By Imtiyaz Razak –

Prof A.R.M. Imtiyaz

Trump’s landslide victory in last night’s election defied the expectations of many on the left, who had assumed that Kamala Harris would be a strong contender. Analysts believed Harris’s campaign would secure a diverse coalition that could build on previous Democratic gains. However, the results reveal a stark divergence from these expectations, underscoring a number of key points.

A. Minority Vote

Democrats assumed that Harris would easily capture the vast majority of minority voters, particularly Black and Latino groups. While Harris did indeed secure more Black votes than Trump, he achieved surprising gains. Preliminary data indicates Trump received 15% of the Black vote—an unprecedented figure for a Republican candidate in recent decades, as GOP support among Black voters has traditionally hovered around 8–10%. Even more striking were Trump’s inroads with Latino voters: 40% of Latinos voted for him, up from 32% in 2020. This reflects a shift in issues important to these communities, who may have prioritized economic stability and opposition to certain Democratic cultural agendas.

B. College-Educated Voters

Harris’s team anticipated a strong showing among college-educated voters, especially in suburban areas where Democrats have seen increasing support. While Harris did maintain an edge among this group, Trump managed to expand his share of college-educated voters to around 43%—a noticeable increase from 2020, when he received approximately 36%. This gain suggests that concerns about economic priorities and a perception of Democratic overreach on certain social issues may have resonated even with more educated voters.

C. Working-Class Voters

Democratic strategists aimed to win the majority of working-class voters, particularly in Rust Belt states where economic hardship has been a prominent issue. However, Trump emerged with a decisive majority among working-class voters, capturing approximately 57% of this demographic, compared to Harris’s 41%. This aligns with previous trends in which working-class voters, historically a Democratic base, have gravitated toward Republican candidates who promise to prioritize job creation and resist globalization and free trade agreements that can impact domestic industries.

D. Social and Cultural Issues

The Harris campaign leaned heavily on social issues like abortion rights and gender identity, expecting these issues to mobilize a strong base of support. But the election results indicate that these issues did not resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. Data suggests that only around 13% of voters cited abortion as a top concern, while issues such as inflation (25%) and crime (18%) ranked higher. Voters seemed to prioritize economic stability and public safety over cultural debates, signaling a rejection of what some view as “far-left” policies. Concerns over issues like women’s sports fairness and gender ideology appear to have hurt Harris among voters who felt the party was out of touch with their daily realities.

Electoral Map Upset

Trump’s success in traditionally Democratic strongholds was particularly striking. He broke through the “blue wall,” flipping key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. These wins underscore a broader shift in voter sentiment in regions once viewed as reliably Democratic, revealing a significant loss of confidence in the party’s ability to address bread-and-butter issues that matter to middle America.

Reflection on Harris’s Candidacy

Harris’s candidacy ultimately struggled to connect with key voting groups. Some Democratic voters voiced frustration over the party’s choice not to conduct a primary after Biden’s withdrawal, which might have allowed a broader range of candidates and viewpoints to emerge. As Trump celebrated his victory, it became clear that many felt Harris lacked the competitive edge to appeal across the spectrum, with her campaign narrowly focused on cultural issues and missing the pulse on voter concerns about the economy and everyday challenges.

The Path Forward for Democrats

For the Democratic Party, these results signal a need for serious introspection. The loss of working-class, minority, and young voters—once the cornerstone of their coalition—highlights a failure to resonate with core constituencies. A thorough analysis of the party’s strategy is essential, particularly regarding its messaging on economic policy, public safety, and social issues. If Democrats hope to win back these voters, they may need to pivot toward policies that address pressing economic challenges while finding a more balanced approach to social issues that appeals to a broader swath of the electorate.

This “red wave” has exposed vulnerabilities in the Democratic approach and could serve as a wake-up call for the party to realign its priorities if it hopes to regain the trust and support of the American people.

*Dr. A.R.M. Imtiyaz is an affiliated Professor at Sough Asia Cenyet, University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on nationalism and ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka and China. He has published widely in top-tier peer-reviewed journals, including World Affairs, Asian Ethnicity, Journal of Asian and African Studies, and South Asia. His articles explore the intersection of politics, identity, and conflict, providing a nuanced understanding of the complex realities faced by ethnic minorities.