PM?’’

    This is a very valid argument – it is the same thought many voters might have in their mind after listening to MS’s comments after his announcement as common candidate – Why anybody should vote MS to bring Ranil into power – why anybody should vote MS to bring back Bandaranayake tragedy into the politics again – After listening to MS I felt he is a worshipper of Bandaranayake and without any hesitation will be happy to do spade work for Chandrika (garbage of SL politis) — To make the matters worst he is worshipping Ranil ( the best eel in SL politics) — All in all this man MS has all the markings of a horse not a horse rider — I do not see why voter should select him as President – Dr Dayan – most of your arguments are on the dot – unfortunately most of our Sri Lankans are emotionally driven guys – when the emotion takeover them they fail to see logic in any argument – As leaders MR / GR combination is far more attractive to most of the voters in this country than lame ducks like MS or an Eel like Ranil – definitely a wicked , vulgar woman like CBK – Anura Kumara certainly would have been a 200% better common candidate –

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