{"id":183559,"date":"2017-10-30T00:32:21","date_gmt":"2017-10-29T19:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=183559"},"modified":"2017-11-03T00:32:59","modified_gmt":"2017-11-02T19:02:59","slug":"lord-naseby-the-mythical-40000-the-feel-good-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/lord-naseby-the-mythical-40000-the-feel-good-factor\/","title":{"rendered":"Lord Naseby, The Mythical 40,000 & The Feel-Good Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Sanja De Silva Jayatilleka<\/a>\u00a0\u2013<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Sanja De Silva Jayatilleka<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cEngaging in arguments and debates\u00a0in the international domain over the number of civilians who may have died at a particular time in the country will not help resolve any issues, in a meaningful manner, locally, except a feel good factor for a few individuals who may think that they have won a debate or scored points over someone or the other<\/i>.\u201d ~\u00a0<\/b><\/span>Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maheshini Colonne (The Island<\/i> 27<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span> October 2017)<\/span><\/p>\n

Debates<\/i><\/b> in the international domain are exactly how the international community, which includes the UN and other international organizations, strive to reflect pluralism, obtaining the multiple perspectives of their members in order to reach decisions, either by reaching consensus or through a vote. There are debates which may lead to negotiations and eventual consensus or arguments which lead to a decision through a vote. Debates and reasoned, fact-based argumentation are necessary procedures when a State defends itself as it must, against glaring falsehoods. It is not something a State can avoid, resentful that a few individuals may feel good about it. <\/span><\/p>\n

The figure of forty thousand civilian casualties during the last stages of the war in Sri Lanka has been contentious from the moment it was asserted. Repeated use of it by those interested in pushing this unverified figure gained momentum until it became accepted as a credible number in most of the Western media, after it was mentioned in the UN Secretary-General\u2019s Panel of Experts\u2019 report, aka<\/i> the Darusman Report<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Most recently, Lord Naseby, speaking in the British Parliament on the 12<\/span>th<\/sup><\/span> of October 2017 has disputed this figure which appeared in the Darusman report, while pointing out that most of the war crimes charges flowed from it. He refutes this figure and the claim that civilians were willfully targeted, using dispatches from the British Defense attach\u00e9 Lt. Col Anton Gash stationed in Colombo, to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, together with the UN reports of the relevant period. The figures of civilian casualties cited are very clear, and they don\u2019t exceed 8,000 (eight thousand). The difference between this and the forty thousand figure is a whopping 32,000 human lives. <\/span><\/p>\n

Having presented the evidence, Lord Naseby says \u201cI hope and pray that as a result of this debate, the UK will recognize the truth that no one in the Sri Lankan Government ever wanted to kill Tamil civilians.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

The Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry\u2019s assertion that \u201cengaging in debates and arguments over the number of civilians who may have died at a particular time in the country will not help resolve any issues\u201d <\/i>is specious to say the least.\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cThe number of civilians who may have died\u201d has a critical impact as regards the principle of proportionality<\/b>, which is relevant in arriving at an opinion on whether a State has deliberately used excessive force or used excessive force at all. Surely it is the duty of the Government to debate this issue in the international domain using the evidence presented by Lord Naseby just a few days ago, based on confidential documents even if massively redacted, which were not available in the public domain prior to this point? <\/span><\/p>\n

The Marga Institute\u2019s publication, Narrative Three-The Last Stages of the War in Sri Lanka<\/i>, the principal author of which was the distinguished senior-most retired civil servant Dr. Godfrey Gunatilleke, states that the \u201cestimates of civilian casualties hinge on the estimate of population in the Wanni before the war\u2026\u201d which the publication says were a \u201crough census\u201d carried out by the AGA. Narrative Three<\/i> concludes that \u201cthere are major inconsistencies in these estimates which have been pointed out by experts\u201d.\u00a0 <\/span>It further reveals that these figures have been \u201cchallenged on the ground that they have been prepared under the direction of the LTTE and are highly inflated for the purpose of obtaining rations and assistance under government welfare programmes as well as magnifying the scale of the humanitarian disaster that could occur\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

An extensive study of the casualties in the period January to May 2009 was carried out by an independent UK based group of scientific experts of Sri Lankan lineage, which resulted in a publication called The Numbers Game: Politics of Retributive Justice<\/i>. This report was exhaustively discussed at a conference organized by the Marga Institute and chaired by Dr. Gunatilleke. After examining the available evidence including satellite imagery, the report estimated the total number of civilian casualties from January 2009 to May 2009 at a figure which did not even begin to approach the mythical 40,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama Commission report<\/a> has a section headed \u201cThe Myth of 40,000 Civilians Killed in the Final Phase of the War\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Referring to the Darusman Report which stated that the figure of 40,000 \u201ccannot be ruled out\u201d but needs further investigation, the Paranagama Commission report concludes that \u201cthere was no reliable body of information consistent with other information that 40,000 civilians were killed.\u201d It goes on to call the attempt to spread this unsubstantiated figure a \u201cmischief\u201d and the figure itself a \u201cmyth\u201d: <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis Commission takes the view that in light of what preceded and what followed this totally unsubstantiated estimate of the number of civilians killed, unsourced guess work has solidified into the factual acceptance of a myth\u2026The mischief of this particular allegation of 40,000 civilian deaths becomes clear when there are other sources which give a lower estimate, but not all of the various competing accounts are mentioned in the Darusman Report.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama Commission has also used the UN figure of 7,721 (seven thousand seven hundred and twenty-one) civilian casualties to dispute the 40,000:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe UN Country Team figure of 7,721 civilian deaths (up until 13 May 2009) is mentioned in the Darusman Report but then disputed without any explanation as to how it comes to be that over 30,000 people could thereafter have been killed within five days, if the figure of 40,000 is ever to be correct and accurate\u2026The Darusman Report provides no concrete evidence to support its considerable leap from the UN Country Team\u2019s figure of less than 10,000.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama report quotes an unclassified 2009 US Department of State Report to the US Congress which says:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026 one organization, which did not differentiate between civilians and LTTE cadres, recorded 6,710 people killed and 15,102 people injured between January 20<\/b><\/span>th<\/sup><\/b><\/span> and April 20th 2009. These numbers were presented with a caveat, supported by other sources, that the numbers actually killed and injured are probably higher.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama report goes on to quote the International Crisis Group which said:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cUN agencies, working closely with officials and aid workers located in the conflict zone, documented nearly 7,000 civilians killed from January to April 2009. Those who compiled these internal numbers deemed them reliable to the extent they reflected actual conflict deaths but maintain it was a work in progress and incomplete.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama report also quotes Reuters which reports just over 6,000 killed: <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSome three weeks before the war ended, Reuters reported as follows: \u2018A U.N. working document, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, says 6,432 civilians have been killed and 13,946 wounded in fighting since the end of January\u2019.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore it quotes Amnesty International which estimates that \u201c\u2026derived independently from eyewitness testimony and information from aid workers, are that at least 10,000 civilians were killed.\u201d<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Considering that there are all these numbers from varied sources, apart from the 40,000 in the Darusman Report, which itself doesn’t suggest it as a final figure, one would think that any new evidence that helps to arrive at the truth is certainly worthy of debate and engagement, especially at the UN Human Rights Council. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Paranagama Commission report was produced well before UNHRC Resolution 30\/1 was co-sponsored. However it was presented to Parliament by the Prime Minister only after Resolution 30\/1 had been adopted<\/i>, preventing its useful insights from being presented to the Human Rights Council in time. It is doubtful whether the detailed analyses contained in it have been used as yet by the Government to counter some of the inaccuracies circulating in the international arena regarding the last stages of the war. <\/span><\/p>\n

Given his oft-repeated public stand, it is difficult to believe that President Sirisena is of the view that the numbers of civilian deaths should not be debated in the Council in Geneva despite Lord Naseby\u2019s new and credible information (in that it comes from external i.e. non-Sri Lankan sources uninvolved in the conflict), when numerous civil society groups continue to insist at every UNHRC session that large numbers of civilians were deliberately targeted and killed, some even claiming genocide. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Foreign Ministry seems to have decided not use this information internationally until the government gets around to the \u201c100 Day Programme (point 93)\u201d and its \u201cown set of national proposals for a transitional justice process\u201d is eventually set up and gets going. <\/span><\/p>\n

Is it the view of Foreign Minister Marapana and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Vasantha Senanayaka, that if there\u2019s the slightest chance of bringing new evidence before the international community to assist it in arriving at the truth amidst a barrage of false propaganda against this country internationally, that they should refrain from doing so because the considered view of the Foreign Ministry is that it would not help \u201cin any meaningful way, locally\u201d?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is fervently hoped that the Minister and the State Minister are able to figure out that a \u201cnational process\u201d and active engagement with the international community are not mutually exclusive, and that it is the duty of the government to undertake both. This is especially so since Lord Naseby has appealed to the UK Government that it \u201cmust now get the UN and the UNHCR in Geneva to accept a civilian casualty level of 7,000 to 8,000, not 40,000.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

While the national process is the more important, it is the Foreign Ministry\u2019s responsibility to present Sri Lanka\u2019s case credibly to the international community. It may lead to more than just a few individuals feeling good about it.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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