By Ameer Ali –

Dr. Ameer Ali

“There has already been for you a Sign in the two armies that met (in combat): One was fighting in the Cause of Allah, the other resisting Allah; these saw with their own eyes twice their number. But Allah doth support with His aid whom He please(s). In this is a warning for such as have eyes to see” (Al-Quran, 3:13).

This quote from the Quran refers to the famous Battle of Badr that took place in Mecca in the year 624 CE between 314 Muslims led by the Prophet Muhammad and Aby Sufyan’s estimated 1000 men from the Quraishi tribe in which the smaller Muslim army won miraculously. Before discussing the relevance of this war to the present context a few remarks about Donald Trump’s 250^th year celebrations.

With 850,000 fireworks and an estimated crowd of around 150,000 in comparison to the 500,000 which thronged to watch the Bicentennial parade in Washington in July 1976, President Donald Trump’s 250^th Anniversary celebrations were a mellowed affair. Even nature seems to have turned against this tamasha, because the fear of extreme heat conditions had kept away hundreds of thousands from attending. Yet, to Trump the celebrations marked “one of the most joyous and glorious milestones of all times”.

What is so glorious about those 250 years when that country was at war for 229 of those years fighting 36 major wars and conducting 469 military interventions at an estimated cost of nearly $12 trillion? The Iran war this year alone, according to Moody’s Analytics, had cost $132 billion and according to Public Policy Professor Linda Bilemes of Harvard Kennedy School the war expected to reach a trillion dollars at the end. US economy was built on the blood and sweat of its indigenous communities and African slaves. Today, US economy already lagging China has reached a point of inflection pointing towards stagflation. This dark side of the “glorious milestones” was conveniently hidden away and Trump’s ceremonial address to the crowd set the tone for his future re-election campaign by focussing on the so-called “Communist menace … the enemy of July 4, 1776” by which he really meant the Democrats.

But what made this celebration more memorable was what took place in another corner of the world – Iran, where a six-day mourning for the burial of its supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who was assassinated on 28 February by Trump’s US fighter bombers had begun amidst a crowd of millions. On that Saturday alone and according to the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim, an estimated 2.2 million mourners were said to have gathered and a record crowd of 20 million is expected attend over the six days. While none of the Western nations joined the mourning, either coincidentally or intentionally when the Saudi delegates were getting ready to pay their respect to Khamenei’s coffin the verse from the Quran cited above was heard being recited. The Battle of Badr and the victory of the Prophet and his 314 warriors over a much larger enemy marked a turning point in the history of Islam and that event is still being commemorated annually with special prayers by Muslims all over the world. The recital of that verse and that too when the Saudi delegation was preparing to pay their respects seem to be a shot at diplomacy to remind the Saudis and other Gulf regimes that their black sheep behaviour in backing US would cost them dearly. As if to drive that message further, US CENTCOM Retired General Frank Mckenzie has urged his government to shift those bases from Southern Gulf to Israel. Moreover, a new generation of Iranian political analysts insists on maintaining military pressure on those states to get any trade deal with them, because the previous neighbourhood policy had taken Iran nowhere.

The fragile ceasefire between US and Iran with a fourteen-point memorandum of understanding has now come to an end to keep Israel happy. Israel’s pressure on Trump to end this deal cannot be ruled out. While Trump has now labelled Iranian leadership as “sick people”, Iran in turn has declared that the “era of (US’) bullying and extortion is over”. Tit for tat bombing has started and once gain US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain had come under Iranian missile attack. According to Wall Street Journal there seems to have been a difference in interpretation regarding item 5 of that 14-point memorandum, which deals with safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In the end and despite Trump’s jingoism there is no easy passage through the Hormuz Strait without Iran’s cooperation, and that cooperation will not come through military bullying and coercion but through dialogue and negotiation. In the meantime, Iran has retaliated US bombing by attacking US bases and other US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. These states would be the ultimate losers in this war. Their vassalage to US and perhaps to Israel will intensify. Will Trump therefore agree to another ceasefire? That cannot be ruled out altogether. As oil prices increase and consumers feel the cost-of-living pressure Trump’s jingoism must come to an end. Trump’s tariffs and wars are proving costly to US consumers even though Iran’s inflation has also surged by 80% according to one estimate. Ultimately, if the war continues a global economic recession is unavoidable.

The most contentious issue in any future negotiation between US and Iran would be around Iran’s ambition to become another nuclear power to maintain a power balance with Israel. Israel wants that be stopped at any cost. Once Iran’s nuclear progress is crippled Israel will target Turkey which has similar intentions. Even US bombing of Iraq and Libya earlier were to prevent those countries emerging as threat to the ruling Middle East Order. After destroying Iran’s nuclear capability Israel is determined to do the same to Turkey. Iran through its refusal to kowtow to US bullying is sending a strong message to the Arab leaders that their continuing dependence on that declining superpower for defence purposes would cost them dearly by turning them into vassal states, and that it is time to change the ruling post-World War Middle East Order.