{"id":204926,"date":"2019-09-21T17:00:33","date_gmt":"2019-09-21T11:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=204926"},"modified":"2019-09-24T22:32:54","modified_gmt":"2019-09-24T17:02:54","slug":"sajith-may-electorally-benefit-from-ranils-antics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/sajith-may-electorally-benefit-from-ranils-antics\/","title":{"rendered":"Sajith May Electorally\u00a0Benefit From Ranil\u2019s Antics"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0<\/b>Amrit Muttukumaru<\/a> –<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Amrit Muttukumaru<\/p><\/div>\n

The antics of virtual UNP leader for life and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe<\/span><\/strong><\/a> although appearing to deal a body blow to the presidential electoral prospects of UNP deputy leader Sajith Premadasa<\/span><\/strong><\/a>, could be a blessing in disguise for Sajith if wisely<\/b> handled by him and his backers. The reasons for this possibility include:<\/p>\n

1) Dyed in the wool UNPers would realize that the best hope<\/b> for a UNP Executive President is Sajith Premadasa who is the only candidate at present who could pose a real threat<\/b> to the frontrunner \u2013 former Defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa<\/span><\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span>Gotabaya is fielded by the recently constituted Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) due to the constitutional inability of his charismatic elder brother former President Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/span><\/strong><\/a> to be a candidate.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2) Gotabaya by a long shot lacks the charisma, oratorical skills and stage presence of MR. Although Sajith too is not too great in these attributes, it could be said that he has a clear advantage over GR in these aspects.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

3) There is the real possibility that the greatly reduced UNP electoral base and those who have abandoned the party due to the lackluster\u00a0\u2018leadership\u2019 of Ranil will get \u2018fired up\u2019<\/b> by a Sajith presidential candidature and those abandoning the party returning to the fold.<\/p>\n

4) The more UNP leader Ranil behaves in a manner inimical<\/b> to rational thinking to sidetrack <\/b>Sajith by the brute force of the powers vested in him\u00a0 <\/span>in the UNP constitution in his capacity as \u2018leader\u2019, more the likelihood that Sajith will get traction in the country on a \u2018sympathetic\u2019 wave even \u2018outside\u2019 the UNP fraternity. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

5) There is the real possibility that a Sajith candidature may hasten the electoral \u2018fatigue\u2019 of the Rajapaksa \u2018brand\u2019 among the majority Sinhala Buddhists due to factors which include (i) MR not being the candidate (ii) GR in relation to MR being a \u2018dull\u2019 candidate (iii) some apprehension due to the perceived \u2018violent\u2019 disposition and arrogance of GR (iv) the extravagance displayed at Namal\u2019s recent wedding receptions (v) Sajith\u2019s far superior \u2018pro poor\u2019<\/b> image.<\/p>\n

6) Ranil\u2019s deplorable antics are giving Sajith ample \u2018free\u2019 media coverage which may to some extent endear him to the voters who may have Rajapaksa \u2018fatigue\u2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

7) Even if Sajith does not address minority concerns, the chances are that those who will vote from this category will support him instead of Gotabaya. The catholic vote base in the context of the Easter Sunday carnage is up for grabs. The ground reality is that of the 30% non-Sinhala Buddhist category, 7% are Christian of which 6% are Roman Catholics.<\/p>\n

8) Even if Ranil through the brute force of the powers vested in him as leader by the UNP constitution makes an attempt to prevent Sajith from being nominated as the UNP presidential candidate, the likelihood is that either the powerful \u2018working committee\u2019 with his dwindling supporters will \u2018ditch him\u2019 or Sajith will contest from an \u2018alternate\u2019 entity while retaining the core of the UNP party hierarchy and voter base.<\/b><\/p>\n

Gotabaya\u2019s Strengths<\/b><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

The most potent strength of Gotabaya Rajapaksa among the majority 70% Sinhala Buddhists is his signal contribution as Defense Secretary to defeat (albeit controversially) the armed conflict with the LTTE. Tamil grievances still remain largely unaddressed.<\/p>\n

He is also perceived as a no-nonsense disciplinarian who gets things done such as the perception of the beautification of the city of Colombo. The jury\u00a0is\u00a0out on whether it is superficial or not.<\/p>\n

He being the brother of the popular and charismatic former President Mahinda Rajapaksa gives him an electoral advantage. On the flip side there is belief in some circles that perceived Rajapaksa \u2018family politics\u2019 with MR\u2019s son Namal waiting in the wings with high political ambition could be a \u2018spoiler\u2019 for GR.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Here too the jury\u00a0is\u00a0out on whether the much vaunted \u2018model village\u2019 housing schemes promoted by Sajith Premadasa are sustainable and whether they create a \u2018dependency\u2019 culture?\u00a0 <\/span>Although the \u2018sins of the fathers\u2019 should not be \u2018visited upon the sons\u2019, controversies which include extra judicial\u00a0killings such as that of Richard de Zoysa under the Ranasinghe Premadasa presidency should remind his son Sajith if elected of the immense power and responsibilities of the Executive President even in the Post-19th<\/sup> Amendment scenario.<\/p>\n

Sajith Premadasa is the perfect foil to Gotabaya Rajapaksa. If Sajith is able to overcome the impediments of not being the UNP nominee by building on and communicating<\/b> his strengths <\/b>which include (i) perception that he is not the preferred choice of the much derided<\/b> Ranil Wickremesinghe and his coterie of supporters (ii) perception that he has a far greater pro-poor image (iii) perception that on the yardstick of the country\u2019s widespread political corruption and abuse of power he stands relatively tall (iv) perception that he does not personally have a violence prone background (v) his people friendly image devoid of arrogance in spite of being the son of a President (vi) electoral \u2018fatigue\u2019 of the Rajapaksa \u2018brand\u2019 particularly since MR is ineligible to contest.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is unsavory speculation as to why UNP leader \/ PM Ranil Wickremesinghe and Parliament\u2019s Speaker Karu Jayasuriya<\/span><\/strong><\/a> who do not have a \u2018snowball’s chance in hell\u2019\u00a0(particularly Ranil) in defeating Gotabaya Rajapaksa are toying with the idea of being the UNP\u2019s Presidential candidate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The bottom line for the country is that irrespective of who becomes Executive President, unless there is a highly unlikely miracle, the prognosis<\/b> for the country is dire<\/b> both socially and economically. None of the candidates – Gotabaya, Sajith or other known aspirants have presented a credible plan of action which even if presented would be implemented. For example, although it is obvious to everyone that a sine qua non for any progress is (i) all citizens being treated equally<\/b> (ii) the rule of law having no exceptions<\/b>, none of the aspirants will \u2018bite the bullet\u2019 even on these basic parameters. Do we have a selective<\/b> application of the \u2018rule of law\u2019? To what extent is the \u2018rule of law\u2019 being applied even to Presidential candidates? I sadly<\/b> rest my case on the prognosis<\/b> for the country.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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