{"id":133875,"date":"2014-11-29T00:04:57","date_gmt":"2014-11-28T18:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=133875"},"modified":"2014-12-02T07:12:07","modified_gmt":"2014-12-02T01:42:07","slug":"who-will-win-maithri-or-mahinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/who-will-win-maithri-or-mahinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Will win? Maithri Or Mahinda?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By P. Bertie Ranaweerage<\/span><\/a> –<\/b><\/p>\n

\"Bertie<\/a>

Bertie Ranaweerage<\/p><\/div>\n

The political landscape in Sri Lanka has turned upside down during the last seven days with the announcement made by Mr.Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a>, the former Minister of Health that he would challenge the incumbent President at the next Presidential Election as the common candidate. The President and his government never expected that he would be challenged by the General Secretary of his own political party, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. Panic stricken President\u2019s family members ran helter- skelter fearing that they would lose power at the forth coming Presidential Election. They pressed some Ministers and MPs\u00a0 to call press conferences\u00a0 and deny that they would desert the government. State owned SLBC, Rupavahini and ITN, and the Lake House editors have been instructed to\u00a0 attack Maithri, Chandrika<\/span><\/a> and the UNP from morning to late into the night. Racists such as Nalinda Siva, Gunadasa Amarasekara, Bengamuwe Nalaka\u00a0 have begun\u00a0 to mislead the public. We can expect all the Sinhala racist organizations such as BBS<\/span><\/a> , Ravana Balaya, Sinhala Rawaya to join forces to launch a vituperative attack against the common candidate as they are aware that the victory of Maithri will be a grave threat to their very existence.<\/p>\n

\"Mahinda<\/a>In the meantime the Minister of Disaster Management \u00a0Mr. Mahinda Amaraweera has made an\u00a0 revealing \u00a0statement at a press conference held at the SLFP head office on November 25. According to a news story published in the Daily Mirror he admitted that the UPFA members had \u00a0amassed dirty lucre as much as they needed and\u00a0 as such there is no need for them to continue the\u00a0 plundering. Therefore, he requested not to defeat the government by voting the opposition candidate. That statement alone shows their fear and confusion. My view is all the government henchmen and most of the government Ministers and deputy Ministers are in mortal fear that Mahinda<\/span><\/a>\u2019s days are numbered.<\/p>\n

As there were no crossovers to the Opposition on the final budget day, pro Mahinda Ministers said that there would be no further defections \u00a0to the Opposition. Showing to the whole country that pro Mahinda politicians were unaware what was happening behind them, two more UPFA Members of Parliament, namely P.Rajadurai of the Nuwara Eliya district and the UPFA Wanni district MP Hunaiz Farook (ACMC) joined the UNP. In the meantime three pro government Eastern Provincial Council members of Minister Rishard Bathiudeen<\/span><\/a>\u2019s political party, All Ceylon Muslim congress crossed \u00a0over to the Opposition on the instructions of their party, which incidentally \u00a0may\u00a0 lead \u00a0to capture of power \u00a0there by the Opposition. The ACMC was to meet last evening(Saturday) to decide whether to remain with the government or cross to the Opposition. The\u00a0 Sri Lanka Muslim Congress which is led by Minister Hakeem<\/span><\/a>, an unhappy coalition partner of the UPFA ,will arrive at a decision within the next few days\u00a0whether to remain with the government or not. They may \u00a0take a decision to support Maithri in the event more government MPs rally round the common candidate. UPFA appointed MP Aswar who was a staunch supporter of Mahinda resigned \u00a0from the Parliament last evening though his next move is unknown. It looks like that the Muslim community is exerting pressure on pro government Muslim politicians to desert Mahinda.<\/p>\n

MP. Mr.Rajitha Senaratne<\/span><\/a> and Venarable Rathana<\/span><\/a> Thera\u00a0 taking part in the Satana TV programme a week ago said that \u00a0\u00a0many Ministers and Deputy Ministers were \u00a0unhappy and frustrated as Mahinda and his\u00a0 family members have been interfering in their Ministries. My view is some of them are still testing waters to find out whether the sudden change of political weather is going to result in a major flood that will drown Mahinda and his cabal. As Maithri\u2019 is becoming more and more popular every passing day we can expect more government politicians\u2019\u00a0 defections to Maithri\u2019s camp within the course of next two weeks. It is said \u00a0that Mr Jeevan Kumaratunga, the Minister of Postal Services is getting ready to join the Maithri camp. Another interesting development is Miss Hirunika Premachandra\u00a0 who bagged the highest number of preferential votes in the Colombo district at the last Western Provincial Council elections has praised Maithi as a clean and honest politician. It is most likely that she would join Maithri very soon. Mr. Solangaarachchi ,the chairman of the Kollonnawa Pradesheeya Sabha, a close associate of Hirunika<\/a>, has already switched his allegiance to the Common candidate.<\/p>\n

At the last Presidential Election ,which was held on January 26\u00a0 2010,the President Mahinda Rajapaksha who was at the peak of his popularity received 57.88% while the Opposition candidate General Sarath Fonseka<\/span><\/a> polled 40.15% votes.\u00a0 The other 20 candidates could not even garner at least 0.5% of the total valid votes cast at the election. Today ,after almost five years, one cannot deny the fact that the President is less popular mainly due to his family bandyism, authoritarian rule\u00a0 and\u00a0 economic difficulties faced by the poor and the middle class. Due to state sponsored BBS\u2019 anti Muslim hate campaign , Mahinda has become very unpopular among the Muslim community who voted Mahinda overwhelmingly at the last \u00a0Presidential election. Though Thondaman promised his loyalty to Mahinda, two of his MPs left him and joined the UNP recently. As such we cannot expect many Indian Tamil votes to Mahinda. Hence it is fair to calculate that his popularity has gone down by around 5 % which means his popularity was around 52% prior to the Maithri earthquake and JHU\u2019s divorce.<\/p>\n

Maithri-Rajitha led defections to the Opposition was like a bolt from the blue to Mahinda\u2019s arrogant rule and it has surely eroded Mahinda\u2019s voter base at least by several hundred thousand votes. In case another 10 or 12 government MPs defect to the Opposition it will \u00a0probably seal Mahinda\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n

However we have to warn the Maithri camp that Mahinda\u2019s regime will do whatever possible to recapture the \u00a0power at the election. During the election period we can expect unprecedented violence \u00a0to demoralize the activists of the common candidate. Already four violent attacks involving firearms against anti government activists have been unleashed \u00a0by pro Mahinda gangs. Those who have earned billions under Mahinda\u2019s regime will not be silent spectators. They will pour more \u00a0money to Mahinda\u2019s campaign as they do not want to lose the gold mine. Another possibility is vote rigging. MP Ravi Karunanayake has already complained to the Commissioner of Elections that a National Identity Card printing machine had vanished.<\/p>\n

Some have expressed fear that Mahinda would be pressurized\u00a0 by his close associates not to hand over power to the victorious common candidate. It is advisable for the Maithri camp to be ready for any eventuality. The only way that can defeat any illegal attempt to remain in power is organized people\u2019s power. So far I have not seen any serious attempt made\u00a0 by the Maithri camp to organize people into a powerful force. It is the responsibility of the political parties and other organizations which support Maithri to organize their followers into a mass organization with branches in every village , town and city not only to prevent vote rigging but also to prevent attempts at\u00a0 sabotaging\u00a0 the victory of the common candidate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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