{"id":109453,"date":"2013-10-10T00:07:09","date_gmt":"2013-10-09T18:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=109453"},"modified":"2013-10-15T16:21:15","modified_gmt":"2013-10-15T10:51:15","slug":"wikileaks-ranil-is-a-perennial-loser-as-well-as-a-perennial-survivor-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/wikileaks-ranil-is-a-perennial-loser-as-well-as-a-perennial-survivor-us\/","title":{"rendered":"WikiLeaks: Ranil Is A Perennial Loser As Well As A Perennial Survivor &#8211; US"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>&#8220;In the wake of the United National Party&#8217;s (UNP) defeat at the November 17 presidential polls, some members of Sri Lanka&#8217;s oldest political party are questioning once again whether Ranil Wickremesinghe, who led the party to defeat in 13 of the last 14 electoral contests, should continue as head. A group of 30 &#8216;reformist&#8217; MPs is pushing Karu Jayasuriya, the UNP&#8217;s avuncular Deputy Leader, to replace Wickremesinghe. However, in addition to being a perennial loser, Wickremesinghe is also a perennial survivor, and we expect this latest challenge to his authority, like others before it, will eventually fade away.&#8221;<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>the US Embassy Colombo informed Washington.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_109457\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/wikileaks-ranil-is-a-perennial-loser-as-well-as-a-perennial-survivor-us\/ranil-3\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-109457\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-109457\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-109457\" title=\"Ranil\" src=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Ranil-2-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Ranil-2-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Ranil-2.jpg 556w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-109457\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ranil<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/\">Colombo Telegraph<\/a><\/span>\u00a0found the related leaked cable from the\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/category\/wikileaks\/\">WikiLeaks<\/a><\/span>\u00a0database. The cable is classified as \u201cCONFIDENTIAL\u201d and discuses the UNP&#8217;s internal crisis after the 2005 Presidential elections.\u00a0The cable is signed by the US Ambassador to Colombo\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=Jeffrey+J.+Lunstead&amp;x=10&amp;y=5\">Jeffrey J. Lunstead<\/a><\/span>\u00a0on December 25, 2005.<\/p>\n<p>The ambassador wrote; &#8220;The defeat of Ranil Wickremesinghe in the November 17 presidential election marks the United National Party&#8217;s (UNP) thirteenth loss in fourteen electoral contests (at the local, provincial and national levels) under Wickremesinghe&#8217;s leadership. With so many losses in such a comparatively short time, some UNP stalwarts are once again reassessing Wickremesinghe&#8217;s suitability as leader of Sri Lanka&#8217;s oldest democratic party. These &#8216;reformist&#8217; MPs argue that the time for a change is now&#8211;before local body elections (due in late March) or general elections (which the President may call at any time). As a result, the party is in &#8216;a terrible dilemma&#8217; with an ugly &#8216;internecine&#8217; battle brewing within, according to one such reformer, Sajith Premadasa, UNP MP from Hambantota and son of the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who was assassinated by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 1993. Morale in the party is at an all-time low, he asserted; another MP described the UNP rank-and-file as dispirited and &#8216;frustrated.&#8217; A businessman close to the UNP told poloff recently that even dyed-in-the-wool Wickremesinghe supporters were beginning to question the wisdom of keeping Wickremesinghe on as party leader.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For the anti-Wickremesinghe faction, the LTTE boycott of the election is not an adequate excuse for their candidate&#8217;s defeat; the UNP must improve its standing among Sinhalese voters if it hopes to regain the leadership of the nation. These reformists complain that Wickremesinghe, who is perceived as an aloof, westernized intellectual, is &#8220;difficult to market&#8221; to the rural Sinhalese Buddhist south.&#8221; the ambassador further wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Quoting Basil Rajapaksa and Dulles Alahapperuma the ambassador wrote; &#8220;The victorious SLFP, meanwhile, is almost gleeful about the UNP&#8217;s &#8216;terrible dilemma.&#8217; Basil Rajapaksa, the president&#8217;s brother and campaign advisor, told us that the UNP once again sorely misjudged the popular rural pulse, offering a new welfare program that farmers feared would threaten their existing &#8216;Samurdhi&#8217; payments. SLFP MP and presidential advisor Dulles Alahapperuma indicated to poloff recently that his party does not expect Wickremesinghe to budge&#8211;and hopes that some of the disgruntled rebel UNP MPs could then be lured to cross the aisle and join the government. If enough of them did so, Alahapperuma speculated, Rajapaksa might be able to obtain a parliamentary majority without calling general elections. (Note: As reported Ref B, Rajapaksa told the Ambassador on November 26 that a number of senior UNPers had wanted to cross over after the election but were turned down because they wanted Cabinet posts.) Alahapperuma added that Rajapaksa will likely put off parliamentary elections for the time being anyway, since the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), whose support provided a critical boost to Rajapaksa&#8217;s presidential campaign, is expected to demand 55 parliamentary seats (up from its current total of 39) as the price of its support.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We give below the relevant part of the cable;<\/p>\n<pre>C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002141 \r\n\r\nSIPDIS \r\n\r\nSTATE FOR SA\/INS\r\nUSPACOM FOR FPA \r\n\r\nE.O. 12958: DECL: 12\/20\/2015\r\nTAGS: PGOV CE\r\nSUBJECT: OPPOSITION POST-MORTEM OF ELECTORAL DEFEAT:  SOME\r\nMPS SEES PARTY LEADER AS DEAD WEIGHT \r\n\r\nREF: A. COLOMBO 1988 \r\n\r\n     \u00b6B. COLOMBO 2003 \r\n\r\nClassified By: DCM James F. Entwistle.  Reason:  1.4 (B, D). \r\n\r\n-------\r\nSUMMARY\r\n-------- \r\n\r\n\u00b61.  (C)  In the wake of the United National Party's (UNP)\r\ndefeat at the November 17 presidential polls, some members of\r\nSri Lanka's oldest political party are questioning once again\r\nwhether Ranil Wickremesinghe, who led the party to defeat in\r\n13 of the last 14 electoral contests, should continue as\r\nhead.  A group of 30 \"reformist\" MPs is pushing Karu\r\nJayasuriya, the UNP's avuncular Deputy Leader, to replace\r\nWickremesinghe.  However, in addition to being a perennial\r\nloser, Wickremesinghe is also a perennial survivor, and we\r\nexpect this latest challenge to his authority, like others\r\nbefore it, will eventually fade away.  End summary. \r\n\r\n--------------------------\r\nSEE RANIL RUN AND LOSE--\r\nAND RUN AND LOSE AGAIN\r\n--------------------------- \r\n\r\n\u00b62.  (C) The defeat of Ranil Wickremesinghe in the November 17\r\npresidential election marks the United National Party's (UNP)\r\nthirteenth loss in fourteen electoral contests (at the local,\r\nprovincial and national levels) under Wickremesinghe's\r\nleadership.  With so many losses in such a comparatively\r\nshort time, some UNP stalwarts are once again reassessing\r\nWickremesinghe's suitability as leader of Sri Lanka's oldest\r\ndemocratic party.  These \"reformist\" MPs argue that the time\r\nfor a change is now--before local body elections (due in late\r\nMarch) or general elections (which the President may call at\r\nany time).  As a result, the party is in \"a terrible dilemma\"\r\nwith an ugly \"internecine\" battle brewing within, according\r\nto one such reformer, Sajith Premadasa, UNP MP from\r\nHambantota and son of the late President Ranasinghe\r\nPremadasa, who was assassinated by the Liberation Tigers of\r\nTamil Eelam (LTTE) in 1993.  Morale in the party is at an\r\nall-time low, he asserted; another MP described the UNP\r\nrank-and-file as dispirited and \"frustrated.\"  A businessman\r\nclose to the UNP told poloff recently that even\r\ndyed-in-the-wool Wickremesinghe supporters were beginning to\r\nquestion the wisdom of keeping Wickremesinghe on as party\r\nleader. \r\n\r\n\u00b63.  (C)  For the anti-Wickremesinghe faction, the LTTE\r\nboycott of the election is not an adequate excuse for their\r\ncandidate's defeat; the UNP must improve its standing among\r\nSinhalese voters if it hopes to regain the leadership of the\r\nnation.  These reformists complain that Wickremesinghe, who\r\nis perceived as an aloof, westernized intellectual, is\r\n\"difficult to market\" to the rural Sinhalese Buddhist south.\r\nDr. Rajitha Senaratne, UNP MP from Kalutara, observed to\r\npoloff that Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda\r\nRajapaksa won 60 percent of the Sinhalese vote despite the\r\nfact that much of his party's machinery--including incumbent\r\npresident Chandrika Kumaratunga--was turned against him.  \"In\r\nour case, we were all working together\" and still could not\r\nwin, he lamented.  Wickremesinghe is undoubtedly smart and\r\ncan speak well in diplomatic, parliamentary and\/or academic\r\ncircles, but lacks the common, glad-handing,\r\n\"man-of-the-people\" touch that worked so well for Rajapaksa\r\nduring the election, Senaratne continued.  On the campaign\r\ntrail, Rajapaksa spoke like a villager, dressed like a\r\nvillager and talked about the concerns of villagers, whereas\r\nthe UNP leader appeared too affluent, wore too many suits,\r\nspoke too much English and had too many Christian relatives\r\nto prevail at the polls, Senaratne observed.  (Comment:\r\nRajapaksa's own potential vulnerabilities on many of the same\r\nscores--that he is just as affluent as his opponent, has\r\nseveral siblings living in the U.S., as well as a Catholic\r\nwife--were never played up in the campaign.)   Kabir Hashim,\r\nUNP MP from Kegalle, commented to poloff in a separate\r\nmeeting that with Wickremesinghe at the helm, \"we've been\r\ntagged as a bourgeois party.\" \r\n\r\n------------------------------------\r\nREFORMIST REBELLION OR RANIL REDUX?\r\n------------------------------------\r\n\u00b64.  (C)  Senaratne reported that a group of about 30\r\n\"reformist\" UNP MPs plan to confront Wickremesinghe soon with\r\na request that he convene a meeting of all MPs to discuss\r\nnext steps for the party.  At that meeting, Senaratne said,\r\nthe MPs will propose that Wickremesinghe continue as\r\nOpposition Leader but give de facto leadership of the party\r\nto his deputy Karu Jayasuriya, who is perceived as more\r\npopular with voters.  In addition, the rebel MPs plan to\r\nrecommend that hidebound party institutions be democratized,\r\ne.g., that the 55-member working committee of the party be\r\nelected, rather than appointed by Wickremesinghe.  Besides\r\nthe 30 MPs, Senaratne estimated that another 10 or so may\r\nback the plan, giving the reformists a clear majority of the\r\n67 UNP MPs.  He added that Wickremesinghe could always return\r\nas the party's candidate in the 2011 presidential\r\nelection--it is just important that right now the UNP show a\r\nfresh face.\r\n\u00b65.  (C)  Others in the party are less sure that\r\nWickremesinghe, who has faced previous challenges to his\r\nleadership, will fold that easily.  Hashim expressed\r\nconfidence that Wickremesinghe will weather this storm as\r\ncalmly and successfully as he did an earlier attempt to dump\r\nhim--again, in favor of the more personable Jayasuriya--after\r\nthe UNP defeat in the 2004 general elections.  Rebels\r\nSenaratne and Premadasa predicted that Wickremesinghe will\r\nattempt to wait out the challenge--trying to appease the\r\nreformers by promising to take their concerns to heart but\r\nthen never actually doing anything--a tactic that both\r\nconceded has worked before for him and could work again.\r\nThis time, however, Senaratne cautioned, \"sentiments (against\r\nWickremesinghe) are harder.\" \r\n\r\n\u00b66.  (C)  The victorious SLFP, meanwhile, is almost gleeful\r\nabout the UNP's \"terrible dilemma.\"  Basil Rajapaksa, the\r\npresident's brother and campaign advisor, told us that the\r\nUNP once again sorely misjudged the popular rural pulse,\r\noffering a new welfare program that farmers feared would\r\nthreaten their existing \"Samurdhi\" payments.  SLFP MP and\r\npresidential advisor Dulles Alahapperuma indicated to poloff\r\nrecently that his party does not expect Wickremesinghe to\r\nbudge--and hopes that some of the disgruntled rebel UNP MPs\r\ncould then be lured to cross the aisle and join the\r\ngovernment.  If enough of them did so, Alahapperuma\r\nspeculated, Rajapaksa might be able to obtain a parliamentary\r\nmajority without calling general elections.  (Note:  As\r\nreported Ref B, Rajapaksa told the Ambassador on November 26\r\nthat a number of senior UNPers had wanted to cross over after\r\nthe election but were turned down because they wanted Cabinet\r\nposts.)  Alahapperuma added that Rajapaksa will likely put\r\noff parliamentary elections for the time being anyway, since\r\nthe Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), whose support provided a\r\ncritical boost to Rajapaksa's presidential campaign, is\r\nexpected to demand 55 parliamentary seats (up from its\r\ncurrent total of 39) as the price of its support.<\/pre>\n<pre>LUNSTEAD<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":109457,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,1,6969,2375,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombotelegraph","category-news","category-popular-stories","category-stories","category-wikileaks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - 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