By Tisaranee Gunasekara –
“Believe that a further shore is reachable from here.” – Seamus Heaney (The Cure at Troy)
The Kaduwela District Judge issued an enjoining order, forbidding the telecasting of ‘Janapathi Janahamuwa’, a long interview with Candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Elections Commissioner agreed to a set of proposals by election monitors, aimed at ensuring transparency in ballot-counting.
Hopefully these are omens of more democratic times to come.
It is hard to believe that the Rajapaksas would allow themselves to be defeated electorally. It is even harder to conceive of the Rajapaksas bowing out, in case of defeat.
But then the unthinkable has happened many times this election season, starting with the nomination of Maithripala Sirisena as the Common Candidate.
The SLFP-rebellion has reignited the democratic spirit within society. It also seemed to be having a knock-on effect on the state. For the first time since the impeachment, a flicker of resistance to Rajapaksa domination is discernible. Top Finance Ministry officials objected to the Treasury Secretary about the political use of state property; the OIC of Wanduramba, GL Keerthisinghe, resigned in protest against political interference in police work; provincial judiciaries ordered the arrest of several marauding UPFA politicos; the police actually complied.
Significantly, the UPFA did not rush to the upper judiciary to get the Kaduwela district court’s enjoining order cancelled. Was it because de jure Chief Justice informed his masters that the upper judiciary is beginning to find its collective-backbone?
Even the ITN obeyed the court order – another significant departure from the recent practice of hardline-state institutions (like the UDA) ignoring inconvenient court orders.
The Rajapaksas are bound to have a Plan B and a Plan C to hang on to power, in case of defeat. But the state – including the armed forces – are unlikely comply.
Post-18th Amendment, the Rajapaksa project had two seminal vulnerabilities – the succession was not ensured since the prime minister was a non-Rajapaksa; and the SLFP, deep down, was not quite a Rajapaksa-party.
The election was partly an attempt to close the first loophole. It inadvertently turned the second loophole into a sinkhole. Faced with a lifetime of political servitude, the SLFP began to crack. Given the semi-feudalist mindset of the party, the rebellion happened the only way it could – through the agency of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga.
It is this singular confluence of SLFP-rebellion and presidential election which has created a chance to eject Rajapaksas from power, peacefully and democratically.
That chance is a very real one.
It is also the final one.
‘You will see what happens’[ii]
On the last day of campaigning, the Daily Mirror provided the government and the opposition an equal opportunity to have their final say on its middle pages. There was an interview with Ranil Wickremesinghe on the op-ed page. And there was an interview with Rohitha Rajapaksa on the editorial page!
Unlike his earlier newspaper interviews, the youngest presidential offspring tired to affect a sober and serious mien. In making that effort, he inadvertently revealed his faith in autocracy: “I am of the view that if a country is to be developed, the leader should remain unchanged for a long time.”[iii]
His father and uncles would be in total agreement.
The Rajapaksas never meant this election to be a real contest. And if by some remote chance the Rajapaksas win again, they will move with all too imaginable ruthlessness to crush the opposition and destroy every flicker of democratic life in state and society, so that ‘the leader can remain unchanged’ until the grim reaper calls.
Three recent utterances indicate that future.
Minister Dulles Alahapperuma told the final UPFA media conference, “In case President Mahinda Rajapaksa wins Thursday’s election, legal action will be taken against foreign agencies and individuals who allegedly funded the common opposition election campaign and induced government ministers to cross over to the opposition…”[iv]
Bodu Bala Sena, which is campaigning hard for Candidate Rajapaksa, told the media that in the event of victory it will ask for the setting up of commissions to probe “Non-government organisations, political parties and politicians have been part of financing deals that have taken place”[v].
Finally UNP’s Malik Samarawickrama informed the media about a telephone conversation he had with Candidate Rajapaksa: “I had a call on the mobile phone from Lohan Ratwatte, the UPFA MP for the Kandy district. He passed the phone to HE the President. Mr. Rajapaksa accused me of doing all the damage to him in collaboration with Mangala Samaraweera. He said after the presidential election, when he wins, he would be a different President Rajapaksa. You will then see what happens.”[vi]
Given what happened to the war-winning army commander after he lost in 2010, it is all too easy to imagine what the Rajapaksas will do, if they win in 2015.
In the absence of proper opinion polls, accurate scientific predictions about the electoral outcome are not possible[vii]. The most that can be done is to combine statistical and political trends to create the likeliest scenario/s.
The UPFA polled 57.88% in the 2010 January presidential election. This increased to 60.33% in the 2010 April parliamentary election. Since then, the UPFA vote has been on a downward trend. At the local government elections its national average was 56.45%. At the provincial council elections this fell to 54%.
This statistical downward-trend confirms with politics. 2010 was the apogee of Rajapaksa popularity. (The UPFA did even better at the parliamentary election because the opposition was at its weakest). Since then the UPFA’s popularity has been waning, due mostly to economic issues.
The SLFP inner-party rebellion would have lost the Rajapaksas a slice of the blue-vote. Most of Northern and Eastern vote will go to the Opposition. If the opposition can equal Ranil Wickremesinghe’s 2005 performance in the other seven provinces, Maithripala Sirisena will win on January 9th. Politico-statistically, that is the more possible outcome.
The regime’s final rally in Kesbewa ended two hours before midnight. That was a clear sign of a campaign which had lost momentum.
The Rajapaksas, sensing the possibility of defeat, are trying to bridge the gap with naked, unadulterated racism.
The opposition campaign was far from being an epitome of reason and intelligence. But it did invite people to think through their own condition, rather than appealing to raw emotions. And it was not racist.
The Rajapaksa campaign, on the other hand, was dependent primarily on anti-reason; trying to incite ethno-religious fear, distrust and hatred was its main aim. As the final days approached, race-baiting became its sole recourse. A relentless effort was made to win, by addling Sinhala minds with minority hatred and phobia.
The Siblings and their minions do not care that they are poisoning minds and seeding future ethno-religious conflagrations. They do not care that they are making it difficult to the point of impossibility for Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims to coexist, at least with mutual forbearance.
If this is their idea of patriotism, it is far more honourable to be a traitor.
In 1988, the Republicans won the US Presidential election by inciting white-fear about blacks (though the infamous Will Horton ads[viii]).
Are the Sinhalese of 2015 as unintelligent as American-whites of 1988?
I think not.
[i] The title is a line from Auden’s poem, Spain
[ii] President Rajapaksa to Malik Samarawickrama – quoted in The Sunday Times – 4.1.2015
[iii] http://www.dailymirror.lk/60369/my-father-relieved-the-people-s-fear-and-pain
[iv] http://www.dailymirror.lk/60391/those-who-induced-mps-to-quit-govt-will-be-punished-dulles
[v] http://www.srilankamirror.com/news/item/1430-set-up-commission-to-probe-foreign-interventions-bbs-tells-president
[vi] The Sunday Times – Political Column – 4.1.2015
[vii] Take, for instance, the much talked about survey by the Mass Communication Department of the University of Kelaniya. As Senior Lecturer Manoj Jinadasa revealed (http://www.rupavahini.lk/main-news/sinhala-news/5070-2014-12-31.html) the respondents were not asked who they are likely to vote for; they were asked who they think is likely to win the election. The two questions – ‘Who are you likely to vote for?’ and ‘Who do you think is likely to win?’ – have different meanings. Many diehard opposition supporters fear that the government will win the election by foul means. But for some reason, the Kelaniya survey portrayed the answer to the second question as the answer to the first question. Their conclusion therefore is seriously flawed.
[viii] http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1990-11-11/features/1990315149_1_willie-horton-fournier-michael-dukakis
Saman / January 7, 2015
Tisaranee,
Your words are profoundly commendable and very positive.
You have guided multitude of public to right path and opened there eyes to vote for Mr.Maithreepala Sirisena to have a very good governance.
Thank you.
/
AVB / January 7, 2015
Tisaranee,
You did a great job… You better take a rest, may be for 3~4 months.. Not any longer, then you have to continue your job, there should be lot to report. Like AKD said, this is just the beginning. MS & the clan are not going to make you unemployed or your position redundant :-(
*) We have to eradicate “Sir” culture in SL, it is ridiculous.
*) We have to get people out of worshiping mentality (including tree worshiping)
*) Religion should be taken out of state schools.. Put additional incentives to Sunday Buddhist temple schools as there are NO Buddhist sponsored complete schools like Christian schools .
*) Take measure to make SL a secular country in the hearts of people.
…..
/
Don Stanley / January 8, 2015
Thanks Madam T!
I am very suspicious of the very high number of registered voters for this election – 15 million plus.
I know a lot of people who remain unregistered, so the question is: How many of this high number of registered voters are ghost names for stuffing ballot boxes by the Jarapassa brothers?
It is particularly significant that Gampaha where Basil Jarapassa is King has the highest numbers of registered (ghost) voters?!
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Amarasiri / January 7, 2015
Tisaranee Gunasekara –
RE: Tomorrow, Perhaps The Future
“Hopefully these are omens of more democratic times to come.”
Thanks TG.
Yes, there is hope for the end of Medamulana maRa “Yugaya” , Period.
Thank you for the summary, and the word need to be spread that sri Lanka is the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka and NOT
The Medamulana Rajapaksa Dictatorship, Family Dynasty and Kingdom.
“But then the unthinkable has happened many times this election season, starting with the nomination of Maithripala Sirisena as the Common Candidate.”
This is the peoples revolution.This Happened in America and France and Russia and Turkey and Iran, and it will happen in Sri Lanka 2015… on the Day SWRD Bandaranaika was born and on the day Lasntha Wickramatinga was assassinated…
Ask the people to vote and participate in the Democratic Revolution… in Sri Lanka 2015 by voting…
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Samuel Jayaweera / January 7, 2015
Let s hope the best for tomorrow`s election outcome. I think the awarness brought through MS ‘s campaign are more than enough undecided voters to turn their minds.
Right at the moment almost 60% of the citizenry are fed up of MR rule.
Jaya wewa for the motherland.
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RAJA / January 8, 2015
The outcome of the election depends on several factors.
1. Whether Maitreepala will be able to break a substantial amount of Sinhala natonalist votes going to Mahinda. Upto now all the Sinhala nationalists were solidly behind Mahinda. He has been trying to keep them by making racist speeches. Maitripala in order to keep competitive had also made racist speeches. How far his low level propaganda will make inroad into this Sinhala nationalist minds.
2. Votes of Minorities.- Assuming that 90% of Muslims will vote for Maithripala, that will not be the case of Tamils. Already Tamils are disgusted about Maithripala’s racist statements. His track record is not good either. Many Tamils feel that he will be a similar racist. Due to this, how many Tamils are going to vote for him. If he cannot get at least 70% of Tamil vots, his chances for victory is slim.
3. Vote rigging – Minorities will be prevented from voting, fake ballots will be stuffed, and despite these, during counting,if Mahinda is found trailing behind, lights will be switched of and votes wlll be stffed to ensure a Mahinda vicory. mahinda is drunk with power and has amassed ill gotten wealth, which he will not be willing to forego. Even if he loses dispite all the jugglary, he will try to remain.
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Ellakollage Appachchi / January 7, 2015
MY3 60%, MR 39%, Others 1%
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nike / January 7, 2015
dream on
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JULAMPITIYE AMARAYA / January 8, 2015
moron!!!!!!!!!!!.
Why not????????.
“Dreams come true in My3 era”.
Do not wait to see.
It is already there man.
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Dom / January 7, 2015
That is bit impossible one, But I would say Maithripala will get at least 55% as minimum.
I fear that there might be sort of rigging in votes from Mahinda’s side which he will attempt to stay in power by rigging over 120,000 voters.
I hope the opposition force will strongly keep an eye on the polling stations.
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The Messenger / January 7, 2015
ALL THE TAMILS SHOULD VOTE TOMMORROW.
First thing in the morning tomorrow go to the polling booth and cast your vote. Nobody has to tell you, all of you know whom to vote. You have suffered enough under this Anti-Tamils dictator who grabbed your lands and made you refugees and kept you under military control. Enough is enough, take a stand to prove that your opinions, your ideas and your needs also matter in a democracy. Do not be afraid of their threats, this is one best opportunity to defeat the devil that keeps haunting you.
All Tamils please do your duty, use your power in the ballot box.
This is the hour of peoples power, please do not let go.
Get up in the morning and go, vote for the Common candidate and show your strength.
The Tamils living outside Sri Lanka, please inform your relatives and loved ones back in Sri Lanka to be brave and defeat the war criminal family by casting their votes to the common opposition.
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Lanka watch / January 8, 2015
The Messenger – Made A very good last minute plea to the Tamils but your message cannot reach the locals in Sri Lanka as CT is banned for the readers in Sri Lanka. Tamils know as to whom they should vote but the question is, will they be allowed to use their universal franchise without hindrance.? There will be thuggery and intimidation in N/E, the two provinces under military
occupation, with frightened people and there will be nobody to question unlike other provinces
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Amarasiri / January 7, 2015
Model Assumptions: No Fraud and Jilmarts.
I think it is better to make the assumptions of the model as follows, based on how the different communities are likely to vote, based on Mahinda Rajapaksa governance over the past 5 years.
Best Case (2010), Average (likely) case and worst Case For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Sinhala Buddhists (70.19%): 60%, 50% and 40% For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Lanka Tamils:(11.21%): 50%%, 35%% and 20% For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Estate Tamils:(4.16%): 50%, 40% and 30% For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Muslims &Malays :(9.71%) 30%, 20% and 10% For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Sinhala Christians:(4.69%): 60%, 40% and 20% For Mahinda Rajapaksa
Total: 100%, 75% of electorate vote, If more votes, Maitripala will get those votes.
Mahinda Rajapaksa Mahinda Rajapaksa
Election Outcomes
Best Case Average Case Worst Case
2010 2015 Average 2015
56% 45% 33% Rajapaksa
42% 53% 65% Sirisena
2% 2% 2% Others 59% Average for Sirisena.
So, It is possible for Mr. Maitipala Sirisena to get between 53% and 65% of the Vote, and the average may be closer to 59%.
Mr. Maitripala Sirisena, Jayawewa, Victory.
/
Amarasiri / January 7, 2015
Ellakollage Appachchi
On january 9, 2015 Early morning, “Elivena Jame”, “Elivena Jameta Thamail Honda Honda Sellam”
“No need to Panic. My Hambantota People would have paid me respect … “
The Assistant Speaks: Sir,.. Hambantota, We have lost Hambantota as well , Sir. The Results just came in..
” Spent millions obtained from China. Using the boards that can be used to measure distance was used to put up cutouts”
” With all that there was no profit even close to the Ass of a hair lice”
” Yako,(Devil) if correct, with the racism and religious conflict, I should have got votes from both sides”
“For 8 years, ate, ate unfortunate, only Wattalappam ( dessert)was left to be eaten..”
” Now everybody gets the noose”
“Unfortunate, next month, World Cup Final, got free ticket “
“Aiyyo Money”
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Don / January 7, 2015
Another brilliant piece. Thank you and keep up.
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Shiro / January 7, 2015
A great article Tisaranee. It clearly gives the readers an idea of how these campaign were run, and what a disaster it might be if the Rajapaksas win. There is no doubt that the regime will be in vindictive mode, and do all it can to “punish” those who ran against them, and those who crossed over. This will be indeed the last chance for Sri Lankans to get maybe more democracy, freedom of the press, and a badly needed change.
No more nepotism for sure, at least at this major scale. It is so disappointing that this regime, because of their greed for power, is poisoning weak minds, and planting the seeds of racism in young minds, and those who are naive enough to listen. They want to win at any cost, even at the expense of the Sri Lankan people.
We do not need more years of Rajapaksa rule. Are we that foolish?
/
Nalim Raphiq / January 7, 2015
Scenario: Minimum Maximum
Year: 2015. 2015.
Eligible: 15,044,490. 15,044,490.
Absent: 4,357,333. 3,342,757.
Present: 10,687,157. 11,701,733.
Refused: 137,038. 158,432.
Accepted: 10,550,119. 11,543,301.
Winner: 5,373,510. 5,770,558.
Runner-up: 4,901,309. 5,403,673.
Others: 275,300. 369,070.
Technical Analyst-Financial & Commodity Markets.
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Nishantha De Silva / January 7, 2015
Mile 3 Pala…………you must be joking
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Tamil from the north / January 9, 2015
Hey Nishantha De Silva, the bounder and bloody down right racist low life, now what do you got to say? Your Hambantota hoodlum and his entire family is on the run. Who is going to put food in your bowl? Common punk, write something you low life arse hole.
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Pena Kiyanna / January 7, 2015
“And if by some remote chance the Rajapaksas win again, they will move with all too imaginable ruthlessness to crush the opposition and destroy every flicker of democratic life in state and society, so that ‘the leader can remain unchanged’ until the grim reaper calls.”
Titsaranee, your above statement would be correct (for once!) if you edit the first bit to read “And when the Rajapaksas win again on the 8th as all the signs suggest…”
You will be a crying soul by the morning of the 9th. Wish I could be near!
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Gayan / January 7, 2015
You are taking the words out of my mouth.
Most afraid am I for the words MR said over the phone “Mr. Rajapaksa accused me of doing all the damage to him in collaboration with Mangala Samaraweera. He said after the presidential election, when he wins, he would be a different President Rajapaksa. You will then see what happens.”
Combined with an absolute silent Gota these days, makes me think something is boiling ..
/
Anpu / January 7, 2015
Inside Story – Is Sri Lanka’s Mahinda Rajapaksa in trouble?
https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/video-is-sri-lankas-mahinda-rajapaksa-in-trouble/
One of the participants is Prof Rajiva Wijesinha
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Anpu / January 7, 2015
CA Chandreprema almost complete lie.
Prof Prof Rajiva Wijesinha on crucial points (war crimes,…) he lied.
Alan Keenan 100% accurate.
/
Dr Romesh Senewiratne-Alagaratnam / January 8, 2015
Anpu,
I got a rather different impression of the interview. Keenan seemed uninformed (as might be expected from his vantage point in London) and said this election has been one of the most violent in recent times. This is clearly not the case. His previous interviews from 2010 don’t indicate that he has a good understanding of the war in Sri Lanka and its aftermath, though he talks about it as if he does.
/
Anpu / January 8, 2015
Dr Senewiratne,
I am glad you did not say anything about
“CA Chandreprema almost complete lie. Prof Prof Rajiva Wijesinha on crucial points (war crimes,…) he lied.”
So you are in agreement with me.
Keenan has better understanding than you and me.
Violence –
Tamils vote in North-East amid grenade explosions http://www.tamilguardian.com/article.asp?articleid=13375
Explosion near Jaffna polling booth
http://www.tamilguardian.com/article.asp?articleid=13374
Amnesty condemns death threats against opposition campaigners http://www.tamilguardian.com/article.asp?articleid=13367
/
Anpu / January 8, 2015
Dr Senwiratne,
“you cannot wake a man who is pretending to sleep”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/08/fears-of-violence-as-polling-stations-open-in-sri-lanka-elections
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-07/reports-emerge-of-violence-ahead-of-sri-lanka-election/6005346
/
Anpu / January 8, 2015
Dr Senewiratne,
“The Centre for Monitoring Election Violence has documented over 400 incidents – including armed attacks – since the election was announced in November 2014. The Campaign for Free and Fair Election has reportedly received over 150 complaints of violence and over 1,200 complaints of election law violations. International monitors, including from the Commonwealth Observer Group, report concerns about military intimidation, particularly in the northern areas of the country. Fears of post-election violence are mounting.”
http://blog.srilankacampaign.org/2015/01/sri-lanka-election-violence-world-is.html
/
Dr Romesh Senewiratne-Alagaratnam / January 9, 2015
Anpu,
There seems to be general agreement that this was a relatively peaceful election. This shows how paranoid were many comments and articles that warned that the Rajapaksas would try to hang on to power, despite the will of the people. There were unfounded rumours, spread on CT, that Gotabaya Rajapaksa was prepared to use the military to take over if the Rakapaksas looked like losing. There were other rumours exaggerating the isolated violence (they counted for example ‘reports of intimidation’ – some people are easily intimidated – it is subjective). The Englishman Keenan, who you express such admiration for, said (in the interview with Rajiva Wijesinghe and Chandrapema that you drew our attention to) that this was a violent election compared with previous ones. As I said before, he was wrong – and Chandrapema was right to correct him.
I think the Rakapaksas should be congratulated for acting like gentlemen and handing over power with such dignity.
/
Anpu / January 9, 2015
Romesh,
John Kerry’s telephone call helped.
/
Anpu / January 9, 2015
Romesh,
“Rakapaksas should be congratulated for acting like gentlemen and handing over power with such dignity”
NO
““For a moment don’t believe Mahinda Rajapaksa gave up like a gentleman. He wanted to declare an Emergency and annul the Election results and sent for the Attorney General and asked him to prepare the necessary papers. The AG refused and it is only then that he sent for Ranil Wickermesinghe and said he will go peacefully and asked for safe passage.” a source close to Ranil Wickremesinghe told Colombo Telegraph.” https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/gota-flees-to-maldives-by-air-force-plane/
/
Anpu / January 11, 2015
Romesh,
Coup averted in Sri Lanka: New government
Sri Lanka’s new government on Sunday accused toppled strongman Mahinda Rajapakse of having tried to stage a coup to cling to power after losing last week’s presidential election.”People think it was a peaceful transition. It was anything but,” Mangala Samaraweera, who is expected to be announced as Sirisena’s foreign minister, told a press conference in Colombo. “The first thing the new cabinet will investigate is the coup and conspiracy by president Rajapakse. He stepped down only when the army chief and the police Inspector General (N K Illangakoon) refused to go along with him.” Samaraweera said diplomatic pressure had also been brought to bear on Rajapakse, who came in for widespread criticism during his decade in office over his administration’s human rights record. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/coup-averted-in-sri-lanka/1582916.html
Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa ‘sought army help after poll defeat’ – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30763699
/
K.A Sumanasekera / January 7, 2015
If the photo accompanying Ms T’s final address to her loyalists is any indication, it will be a landslide for Rajapaksa.
Not a single Blue tank top ,let alone a Blue Shirt.
Not a single woman the amongst the Bathgottas.
No wonder Ms T hasn’t put her money on a CC Sira Victory.
Srilanka has the proud record of producing the first woman PM in the world.
Srialnak also has the record for more women in Medicine , and Engineering than men.
Women in Srilanka have realized the underhand and opportunistic machinations of the SLFP and JHU defectors, to give un winnable UNP the Govt, in order to get their hands in the till ..
And these women do not want their proud country to break up in to Tamil and Muslim Bantustans.
Disgraced ex President who ruined the mother’s reputation by grabbing Public Land for her own estate as well as selling them to her friends at mates rates, will find it hard to face the SLFP members after the Election.
Specially after molly cuddling the ex LTTEers and their Financiers and trying to denigrate the current President and his brave Armed forces for liberating the country which she left in deplorable mess.
/
crazyoldmansl / January 7, 2015
Mahinda will cheat just as he did before. The problem is that this time the people are tired of his dumb development plans. We will have a sri lankan spring or rainbow revolution or whatever and there will be someone a swinging on the galle face green.
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MirakRajBanda / January 7, 2015
Definitely he will be a different president IF he wins.
First thing he will fondly take revenge all his political opponents namely My3, Chandrika, Champika, Sampanthna and Rauf (spare Ranil Wicky for future elections)!!
There will be a Soviet style purge in his own party who were disloyal or done not enough to campaign. Basil, D.M. may come under this category.
Mass Medias will further suppressed.
More stooges, thugs and cronies will be installed almost all govt. offices which in turn comes under direct surveillance of notorious Defence Ministry.
Election laws will be amended to pave way any of Rajapakaya to become a next president and so on…..
Yes, your vote will be counted tomorrow to stop, a full stop to MR atrocities!
I’ll vote My3 (hope my3 will be safe after tomorrow :))!!!!
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kamal / January 7, 2015
It makes me laugh.. When i see these last minute campaigns to influence the voter by these so called Articles, and A host of Letter writers as published by CMB telegraph non stop (even though all Media should refain from it at this stage A violation no doubt).. All this points to one conclusion.. All these socalled Anti MR self proclaimed Political pundits know in their Minds and Hearts the MR victory will occur.. Hence the last minute campaigns mounted today by them and CMB telegraph
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gunasinghe / January 7, 2015
Moron, CT is blocked in Sri Lanka and also there is no law in Sri Lanka barring social media work during this period.
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Snowden Edward Asange / January 8, 2015
to access ANY site that is blocked in SL, log onto http://www.ninjaproxy.com or any other proxy servers that hides ones IP.. its not Rocket science anymore… That’s what I do from Russia and my buddy does from UK at the embassy of Peru :P
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Ram / January 8, 2015
Hogwash. I write this FROM Sri Lanka.
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Praba from Grave / January 9, 2015
Ram
Is it from a Hambanthotta toilet. Smells like it.
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Pacs / January 7, 2015
The two main candidates Toe the line of Singhala Electorate. They follow what JR told “the more you oppress and trouble the Tamils more the Singhala People like and vote for it.” It is more obvious Than ever before The Candidates Have avoided speaking about the welfare of the Tamil nation and indulged on humiliating the — in order to get the liking of the Common Singhala masses and attract their vote. Hence It is obvious the Tamils have been separated by the Singhala Polity, civics and Governance. So The Tamils should not attempt to keep the marriage alive. Leave them alone and not to worry about the election. “Venda pendadi kai padal Pavam, Kaal padal Pavam.” Remember What has been said about Rev Rayappu Joseph recently. Even The Sinhgala Catholics are like that. leave it to the fate. We can’t expect any change of minds in Sri Lanka Politics and the world’s attitude. Reality will be worse than what has been expressed explicitly and implicitly. We urge the UN to count the bodies correctly, and honestly without any bias.
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Ranjan B / January 7, 2015
Take a bow dear lady..it were a rare few like you who kept the candle of free speech burning in the last few years of darkness. Keep the rulers accountable whoever comes to power on the 9th.
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Pygmalion / January 7, 2015
If MR wins hook or by crook[The only option now] that will be the end of Srilanka!It will attain FAILED STATE status in double quick time.
In the meantime,I salute the OIC of Wanduramba G.L.Keerthisinghe for his principled stand.Perhaps,he should also teach a few things to GL.
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Snowden Edward Asange / January 8, 2015
YOU cannot wake up someone who PRETENDS to be asleep, GLP is one such moron, at his age, he should be enjoying his retirement. Greed has deprived him of a cool retirement and of course earned the wrath of the masses… time to kick his saggy butt along with the Jarapassas….and their ilk by way of ballots IF not a SL spring will do… whichever way.. MR & Co need to be ousted from power…
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Afzal / January 7, 2015
A new chapter in the modern day Sri Lanka is anticipated on the 9th Jan 2015.
Either way it will be history in the making.
Lets pray that it’s a win for democracy and equality, not a win for the illegal 3rd term for the incumbent.
/
Chatura / January 7, 2015
Tissaranee,
As a long time admierer of your write ups , I wholeheartedly thank you for you words of wisdom throughout last 10 odd years.
I have travelled 9000 miles to vote tomorrow, believe me, I will have a smile after I cast my vote tomorrow and think of your courageous self before I quite the booth.
As a journalist and as a Srilankan you have done your duty. My vote is for you as much as for MS!
Thank you!
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jhon paul / January 7, 2015
Let the Divine Power save the people, Amen.
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kali / January 7, 2015
TG:
There are some valid points and some ill thought out ones and that’s due to your inexperience.
1) Hopefully these are omens of more democratic times to come.
*** Anything is welcome compared to the present shit we are in.
2) It is hard to believe that the Rajapaksas would allow themselves to be defeated electorally.
*** Correct
3) It is even harder to conceive of the Rajapaksas bowing out, in case of defeat.
*** Not correct as Rajapaksas are no longer in control of their own destiny which is in the hands of UNHCR and the civilised Nations.
4)Significantly, the UPFA did not rush to the upper judiciary to get the Kaduwela district court’s enjoining order cancelled. Was it because de jure Chief Justice informed his masters that the upper judiciary is beginning to find its collective-backbone?
*** I am not sure if I agree with the above as the upper judiciary was and still in the hands of SLFP stooges but for how long I wonder.
5) The Rajapaksas are bound to have a Plan B and a Plan C to hang on to power, in case of defeat. But the state – including the armed forces – are unlikely comply.
*** The above is very interesting which is very similar to what Colonel Gadaffi”s son said about a plan B and look where he is now.
He is in a cell worse than where SF was kept by Gotha.
6) The election was partly an attempt to close the first loophole. It inadvertently turned the second loophole into a sinkhole. Faced with a lifetime of political servitude, the SLFP began to crack. Given the semi-feudalist mindset of the party, the rebellion happened the only way it could – through the agency of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga.
*** The bubble burst due to artificial growth and what was needed was a pin prick( CBK)
7) That chance is a very real one.
*** Yes but that is not the end of the story. MR and his clan are on a free fall and gravity will see to it and that is the final one.
8) The Rajapaksas never meant this election to be a real contest. And if by some remote chance the Rajapaksas win again, they will move with all too imaginable ruthlessness to crush the opposition and destroy every flicker of democratic life in state and society, so that ‘the leader can remain unchanged’ until the grim reaper calls.
*** The above is not going to be easy and MR will not live to fight another day even if he scrapes through. If MR scrapes through there are going to be more cross overs as many SLFPers are waiting to swim to safety.
9) Minister Dulles Alahapperuma told the final UPFA media conference, “In case President Mahinda Rajapaksa wins Thursday’s election, legal action will be taken against foreign agencies and individuals who allegedly funded the common opposition election campaign and induced government ministers to cross over to the opposition…”[iv]
*** You must be so ignorant to believe the above.
10) Given what happened to the war-winning army commander after he lost in 2010, it is all too easy to imagine what the Rajapaksas will do, if they win in 2015.
*** Fate will have and at least Gotha got his coolies to drag SF in his PANTS . If SF becomes Defence Secretary Gotha wont be so luck because when SF orders his Soldiers to drag Gotha naked and by the time he reaches the Custody Sergeant all his private bits would have been peeled off of like Chicken Wings.
11) The Rajapaksas, sensing the possibility of defeat, are trying to bridge the gap with naked, unadulterated racism.
*** The only Racism MR is capable of carrying out is killing his own BIL who is a Tamil but he has already gone into hiding sensing danger.
12) If this is their idea of patriotism, it is far more honourable to be a traitor.
*** Tell the above to SF I am sure he will be pleased.
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imad / January 7, 2015
Dear Tisaranee,
I am not commenting on the substance of your article. There is no need for comment since, unlike most who write, you always back up what you state with references to sources. So it is, in my view, a scientific approach. But what I admire always is the style of your writing and the language you employ. Hats off to you. Just ponder over what you have stated almost towards the end of your article:
“If this is their idea of patriotism, it is far more honourable to be a traitor.”
It will go no doubt into a book of quotable quotes, which some of those who sing hosannas to the purveyor of the current dark era today, will use it tomorrow without even an acknowledgment of its author. Kudos to you.
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Leon / January 7, 2015
A big thank to you Ms Gunasekera for the wonderful analysis of what is going on in Sri Lanka. As an expatriate I look forward to your articles on CT. If the opposition wins, I will give you full credit.
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R. Varathan / January 7, 2015
If there is a change much credit to you for holding the flame of
freedom without favour or favour to benefit all Sri Lankans in the four corners of the land. With much responsibility you defended oppressed Tamils, the bludgeoned Muslims and the concerned Christians with your mighty pen against attacks from the dark forces of injustice. The democratic spirit is served by such citizens of courage and social call when the system is subverted for their personal greed by venal dictators and their cohorts.
Though belated, Happy New Year. Here’s more strength to your elbow.
R. Varathan
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Ruba.G / January 7, 2015
Eve of our country’s Election Day has arrived.We as citizens of this great country failed to establish a strong democracy.
We let this regime carry on regardless.Our very own,scooping what was handed out,failure of the rule of law,and the rights of all people threatened.
With the regime bulldozing its way into a family empire,we have to give credit to the parties of the south that came together to fight the family curse. Ranil W has stood firm,though his party let him down many times.Perhaps he was the architect of fielding an all party strategy of a ‘Common Party’ of which none other than Maithripala Sirisena leading the party as a ‘common Candidate’.what better candidate can the south put forward having been a Minister for 5 yrs in the Cabinet of the Mara Regime.he knows it all.
Apart from others following him from the regime’s clutches,Maithripala Sirisens has shown his southern people that he is a strong person with ideals to work with others for a good democracy.
The north and east are the ‘swing states’.The last elections after the war,showed the strength,courage and determination of the Tamil people that they will work and vote for a good democracy and that they accomplished with much intimidation and coercion by the ruthless armed forces of the MARA regime.Yet the minority awaits giving a chance to another candidate and party to show their meaning of a democratic country that they envisage and not turn their power machine into another corrupt undemocratic power machine.
Good luck to all of us who look towards a better tomorrow where Democracy will smile on the entire Paradise Island.
Thank you
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Ruba Gnanaratnam / January 7, 2015
True democracy is upheld by the people who believe that good governance and the rule of law upheld brings peace and stability to a nation.
Our dear country missed many opportunities and in the last 60 yrs successive governments bulldozed its way into all our homes.60 yrs is a long time in ones life and ‘ every one has only one life to live’.
I don’t intend repeating all what we went through as citizens of this fair Isle as we all know and many of us have experienced the trauma and the disappointments.
So here we are,yet again on another route.In the past the minorities have given their votes to a man of the majority people’s bank In the hope that their aspirations,seeking an untrammeled life just the same way the southerners will enjoy but to disappointed of the differential treatments.
Let us hope for the best, the Tamils have the ‘ swing votes’ and they are being wooed.They showed their determination after the war ended and they went through so much trauma they could not be bought over.Let us hope at this time the eve of this great election like no other we have had seen nor gone through in the history of our fair aisle that we will be led to a better democracy a life of a stable country with happy people.
Thank you.
USA
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Real-Press / January 8, 2015
Of course it’s going to be a better day for whole Sri Lankans, with his inexorable third term win the country would be heading for a journey which would bring a prosperous and peaceful gem-land for every citizen of the country.
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Snowden Edward Asange / January 8, 2015
people have a right to dream… u should dream BIG… for a gem-land for all SL’s.. be in a slumber and never wake up !
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K.D.Nathan / January 8, 2015
Madam Tisaranee,
Every morning I open CT hoping there will be an article by TG.
I do not even bother to read articles by Dayan Jayathilaka or Wijesingha.
TG, you are a genuine patriot and a very knowledgeable excellent writer.
Thank you very much for this gem of an analysis of the present situation.
Please DO NOT STOP WRITING.
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Murugan / January 8, 2015
Gunasekara,
Nobody was against democracy in these elections, my only point was warning Sinhalese about kind of a Cassius type plot on an aspiring Caesar.
You should read my article on the CNDP in the Congo, to get clear understanding about how this situation can be provoked.
If somebody wants to bring down Rajapaksa, like Sinhalese democratic front, then you have to consider there has always been substantial support for the UNP etc. This support is largely prevalent of the old school London school educated bourgeois and then this UNP bloc just has to play its cards and jump in the water. They could have won, you never know in elections …
making deals with ambassadors and suddenly betraying, who do you think really would be more pro democracy in that game? Octavius and Marc Antony, Caesar’s friend, anyways overpower Brutus and Cassius in the end, after Brutus kills Caesar.
And what was going to happen to the Casino Packer would have built? and what about prospective Chinese infrastructure development for the sea port, these deals need some kind of stagnant leadership to put them in place, they are not just building sea port if UNP comes to power, so I mean the son is right in some sense. Sinhalese are so lucky they have Colombo port just sitting there Chinese want to develop it because it actually I don’t think the Chinese know what they are doing but they just want to copy the Atlantic Federation. You know Sinhalese are so luck they have this Australian guy building casino. And you just want tot throw it away, to put in somebody who anyways was targeted by LTTE for assassination in 2006-2010 period. Just the same guy, but betrayed his boss. No change. has a deal with the embassy. This makes no sense and both Sinhalese and Tamils largely understand this. Surely the Sinhalese will vote Rajapaksa back into power.
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vis8d / January 9, 2015
Oh this tisaranee [Edited out]
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