{"id":133006,"date":"2014-11-16T00:05:45","date_gmt":"2014-11-15T18:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=133006"},"modified":"2014-11-21T16:00:57","modified_gmt":"2014-11-21T10:30:57","slug":"some-run-some-walk-some-crawl-and-some-stand-still","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/some-run-some-walk-some-crawl-and-some-stand-still\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Run, Some walk, Some Crawl And Some Stand Still"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Malinda Seneviratne<\/span><\/a> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Malinda<\/a>

Malinda Seneviratne<\/p><\/div>\n

Tilvin Silva of the JVP made an interesting point at the commemoration of comrades slain in 1988-89: \u2018Mahinda has already run half the race.\u2019\u00a0 The constitution favors incumbent. Authorities turn a blind eye on the abuse of state resources and indeed the institutional arrangement is so poor in terms of checks and balances that this is a \u2018given\u2019.\u00a0 Citizens have, sadly, resolved to shoulder-shrug in a \u2018par for the course\u2019 sense. And then there\u2019s the Opposition: broken, confused and running around in circles.\u00a0 So yes, Tilvin has a point.<\/p>\n

Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> has been running for re-election since January 2010. He had the J R Jayewardene<\/span><\/a> and Chandrika Kumaratunga<\/span><\/a> presidencies to figure out the fate of a lame duck incumbent. His decline would begin on Day 1. He must have started plotting the 18th<\/sup> Amendment the moment he was re-elected.\u00a0 He had the numbers in Parliament. He got it passed.<\/p>\n

There was of course what appeared to be a hiccup in the form of the former Chief Justice, Sarath N Silva<\/span><\/a> raising the issue of ineligibility. JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake<\/span><\/a> referring to this as well as the Supreme Court\u2019s dismissal of the objection, claims that even a schoolboy would know that the President was ineligible.\u00a0 This means that for four years, Anura as well as the JVP had the political maturity of toddlers.\u00a0 After the SC determination, Silva says \u2018nothing can be done now except defeat him\u2019.\u00a0 It is almost as though he brought the issue up to ensure that Rajapaksa would not be stumped on nomination day.<\/p>\n

Sections of the Opposition briefly flirted with the idea of a Chandrika come-back. Ranil Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a> is reported to have supported the idea.\u00a0 If this is true it only indicates that he doesn\u2019t believe he can defeat Rajapaksa. Dayan Jayatilleka<\/span><\/a> got it right when he said that if anyone can do worse than Ranil it is Chandrika. She was President for 11 years and has nothing to show for it.\u00a0 She played hide and seek with the LTTE and came off second best.\u00a0 She has nothing concrete to show compared to what Rajapaksa can brag about. Rajapaksa, moreover, presided over a comprehensive victory over terrorism.\u00a0 Track records will be compared.\u00a0 In any case, Silva\u2019s antics have effectively dumped the Chandrika Candidacy idea in the bin.\u00a0 She can keep out of things or she can support an Opposition candidate.\u00a0 She would be a liability more than an asset in the latter case.<\/p>\n

\"Mahinda<\/a>Mahinda has things to show. That counts. It counts more than things that begin with \u2018If I am elected\u2026\u2019\u00a0 He has his liabilities and handicaps but to make these count the Opposition has to start running, to take from Tilvin\u2019s observation. Right now, though, while Mahinda has got off the blocks and is half way towards the finishing line, all the running that the Opposition seems to be doing is \u2018in circles\u2019.<\/p>\n

Mahinda has the show-tell advantage. He has the regime-fatigue handicap. He has the incumbency edge, but has to deal with the fallout of non-deliverability on several issues. Abolishing the executive presidency is a non-issue for the average voter, but law and order is an in-your-face matter.\u00a0 He has failed there and he can thank the thugs and crooks he has indulged or cultivated for this.\u00a0 His coalition has not seemed as solid as it used to be.\u00a0 There has been audible grumbling about the \u2018Clan mentality of the Rajapaksas\u2019.\u00a0 These haven\u2019t resulted in major cracks.\u00a0 The Opposition, with its own confusion and fractures, is a hardly attractive place for dissenting voices to relocate.\u00a0 As of now, only the JHU seems uncertain or supporting him for the third time.\u00a0 There is no guarantee that a possible JHU exit would precipitate an exodus that is significant.<\/p>\n

The weight of the \u2018JHU factor\u2019 will depend on whether they support someone put forward by the UNP or whether they decide to contest separately.\u00a0 A JHU candidate would be a spoiler but it is hard to say who gets spoiled.\u00a0 If Ranil is contesting, the Ranil-Mahinda gap could be so wide that the JHU would be a non-factor.\u00a0 Such a candidate might get a few disgruntled votes from both sides. A Karu Jayasuriya<\/span><\/a> candidacy might succeed in obtaining JHU support.\u00a0 Whether this would translate into victory is left to be seen.<\/p>\n

The Opposition right now appears hell bent on making most of the above irrelevant.\u00a0 What the voter is seeing is a bunch of self-serving politicians under-cutting one another. Sajith Premadasa<\/span><\/a> is playing spoiler. He knows he can\u2019t defeat Rajapaksa and therefore he doesn\u2019t want anyone else, particularly Karu Jayasuriya to have a shot the presidency.\u00a0 He backs Ranil because he is banking on turning Ranil\u2019s probably defeat into an edge in ousting the man as Party Leader.\u00a0 He is balking from supporting Karu, perhaps thinking that he has an outside chance. Ranil holds the cards: he decides who will contest.\u00a0 If he feels he can\u2019t win then he would want to put forward a loser. Karu doesn\u2019t know who to trust. The Opposition\u2019s self-appointed spin-doctors are not helping by throwing other names into the hat:\u00a0 Arjuna Ranatunga, Chandrika, Ven Maduluwawe Sobitha<\/span><\/a> Thero and even Maithripala Sirisena of the SLFP (he has since \u2018opted out,\u2019 clearly signaling that the rank and file of the ruling party doesn\u2019t want to gamble on an iffy Opposition candidate).<\/p>\n

The JVP ran with Silva\u2019s objection and is now left without a slogan. \u2018Boycott\u2019 seems to be the face-saving option, but this might result in further erosion of vote base in a possible General Election following the probable Presidential Election in early January.<\/p>\n

Tilvin, then, is describing only part of the unfolding political. Mahinda is not only half way there, the Opposition is running in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n

*Malinda Seneviratne is the Chief Editor of \u2018The Nation\u2019\u00a0and his articles can be found at\u00a0www.malindawords.blogspot.com<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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