{"id":122774,"date":"2014-04-06T00:03:30","date_gmt":"2014-04-05T18:33:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=122774"},"modified":"2014-04-13T00:12:59","modified_gmt":"2014-04-12T18:42:59","slug":"winners-losers-and-also-rans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/winners-losers-and-also-rans\/","title":{"rendered":"Winners, Losers And Also-Rans"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Malinda Seneviratne<\/a><\/span>\u00a0–<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Malinda<\/a>

Malinda Seneviratne<\/p><\/div>\n

Speak to any leader or spokesperson of any political party that contests and election after all the results are out and it would be surprising if you can find even one person who does not come up with one or more positives.\u00a0 Even someone who voted for the party that got less than a dozen votes from a province which has close to two million voters is happy. He or she would say \u2018I made the correct choice and it is not my fault that others are stupid!\u2019\u00a0 Elections are winner-makers, therefore.<\/p>\n

Bragging rights<\/b><\/p>\n

The ruling United People\u2019s Freedom Alliance (UPFA<\/span><\/a>) was the winner.\u00a0 The number of votes and seats as well as the margin of victory over the closest rival certainly yields bragging rights.\u00a0 The United National Party (UNP<\/span><\/a>) would have to strain to claim victory; the party\u2019s vote-share declined in the West and improved only marginally in the South. In terms of absolute numbers, again, there\u2019s a decline in the West and a tiny gain in the South; this despite an increase of approximately 200,000 and 100,000 eligible voters in the two provinces respectively.<\/p>\n

The victory-claim is necessarily convoluted. The party has to draw from the UPFA\u2019s relative losses (votes, share, seats), throwing in a \u2018friendly\u2019 interpretation of rejected votes and abstentions.\u00a0 The UNP can thus claim that the majority did not turn up to show support for the government and add that the President\u2019s Geneva-related call was snubbed.<\/p>\n

The Democratic Party (DP), new to the PC elections, has stronger victory claims.\u00a0 They pushed the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP<\/span><\/a>) to 4th<\/sup> spot in the Western Province, picking up 9 seats as opposed to the latter\u2019s 6.\u00a0 In the South, where the JVP is stronger, the DP came 4th<\/sup> and yet bagged just 2 seats less than the JVP.\u00a0 It can now claim that it is a viable option for those who are sick of the two major parties and are not enthused by the JVP.<\/p>\n

There was an almost 4 fold increase in the JVP vote in the Western Province. The improvement in the South is relatively less.\u00a0 The overall improvement allows the JVP to claim that there\u2019s a swing not just away from the UNPF but towards the JVP, something the UNP cannot really claim.<\/p>\n

These claims have to be weighed in terms of the overall context in which the election was held, meaning the key issues that the respective campaigns focused on, the timing of the election, the differences if any with the situation in 2009, which was when the previous election was held.<\/p>\n

Context\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are two comparisons that are relevant.\u00a0 First, between the political contexts of 2009 and 2014; the previous elections to these two provincial councils were held around the end of a 30 year long struggle against terrorism at a time when the Government\u2019s military strategy was about to deal a death blow to the LTTE<\/span><\/a> (Western, April 2009) or had just done exactly that (Southern, October 2009).\u00a0 That was euphoria-time and as such would have helped inflate the vote in the UPFA\u2019s favor.\u00a0 Euphoria is not forever and a more realistic picture of approval and disapproval was on the cards this time around.\u00a0 If one added \u2018regime-fatigue\u2019, it would further explain the drop in numbers for the UPFA.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s another comparison that should be made: the degree of loss (UPFA) in these two provinces against the 2009-2014 comparison in the most recently concluded provincial elections outside the North, those of the Central and Wayamba provinces. The UPFA actually gained in the Central Province in 2013 (compared to 2009).\u00a0 It\u2019s \u2018losses\u2019 in Wayamba, in terms of vote-share, was minor. Indeed, in terms of absolute numbers, there was a gain in Wayamba.<\/p>\n

In this context, the decline in the West and South is significant and warrants examination. In other words, if euphoria-decline didn\u2019t translate into vote-decline in Wayamba and the Central Province, then it could not have been a factor in the West and South.<\/p>\n

The UPFA had the incumbency-edge and you can count blatant and surreptitious abuse of state resources as part of that advantage. The UPFA was riding a wave of election victories stumped only by the largely expected loss in the North. An incoherent, disorganized and even confused United National Party further handicapped by in-fighting and inevitable bickering added to this edge.<\/p>\n

\u2018Geneva\u2019 was painted into the election context, by the UPFA as well as the opposition parties. The President openly said that the outcome of the UNHRC vote<\/span><\/a> was not important; what mattered was the people of Sri Lanka. The opposition picked up on this, countering that the UPFA was deliberately brining in a \u2018non-issue\u2019 to distract the voter from real, experienced, problems right here in Sri Lanka; problems related to things like rule of law, democracy, corruption and general hardships.<\/p>\n

A third factor was the possibility of a low voter turnout.\u00a0 There was election-fatigue. The Southern and Western PCs did not stir up a lot of enthusiasm among the people as would have a general or presidential election.<\/p>\n

Explanations\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

We can go about this exercise in terms of the fortunes (and their fluctuations) of each party in relation to others in the fray and in the context of party-specificities. In other words, who lost votes to whom and who managed to \u2018steal\u2019 whose votes.<\/p>\n

For example, where did the 100,000 or so votes that the UPFA \u2018lost\u2019 in the Southern Province end up? Well, some of those votes might have not made it to the polling booths.\u00a0 On the other hand, if percentages mean anything, a drop from 68% to 58%, cannot be explained by stay-at-home alone.\u00a0 Some may have thought that it\u2019s not worth the bother since the margins indicated a win anyway.\u00a0 Others, however, may have thought that the margin allowed for \u2018lesson-teaching\u2019 as some have argued, especially since this was not a key national election.\u00a0 Where did they go?<\/p>\n

On the face of it, the biggest beneficiaries of any defection appears to be the JVP and DP, although theoretically ex-UPFA votes could have gone to the UNP while ex-UNP votes in turn going the JVP-DP way.\u00a0 Either way, the two \u2018smaller\u2019 parties have gained at the expense of one or both these parties.\u00a0 Now it can\u2019t be that such a voter would have thought his\/her vote would result in either the JVP or the DP coming on top.\u00a0 Perhaps some were swayed by manifesto, rhetoric or \u2018freshness\u2019, the DP being a \u2018new face\u2019 and the JVP having re-garbed itself with a name-face change at the top, Anura Kumara Dissanayake having replaced Somawansa Amarasinghe as party leader.<\/p>\n

Quite apart from the \u2018protesting\u2019 nature of such votes, it has to be recognized that both the DP and JVP contrasted themselves from the UPFA and UNP by laying greater stress on issues related to good governance or rather the related rhetoric carried more weight when it emanated from the JVP and DP than from the UNP.\u00a0 UNP Governments don\u2019t exactly have stellar track-records on such matters, after all.\u00a0 Moreover, that party\u2019s commitment to things like democracy, transparency and accountability have become seriously suspect considering the way various key individuals and factions have behaved within the party.\u00a0 The DF, on the other hand, is led by Sarath Fonseka, a man who is identified with \u2018discipline\u2019; \u2018discipline to the point of brutality, arrogance and crude dismissal of course, but discipline nevertheless.\u00a0 The JVP, as always, carried out a disciplined election campaign, polythene-less and thuggery-less; it was a party-first, focused and decent campaign.<\/p>\n

The ordinary voter who has to face the indignities that flow from a highly politicized system of law(lessness) and (dis)order or see the same on a daily basis, even if he\/she is likely to re-vote for President Rajapaksa and the UPFA in a critical election (based on the \u2018known enemy\u2019 or \u2018lesser enemy\u2019 theses), may have seen an opportunity to vote in a way that preference could be \u2018seen\u2019.<\/p>\n

Whether it was by default (in the above manner) or by conscious agreement with policy and program, the rise of the DP and the re-emergence of the JVP have given these parties platforms for advancement that the electorate has not given either the UPFA or the UNP.\u00a0 What they do with it is of course left to be seen.<\/p>\n

The JVP, certainly, can congratulate itself for remaining in the equation even after suffering several setbacks. The JVP appears to have struck a chord with the urban middle class, including people who probably preferred Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> to Ranil Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a> and the UPFA to the UNP. Whether this sudden loyalty is of the \u2018lesson-teaching\u2019 kind or something more enduring only time will tell.<\/p>\n

What is important is the fact that the JVP has provided a rallying point for those who have given up on this government fixing institutional flaws and don\u2019t see the UNP as an entity that could ever be serious about such things.\u00a0 The party has roughly come to where it was in 2000.\u00a0 It is excellently positioned to provide leadership to agitation and given history to collude willingly or otherwise with forces seeking to manufacture political instability.\u00a0 The endgame of such a scenario won\u2019t see the JVP coming to power but being decimated in order to make way for a pliant or even servile governing entity.\u00a0 The political maturity of the JVP will be tested of course.<\/p>\n

The DP and its leader Sarath Fonseka<\/span><\/a>, can now begin to woo both UPFA and UNP votes.\u00a0 It might be harder to win over some big names but there will always be second or third tier individuals who are disgruntled with party leadership.\u00a0 They won\u2019t make a difference; Arjuna Ranatunga did not, after all.<\/p>\n

Is this the beginning of the end of the UPFA, as some have argued? Well, if those who came out to vote were the diehard loyalists, then we can talk of solid vote bases.\u00a0 That\u2019s 37% in the Southern Province and 34% in the Western Province in the very least.\u00a0 In a general or presidential election the numbers would be close to 40% or more.\u00a0 That\u2019s a comfortable enough starting point for any party in any campaign.\u00a0 Add average abstention figures and the UPFA would be hovering over 50%, which is what is needed in a presidential poll, a victory in which would naturally snowball into a more than adequate performance in an ensuing general election. It is something that should worry the opposition, whose numbers taken individually or as a whole is still a long way behind.\u00a0 It should be read as an indictment.<\/p>\n

Things can change and can change very fast of course.\u00a0 As of now, the result must tell the regime that all is not well.\u00a0 There are questions that need to be answered, problems that need to be resolved.\u00a0 A critical mass is building up out there far away from the comfort zones of the powerful.\u00a0 Politics is not arithmetic.\u00a0 There are moments when a single incident can wreck the equation and make for a sweep in one direction or another.<\/p>\n

Some might say that the Government has lost legitimacy.\u00a0 Perhaps and perhaps not.\u00a0 If not, it is not too far away from that turning point.<\/p>\n

*Malinda Seneviratne is the Chief Editor of \u2018The Nation\u2019\u00a0and his articles can be found at\u00a0www.malindawords.blogspot.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[…]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":105560,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,46,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-122774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombotelegraph","category-constitutional-reforms","category-editorial"],"yoast_head":"\nWinners, Losers And Also-Rans - Colombo Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/winners-losers-and-also-rans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Winners, Losers And Also-Rans - Colombo Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[…]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/winners-losers-and-also-rans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Colombo Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-04-05T18:33:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-04-12T18:42:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/Malinda-Seneviratne-150x150.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"130\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"135\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"COLOMBO TELEGRAPH\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"COLOMBO TELEGRAPH\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/winners-losers-and-also-rans\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/winners-losers-and-also-rans\/\",\"name\":\"Winners, Losers And Also-Rans - 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