{"id":133911,"date":"2014-11-30T00:06:03","date_gmt":"2014-11-29T18:36:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=133911"},"modified":"2014-12-03T12:55:09","modified_gmt":"2014-12-03T07:25:09","slug":"facilitating-rajapaksas-departure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/facilitating-rajapaksas-departure\/","title":{"rendered":"Facilitating Rajapaksa\u2019s Departure"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Kumar David<\/span><\/a> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Prof.<\/a>

Prof. Kumar David<\/p><\/div>\n

This piece is drafted on the premise that Mahinda Rajapakse<\/span><\/a> can be defeated on 8 January 2015, which is not the same as saying it is a certainty – that is too early to judge since the \u00a0\u00a0gravity of the Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a> (MS) challenge may or may not endure. This assumption delimits the scope and defines the structure of my essay. Brevity being the soul of wit, I eschew repeating \u201cAssuming that my supposition is correct\u201d in the body of the text. The logically separate matter of predictions gets scant mention; Lanka sports a bevy of pollster-pundits who lead and mislead and herds of charlatans and conmen-astrologists to fill an asylum.<\/p>\n

Yes, MS, Ranil<\/span><\/a>, Chandrika<\/span><\/a> and their teams have pulled off a coup de grace<\/i>. The imprecations I visited on their heads in recent months for lack of clarity, coordination and commitment, clearly were excessive.Understandably, the hazards of the stratagem made concealment imperative. Still I am delighted since it is rarely that a prophet enjoys such fulsome validation. The teams have pulled off a Single Issue (SI) challenge (MS says the Executive Presidency will be abolished within 100 days) and established a Common Candidature (CC). Every journey begins with a first step which has been taken, but the road ahead is long with many more steps \u00a0\u2013 to Survive, to Win, to Survive Again, and then to Utilise the Victory. Ok, I had better make some sense of this cryptic ordering of steps!<\/p>\n

To Survive till 8 January and to Win<\/b><\/p>\n

Nobody in his senses should put anything beyond the craft, guile and malevolence of the powers that be: \u201cBeware the Jubjub bird and shun the jaws that bite the claws that scratch\u201d<\/i> (A little modified with apologies).<\/i> The clan, in order of perfidy, is struggling to retain its loot, to stay clear of prosecution and imprisonment, and to evade the fate of fallen dictators stained by iniquity. Images of Mussolini strung up on a lamppost, Saddam on trial, and Gaddafi in a ditch, strike dread into febrile minds. It is understandable that the regime is scampering like a headless chicken.<\/p>\n

\"Mahinda<\/a>This however is not my point. More important is that jeopardy for the regime after the event is a precursor of deadly peril for the opposition before it. Who can put assassination, palace coups, manufactured pogroms, emergency rule, and bogus threats to national security to justify brutal suppression, beyond the pale? True the worst can be thrown back if the opposition stays strong, united and mobilised, but apart from these mega scale hazards is the litany of electoral perfidy \u2013 rigging, abuse of state resources, biased police and state officials, and handouts on a hitherto unseen scale. The antidote is to convince the public that Pakse is last year\u2019s baggage; the prospect of future punishment may deter some government servants and less corrupt (are there any?) police officers. I have adopted a tight style; there is a lot to say and limited column inches to say it in. I beg readers to reach behind the sentences in these two paragraphs and reconstruct the perils more fully in their minds.<\/p>\n

Now to \u2018Can the Common Candidate win\u2019 concerns. Putting aside the aforesaid perils, the prospects of defeating the incumbent have soared. The MS-Ranil-CBK move (were they or others \u2013 Mangala, Rajitha<\/span><\/a>, Rajiva<\/span><\/a>, another – the brains behind?) has turned the tables, but counteroffensives still need to be blunted. For sure expect more surprises, some lurid others comic, in the run-up to 8 December and 8 January. In the meantime there are five hurdles the opposition needs to clear.<\/p>\n