{"id":148211,"date":"2015-08-01T00:01:39","date_gmt":"2015-07-31T18:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=148211"},"modified":"2015-08-07T15:45:46","modified_gmt":"2015-08-07T10:15:46","slug":"mahinda-the-trampoline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/mahinda-the-trampoline\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahinda The Trampoline"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Uditha Devapriya<\/span><\/a> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Uditha<\/a>

Uditha Devapriya<\/p><\/div>\n

Here’s a question. Who\u2019s worse: the person who cashes in on another\u2019s victory by jumping over and then abandoning him or the person who doesn\u2019t but still uses that other for his campaign? Not an easy question, we note. People are frail. Politicians are frail. They have no permanent friends and for this reason their preferred outcomes shift over time. (Dr) Mervyn Silva, for instance, would hardly have baked bread with Ranil Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/a> or Arjuna Ranatunga this time last year. Yes, it\u2019s a small world. Not that this makes it better. Or worse.<\/p>\n

For Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> however, there\u2019s really no choice. He has no permanent friends, but he has his clique. That clique has been rooting for him. Still is. Its first \u201cvictory\u201d (if you can call it that) was the Nugegoda<\/span><\/a> rally. Extrapolating this to the UPFA\u2019s decision to nominate him for the election is simplistic and ridiculous. But that’s the “narrative” his faction continue to read. They\u2019ve \u201cwon\u201d what they want so far. Can\u2019t blame them for believing they\u2019ll \u201cwin\u201d in future.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the former president has no option. He must stand by his clique. Always.<\/p>\n

But the likes of\u00a0Udaya Gammanpila,\u00a0Wimal Weerawansa, Dinesh Gunawardena, and Vasudeva Nanayakkara will not be enough. That is why (for instance) Rajapaksa could not have (even with those four rioting throughout the country on his behalf) obtained the support of his party if it wasn\u2019t for Susil Premajayantha and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa.<\/p>\n

And now, those who chose to go dumb when Sirisena\u2019s faction trashed their man’s predecessor are coming out. One by one.<\/p>\n

\"Mahinda<\/a>It happened two weeks ago. Three Deputy Ministers \u2013 Lasantha Alagiyawanna, Sudarshani Fernandopulle, and Eric Weerawardena \u2013 resigned from their posts. They were not Mahinda loyalists. Indeed, if it wasn\u2019t for Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a>\u2019s infamous \u201cdeclaration\u201d on July 14 they wouldn\u2019t have made their move. They affirmed loyalty to the SLFP and UPFA. Their statement came right after the Mahinda Faction had made one in support of Rajapaksa at the same venue (the Opposition Leader\u2019s office). Timely. Calculated.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a problem here however. All three of them in effect \u201clooked\u201d the other way when the \u201cBring Back Mahinda\u201d campaign was in full sway. If they ignored and even discouraged that through silence once, what explains their change of face now? Where do their loyalties lie?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s not forget that they resigned during the election season, i.e. when ministerial posts are worth a dime a dozen and getting a\u00a0manape\u00a0is more important. In this context would it make sense to consider their decision(s) as an affirmation of loyalty to their former leader? Of course not. It doesn\u2019t take a political scientist to conclude that they downplayed Rajapaksa\u2019s campaign even during the presidential election. They were among the first to get on Sirisena\u2019s platform after he won.<\/p>\n

Is this a problem for the has-been president? Yes and no. Most of those contesting from the UPFA have no \u201cleader\u201d to turn to. Maithripala Sirisena has in effect given up party leadership (until the election\u2019s over that is) and this means there\u2019s no person to “hold up” the UPFA. Sure, the president did himself no favours by confessing (with pride) that he saved Ranil Wickremesinghe\u2019s skin. But politics isn\u2019t all about popular mandates and for this reason it won\u2019t be surprising if he goes back to leading SLFPers while doing his best to castrate his own party after August 17.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, there\u2019s Mahinda. He’s different. His loyalty to party is uncontested. That wave gathering around him is irresistible. Makes sense to be on his side. Votes don\u2019t come easily, after all. That\u2019s why those who\u2019ve renounced their ministerial posts (with chest-beating words) are claiming that they are \u201cwith\u201d him. That they\u2019ve realised their folly and have come to embrace him.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s just rhetoric however. They wouldn’t be using Mahinda if they knew they’d win without him. What warrants scrutiny therefore is what they want with him.<\/p>\n

What happens after August 17? Nimal Siripala de Silva says \u201cI will be the first to announce him as prime minister\u201d. That\u2019s rubbish, as everyone who has read the Constitution will realise. Whoever’s vying for the prime ministerial post (according to Article 43) shouldn\u2019t only command the confidence of the Parliament. The president must choose him. That explains why a) Sirisena chose Wickremesinghe and a minority government and b) this was not unconstitutional (never mind what Sarath N. Silva can or will say).<\/p>\n

Now here\u2019s the pincer. If Sirisena decides to go for a National Government (he has indicated that), and he opts for Ranil over Mahinda, where will Alagiyawanna be? Fernandopulle? Weerawardena? Janaka Bandara Tennakoon? Will they continue their Mahinda-love? Or will they join this coalition, obtaining (as they did before) ministerial posts based on loyalty to the president?<\/p>\n

All this is conjecture. Guesswork. But if those who win thanks to the former president abandon their\u00a0de facto\u00a0patron for ministerial portfolios, they’ve got nothing to lose. Nor has Rajapaksa, for that matter. If he rides on a sympathy wave again, it\u2019ll accumulate. Based on how (un)popular the National Government will be, that\u2019ll work in his favour. Someday.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, he\u2019ll have to wait. He\u2019ll have to be a Trampoline. Tough, yes. Can’t help.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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