16 May, 2021

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Why The SJB Will Win

By Dayan Jayatilleka –  

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

“Why Prabhakaran Will Lose” was the unusual title of an article which appeared in the Sunday newspapers in Sri Lanka on October 17th 2004.  That was over a year before Mahinda Rajapaksa became President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa became Secretary/Defense and Sarath Fonseka became Army commander. That article was written (and signed) by me. The title of my current article must be read in the light of that earlier prediction.   

Krishantha Cooray’s most recent article is an assault on the SJB of which Sajith Premadasa is the founder-leader. His accusation is that the Opposition is not strong; that it is weak. This is amusing since he does not have a word of criticism of the UNP of Ranil Wickremesinghe which headed by definition the weakest Opposition in the history of the island’s politics. By definition, because it is during Ranil Wickremesinghe’s continued and continuing stewardship of the UNP, the main opposition, that it failed to lead the country for over a quarter century and enabled the UNP’s rival the SLFP and its successor the SLPP to do so instead.

When a writer criticizes a one-year-old party of being a weak Opposition while failing to criticize the UNP for having failed to elect a president since 1994, that is an amusing exhibition of hypocrisy. While lecturing the SJB, Mr. Cooray does not once make the simple suggestion that Mr. Wickremesinghe remove his lifeless political carcass from the leadership of the UNP.

Mr. Cooray fails to acknowledge that the SJB’s performance has been quite remarkable given the odds it faced. No Sri Lankan political party under a new leadership, still less a wholly new political party, has faced the odds that the SJB has. Those odds are that Sajith Premadasa and the SJB have had to emerge from under the deadweight of the most unsuccessful mainstream party in our history.

When SWRD Bandaranaike broke away from the UNP, it was a successful ruling party. He didn’t have to live down a disastrous heritage; only to challenge it. Even without the deadweight that the SJB had to emerge from under, SWRD’s SLFP scored fewer seats and a smaller percentage than did the SJB did in a much shorter time, in its first national electoral outing in 2020.

When the SLMP of Vijaya and Chandrika Kumaratunga broke from the SLFP, that party had failed to lead the country for only seven years.

When Chandrika took over the SLFP it had been out of office for seventeen years.

When Mahinda Rajapaksa took over the leadership of the SLFP it had been leading the country for two terms.

When Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa founded the SLPP, they split from SLFP which had been leading the country since 1994.

Never had a new leader faced an inheritance of almost three decades of failure. Never did a new leader, still less a new party start with such a burden of liabilities as did Sajith Premadasa and the SJB. And yet in its first electoral outing it beat SWRD Bandaranaike’s historic achievement on his first time out in 1952.  

If the SJB is in any sense ‘weak’ today it is because the last time that camp had been elected to state power was when Sajith Premadasa’s father was president three decades ago. Whatever the SJB’s shortcomings, they are debilities directly sourced in the Thirty-Year Curse of the post-Premadasa leadership of the UNP and most particularly the Ranil Wickremesinghe leadership.   

Krishantha Cooray raises some seemingly interesting questions and makes some nonsensical suggestions.

An example of the latter is that Ranjan Ramanayake’s seat should have been left vacant. This would have meant one less member of the Opposition at a time when, certainly at a future mid-term vote, numbers could be crucial. We know that even in the USA, Kamala Harris’ casting vote is of decisive importance in the Senate. Can the opposition take the risk of subtracting a single one of its number? What if the regime keeps jailing MPs? Are we to play into the hands of the regime and keep their seats unfilled, thereby reducing the opposition’s numerical strength?  

Cooray wishes to know how an SJB government will stop deforestation. How silly can you get? At which point when fighting the Sirimavo Bandaranaike regime of 1970-1977 did the Opposition led by JR Jayewardene and Ranasinghe Premadasa, go beyond a blistering critique and a broad-brush conceptual framework of an alternative, provide detailed prescriptions for all the ills that had befallen the country? Surely it was in the famous election manifesto?

The less said the better about Krishantha Cooray’s claim that “The UNP has twice in recent times rescued the country from economic catastrophe brought on by their political opponents, first in 2001, and again to a large extent in 2015.” On both occasions the UNP was swept out of office by the electorate, just as it had been in 1970 despite the claims made about the Green Revolution. There was obviously something amiss—as R. Premadasa pointed out at the time—with the economic model itself. 

Cooray poses the question: “Does the SJB share its mother party’s economic vision?” Did anyone ask this question of any new party or new leader of a party, from SWRD Bandaranaike to Mahinda Rajapaksa? Why pose it to Sajith Premadasa and the SJB, which has clearly and explicitly broken with neoliberalism and professed a centrist social democratic vision?

Cooray says that “This Government reversed many foreign policy decisions taken by the Yahapalanaya Government, many of which boosted our image and drew us closer to our traditional democratic allies. But the SLPP said these policies violate our Sovereignty. Does the SJB agree with the SLPP, or does it stand by the foreign policy of the Yahapalanaya Government?”

Again, was any new leader of a party or a new party asked whether its stands by the policy of its predecessor or with that of the government? Did Presidential candidate Ranasinghe Premadasa stand with the foreign policy of his parent party and the Government he served in as PM? Did Mahinda Rajapaksa? Did they stand instead with the foreign policy of the party they ideologically opposed? Surely every new leader and more so every new party carves out his/her/its own space and pulls together elements from friend and foe, in a new synthesis?     

Cooray adds “At the most fundamental level, the SJB has yet to forcefully assert that were they to come to power, they would reintroduce key provisions of the 19th Amendment and abolish the executive presidency.”

The SJB has made itself very clear on that point. The Presidential candidate will be the party leader and opposition leader, and as he stated during his presidential run as the UNP candidate in November 2019, he would as President use the power of the presidency to serve the people.  The SJB challenged the 20th amendment in the courts and parliament because it opposes it as it stands. It is however, in no way committed to a return to the 19th amendment as it stood.

The SJB at the leadership level has openly supported the Presidential model as exists in the great democracies like the USA and France; Presidencies with the separation of powers. There is absolutely no reason to assume that the SJB leader will not, as President, follow in the developmental footsteps of his great father and use the powers of the presidency as an instrument for uplifting the people and the economy.

How does Cooray propose to abolish the presidency when that task has proved beyond President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and has indeed resulted in successive backlashes which has left the executive presidency stronger?

Surely the first chance we have to be rid of this autocratic ultranationalist President is to defeat him at the presidential election scheduled for 2024?

This time around, the non-Rajapaksa camp has a candidate who is the most viable in decades; one who lost the election in November 2019 when Gotabaya Rajapaksa was at his height, by only 10%. This time around the democratic camp has a candidate whose concern for the people, for the citizens, is manifest and a complete contrast with that of the incumbent.

The comparison that Cooray makes between Sajith performance in November 2019 and the SJB’s in 2020 is that of apples and oranges. The correct comparison involves the UNP in Feb 2018, the UNP in November 2019 and the SJB in 2020.

True, the newly minted SJB was unable to significantly breakthrough the barrier of the voting percentage that Ranil Wickremesinghe had reduced the UNP to, in which what was the UNP’s historical base-vote had become its ceiling. The exception, the spike, is the UNP in November 2019, which was Sajith Premadasa’s presidential run, at which he punched through the UNP’s ceiling of 2018 and got 42%.

He’d have got a higher percentage had he given the party leadership as his father was in 1988, or at the very least, been nominated at the same time as Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Instead, GR was allowed several laps around the track before Sajith was allowed to start his campaign. Finally, his 42% would have moved up had Ranil Wickremesinghe not insisted that he would be the PM if Sajith won (which the candidate contradicted) and Mangala Samaraweera announced that the MCC would be implemented. These were tantamount to acts of sabotage.

What then is Krishantha Cooray’s game when he seeks to revive the old, failed slogan of the abolition of the executive presidency? This is at a time when the USA has given us the example of exactly what attitude to take towards an ultranationalist autocratic president, which is to defeat him at a presidential election. Is it not to prevent Sajith Premadasa, who has inherited the knowledge of a successful experiment in rapid and equitable all-round economic growth, and whom Ronnie de Mel, the respected maestro of the Open Economy, recently designated “the only hope” of the country, from being the President?

Cooray goes on to query “As the main Opposition party, what is the SJB’s stance on exercising our country’s right to assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help resolve our fiscal challenges? How would they tackle our debt crisis? Would they follow the Yahapalanaya example of negotiating consensual resolutions with the UNHRC members to demonstrate our commitment to the Human Rights of our people, or do they agree with this government that doing so is a violation of our sovereignty?”

If the SJB agreed with the UNP it would surely have remained with and within it. If it agreed with the Government of the day surely it would have joined it. The SJB has the brains to see what was so wrong with the UNP as to keep it out of the leadership of the country for decades. It also has the guts to see and say whatever is correct in the policies of its opponents. Furthermore, it has the creativity to come up with its own synthesis which may involve elements from the old opposing camps, thereby transcending the old polarizations and constituting a new center, carving out a new Middle path.

Cooray asserts that “By now, with so many Government failures on so many fronts, many expected the SJB to have taken the lead in calling for a United Opposition Conference (UOC), rallying the other opposition parties and civil society groups into a combined front”.

The SJB is quite aware that the regime would like nothing better than for it to be tainted by the sins of the past and the policies of the past so recently and decisively rejected by the people. No new political party entered a political front or alliance within a year of its birth. Even the UNP in 1970-1977 when it set the gold standard of an Opposition, facing the autocratic United Front government of Madam Sirimavo Bandaranaike, entered into an alliance just before the general election, after years of reform, renovation, rebuilding and rejuvenation.

While Krishantha Cooray is confused or is trying to sow confusion, let us conclude by reproducing the sage observations of Ronnie De Mel, a Sri Lankan who made a great contribution to his country and one of the most astute Sri Lankans alive today. On his 96th birthday (April 11th) he said to Sajith Premadasa the following words, as seen and heard on TV news and the social media: 

“I think that the only hope for Sri Lanka to make a comeback is if you can get the whole thing going under your control and the control of policies that you represent. That’s the only hope for Sri Lanka. I will say that openly, and have said that to many people…Sri Lanka is in a dire situation…I am very fearful at times at what might happen…I hope you will be able to save Sri Lanka…I always feel that you are the only hope…”

If 42% supported the idea of Sajith Premadasa as President and leader of Sri Lanka in November 2019, despite these odds, it is wildly improbable that over 50% will not do so after the heartlessness and material privation the citizenry, including the middle classes, have experienced under the Gotabaya presidency, whichever sibling is the SLPP candidate in 2024.  

The SJB, led by Sajith Premadasa, is potentially better positioned than any other, in government or opposition, in the country today—and poised to win in 2024, the centenary year of the birth of Ranasinghe Premadasa.

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Latest comments

  • 14
    6

    it seems like DJ and the SJB has already won the 2024 election ? I wonder if he knows you cannot win elections in the press.

    • 3
      1

      Dayan, Sajith cannot win without the support of Tamils. His father narrowly won due to LTTE support, with whom he had a deal of supplying money and weapons to fight IPKF. Ranil W who antagonized LTTE learnt the lesson in a hard way that he cannot win without Tamil support. In order to get Tamil votes, Sajith has to have secret deals with Tamil politicians and get lackeys like Sumanthiran to paint rosy pictures. How do you expect Sajith who has climbed down from earlier position of maximum devolution under unitary state to that of the powers of provincial councils presently enjoyed, could convince Tamils about his sincerity. Will Tamils who were taken for a ride during Yahapalana regime, believe any assurances.

      • 0
        2

        “His father narrowly won due to LTTE support, with whom he had a deal of supplying money and weapons to fight IPKF.”
        Here come secret pages of history that only GS has access to.
        *
        Some pages seem have gone missing though, like the massive bribe collected by the LTTE to physically block Tamils from voting in 2005.

  • 11
    1

    One can misunderstand that Dr. DJ is on a propagandistic blitz to get a recognized position when SJB comes to power. In this game of power, leaders must be to some extent necessarily be ungrateful for their own survival while in power. I do not wish to descend to the level of a soothsayer or an astrologer claiming “Look! The predictions I made before became true!”. The truth is that the “telephonists” have performed better than expected in their role as opposition politicians. They have been able to pick the holes in the present-day setup and are scoring points, not for themselves, but to bring down the standing of those in power. To some extent the criticism that SJB is ineffective is admissible but certainly they are not impotent. While displaying their oratorical skills they necessarily must make use of this time to develop the essential skills to govern if they get power. I have persistently told that both SRP and NGR have common weakness in not able to give an ear to things they don’t like to hear. SRP must change for the better. For starters let him not talk of implementing the death penalty.

  • 3
    9

    If the south votes for Sajith in sufficient numbers, the north will boycott it. Don’t forget that possibility. Almost 50% of Sajith voters come from minorities. Any small reduction of that will spell defeat for him.

  • 9
    3

    MR has a vacancy for a competent astrologer.

    • 1
      1

      Paul, there are no competent astrologers as the planets and stars God created for a purpose have been miscalculated. North star is for direction in desert travel. Star clusters tell the Jesus story from Virgo and his virgin birth, through Gemini twin being both God and man, Capricorn sacrificial ram and man, Aquarius living waters, Pisces humans need Holy Spirit, Sagittarius defeats enemy, Scorpio defeats death, Taurus tramples enemy, Leo the triumphant King reigning forever. Planets reflect Creator God for worship, not man’s future.

      • 2
        0

        davidthegood, thank you. I will re-phrase that with DJ in mind – MR has a vacancy for an incompetent astrologer.

  • 11
    6

    “”””“Why Prabhakaran Will Lose” was the unusual title of an article which appeared in the Sunday newspapers in Sri Lanka on October 17th 2004.”””
    Dr. DJ,
    Are you going to say the same now about Prahbakaran?
    I think Prabakaran is the winner now and Rajapaksas are losers. Even after the death(??) of Prabhakaran and LTTE silenced their armed struggle, he is the hero of Sri Lankan politics. Not a single day passes without remembering Prabhakaran in the minds of Sri Lankan politics including DJ. It is now become more clear for Buddhist Sinhala that Rajapaksas are much dangerous to the sovereignty of Sri lanka than Sri Lanka. Prabhakaran loved this country more than Rajapaksas or any other Sinhala leader. He never or ever prepared to give any land to even for India or any other country.

    • 1
      3

      Wrong. VP lost and he did not love this country. He loved mythical Tamil Elam. The reason for mentioning him over and over again is to enjoy the victory again and again.

      But VP was useful. It was foolish of Rajapaksas to totally wipe out the LTTE. The LTTE excuse was very useful for governments in everything. Now they don’t have this excuse. All superpowers kept out of SL due to LTTE. Now SL is their playground.

      • 2
        0

        GATAM,
        Tamil Elam is not for any one, it is for the people of this island. You may say that you are enjoying the victory but still you are telling that LTTE is emerging, ISIS in order to make the Sinhalese in constant fear to silence them to hide the fact about economy and corruption. Why Sri Lanka is a play ground if the country is in peace? Why are you confused?

  • 8
    1

    Fortune-tellers make big money in Sri Lanka.

    • 2
      1

      Tony, All the money they amass through Mammon, cant be put into their coffins. But their deeds of faith and obedience carry eternal consequences in their souls.

  • 2
    0

    Since independence, SL has been voting for either the UNP or the SLFP, alternating at each election, like swapping pillows in the hope of a cure for the headache. Now, with the falling popularity of the SLPP, the SJB, most probably, may benefit from the ‘alternating strategy’. However, expecting the vote just because the ruling party failed doesn’t sound much of a strategy.
    Premadasa jnr. was the prince in waiting to take over the UNP but when Ranil didn’t hand him the reigns, he left the sinking UNP, about which, I have no qualms. However, having done that, I am not sure how the new SJB differentiates itself from other parties. The JVP has socialist underpinnings, the SLFP promoted socialism in theory but practiced capitalism, SLPP doesn’t seem to have any policy apart from its nationalistic rhetoric, the UNP was unashamedly capitalist, so is the breakaway SBJ the same? I am unaware of its political manifesto, so what plans does the SBJ have to take the country out from the shit hole it is in now? As the leader of the opposition, & as a senior politician, what has Premadasa contributed so far?
    So DJ, presumably, as the official spin doctor of the SJB, why don’t you spell out to the ordinary folk why they should vote for Premadasa jnr?

    • 0
      0

      R-UK
      I agree with your assessment of SJB’s potential, but DJ has not been entrusted with the task of convincing voters.
      *
      BTW
      The vote base of each of the two parties has shrunk since 1977 so that they needed alliances to win elections.
      (The SLFP could have mustered a majority on its own in 2010. The SLPP could have in 2020. But we are in an era of alliance politics.)

  • 2
    0

    ” SJB” will win” – Dr, Dayan Jayatillake. Another “DISASTER” waiting to happen.

  • 2
    0

    Without prejudice: This is a man who calls himself an academic and a lover of his “Motherland”, but is assumed a political “Fox in sheep clothes”. Like the “katussa” “Chameleon” who has climbed the ladder of political career gains using his skills to suit the moments to mesmerize those in power. A study of his back ground show that he has mastered this profession skillfully and competently. Added to this is his writing skills and his very close association with some of the leading media organizations and newspaper editors of the time. The above article underlines the “modus operandi” he had adopted to be what he is today. His prediction that Hon. Sajith Premadasa is poised to win in 2024, is a “day dream” politically, but he is investing his maneuvers hopeful to reach a higher position in politics after the 2024 presidential or general elections. The people have already decided who they will vote to power at these two election in 2024, not the SJB.
This is what Wikipedia has to say about him:
Jayatilleka was a visiting lecturer at the University of Colombo from 1982 to 1984. After getting involved in radical politics he and others founded the Vikalpa Kandayama (Alternative Group).

  • 2
    1

    Yes Dayan will be the Foregin Secretory no?

    • 2
      0

      4][5] Jayatilleka had been a supporter of Tamil militancy for some time and had argued that their actions were a war of national liberation, not terrorism.[7] Vikalpa Kandayama formed a relationship with the Tamil militant Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF).[5] Vikalpa Kandayama was banned in 1986 and Jayatilleka was indicted, in absentia, by the Colombo High Court on 14 counts including conspiracy to overthrow the state through violence.[8] In the meantime, Jayatilleka had gone into hiding, spending two years underground in Sri Lanka and one year in India.[2][5][9] He was then pardoned by President J. R. Jayewardene.[6]
      Jayatilleka joined the Sri Lanka People’s Party after its leader Vijaya Kumaratunga was assassinated and became a member of the party’s central committee.[5][9] Jayatilleka was Minister of Planning and Youth Affairs for the North Eastern Province between 1988 and 1989 (NOTE: Under Chief Minister Varathraja Perumal. On 1 March 1990, when India was ready to withdraw its troops, Perumal passed a resolution in Council to declare the independence of Eelam. The government of Sri Lanka dissolved the provincial Council and imposed direct rule on it. After the failed attempt, Perumal self exiled to India).

  • 2
    0

    Nothing much need to be said here about D J prediction . S J B has to win
    and only then history can repeat and people like D J will have a life !
    De Mel on this Video , good to give him a well wish visit but in my view
    he must honestly spend his remaining days genuinely disconnected
    from politics to make it a true retirement . Retirement life is a full new
    lease of life that releases a person from all stress of his work life . So ,
    let it to take its course !

  • 1
    0

    The Tamil voters have always rejected the Rajapaksas because of their identity with Sinhala – Buddhist only policies. When Mahinda Rajapaksa lost the elections in 2015, he blamed the vote bank of the Tamils for his election loss. When Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the elections he lost heavily in Tamils dominated Northeast. In the Jaffna electoral district, Gotabaya vote share was a paltry 23, 261 (6.24%).
    In Vanni Gotabaya polled 26,105 (12.27%). Gotabaya Rajapaksa is right in claiming that he won the elections on Sinhala – Buddhist votes only. The votes polled by Sajith Premadasa was not pro-UNP, but anti-SLPP.

  • 1
    0

    The day politicians start to at least reduce telling lies to their supporters about
    the country’s real situation and detail out practicable remedies is the day
    meaningful change will start to happen . Until then , it is only a dream come
    true to just a couple of guys. It may be Sajith or anyone else . What we want is
    to see a country that is willing to accept the truth which is being hidden from
    them to mislead them in directions they have no idea about . All want luxuries
    all want better life and nobody wants to work hard for it and politicians just
    do everything to exploit this tendency ! This includes destroying properties and
    wealth of sections of the citizens ! This must stop ! If not , the trend will surely
    lead to open Caste struggle , this is the next opportunity for Racists who thrive
    on every available cheap avenue !

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