{"id":133749,"date":"2014-11-27T00:22:22","date_gmt":"2014-11-26T18:52:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=133749"},"modified":"2014-12-01T00:58:11","modified_gmt":"2014-11-30T19:28:11","slug":"ranil-wickremesinghe-the-early-winner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-wickremesinghe-the-early-winner\/","title":{"rendered":"Ranil Wickremesinghe The Early Winner"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Malinda Seneviratne<\/a><\/span>\u00a0–<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Malinda<\/a>

Malinda Seneviratne<\/p><\/div>\n

Early days. Remember that. Keep in mind also that in a 40-day run each day counts and that \u2018early\u2019 can quickly bleed into \u2018late\u2019 and \u2018too late\u2019. That said, let\u2019s consider Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a>\u2019s press conference on Friday November 20, 2014 where he announced he would be the \u2018common candidate\u2019 of the Opposition.<\/p>\n

\u2018\u0db8\u0ddb\u0dad\u0dca\u200d\u0dbb\u0dd3 \u0db4\u0dcf\u0dbd\u0db1\u0dba\u0d9a\u0dca\u2019 [\u2018Maithree Paalanayak,\u2019 meaning \u2018Compassionate Governance\u2019]. What a wonderful signature for a campaign! Pithy. Easy on the tongue. Captures the entire thrust of the project.\u00a0 Contrasts itself from what the principal opponent is identified with. Brilliant.<\/p>\n

The candidate is not without credentials. A long-time party loyalist who enjoys considerable support from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, Maithripala Sirisena has more appeal from a wider cross section of the voting population than the other contenders, Karu Jayasuriya, Ranil Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a> and Sajith Premadasa (in that order). The opening remarks, prefaced by a Dhammapada <\/i>quote, struck the right note. There was sobriety. There was humility. There was purpose. He sounded presidential. Then it all went downhill.<\/p>\n

\"Ranil\"<\/a>It didn\u2019t help that he was flanked by two discredited politicians. Chandrika Kumaratunga<\/span><\/a>, Victor Ivan<\/span><\/a> will remember, earned the sobriquet \u0da0\u0dde\u0dbb \u0dbb\u0dd0\u0da2\u0dd2\u0db1 (The Queen of Deceit<\/span><\/a>). In eleven years, she not only deceived, but presided over violations not second to any she charges the Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> regime with, not to mention a sorry track record with regard to handling the scourge of terrorism. Rajitha Senaratne<\/span><\/a> is hardly a heavyweight any more. Still, it was the \u2018Maithree Moment\u2019 and naturally the cameras didn\u2019t pan to those two has-beens.<\/p>\n

All he needed to do was thank those who made his candidacy possible, outline his objectives and leave.\u00a0 He tried to do more and ended up doing less.\u00a0 The biggest blunder was to pledge the Prime Minister\u2019s post to Ranil Wickremesinghe. Unnecessary. Distracting.<\/p>\n

In essence, Maithripala was saying something like this: \u2018Ranil can\u2019t beat Mahinda. I have a better shot. I will win, step down and hand over executive power to Ranil\u2019. Now if this was a project to promote Ranil, then the question is, \u2018Why on earth is Ranil not contesting?\u2019 Maithripala seeks to win a mandate to rule from the people. It is not a transferable asset.\u00a0 If democracy underlines this project (as he claims), then it would go against the basic tenets of the idea. The UNP, let us not forget, is a party that couldn\u2019t come up with a credible candidate. Not in 2010 and not in 2014\/15. Rewarding the leader of such a party is \u0d9a\u0da9\u0dda \u0dba\u0dd1\u0db8 (shopping, or acting like a domestic aide who does someone\u2019s bidding) to use a Sinhala term that has a lot of political currency.\u00a0 It is as though the \u0dc0\u0dbd\u0dc0\u0dca\u0dc0\u0dda \u0dc4\u0dcf\u0db8\u0dd4\u0daf\u0dd4\u0dbb\u0dd4\u0dc0\u0ddd \u00a0(Lord of the Manor) is getting a village boy to pluck some coconuts which he, the Lord, will then sell and deposit the money in a bank.<\/p>\n

He could have elaborated on the notion of an interim arrangement or a \u2018national government\u2019 that presides over constitutional reform and thereafter seek fresh mandate through a General Election.Instead, he reduced what is essentially a regime-changing exercise into an individual\u2019s political project. He dwarfed himself. And his dwarfing got worse when Chandrika had her say. Hers was an unqualified lament of the worst kind. There was no \u0db8\u0ddb\u0dad\u0dca\u200d\u0dbb\u0dd3 there. There was \u0dc0\u0ddb\u0dbb\u0dba (hatred) and clear revenge-intent.\u00a0 Hardly the stuff that could bowl the electorate over.<\/p>\n

Now contrast this with an alternative head table composition where the candidate is flanked by Anura Kumara Dissanayake<\/span><\/a> (JVP), either Champika Ranawaka<\/span><\/a> or Ven Athureliye Rathana<\/span><\/a> Thero (JHU), Ranil and\/or Karu Jayasuriya. That\u2019s formidable. In contrast, what was \u2018on show\u2019 on Friday was pathetic. Such a panel would indicate the forces arrayed against Mahinda Rajapaksa. What was on show was a bunch of disgruntled incompetents.<\/p>\n

Maithripala has to look and sound presidential and he doesn\u2019t have too much time to do so. He has to re-articulate the project in clear democratic terms where individuals and their petty political objectives are completely left out of the story.\u00a0 He has to drop his liabilities. It is clear that Chandrika Kumaratunga, motivated by whatever, played a crucial role in this maneuver which some people already call \u2018a coup\u2019 (a bit early for that). That\u2019s it.\u00a0 Her role is over. At least in the public eye.\u00a0 Someone commented on Facebook, \u2018each time she speaks Maithri loses 10,000 votes\u2019.\u00a0 That\u2019s exaggeration and not a substantiated claim, but that sentiment does have currency. Yes, she can address a particular voter segment. The problem is that when she addresses them, there are others listening.<\/p>\n

Early days. He can still re-constitute his head-table, so to speak. Maithripala likened Ven Athureliye Rathana Thero to Kudapola Hamuduruwo, acknowledging the key role the thero played in the political upheavals that culminated in him being nominated as the \u2018common candidate\u2019. Now if you have Kudapola Hamuduruwo backing you, it would be plain stupid not to get the Hamuduruwo on stage. Similarly, if he thinks an appeal to the SLFP and UNP voter in the form of clinging on to Chandrika\u2019s sari pota<\/i> and promising Ranil the premiership would do the trick, he\u2019s sadly mistaken. Voice-cut politics won\u2019t deliver anything. There\u2019s a campaign to be carried out on the ground and the likes of Harsha De Silva, Eran Wickramaratne and Rosie Senanayake will not do it. Maithripala needs active JVP support (meaning, not the lukewarm hurrahs that party gave Sarath Fonseka).\u00a0 You can have 50 MPs crossing over, but unless they become campaign foot soldiers, that\u2019s just 50 votes you are assured of. A general sway on the ground will not necessarily follow these political defections. Hard, tough, persistent campaigning at the grassroots is non-negotiable.\u00a0 And here the JVP will be a significant factor. Remember, also, that it would be wrong to \u2018use\u2019 the JVP.\u00a0 They must have a central role in the campaign and they must have prominence in the post-election phase in the event that Maithripala wins. You can\u2019t promise Ranil the premiership, Chandrika her pound of flesh and toss some crumbs the JVP way.<\/p>\n

Maithripala Sirisena has a case.\u00a0 There is widespread disappointment and even objection to the regime.\u00a0 It\u2019s not about Mahinda Rajapaksa alone. He is liked. Widely. Despite his faults. It is not about the Rajapaksas alone. Gotabaya<\/span><\/a> and Basil<\/span><\/a> may be resented by senior members of the SLFP, less for wrongdoing than for what they effectively deny.\u00a0 Few would deny that they work really hard.\u00a0 It is the Rajapaksavarun<\/i> (let\u2019s say \u2018the Rajapaksa hangers-on\u2019) that are mostly resented.\u00a0 \u2018Intensely\u2019 would be the correct word. There are not necessarily blood relatives. It\u2019s the Mervins, Sajins, Dumindas, Rohitha and the countless thugs and thieves in Parliament, Provincial Councils and Local Government Authorities that are insufferable.<\/p>\n

\u2018What is the President\u2019s greatest strength and what is his biggest weakness?\u2019 is a question to which a retired soldier who now works as a driver and who even today says he will give his life to Mahinda Rajapaksa responded as follows: \u2018\u0dbd\u0dd9\u0db1\u0dca\u0d9c\u0dad\u0dd4 \u0d9a\u0db8. \u0dc4\u0ddc\u0dbb\u0dd4 \u0da7\u0dd2\u0d9a\u0d9a\u0dca \u0dc0\u0da7\u0d9a\u0dbb \u0d9c\u0dd9\u0db1 \u0d89\u0db1\u0dca\u0db1 \u0d91\u0d9a\u2019 (his affability or warmth and the fact that he has surrounded himself with rogues).\u00a0 On Friday night, one of these worthies shot at a political opponent. That\u2019s not a \u2018first\u2019. It is just one of countless examples of thuggery to which the President has for whatever reason turned a blind eye and thereby creating, reinforcing and perpetuating a culture of impunity.<\/p>\n

That said, incumbency, gratitude for defeating terrorism (which Maithripala himself acknowledged) and sheer personal charm, not to mention all the usual tweak-n-abuse we see at election time, makes Mahinda a tough candidate to defeat.\u00a0\u00a0 Maithripala cannot afford to dwarf himself (vis-\u00e0-vis Ranil and Chandrika).\u00a0 He has to understand that the President has almost full control of the state and private media. In fact, Maithripala has to see himself as the Mahinda Rajapaksa of 2005 and of course see his opponent as the Ranil Wickremesinghe of that same election. Mahinda won. Barely. He did so because all the money that Ranil could pour into his campaign was effectively countered by the one asset that Maithri can secure: the people. Mahinda could do this because of the JVP. Numbers. Active. Spirit. He could do that because he had in the JHU someone who could write his manifesto (Champika Ranawaka). Mahinda had Wimal, but that was a different Wimal.<\/p>\n

\u2018Early days\u2019, true. They can fast turn into \u2018too late\u2019. If that happens, Maithripala would be another Sarath Fonseka. Ranil would remain Leader of the UNP. A winner all the way.<\/p>\n

*Malinda Seneviratne is the Chief Editor of \u2018The Nation\u2019\u00a0and his articles can be found at\u00a0www.malindawords.blogspot.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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