{"id":149145,"date":"2015-08-16T17:08:30","date_gmt":"2015-08-16T11:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=149145"},"modified":"2015-08-22T16:13:20","modified_gmt":"2015-08-22T10:43:20","slug":"a-victory-for-democratic-revolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/a-victory-for-democratic-revolution\/","title":{"rendered":"A Victory For \u2018Democratic Revolution\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Laksiri Fernando<\/span><\/a> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Dr.<\/a>

Dr. Laksiri Fernando<\/p><\/div>\n

Both President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremasinghe<\/span><\/a> have called the ongoing change a \u2018revolution\u2019 whatever the attendant infirmities or exaggerations. It is through the same democratic processes that those weaknesses could be rectified. The participation of the people and the civil society is of paramount importance. If January 8th was the first stage of that revolution, today, the August 17th undoubtedly is going to be the second stage.<\/p>\n

The following is what Wikipedia gives as a definition for democratic revolution.<\/p>\n

\u201cA democratic revolution<\/strong> is a political science term denoting a revolution<\/strong> in which a democracy<\/strong> is instituted, replacing a previous non-democratic<\/strong> government, or in which revolutionary<\/strong> change is brought about through democratic<\/strong> means, usually without violence.\u201d (Emphasis is not mine).<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The January change was a partial but a great victory. People at that election ousted the authoritarian president, Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a>, nevertheless the Parliament remained the same. That is why a second stage of that revolution is necessary. Although the President became the President of the SLFP and the UPFA, the \u2018old regime\u2019 did not want to give up power. The \u2018bring back Mahinda\u2019 movement signified the machinations of the \u2018old regime.\u2019<\/p>\n

Now we have passed that stage and the decision is placed before the people again to take a wise and a rational decision to move forward without rancour or violence towards a more democratic direction to ensure \u2018sustainable development\u2019 and \u2018prosperity for all,\u2019 without distinction as to religion, ethnicity or any other.<\/p>\n

A Possible Scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is unlikely that any political party or a group of parties, either the United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) or the old regime\u2019s United People\u2019s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) would obtain more than 113 seats in Parliament to comfortably form a majority government. That is one predicament of the present proportional representation and the current \u2018balance of political forces\u2019 since particularly the JVP and the TNA are contesting independently. That was not the case at the presidential elections on 8th January or one may call at the \u2018first stage\u2019 of the revolution.<\/p>\n

The second stage appears to be little more complicated in terms of electoral politics.<\/p>\n

\"Ranil<\/a>The most possible and most desirably scenario, under the circumstances, would be for the UNFGG to take a lead and then a National Government could easily be formed with the support of the \u2018truly democratic\u2019 sections of the SLFP loyal to President Maithripala Sirisena<\/span><\/a>. Such a national government, Ranil Wickremasinghe as the Prime Minister, is not going to be a minority government like in the recent past after January, but a majority government with the UNFGG and the UNP as the leading party or the force.<\/p>\n

I would personally urge the President not to take the \u2018undesirable\u2019 and \u2018opportunist\u2019 elements from the SLFP or the UPFA into such a Cabinet or even appoint them as Deputy Ministers. There is a paramount need to have a \u2018clean\u2019 and a \u2018stable\u2019 government.<\/p>\n

Rajapaksa to the Dustbin<\/strong><\/p>\n

There can be a lesser possibility that the UPFA would have a lead, either obtaining 113 seats or coming closer to that mark. The possibility of the UPFA obtaining 113 is however quite remote and almost zero. Even if it is the case, the UPFA is terribly split because of Rajapaksa ambitions and there is a strong opposition within the SLFP not to have Mahinda Rajapaksa as the PM. This is apart from President Sirisena\u2019s position. President Sirisena has discussed hypothetically or polemically his position under such a scenario as the President of the SLFP (and not as the President of the country) in his letter to Rajapaksa dated 12 August 2005<\/span><\/a>. The following quotes are my translations from that letter.
\nFirst:<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the forthcoming elections, if the UPFA manages to reach the minimum 113 mark of seats to form a government, I believe who should be appointed as the Prime Minister is a senior member of the SLFP who so far has failed to have this opportunity.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Therefore in plain \u2018Sinhalese,\u2019 Rajapaksa is out. In President\u2019s opinion and wish it should go to another senior member of the SLFP.
\nSecond:<\/p>\n

\u201cIn case, the UPFA failing to near the 113 mark and only come closer, then as the Executive President I can intervene to obtain the necessary other seats to form a government. Even in this event, who should become the Prime Minister is not you<\/span> but another senior member of the party.\u201d (My emphasis).<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The second statement makes it more imperative, categorically saying, NOT YOU (oba novai<\/em>).<\/p>\n

As we have already pointed out, Sirisena has written the letter not as the President of the country, but the President of the SLFP. It is not a constitutional position that he has articulated, but a political one as the leader of the SLFP. Everyone knows however that he is \u2018two in one.\u2019 Therefore, what he says as the President of the SLFP has an underpinning as the President of the country.<\/p>\n

In simple words, it is clear that Rajapaksa does not entertain consensus within the UPFA, particularly the SLFP, to make him the person who \u2018commands the (majority) confidence of Parliament\u2019 according to Article 43 (3). It would not be an arbitrary decision by the President but the political reality.<\/p>\n

Even in the case of the UPFA winning a clear majority, the person \u201cmost likely to command the confidence of Parliament\u201d would be Ranil Wickremasinghe and not Rajapaksa. This may appear contradictory to some, but that is not the case in reality. The declared policy of Maithripala Sirisena at the January election, and thereafter, and the policy of the UNFGG is to form a \u2018national government.\u2019 This is what is necessary for the second stage of the \u2018democratic revolution.\u2019<\/p>\n

Taking Over the SLFP<\/strong><\/p>\n

More importantly, President Maithripala Sirisena has moved decisively to take control of the SLFP and also the UPFA. In addition to his letter to Mahinda Rajapaksa, denouncing the latter\u2019s destructive politics of communalism or racism (vargawadaya<\/em>), Sirisena has also suspended Anura Priyadarshana Yapa as the SLFP General Secretary, and Susil Premajayanth as the UPFA General Secretary. These decisions are endorsed by the District Court of Colombo based on the SLFP constitution.<\/p>\n

One may think that these decisions are late, and if these decisions were taken earlier, even Rajapaksa could have been prevented from contesting from the SLFP or the UPFA. Even I felt the same when the President failed to prevent Mahinda Rajapaksa contesting. But better late than never.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, if these sackings were done closer to the nomination time or before, then they could have led to unnecessary legal battles and even violent conflicts. The smooth control of the SLFP would not be the result. The rationale of these moves at this stage is not that the UPFA is winning, but losing. It is particularly to preserve the SLFP and to reorganize it as a \u2018Social Democratic Party,\u2019 representing all communities that this decision has been taken in addition to preserve the \u2018democratic revolution\u2019 that was unleashed in January. This is very clear from the letter that President has written to Rajapaksa. Undoubtedly, Rajapaksa and his acolytes, particularly Yapa and Premajayanth, are to be blamed for the impending defeat.<\/p>\n

The appointment of Professor Wiswa Warnapala as the (acting) General Secretary of the UPFA has a special meaning. He has necessary connections with the two main (old) leftist parties (CP and the LSSP) and others to possibly win over them from Rajapaksa\u2019s communalist scheme without dragging the country into another \u201983 July. Under the immediate circumstances, it would not be Susil Premjayanth who would be handling the selections under the UPFA national list, but Wiswa Warnapala on the advice of the President. Warnapala, a former Minister and a long standing SLFP member, perhaps is the only academic in politics who has not tainted his career through opportunistic politics like GL Peiris or Rajiva Wijesinha.<\/p>\n

Danger of Communalism<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is a more profound reason to take over the SLFP and the UPFA at the brink of the elections. There are great possibilities that certain sections of the UPFA would be planning communal violence, at post-elections, after their impending defeat. President Sirisena has named them as \u2018gangs and groups\u2019 (kalli saha kandayam<\/em>), in his letter to Rajapaksa.<\/p>\n

The President would be undoubtedly taking firm security measures to thwart any efforts at communal violence aftermath of the elections whoever wins. It is to preserve the good name of the SLFP and the UPFA, under such circumstances, that the President has taken over the control of those political organizations. After all he is the leader of the SLFP and the UPFA, however they have been hijacked by the unscrupulous \u2018gangs and groups.\u2019<\/p>\n

President in his letter has accused Rajapaksa that \u201cduring the last nine years that you were leading, the SLFP has become a party that has disregarded (pitu pe<\/em>) the plural realty of the country.\u201d He has also asked the question from Rajapaksa that \u201chaven\u2019t you realized that this [communal] extremism that you inflame has worked against you for your defeat on the 8th of January?\u201d It is the word \u2018vargawadaya<\/em>\u2019 (meaning racism) that he has used in disgust against Rajapaksa.<\/p>\n

The letter to Rajapaksa and the takeover of the SLFP have a close connection with a firm determination to reorganize the party. The five paged letter is like a blueprint for that reorganization, the full contents of which could be discussed at a later occasion. The two important principles that the President has declared firmly in order to re-build the SLFP are \u2018Social Democracy\u2019 and \u2018Pluralism.\u2019<\/p>\n

There cannot be any doubt that Sri Lanka is at the brink of the second stage of the \u2018democratic revolution.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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