{"id":134964,"date":"2014-12-16T00:54:48","date_gmt":"2014-12-15T19:24:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=134964"},"modified":"2014-12-21T00:02:06","modified_gmt":"2014-12-20T18:32:06","slug":"ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/","title":{"rendered":"Ranil Born To Save SLFP Not UNP"},"content":{"rendered":"

By H. L. D. Mahindapala<\/span><\/a> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"H.<\/a>

H. L. D. Mahindapala<\/p><\/div>\n

The public was made to understand that goody-goody Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a> does not care for power but would discard all trappings of\u00a0 power\u00a0 and glory and work jointly to democratize and liberalize the system. The plan revealed to the public was that the presidency will be abolished and power handed over to a prime minister\u00a0 in parliament. But that is not going to happen according to what he says now.<\/p>\n

In any case Sirisena has promised so\u00a0 many things so many parties \u2013 some contradicting the other —\u00a0 that in the end he will not be able to fulfill any. This will create divisive and fissiparous tendencies within the Coalition throwing the parties away from the center. What will be most crucial is not the manifesto due this week. That is all eye-wash. It is the power struggle in which the constituent members of\u00a0 the Coalition\u00a0 will be\u00a0 fighting to grab the bigger share of power that will make or\u00a0 break the Coalition in the long\u00a0 run.<\/p>\n

Signs are there already in motion to make the Coalition unmanageable. Initially, when Sirisena joined the MOU with the UNP he was leaning more towards the UNP because he was dependent on Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a> to deliver UNP votes for\u00a0 him to win the\u00a0 election. But\u00a0 this lovey-dovey affair is bound to be a temporary kiss-and-tell event later. Both need each other right now to gang\u00a0 up against President Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> and both are using each other for their political convenience. After that they go their own way. That is also written in the agreement. The MOU says that it is only for two years. But there is no guarantee that it will last that long either.<\/p>\n

\"Opposition<\/a>This then is the hard reality. So whoever wins on January 8th, 2015 it is only one\u00a0 or the other wing of the SLFP that will rule the roost. Wickremesinghe has rushed to consolidate the Sirisena-wing of the SLFP and if, in due course, the SLFPers decide\u00a0 to gang up the UNPers will be out till 2020 at least. Once again, as in the\u00a0 agreement Wickremesinghe signed with Prabhakaran<\/span><\/a>, he has led his party into a dead-end. Once again UNPers are forced to vote not to bring Wickremesinghe\u00a0 into power but to make one-wing of the SLFP into power.<\/p>\n

If, however, the Sirisena-wing wins the UNPers will have a glorified place designated as prime minister. The notion of Wickremesinghe becoming \u201cthe executive prime minister\u201d \u2013 meaning the all-powerful prime minister with presidential powers in parliament — has slowly but surely evaporated. After promising\u00a0 to transfer the executive powers of the president within 24 hours Sirisena has reneged on it saying that only some powers will be handed over to Wickremesinghe leaving the latter to take it or lump it.<\/p>\n

For the voters, however,\u00a0 it\u2019s a choice between electing one or the other SLFPer. This hardly gives a choice to the voter. If Sirisena wins we are going back to Chandrika<\/span><\/a>–Mangala<\/span><\/a> days. But Wickremesinghe is under the\u00a0 illusion that he has made the smart move of winning power by using Sirisena. His tendency to overrate his smartness is written all over the failures of the UNP to win power in 29 straight elections. Whichever way the election goes it is now clear that Wickremesinghe is\u00a0 going to end up losing (1) the\u00a0 promised \u201cexecutive powers\u201d as prime minister, (2) the party\u2019s identity, (3) the\u00a0 power\u00a0 to grow as\u00a0 an alternative party and (4) his traditional vote bank — all because of his\u00a0 own conviction that he\u00a0 is not a winner. He cries himself hoarse saying that he\u00a0 is\u00a0 the alternative leader but eventually he ends up following other leaders.<\/p>\n

In the\u00a0 meantime, the SLFP has planted its two feet firmly in the two main bases of the political spectrum : one\u00a0 foot is solidly placed in the Government and the other is now\u00a0 in the Opposition hoping\u00a0 to\u00a0 win government. In both places it is\u00a0 on top. Other parties are merely playing\u00a0 second fiddle to the SLFP. It was never in this commanding position ever before.<\/p>\n

Observers will also note that the SLFP rump in the coalition \u2013 CBK, Mangala, Rajitha — has surrounded Sirisena and are keeping him in their firm grip, with Chandrika Kumaratunga dictating terms. This means that the SLFPers will have the ear of Sirisena at all times and\u00a0 that the other lesser parties in the coalition will have to tag along until it becomes intolerable and quit the Coalition. Only Wickremesinghe, in his usual deluded way, believes that he has found a way to power by putting a dummy to contest the election. He was hoping to piggy-back his\u00a0 way to power on Sirisena\u2019s posterior.<\/p>\n

But it has backfired. His calculation was that Sirisena would be his man installed by the power of his\u00a0 votes. To his utter dismay he has discovered\u00a0 now\u00a0 that Sirisena has become Kumaratunga\u2019s man, just by manipulating both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe.\u00a0 After all Sirisena has been a life-long SLFPer and he swears, even now, to restore the Bandaranaike legacy. In pursuit of this Bandaranaike goal Sirisena has vowed to appoint Chandrika Kumaratunga as his official\/unofficial No. 2.\u00a0 He calls it, giving\u00a0 her a \u201cdeserving\u00a0 place\u201d.\u00a0 Well, the \u201cdeserving place\u201d is not to sit on a stool at Sirisena\u2019s feet. She will want a chair next to him as his equal, preferably as the power behind the throne.<\/p>\n

The emerging outlines of this inevitable political power play is becoming clearer by the day. The way it is\u00a0\u00a0 shaping\u00a0 up undoubtedly will be a serious threat to Wickremesinghe\u2019s power-sharing arrangement with the Sirisena. There are also other possible scenarios that will emerge in case Sirisena wins.<\/p>\n

First, there is no guarantee that Sirisena will implement his commitment to hand over \u201cexecutive powers\u201d to Wickremesinghe the way it was initially envisaged in the MOU. Obviously, the decision to backtrack from handing over the Ministry of Defence to Wickremesinghe must have come from CBK who was obsessed with retaining the power of the forces in her hands when she was president. She fell out with Wickremesinghe, her then prime minster, mainly on this issue. So under Sirisena too Wickremesinghe will have to be a lame-duck prime minister, loaded only with the messy and the intractable issues of cost of living, debt servicing, adverse effects of the world market forces etc. He will have to face the brunt of keeping\u00a0 the hard part of fulfilling the economic promises and, in the end, he will be blamed\u00a0 for all the failures of the Sirisena regime.<\/p>\n

Second,\u00a0 Wickremesinghe will not get the chance of strutting the international theatre as the mega-star from Sri Lanka \u2013 a role which loves to play passionately — because Mangala Samaraweera will hog the limelight in that department. Samaraweera will also lean more towards Chandrika and Sirisena leaving Wickremesinghe to stew in his own juices. The current \u201cMy-3-pala-naya\u201d of CBK-Ranil-Sirisena will change dramatically into the \u201cMy-3-pala-naya\u201d of CBK-Mangala-Sirisena, leaving Wickremesinghe in the outer. He will always\u00a0 be an outsider in the inner circles of the Sirisena regime.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, the chances of the SLFPers getting together is greater than all of them running to elevate their traditional\u00a0 opponents in the UNP into positions of power greater than the combined powers of Sirisena-CBK-Mangala. In any case, Samaraweera\u00a0 already nurtures a grudge against Wickremesinghe. He feels slighted that Sajith Premadasa has been given the No. 2 spot in the UNP which means that his chances are with the Sirisena-Chandrika wing of the SLFP than with the UNP..<\/p>\n

Third, according to Tissa Attanayake the UNP is now run by Chandrika Kumaratunga who issues orders from her residence near the Parliament. At this late stage, in the middle of an election, Wickremesinghe has no way of asserting his\u00a0 power to gain\u00a0 a commanding position in the coalition. He has to take orders from the SLFP for him to survive now. He can\u2019t get out of it now because he has conceded from the start that he is not a winning candidate. So he has resigned to play the role assigned to him by CBK-Sirisena combo. And in due course\u00a0 he will be pushed into a corner from which he cannot get out, except to jump out of it. CBK, in particular, is playing the role of the organ grinder, with great relish, for the performing monkeys to dance according to her\u00a0 tune.<\/p>\n

The chances of the SLFPers ganging\u00a0 up against Wickremesinghe in post-election phase is also greater because the coterie round Sirisena will see to it that Wickremesinghe will not rise as a force mightier than any one of them. If Sirisena hands over critical powers to Wickremesinghe where will that leave the SLFPers? Will they have to go cap in hand to get favours from Wickremesinghe? And how far will Wickremesinghe go to accommodate the SLFPers when his gang is waiting to grab what they had missed for last couple of decades. The pull-push tensions\u00a0 of\u00a0 rivals claiming their share will strain the\u00a0 Coalition and before long the internal power-struggle within the two major parties \u2013not\u00a0 to\u00a0 mention claims of the other minor parties — will surface, breaking up their current lovey-dovey affair.<\/p>\n

Seasoned power-brokers like CBK, Mangala and Sirisena will make sure, in direct and\u00a0 indirect ways, to impress on Wickremesinghe that\u00a0 he is prime minister through the courtesy of the SLFP. The\u00a0 SLFP trio in command can pull the rug under him any time they wish. The UNPers will be reduced to the pathetic plight of singing the praises of Sirisena and CBK and not Wickremesinghe. UNPers singing halleluiah to the Bandaranaikes \u2013 not Senanayakes — will be a common occurrence. Remember how Sirisena walked into Siri Kotha singing\u00a0 the praises of D. S. Senanayake? Well, it will be\u00a0 the reverse when Wickremesinghe installs Sirisena as President. Some of them might even cross over to the SLFP leaving Wickremesinghe crying in the wilderness again.<\/p>\n

Once again Wickremesinghe has led the UNP into\u00a0 nowhere. This will be Wickremesinghe\u2019s last gamble. After this\u00a0 he will have no leg to stand on. UNPers who are sick of his failed gambles will ask: Why should\u00a0 they support a leader who says\u00a0 he can\u2019t win elections? Is there any point in hanging on to a leader who is bending into two for others to climb on the back of UNPers to\u00a0 become\u00a0 presidents?<\/p>\n

*To be continued \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[…]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":134449,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,46,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombotelegraph","category-constitutional-reforms","category-editorial"],"yoast_head":"\nRanil Born To Save SLFP Not UNP - Colombo Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ranil Born To Save SLFP Not UNP - Colombo Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[…]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Colombo Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-12-15T19:24:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-12-20T18:32:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/Mahindapala-HLD.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"281\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"367\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"COLOMBO TELEGRAPH\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"COLOMBO TELEGRAPH\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/\",\"name\":\"Ranil Born To Save SLFP Not UNP - Colombo Telegraph\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/Mahindapala-HLD.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-12-15T19:24:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-12-20T18:32:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/#\/schema\/person\/9db3d0cfcfa59e1997e3c3524d454cb3\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/ranil-born-to-save-slfp-not-unp\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/Mahindapala-HLD.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/Mahindapala-HLD.jpg\",\"width\":281,\"height\":367,\"caption\":\"H. 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