{"id":121561,"date":"2014-03-13T12:48:09","date_gmt":"2014-03-13T07:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=121561"},"modified":"2014-03-21T03:12:25","modified_gmt":"2014-03-20T21:42:25","slug":"monroe-putin-modi-and-sri-lanka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/monroe-putin-modi-and-sri-lanka\/","title":{"rendered":"Monroe, Putin, Modi And Sri Lanka"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><strong>By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=Tisaranee+Gunasekara&amp;x=10&amp;y=5\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Tisaranee Gunasekara<\/span><\/a> &#8211;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><i>\u201cIf America can have Monroe Doctrine in Southern Hemisphere, we can have one in South Asia\u2026 Like (Lord) Hanuman, we must realise our strength\u2026.\u201d &#8211;\u00a0<\/i><i>Yashwant Sinha, BJP Leader<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n<p>The ascendance of Narendra Modi did not take the Rajapaksas by surprise. On the contrary, the Ruling Siblings did <b>their<\/b> best to reach out to the BJP. The 2013-visit to Sri Lanka, by a BJP-Shiv Sena-RSS delegation, even as saffron-agents of the Rajapaksas were stoking anti-Muslim fires, marked the apogee of this outreach<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn2\">[ii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Rajapaksas may have believed that their anti-Muslim image would suffice to build a bridge-of-commonality to a Modi-India. The knowledge that Mr. Modi was declared a <i>persona-non-grata<\/i> by the US for his role in the horrendous Gujarati-riots<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn3\">[iii]<\/a> would have further cemented Colombo\u2019s belief that Sinhala-Buddhist strongmen of Sri Lanka and Hindu-strongmen of India can do business, in amity and to mutual advantage.<\/p>\n<p>The Rajapaksas forgot the Dragon in the Room.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Mahinda-and-sajin-.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-116259\" alt=\"Mahinda and sajin\" src=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Mahinda-and-sajin-.jpg\" width=\"269\" height=\"420\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Mahinda-and-sajin-.jpg 269w, https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/Mahinda-and-sajin--192x300.jpg 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 269px) 100vw, 269px\" \/><\/a>A Modi-government would have been willing to just pay lip service to the Lankan Tamil issue, as the previous Vajpayee-led BJP administration did, but for two critical developments \u2013 the death of Vellupillai Pirapaharan (the BJP was not enamoured of the Tiger-leader because of his proven unwillingness to become an Indian-pawn); and Rajapaksa Sri Lanka\u2019s growing dependency on China.<\/p>\n<p>The BJP has not been very vocal on foreign policy issues this election season. References to China constitute a clear exception to this general reticence. Last month Narendra Modi warned China about its \u2018expansionist mindset\u2019. BJP President Rajnath Singh has demanded the scrapping of Border Defence Cooperation Agreement with China, arguing that it is against India\u2019s national interests<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn4\">[iv]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The BJP\u2019s stance is simple: India is the pre-eminent power in South Asia and China, by developing close relationships with smaller regional-states, is intervening in India\u2019s natural sphere-of-influence. In BJP-eyes this Chinese presence is not only a threat to India\u2019s security; it also encourages India\u2019s smaller neighbours to \u2018disrespect\u2019 India. The BJP believes that India, as the sole-superpower of South Asia, has the same rights in her \u2018backyard\u2019 that the Americans claimed for themselves in the 19<sup>th<\/sup> Century via Monroe Doctrine and the Russians are claiming for themselves in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Brashness is a visceral-vice of the parvenu. In 1895, the American government sent a diplomatic-note, demanding that global-superpower Great Britain respects the Monroe Doctrine vis-\u00e0-vis the British Guiana-Venezuela border issue. When asked why this diplomatic note was cast in extremely bellicose language, US Secretary of State Richard Olney replied that since \u201cin English eyes the United States was then so completely a negligible quantity\u2026.only words the equivalent of blows would be effective\u201d<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn5\">[v]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The BJP also believes that India\u2019s \u2018rightful\u2019 place in Asia can be established only by a government willing to talk tough and flex its muscles. This is what senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha meant when he emphasised that a Modi-victory will not only cause a regime-change but also \u201ca total change in the personality of the government\u201d<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn6\">[vi]<\/a>. In BJP-eyes, Premier Singh\u2019s mature moderation is exacerbating India\u2019s regional-woes: \u00a0\u201cEven during the recent meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa at Myanmar, Sri Lanka did not give any concrete commitment on either on troop reduction in the north and east or the fishermen issue\u2026\u201d<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn7\">[vii]<\/a> \u00a0In tone and tenor, if not in deeds, the regional-policy of a Modi-government might resembled that of Premier Indira Gandhi, who implemented her own version of Monroe Doctrine in both Pakistan and Sri Lanka.<\/p>\n<p>The perception of India as South Asia\u2019s hegemon is common to both the Congress and the BJP. Currently, their main difference lies in tactics. Singh-administration\u2019s attitude to potential Chinese allies in the region can be characterised as offering a large carrot while wielding a small stick. (Within the limits set by the existence and politics of Tamilnadu, Delhi did what it could to win over Colombo to a less pro-Chinese position.) The BJP is likely to opt for its antithesis &#8211; wield a large stick while offering a tiny carrot. This was implicit in Mr. Modi\u2019s references to Sri Lanka and extremely explicit in Mr. Sinha\u2019s recent remarks. He \u201c<b>dismissed the view that China will occupy India\u2019s strategic place in Sri Lanka if New Delhi took a strong stance against the island nation\u201d. <\/b>He said that if <b>\u201cAmerica can have Monroe Doctrine in southern hemisphere, we can have one in South Asia\u201d <\/b>and that<b> \u201cIndia cannot live in \u201cperpetual fear\u201d of China taking its place in Lanka\u201d. <\/b>Then came the punch line:<b> \u201cWe need to just whisper in the ears of Rajapaksa that he needs to listen else face the consequences.\u201d<\/b><a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn8\">[viii]<\/a><b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>Tough-talking on Sri Lanka by Indian politicians this election season, especially when made in Tamilnadu, must be taken with a pinch of salt. Mr. Sinha\u2019s statement is not an exception to this general rule, up to a point.<\/p>\n<p>The BJP genuinely abhors the moderation of the current Indian foreign policy as a strategic weakness unbefitting a rising regional giant. A Modi-government will be far tougher on Colombo, but not because the Hindu-racist BJP is more committed to the Hindu-Tamil cause in Sri Lanka. A Modi-government will be anti-Colombo because Colombo is openly and extremely pro-Beijing. Narendra Modi will wield the Tamil issue for the same reasons Indira Gandhi did \u2013 because constitutes an excellent stick to beat Colombo with<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn9\">[ix]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Apart from the usual border skirmishes (writ a little larger) a hot-war between China and India is impossible, even under Mr. Modi. A Modi-government is likely counter China\u2019s growing footprint in the region by taking a much tougher line on Chinese allies in the region. What India can do vis-\u00e0-vis Pakistan is somewhat limited; Pakistan possesses a nuclear-deterrent and the US, due to its own needs, will not abandon Pakistan totally. Sri Lanka has no such protections or protectors; being anti-Lankan is also politico-electorally beneficial to the BJP. Thus Sri Lanka can become the first and the prime target of BJP\u2019s \u2018contain-China policy\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>A Modi-government will reach out to other Asian countries with a \u2018Chinese problem\u2019. The relationship between Mr. Modhi and Japan\u2019s nationalist PM Shinzo Abe is already so close, that analysts call it a \u2018bromance\u2019<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn10\">[x]<\/a>. China, given its status as a rising global-power, is unlikely to concede South Asia to India, and will retaliate by drawing her own regional-allies, especially Rajapaksa Sri Lanka, closer. Rajapaksa dependence on China will thus turn out to be not only economically disastrous but also politically dangerous. Initial\/sporadic attempts by the Rajapaksas to win over the BJP by attacking Lankan-Muslims will worsen Lankan woes.<\/p>\n<p>Strict neutrality in foreign relations and a political solution to the ethnic problem (the Swiss model<a title=\"\" href=\"#_edn11\">[xi]<\/a>) can efface any future BJP\/Modi problem. Unfortunately, antipathy to devolution and the need for a rich patron stem from the very nature of the Rajapaksa dynastic project. Colombo cannot avoid becoming a battleground in the Sino-Indian cold war so long as the Rajapaksas rule.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPoor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States,\u201d lamented Mexico\u2019s Porfirio Diaz. The unfolding-plight of Ukraine demonstrates the danger of antagonising neighbouring powers. Thanks to Rajapaksa-rule, \u2018Stupid Sri Lanka, so far from China, so close to India\u2019 might become our own historical-epitaph.<\/p>\n<div><br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<hr align=\"left\" size=\"1\" width=\"33%\" \/>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/india\/report-there-will-be-personality-change-in-narendra-modi-led-govt-yashwant-sinha-1968469\">http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/india\/report-there-will-be-personality-change-in-narendra-modi-led-govt-yashwant-sinha-1968469<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It is important to bear in mind that when the BJP talks about Ramayanaya, it is not talking literature or even history, but politics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/national\/bjpled-team-in-jaffna\/article4784309.ece\">http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/national\/bjpled-team-in-jaffna\/article4784309.ece<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref3\">[iii]<\/a> Doors in Washington are already opening to Mr. Modi and he will become a valued American ally the day he becomes the PM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref4\">[iv]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/2013-11-14\/news\/44075153_1_border-defence-cooperation-agreement-bjp-president-rajnath-singh-congress-leaders\">http:\/\/articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/2013-11-14\/news\/44075153_1_border-defence-cooperation-agreement-bjp-president-rajnath-singh-congress-leaders<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref5\">[v]<\/a> Quoted in \u2018The Proud Tower \u2013 A Portrait of the World before the War: 1890-1914\u2019 by Barbra Tuchman<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref6\">[vi]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/india\/report-there-will-be-personality-change-in-narendra-modi-led-govt-yashwant-sinha-1968469\">http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/india\/report-there-will-be-personality-change-in-narendra-modi-led-govt-yashwant-sinha-1968469<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref7\">[vii]<\/a> Ibid<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref8\">[viii]<\/a> Ibid<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref9\">[ix]<\/a> It is important to remember that Premier Gandhi did not create either the Bangla issue of the Tamil issue; she merely made use of these outcomes of suicidal policies followed by Pakistan and Sri Lanka to India\u2019s advantage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref10\">[x]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ibtimes.com\/india-2014-elections-bjp-leader-narendra-modis-bromance-japans-shinzo-abe-1560414\">http:\/\/www.ibtimes.com\/india-2014-elections-bjp-leader-narendra-modis-bromance-japans-shinzo-abe-1560414<\/a><\/p>\n<p>India and Japan have been close allies given their common Chinese problem but with a Premier Modi, this pragmatic alliance will be further strengthened by ideological bonds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><a title=\"\" href=\"#_ednref11\">[xi]<\/a> Switzerland consists of a French-speaking region bordering France, a German-speaking region bordering on Germany and an Italian speaking-region bordering Italy. At least two of these nations were far more aggressive in their time than today\u2019s India can ever be. The Swiss also suffered from invasions, occupations and religious conflicts. Yet it survived though internal moderation and external neutrality. Though no two cases are identical there is much countries like Sri Lanka can learn from Switzerland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":106102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,46,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombotelegraph","category-constitutional-reforms","category-editorial"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Monroe, Putin, Modi And Sri Lanka - Colombo Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/monroe-putin-modi-and-sri-lanka\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monroe, Putin, Modi And Sri Lanka - 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