{"id":138617,"date":"2015-02-05T04:04:28","date_gmt":"2015-02-04T22:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=138617"},"modified":"2015-02-10T04:11:46","modified_gmt":"2015-02-09T22:41:46","slug":"sri-lankas-political-moment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/sri-lankas-political-moment\/","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lanka\u2019s Political Moment\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Harendra Alwis<\/span><\/a>\u00a0–<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Harendra<\/a>

Harendra Alwis<\/p><\/div>\n

A change of guard<\/strong><\/p>\n

The future of Sri Lanka\u2019s democracy has reached a pivotal point. On the 9th\u00a0of January, it awoke after decades of paralytic slumber. The nepotism, corruption and excesses of the\u00a0Rajapaksa regime were not unknown or unsuspected; but\u00a0Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> himself was seen as a strong leader \u2013 especially based on his credentials as the\u00a0leader of an unprecedented\u00a0military\u00a0success that\u00a0defeated\u00a0a 30-year brutal separatist movement. Their successful conclusion of the war effort, earned his \u2018family-led\u2019 government a reputation as a stable and secure choice as opposed to the opposition which for 29 consecutive elections, had failed to win the confidence of a majority of the electorate.<\/p>\n

However, the events of January 9th\u00a0give as much reason for celebration as for\u00a0continued vigilance and\u00a0concern. The\u00a0widespread nepotism and cronyism that characterised the\u00a0Rajapaksa regime also led to a serious breakdown of the rule of law. The impunity\u00a0with which\u00a0those close to the regime\u00a0were able to\u00a0abuse power and public wealth became a social cancer that had to be removed.\u00a0The only\u00a0democratic\u00a0option for doing so was through the\u00a0electoral defeat\u00a0of\u00a0Mahinda\u00a0Rajapaksa;\u00a0on whom the political capital and legitimacy of the regime largely rested. The president and his cronies had everything to lose with the looming electoral defeat and therefore had every incentive to subvert the will of the people if it\u00a0threatened\u00a0to change the regime. There are allegations that they planned to do\u00a0precisely\u00a0that.\u00a0The\u00a0outcome of investigations into their alleged attempts halt or annul the results of the election and remain in power with the support of elements of the armed forces are expected reveal the full extent of the threat they posed to Sri Lanka\u2019s democratic framework and culture. It is the highest form of treason and anyone found guilty must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.<\/p>\n

The other extraordinary – though not unexpected – development on the 9th\u00a0of January was the swearing in of\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a>\u00a0–\u00a0leader\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0longstanding and virtually unelectable\u00a0opposition – as prime-minister. The\u00a0Sirisena\u00a0manifesto also made it explicit that Mr\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u00a0would be appointed as prime minister under his presidency.\u00a0The appointment was\u00a0accepted\u00a0by the electorate based on the\u00a0perception that Mr.\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u00a0would discharge the responsibilities of\u00a0a prime minister\u00a0more competently and honourably than the incumbent at the time.\u00a0Yet, the change of government and the appointment of prime minister was done through a political manoeuvre;\u202fwhile Mr.\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u2019s\u00a0party was still a minority in parliament; and thus lacked\u00a0an explicit mandate from the electorate\u00a0to govern.\u00a0The process sets a\u00a0precedent\u00a0that is concerning and\u00a0does not bode well for Sri Lanka\u2019s democracy. Therefore, the\u00a0future of\u00a0Sri Lanka\u2019s democracy\u00a0and shape of the nation state it cohabits remain\u00a0open to be\u00a0negotiated\u00a0by the political forces that this reflection intends to identify and analyse.<\/p>\n

\"maithripala<\/a>Politics and political movements in Sri Lanka still have a tendency to crystallize around a cultural memory of feudalism and class that is woven into the historical identity\u00a0of\u00a0the modern nation state. A strong democratic outcry and social conscience combined to drive the\u00a0Rajapaksa regime out of office. The\u00a0political actors and movements that made\u00a0up the broad coalition\u00a0will be a main focus of this reflection.\u00a0Their existence, organisation and increased political relevance needs to be celebrated and nurtured. However, it must also be acknowledged that – by all accounts – the future and very existence of Sri Lanka\u2019s democracy\u00a0hung by a thread in the early hours of the 9th\u00a0of January.\u00a0It\u00a0was left in the hands of a few individuals to rescue and reclaim. Those events highlight the need for\u00a0stronger and more independent\u00a0democratic institutions\u00a0that are\u00a0accessible to all citizens equitably. Such reforms require political leadership – not only to design and implement structural reforms to the state and its architecture, but also to broad-base the social political conscience and its\u00a0underlying\u00a0sense of justice. In my analysis of the political leadership, stakeholder and elites, I will aim to highlight the opportunities and threats that the present political moment holds for the integrity of the state as well as its democratic framework.<\/p>\n

The feudal and class-based\u00a0political conscience of the island\u2019s society\u00a0manifests even today in the political aspirations and vocabulary of the \u2018common man\u2019 who is yet evolving into a \u2018citizen\u2019 in thought and\u00a0action. The majority of\u202fSri Lanka\u2019s electorate has a rural base that has been conditioned by culture and history to cooperate with the intentions of political elites – if not be subservient to them. The presidential election of 2015 was contested on a platform\u202fwhich was conducive to – perhaps for the first time – shifting\u00a0that\u00a0political conscience away from its feudal underpinnings\u00a0in a more liberal direction.<\/p>\n

Sri Lanka – throughout its history – has been ruled by exclusive classes of political elites. From Kings whose right to the throne was based on their caste and clan and whose legitimacy to\u00a0govern\u00a0was based on having custody of a sacred relic,\u00a0and\u00a0colonial governments that were led by\u00a0the\u00a0white\u00a0colonisers,\u00a0to the handful of families that have dominated the two major political parties since independence; the common man has not been afforded access to national-level political power. The only exceptions were the Presidency of\u00a0Ranasinghe\u00a0Premadasa\u00a0from 1989-1993 and that of\u00a0Mahinda\u00a0Rajapaksa from 2005-2015.\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u00a0is the nephew of President JR Jayewardene and\u00a0Ranil\u2019s cousin Ruwan\u00a0Wijewardene\u00a0who is now the state minister of defence is the great grandson of \u202fSri Lanka\u2019s first\u00a0prime minister DS Senanayake.\u00a0It is clear therefore, that political power in post independent Sri Lanka has shifted between the UNP dominated by the\u00a0Senanayake-Jayewardene-Wickramasinghe\u00a0clan and the SLFP dominated by the Bandaranaike clan.<\/p>\n

Cultural memory and the political conscience of a society cannot be fixed of course – they evolve and transform with time and changes in the political environment of a country and of the world.\u00a0The biblical account of the birth of the Jewish nation\u00a0\u2013 in the book of Exodus \u2013 recounts how the liberated slaves of Egypt had to wonder the dessert for forty four years before they were ready to build a new nation and state.\u00a0History\u00a0often\u00a0suggests that it takes\u00a0at least two generation\u00a0to significantly transform the political conscience of a society.\u00a0Just over two generations after independence, the people of Sri Lanka was also ready to break-away from the established political dynasties and elect a \u2018common man as our President – in\u00a0R. Premadasa<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0It is unthinkable that such a political figure from an \u2018ordinary\u2019 background, could have emerged democratically in colonial Ceylon before independence or soon afterwards.\u00a0Indeed, it was\u00a0in the late 80s\u00a0that the Nehru-Gandhi\u00a0dynasty\u00a0also\u00a0began\u00a0its\u00a0steady decline and loss of the\u00a0monopoly\u00a0it held\u00a0on political power in India – which it has not reclaimed convincingly since Rajiv Gandhi. Yet, in Sri Lanka, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga<\/span><\/a> would reclaim the stake of the political elites yet again\u00a0in the 1990s. In the absence of a viable successor from the Bandaranaike clan to succeed her\u00a0\u2013\u00a0in\u00a0Mahinda\u00a0Rajapaksa, someone who came from outside the Bandaranaike clan was able to\u00a0become leader of the SLFP\u00a0for the first time. Notably in that time,\u00a0the electability and political viability\u00a0of the\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickramasinghe\u00a0led\u00a0and middle-class dominated UNP declined dramatically to unprecedented\u00a0electoral lows.<\/p>\n

I have in the past, reflected on the demographic constitution and political relevance of the middle class of Sri Lanka<\/a>, and will therefore not revisit\u00a0that\u00a0analysis\u00a0here. It suffices to note\u00a0however,\u00a0that the present\u00a0make-up\u00a0of the UNP and its cabinet members in the current government\u00a0is disproportionately\u00a0weighted towards\u00a0the middle-class.\u00a0Perhaps\u00a0there is\u00a0a correlation between\u00a0the\u00a0repeated electoral losses\u00a0of the UNP\u00a0in the previous two decades and the erosion of its popular base among the masses – which\u00a0Dr Dayan\u00a0Jayatilake\u00a0and others have\u00a0characterised\u00a0as the popular nationalist base of the Sinhalese – under the leadership of\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickramasinghe.<\/p>\n

It is from such an unelectable proposition that\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u00a0has been able to expertly\u00a0manoeuvre\u00a0himself and his party back to government – bypassing\u00a0the need to win a\u00a0general election\u00a0and thus without a clear mandate to govern that can only come with such a victory. The risks and opportunities that\u00a0such a subversion of the electoral mandate\u00a0poses for the democratic framework of the country requires closer scrutiny. Firstly,\u00a0it must be conceded that\u00a0the current government has a clear mandate to implement\u00a0the\u00a0series of democratic reforms that\u00a0won\u00a0broad support of the electorate\u00a0at the presidential election\u00a0– including the intelligentsia, civil society movements and even the opposition. It must therefore be held accountable for implementing those reforms within the promised time-frame. Secondly, it must be made clear that the electorate has not had a fair opportunity to evaluate and vote on the domestic and foreign policy frameworks of\u202fthe present government. Instead what they actually voted for was the ouster of the\u00a0Rajapaksa regime. Therefore the government does not have a clear mandate to make wholesale changes to the domestic and foreign policy frameworks\u00a0of the country apart from administrative reforms and course-corrections to re-align with accepted\u00a0and long-held\u00a0norms\u00a0where necessary in the national interest. The new government\u2019s\u00a0West-leaning foreign policy that risks weakening or damaging ties with China and Russia as well as the potential neglect of countries of the global south is a matter of serious concern – not only for its potential implications which will be explored separately, but also because it lacks a clear mandate from the people, and thus any legitimacy to make serious changes of course and direction on such matters.<\/p>\n

In electing\u00a0Maithripala\u00a0Sirisena<\/span><\/a>\u00a0as president, the\u00a0the\u00a0electorate has yet again opted \u202ffor a leader who understands the aspirations of the common man and\u00a0who\u00a0is able to represent their interests in policies and structure of the political machine. Yet, in the re-emergence of Chandrika Bandaranaike\u00a0Kumaratunga\u00a0and\u00a0Ranil\u00a0Wickremesinghe, the old political\u00a0elites\u00a0have regained their grip on the two main political parties that are also the power centres of the country. The emergence of the JVP as a serious third contender in the Sri Lankan political sphere under the leadership of\u00a0Anura\u00a0Kumara\u00a0Dissanayake<\/span><\/a>\u00a0is perhaps the most progressive outcome in the Sri Lankan democratic process. His role, and the role of the JVP and other movements in creating the present political will be analysed\u00a0in subsequent reflections. It remains unlikely at this stage however, that the JVP would emerge as a serious contender to become the leading party in opposition.\u00a0Yet the\u00a0possibility\u00a0that they will challenge the dominance of the SLFP and UNP remains \u2013 unless\u00a0credible reforms are made to the structure and representative makeup of\u00a0those\u00a0two main political parties. Whether the threat of being overtaken by the JVP proves sufficient motivation for the SLFP and UNP to undertake\u00a0such\u00a0a serious reform agenda remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

In the course of post independent Sri Lankan politics, there is much to be said in defence of times when the middle and upper-classes were over-represented in the legislative, executive and judicial functions of the state. Yet, the promise of true democracy is the equitable distribution of power in society\u00a0and\u00a0the political empowerment of the\u00a0economically and socially marginalised masses so that they too may have\u00a0guaranteed,\u00a0equal\u00a0and independent\u00a0access to justice and opportunity. Mr\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u00a0and Mrs Bandaranaike Kumaratunga may yet be the last of the elite political dynasties that dominated the first two generations of post independent Sri Lankan politics.\u00a0They may also represent the last of the\u00a0upper-class, pro-western, neoliberal interests in\u00a0Sri Lanka\u2019s governing ideology and foreign policy framework. On the other hand, their reclamation of the two – still dominant – power centres of Sri Lankan politics may represent a resurgence of elite interests and thinking in the country\u2019s governance.\u00a0Wickremesinghe\u2019s\u00a0stubborn hold on the UNP leadership and the re-entry of Mrs. Bandaranaike\u00a0Kumaratunga into the higher echelons of the SLFP are significant events that requires more attention and scrutiny by public intellectuals and political analysts alike.<\/p>\n

Arguably, every country, organisation and team needs elites to lead and carry them to greater heights, and Sri Lanka would not be an exception. However, those elites must be chosen based on their capabilities and performance. A culture that celebrates elite performance will inevitably grow, but one that fosters \u2018elitism\u2019 that is not based on talent and high-achievement, but purely on lineage and affiliations\u00a0will be doomed to fail in a competitive world order. A highly disproportionate majority of political leaders\u00a0in post-independence Sri Lanka\u00a0had achieved that status through their affiliations to political families or a few prominent \u2018elitist\u2019 institutions.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the single most significant liability of the\u00a0Rajapaksa regime were\u00a0its brazen embrace of\u00a0nepotism and cronyism and\u00a0the\u00a0broad\u00a0social resentment that built up against it. In that light, the\u00a0make-up\u00a0of the new Cabinet and occupants of the higher echelons of political power\u00a0in the country at present\u00a0also represent a narrow and disproportionately privileged slither of Sri Lankan society who have little defence against\u00a0similar\u00a0allegations that could be made against them.<\/p>\n

Yet it remains that the result of the presidential election on 9th<\/span>\u00a0January \u2013 allegations of a failed coup<\/span><\/a> notwithstanding \u2013 not only bodes well for both the state and its democracy.\u00a0There were legitimate\u00a0fears\u00a0\u2013 though perhaps never\u00a0to be\u00a0known for sure \u2013 that democracy itself would have retreated into the\u00a0Rajapaksa\u2019s\u00a0iron grip, in the aftermath of the alternative result. Indeed the\u00a0Rajapaksa campaign strategy was nothing but an attempt to securitise every conceivable political issue that the country was facing. Their projection of the opposition itself as a threat to national security, left little to the imagination about how they would have acted to \u2018mop-up\u2019 their political opponents if they has managed to retain their grip on power \u2013 and the security apparatus in particular.\u00a0However, subsequent developments also raise substantial concerns that purging one burgeoning political dynasty should not pave way for two more to replace it with.\u00a0It is clear that 9th\u00a0January represents a change of guard in Sri Lankan politics. What is not so clear is whether the old guard was replaced with the new, or whether the new was replaced with the old.<\/p>\n

*Harendra Alwis is a business professional based in Melbourne, Australia. He has a Masters\u2019 degree in International Relations from the University of Melbourne<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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