{"id":211012,"date":"2020-06-04T10:58:25","date_gmt":"2020-06-04T05:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=211012"},"modified":"2020-06-08T20:51:19","modified_gmt":"2020-06-08T15:21:19","slug":"sri-lanka-taiwan-the-two-unsinkable-aircraft-carriers-of-the-sino-american-geopolitics-in-the-indo-pacific-theater","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/sri-lanka-taiwan-the-two-unsinkable-aircraft-carriers-of-the-sino-american-geopolitics-in-the-indo-pacific-theater\/","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lanka & Taiwan: The Two Unsinkable Aircraft Carriers Of The Sino-American Geopolitics In The Indo-Pacific Theater"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Patric Mendis<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Prof. Patrick Mendis<\/p><\/div>\n

The deadly coronavirus will present a novel strategic landscape for China and the United States to begin the world anew. During this extraordinary covid-19 crisis, President Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have neither put aside their longstanding geopolitical ambitions nor their \u201ccore\u201d interests abroad.[1]<\/sup>\u00a0The crisis has revealed the underlying priorities of the CCP, and President Xi wasted no time taking advantage of the epidemic by engaging in the two island nations of Sri Lanka and Taiwan.[2]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Likewise, both islands have\u00a0become increasingly more vital to American foreign policy objectives, including freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region, democratic governance, and regional peace and prosperity. President Donald Trump quietly\u00a0signed\u00a0the new Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI<\/a>)\u00a0Act on March 26, 2020.[3]<\/sup>\u00a0The legislation would certainly enhance mutual confidence and optimism in US-Taiwan relations; however, the Trump State Department\u2019s ability to implement and adjust foreign assistance with other countries would require significant funding and need to compete with the CCP\u2019s financial assistance to those countries. With Sri Lanka, the Trump administration has thus far unsuccessfully pushed for signing the Millennium Challenge Compact (MCC) of $480 million and the renewal of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).[4]<\/sup>\u00a0The MCC is part of the American foreign assistance program established by the Millennium Challenge Corporation in 2004\u2013separate from the State Department and the US Agency for International Development. SOFA, meanwhile, is a bilaterally agreed upon framework under which deployed American military personnel would operate in Sri Lanka and that details how the country\u2019s domestic laws would apply to them. Nevertheless, the Pentagon has devised Washington\u2019s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) by combining the Indian and Pacific Oceans into a single military theater. The IPS addresses the rise of China and counters its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while strengthening US relations with Colombo and Taipei.<\/p>\n

Since the Trump administration designated China a \u201cstrategic competitor,\u201d Sri Lanka and Taiwan have increasingly become plausible geopolitical flashpoints in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.[5]<\/sup>\u00a0Given the Trump administration\u2019s pre-coronavirus budget priorities, however, the resource allocation for IPS rings somewhat hollow in responding to the fundamental concerns of China\u2019s growing influence over Sri Lanka and Taiwan. While General Douglas MacArthur\u00a0memorably referred to the latter as an \u201cunsinkable aircraft carrier,\u201d the description aptly characterizes both Sri Lanka and Taiwan.\u00a0<\/sup>[6],<\/sup>[7]<\/p>\n

Words vs. Deeds<\/b><\/p>\n

When the pathogen began to multiply rapidly beyond China and spread to the United States and other countries, Beijing tried to block Taiwan\u2019s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as the global community collectively started to fight against the epidemic.[8]<\/sup>\u00a0In response, the United States lobbied forcefully in favor of Taiwanese participation at these UN agencies, allowing Taiwanese health experts to have a voice at the WHO forum.[9]<\/sup>\u00a0To distract from negative press coverage and to divert attention away from their mistakes handling the outbreak, Beijing began to conduct war-games in the Taiwan Strait in February and promoted a conspiracy theory in March 2020 that claimed the US military brought the pandemic to Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province.[10]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[11]<\/sup>\u00a0These were widely perceived as provocations, prompting the United States to send reconnaissance aircraft through the Strait towards the Philippines and the South China Sea while President Trump publicly began to refer to the coronavirus as the \u201cChina virus.\u201d\u00a0<\/sup>[12]<\/sup>,[13]<\/sup><\/p>\n

While visiting Sri Lanka in mid-January, Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced the importance of the island to China\u2019s BRI and foreign policy and security interests. The foreign minister said that China \u201cwill not allow any outside influences to interfere\u201d on the island\u2019s internal affairs.[14]<\/sup>\u00a0When Minister Wang met with the newly elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the president expressed that he was an \u201cadmirer of President Xi Jinping\u201d and \u201cfollowed his speeches and statements closely.\u201d[15]<\/sup>\u00a0Reiterating that China is a \u201creliable\u201d friend and a \u201cstrategic partner,\u201d the foreign minister Wang assured the President that \u201cChina will continue to stand by Sri Lanka\u2019s interests.\u201d[16]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Immediately after Minister Wang\u2019s visit, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Alice Wells and Senior Director Lisa Curtis of the National Security Council arrived in Colombo to deliver a letter from President Donald Trump to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.[17]<\/sup>\u00a0Ambassador Wells told Rajapaksa and his brother Mahinda (the current prime minister and former president from 2005-15) that \u201ca wider and safer Indo-Pacific region\u201d is a mutual interest of theirs and that strengthening \u201cmilitary-to-military\u00a0engagements\u201d and expanding trade relations are equally beneficial to both countries.[18]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Sri Lanka renewed its Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with the United States for another ten years in 2017 during the pro-American Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration (2015-19), which was initially signed by then-Defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa during his brother\u2019s presidency. Since August 2018, Washington has been trying to revise and reinstate the SOFA agreement that was first secured in 1995, when Mahinda Rajapaksa\u2019s party was also in power. A pro-China administration returning to power in Colombo gives the Trump White House some reason to worry about the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region, as China has already offered Sri Lanka a 10-year $500 million loan in March to mitigate the financial impact of covid-19.[19]<\/sup><\/p>\n

In his letter, President Trump underscored the US\u00a0government\u2019s\u00a0\u201ccommitment and interest in furthering and depending [its] partnership\u201d with Sri Lanka.[20]<\/sup>\u00a0The message was clear: After years of neglect and\u00a0reduced\u00a0foreign assistance,\u00a0the United States\u00a0has a renewed interest\u00a0in Sri Lanka.[21]<\/sup>\u00a0Washington\u00a0has increased its urgency with subtle threats and pressure to sign the $480 million\u00a0MCC compact and to replace its revised SOFA agreement to align the island with America\u2019s grand strategy to reduce Chinese influence.[22]<\/sup>\u00a0After returning to Washington, Ambassador Wells remarked that \u201cSri\u00a0Lanka occupies some very important\u00a0real estate<\/i>\u00a0[emphasis added] in the Indo-Pacific region, and it is a country of increasing strategic importance in the Indian Ocean region\u201d for the United States. These statements tacitly reveal Washington\u2019s otherwise hidden reasoning on a key part of its Indo-Pacific policy.[23]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Two Unsinkable Aircraft Carriers<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The degree of \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d these Island nations wield will determine their ability to deal with the BRI and IPS as independent countries. The BRI is a comprehensive and transformative strategy to revive the ancient Chinese civilization that existed before European colonization, combining the cosmopolitan polity of the Tang Dynasty (618-907) and the maritime supremacy of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644).[24]<\/sup>\u00a0A belated response to BRI, the American-led IPS is a revised concept initiated by Japan and India to which Washington later joined. In joining the IPS, the US strengthened its military component while adding economic elements like the MCC and the Blue Dot Network (BDN).[25]<\/sup>\u00a0The BDN is a US-led multi-stakeholder initiative to bring together governments, the private sector, and civil society to certify development projects that uphold global infrastructure principles, according to the US State Department.[26]<\/sup><\/p>\n

The political history and the economic geography of these two island nations have long been intertwined with the national security interests and foreign policy goals of the United States. In his \u201cChinese Memorandum\u201d to the War Department in 1883, General Arthur MacArthur \u2013 the military governor of the Philippines \u2013 presented a prescient study of Asia. Advocating American economic expansion to remedy the predicaments of overproduction, General MacArthur wrote that\u00a0\u201cwe cannot attain our natural growth, or even exist as a commanding and progressive nationality, unless we secure and maintain the soverignty [sic<\/i>] of the Pacific.\u201d[27]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Nearly 70 years later, in 1950 his son General Douglas MacArthur \u2013 the supreme commander of allied powers in Japan \u2013\u00a0sent\u00a0a now-declassified top secret \u201cMemorandum on Formosa\u201d to Washington.[28]<\/sup>\u00a0To put the United States in an offensive posture to contain the spread of communism, MacArthur insists that the Truman White House should consider the strategically located Taiwan as a counterbalance to the Soviet and Chinese communists.\u00a0He\u00a0reasons\u00a0that \u201cFormosa in the hands of the Communists can be compared to an unsinkable aircraft carrier and submarine tender.\u201d If the island, he continues, \u201cshould be acquired by the Chinese Communists,\u201d the military \u201cbases thereon made available to the USSR\u201d could serve as an offensive strategy to \u201ccheckmate counteroffensive operations by United States Forces based on Okinawa and the Philippines.\u201d\u00a0<\/sup>[29]<\/sup>\u00a0The supreme commander then argues that Taiwan should instead be an unsinkable aircraft carrier\u00a0for the United States to project American power and to preserve American national interests in the Pacific.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the United States has its own\u00a0\u201cunsinkable aircraft carrier\u201d on the more secretive but strategic 17-square-mile\u00a0Diego Garcia\u00a0in the middle of the Indian Ocean\u2014just 1,200 miles from Sri Lanka.[30]<\/sup>\u00a0The horseshoe-shaped atoll had been used for American wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and other counteroffensive operations elsewhere in the Horn of Africa, the Persian Gulf, and the Pacific.\u00a0The United States\u00a0renewed\u00a0the lease of the charted\u00a0real estate (from the British in 1966) for another 20 years in 2016.[31]<\/sup>\u00a0The naval base is home to some 5,000 service-members and contractors for military and intelligence operations.\u00a0The Diego Garcia facility is also assigned as a backup landing site for NASA space missions; it is a strategically vital refueling station for the US Navy and Air Force patrols from West Africa to the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

The Cost of Guns and Butter<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Washington\u00a0maintains\u00a0nearly 800 military bases in more than 70 countries and territories, with nearly 200,000 active-duty personnel deployed\u00a0across 177 countries.\u00a0<\/sup>[32]<\/sup>,[33]<\/sup>,[34]<\/sup>\u00a0For unrestricted global operations, the United States has\u00a0signed\u00a0Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreements\u00a0<\/i>(ACSA) and\u00a0Status of Forces Agreements\u00a0<\/i>(SOFA)\u00a0with over 100 countries.\u00a0Citing President Donald Trump\u2019s national defense strategy, former Secretary of Defense James Mattis declared in 2018 that \u201cthe\u00a0United States has enjoyed uncontested or dominant superiority in every operating domain. We could generally deploy our forces when we wanted, assemble them where we wanted, and operate how we wanted.\u201d Today, however, every\u00a0domain is contested in \u201cair, land, sea, space, and cyberspace\u201d by China.[35]<\/sup><\/p>\n

With nearly $1 trillion in defense expenditure proposed in the 2021 federal budget, General\u00a0Arthur McArthur\u2019s vision of the \u201ccommanding\u201d height of the American military may have now come to a crossroads. In his famous 1961 \u201cmilitary-industrial complex\u201d speech, President Dwight Eisenhower\u00a0warned\u00a0of the increasing danger of a militarized economy to the republic.[36]<\/sup>\u00a0For President Trump\u2019s Indo-Pacific economic vision, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced in 2018 that he could only\u00a0find\u00a0$113 million for new investments \u201cto expand economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific\u201d to counterbalance China.[37]<\/sup><\/p>\n

In the proposed 2021 budget, Trump\u2019s Office of Management and Budget has allocated\u00a0more than $2 billion to support the Indo-Pacific defense strategy\u00a0while cutting the international development assistance budget by 21 percent.[38]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[39]<\/sup>\u00a0The increasing defense expenditure comes with a widening federal budget deficit of over $1 trillion, which was prior to the\u00a0signing\u00a0of the coronavirus stimulus package of over $2.2 trillion.[40]<\/sup>\u00a0With the 2018 tax cut, the Trump administration has now been forced to reduce Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security\u00a0spending\u00a0by a total of $756 billion as well as limit the funds for infrastructure development\u00a0(in road, bridges, and airports)\u00a0and other initiatives like investment in education, science, and technology.[41]<\/sup><\/p>\n

In contrast to Washington, Beijing has deliberately maintained its long-term investment strategy initiative with over $1 trillion in BRI development projects.[42]<\/sup>\u00a0The US government has\u00a0spent\u00a0$6.4 trillion on the wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq\u2014including interest payments on direct war borrowing.\u00a0<\/sup>[43]<\/sup>\u00a0For the federal government debt to China, Japan, and other countries, Washington is obligated to\u00a0pay\u00a0the annual interest payments of more than $900 billion.[44]<\/sup>Based on the 2010 estimates of the Congressional Budget\u00a0Office data, Congressman Randy Forbes, chairman of the Congressional China Caucus, calculated\u00a0that\u00a0\u201ceach day our nation pays communist China $73.9 million in interest on our\u00a0debt.\u201d[45]<\/sup>\u00a0It added up to a total of over $26.9 billion a year. By January 2020, China\u00a0owned\u00a0over $1.1 trillion of American Treasury securities.[46]<\/sup><\/p>\n

In the \u201cnew era\u201d of China\u2019s unprecedented rise as a civilization-state, the mammoth BRI investment is\u00a0estimated to incorporate between $1 trillion and $8 trillion in infrastructure development projects, connecting more than 100 countries\u00a0across Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania through trade and commerce.[47]<\/sup>\u00a0With 276 embassies and diplomatic posts, China now has\u00a0more\u00a0than the United States, focusing mainly on commercial diplomacy.[48]<\/sup>\u00a0In the interim, the Trump administration has reduced the vitality of diplomatic missions abroad by\u00a0cutting\u00a0the budget and kept a large number of senior posts\u00a0unfilled\u00a0in the Department of State.\u00a0<\/sup>[49]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[50]<\/sup>\u00a0As a result, foreign policy and diplomatic responsibilities are increasingly carried out via the Department of Defense, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, China has already\u00a0become\u00a0the largest economy in the world in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), a measurement used by the CIA and IMF for comparing national economies.[51]<\/sup>\u00a0The American rival is also the largest net exporter and global lender.[52]<\/sup>\u00a0China\u2019s \u201coverall investments in research and development are expected to surpass those of the United States within 10 years,\u201d according to\u00a0Dr. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and the current chairman of the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.[53]<\/sup>\u00a0Schmidt has further\u00a0written\u00a0that \u201cAI is essential to growing our economy and protecting our security.\u201d[54]<\/sup>\u00a0Quoting the\u00a0Global AI Index\u00a0of more than 100 metrics, he\u00a0warned that China will lead the world in five to 10 years and\u00a0cited\u00a0that China has \u201calmost twice as many supercomputers and about 15 times as many deployed 5G base stations as the United States.\u201d\u00a0<\/sup>[55]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[56]<\/sup>\u00a0According to Professor Graham Allison of Harvard University, China is\u00a0leading\u00a0the United States in all 25 indicators of economic performance except in military superiority.[57]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Lasting Force for Good<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Adhering to General Arthur MacArthur\u2019s military-led \u201cself-preservation doctrine,\u201d the United States still seeks to define national and security interests through the lens of defense strategies of the past. By contrast, however, Beijing is filtering its interests in historical and economic lens, selectively modeling the BRI after China\u2019s Tang and Ming Dynasties in the forms of the New Silk Road (i.e., the component of the Belt) and the Maritime Silk Road (the sea route, that is ironically called \u201cthe Road\u201d).[58]<\/sup>\u00a0The BRI is now being rebranded as the Health Silk Road by exporting medical equipment and health professionals to BRI countries in the midst of Covid-19 global pandemic while still promoting the Digital Silk Road with the new battlefield 5G and artificial intelligence technologies of Huawei, ZTE, and other companies.[59]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[60]<\/sup>With these companies and state-owned enterprises, China has achieved impressive domestic infrastructure developments in high-speed railways connecting highly sophisticated urban centers and modern airports and harbors as well as developed space exploration projects. Beijing has now comprehensively positioned itself to expand its diplomatic influence and economic \u201csharp power\u201d globally\u2014increasingly now with American friends and allies, especially from the NATO countries.<\/p>\n

In the \u201cnew era\u201d of rising Chinese dominance in Asia, even the two democratic island-nations of Sri Lanka and Taiwan are being challenged with the choices of the past. For the future, they are presented with Chinese economic opportunities and American security assurances. For example, China has invested an estimated $11 billion in Sri Lanka.[61]<\/sup>\u00a0It has employed thousands of local workers and built a giant harbor in Hambantota, completed the Lotus Telecommunication Tower in Colombo, finished the Nelum Pokuna National Theater, and donated a kidney hospital in Polonnaruwa.[62]<\/sup>\u00a0China is still constructing an artificial island for the Colombo Port City and building a network of the expressway.[63]<\/sup><\/p>\n

For the United States, Sri Lanka could reportedly be an alternative to the leased real estate of Diego Garcia (which will expire in 2036 unless its lease is renewed with the British). In this grand scheme of finding a long-term basing arrangement, Washington reasons that Sri Lanka occupies \u201csome very important real estate\u201d that could become the cornerstone of the IPS and its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) policy.[64]<\/sup>\u00a0Closer to Indian Ocean rim countries and located on major shipping lanes, Sri Lanka would be a less expensive option to sustain the supremacy of American power than is the distant Diego Garcia. Unlike the stated goal of BRI connectivity for international commerce, the FOIP strategy seeks to improve \u201cthe freedom of navigation\u201d between the Indian and Pacific Oceans through strategic and military\u00a0collaboration with Australia, India, and Japan\u2014the Quadrilateral Dialogue (i.e., the Quad).\u00a0Thus, the enforcement ofthe SOFA,\u00a0the\u00a0ACSA, and the MCC are integral elements for the continuation of the\u00a0American self-preservation project in Sri Lanka and the\u00a0preservation of the post-WWII liberal international system.<\/p>\n

Expressing concerns over the Chinese \u201cdebt trap\u201d in Sri Lanka and recognizing the growing Chinese influence on sovereign governance, Washington has now begun to advocate the urgency of signing the SOFA and MCC agreements with the pro-Beijing Rajapaksa administration.[65]<\/sup>\u00a0Departing from a policy of a friendlier approach to the previous pro-American Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government (2015-19), the State Department has\u00a0signaled\u00a0an increasingly difficult road for the Colombo administration.[66]<\/sup>\u00a0Washington has, for example, recently\u00a0announced\u00a0a travel ban on\u00a0former\u00a0General Shavendra Silva, who was accused of human rights violations against the separatist Tamil Tigers during the Eelam War that ended in May 2009.[67]<\/sup>\u00a0In the past five years, Washington has kept a softer diplomatic approach to human rights and transitional justice for the minority Tamil people at the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC).<\/p>\n

The Rajapaksa administration is heavily staffed by former and current military personnel, including General Silva as the\u00a0chief of staff\u00a0of the Sri Lankan Army.[68]<\/sup>\u00a0To fulfill his campaign promise, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa<\/span><\/a> has given his priority to national security and public safety after the 2019 Easter Sunday\u00a0suicide-bombings\u00a0of churches and luxury hotels in Colombo that killed more than 350 Sri Lankans and foreign tourists.[69]<\/sup>\u00a0For economic development and public debt management, Rajapaksa needs the sources of income and investment from China, India, Japan, and the United States. Pursuing a combined policy of reward and punishment, the Trump administration has suddenly decided to coerce Sri Lanka to align with Washington. Partnering with Australia, India, and Japan, the American\u00a0IPS is designed to\u00a0counter \u201cthe Chinese Malign influence\u201d and champion \u201csecurity, democracy, and economic growth for a free and open Indo-Pacific,\u201d according to the US State Department.[70]<\/sup>\u00a0Sri Lanka is often recalibrating and finding effective ways to play China and the US against each other amidst its shrinking space for \u201cstrategic autonomy,\u201d as illustrated by recent withdrawal of its war crimes investigation of the landmark UNHRC resolution of 30\/1 in 2015.[71]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Reliance and Alliance\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

In the case of Taiwan, President Trump\u2019s self-preservation strategy is derived from the extension of the perennial American military-industrial complex. Similar to his\u00a0$110 billion arms sales to Saudi Arabia, Trump\u00a0signed\u00a0an $8 billion deal of military hardware sales and training personnel to Taiwan in August 2019,\u00a0solidifying American reliance, and then an informal alliance with Washington.[72]<\/sup>\u00a0The goal of the deal was first to\u00a0safeguard the island and counterbalance China\u2019s increasing military posture, and second, to\u00a0develop\u00a0\u201cdomestic training for jets, submarines, and other weapons technology\u201d arriving from the United States.[73]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Indeed, the Trump administration had previously\u00a0authorized\u00a0the $2 billion sale of military weapons to Taiwan in 2019.[74]<\/sup>\u00a0It was in direct response to President Xi Jinping\u2019s\u00a0first significant declaration in January 2019 in which he\u00a0warned \u201cthe contested island\u00a0of democracy\u201d\u00a0that \u201cunification must be the ultimate goal\u201d of China, but a \u201cfull independence\u201d for\u00a0the wayward province\u00a0\u201ccould be met by armed force.\u201d[75]<\/sup>\u00a0Challenging President Xi\u2019s proposed \u201cone country, two systems\u201d formula \u2013 similar to Hong Kong and Macau \u2013 the newly re-elected President Tsai Ing-wen again rejected Beijing\u2019s unification blueprint.[76]<\/sup>,<\/sup>[77]<\/sup>\u00a0She then re-asserted that Taiwan would continue to pursue a free and democratic way of life. During the violent Hong Kong protests in 2019, Tsai openly supported the cause for political rights and independence for Hongkongers and portrayed China as inimical to democratic freedoms and the sovereignty of Taiwanese people. Like Hongkongers, the 24 million people of Taiwan have increasingly identified themselves as Taiwanese, who migrated mostly from the nearest coastal Fujian province of China.[78]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Even after the signing of phase one of the Sino-American trade deal in January 2020, Washington has continued to maintain its active military and\u00a0subtle diplomatic support for Taipei\u2014including the more frequent movements of American aircraft and ships in the Taiwan Strait. With unanimous bipartisan congressional endorsement, President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act of 2018 that\u00a0\u201cshould encourage visits between officials from the United States and Taiwan at all levels.\u201d[79]<\/sup>\u00a0It is a milestone since passing the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. In the Taiwan Relations Act, released over 40 years ago, Jimmy Carter recognized the government of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC), acknowledging the \u201cone China policy\u201d for which Taiwan (i.e., the Republic of China, ROC) is part of the mainland. This 2018 legislation and the TAIPEI Act established a deliberate \u201cambiguity\u201d in the evolving American foreign policy of unofficial and informal diplomatic relations between the two countries.<\/p>\n

The United States has carefully maintained its \u201cambiguity\u201d \u2013 as opposed to a strategic \u201cclarity\u201d \u2013 towards Taiwan with the hope that China would be less likely to invade Taiwan. A policy of absolute \u201cclarity\u201d would essentially provoke Chinese hostility and also challenge American legitimacy to involve itself in cross-strait relations. Moreover, a system of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d would further validate the American military presence in the Pacific to protect Taiwan and other defense treaty-allies like Japan and South Korea in spite of the TAIPEI Act of 2020.[80]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Signs of the Tipping Points<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The proposed Trump budget has incentives for allies and friends to buy more weapons to build their militaries around US systems. This self-preservation of the American republic further highlights evolving defense arrangements. Trump\u2019s national security strategy\u2014forcing a tradeoff with domestic economic and social development priorities\u2014would forestall addressing national infrastructure development needs and repayment of national debts to China and other countries.<\/p>\n

To develop his IPS, the Trump White House has radically expanded and revised President Barack Obama\u2019s \u201cAsia-Pacific rebalancing strategy.\u201d The Obama strategy was focused more on economic, trade, and investment components embedded in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)\u2013a coordinated effort\u00a0with eleven other countries to challenge China\u2019s rise and to ensure that the United States lead the way on \u201cglobal trade rules.\u201d[81]<\/sup>\u00a0The collective TPP strategy also emphasized the use of commercial diplomacy to uphold higher environmental and labor standards that would eventually benefit the ordinary people in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n

With the creation of an Indo-Pacific Command, the Department of Defense is the lead agency to promote\u00a0the Quad\u00a0framework with Australia, India, and Japan. Each of these Quad partners has its own strategic and economic interests that are not necessarily aligned with the \u201cAmerica First\u201d geopolitics of the military containment of China and its BRI investment projects. China has several trade agreements with Australia and other Asian countries while pursuing bilateral and trilateral trade pacts with South Korea and Japan, the two critical American treaty allies in Asia. Beijing has also invested in BRI projects with American partner-countries and friends in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration is behind as key European allies and members of the exclusive Five Eyes intelligence alliance begin to doubt Washington\u2019s leadership on key issues. Several are considering allowing \u201cthe construction of next generation 5G networks by the Chinese technology company Huawei\u201d\u2013the world leader in 5G implementation.[82]<\/sup>\u00a0For these countries, fulfilling their economic needs has so far come first; thus, China\u2019s commercial diplomacy of over $1 trillion in BRI projects speaks louder for their national aspirations and development requirements than American military solutions to every interlocking Sino-American issue. While praising China (and Russia), for example, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines in February 2020 decided to terminate the 22-year Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States.[83]<\/sup>\u00a0China has so far pledged $9 billion in infrastructure investment in the Philippines, including the $4.3 billion expansion and upgrade of the road and railway networks around Metro Manila, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. Beijing and Manila have inked roughly $300 million loan agreements to fund water and irrigation projects, equivalent to 0.1% of GDP.[84]<\/sup>\u00a0The outcome has signaled a severe threat to the Philippine-US 69-year military alliance that has long been seen as essential to countering the rise of China and its growing dominance over the South China Sea.[85]<\/sup><\/p>\n

America Needs Rearview Mirrors<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Like the Philippines, Taiwan and Sri Lanka naturally desire to find strategic autonomy. The founding ideals of the United States, as embedded within the Declaration of Independence, continue to provide needed Jeffersonian inspiration and to galvanize these countries struggles for democratic values and self-government. Even for Deng Xiaoping of China, the Hamiltonian approach to economic progress and centralized governance was the guiding model for his continued trade liberalization and open economic policy.[86]<\/sup>\u00a0Yet the United States has seemingly departed from its own Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian framework and pursued failed military solutions to every conflict from Vietnam to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Given its forgotten history and the lessons not learned, the United States is not likely to achieve a winnable military confrontation with an increasingly powerful China either in Sri Lanka or Taiwan.[87]<\/sup>\u00a0Evaluating the 2018 national defense strategy for US Congress, the National Defense Strategy Commission\u00a0concluded\u00a0that \u201cif the United States had to fight . . . China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat.\u201d[88]<\/sup>\u00a0Similarly, former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense David Ochmanek\u00a0shared\u00a0a public summary of the results of \u201cclassified\u201d war-games in March 2019.[89]<\/sup>\u00a0Ochmanek\u00a0summarized,\u00a0\u201cwhen we fight Russia and China, [America] gets its ass handed to it.\u201d[90]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Moreover,\u00a0Beijing seems to have steadily improved \u201cmilitary capabilities,\u201d which includes \u201cits ability to strike aircraft carriers\u201d of the United States.[91]<\/sup>\u00a0In a series of war-game scenarios over Taiwan or the South China Sea,\u00a0in 18 of the last 18 Pentagon war-games involving China in the Taiwan Strait, the US reportedly lost.[92]<\/sup>\u00a0Of course, these could be somewhat misleading; the domino effects of unforeseen events in real wars would always be challenging to predict\u2014like the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in the former Yugoslavia for which America was humiliated for its \u201cprecise weaponry\u201d and needed to compensate and apologize.[93]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Unlike the super-power competition between the former Soviet Union and the United States, China is a thriving civilization-state with a greater sense of national pride and perennial control. In contrast to the former Soviet Union, China has almost $3 trillion in currency reserves with a vast network of trading partnerships in Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean Basin\u2014America\u2019s backyard.[94]<\/sup>\u00a0With America\u2019s concurrent global war on terror and intractable wars and conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, the over-militarization of US foreign policy has increasingly become a burden to its national progress. It is also counterproductive to the enduring ideas of democratic freedoms that the Trump administration pretends to champion when it comes to Saudi Arabia and human rights violations.[95]<\/sup><\/p>\n

For Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian ideas to flourish, the United States does not need a grand strategy.[96]<\/sup>\u00a0It requires creativity and imagination to break away from the conditioned mindset of the past, especially to nurture private enterprises and facilitate free people to conduct their affairs with strategic autonomy in Taiwan and Sri Lanka. To strengthen American self-preservation, the United States must rediscover the superiority of diplomatic and foreign development assistance programs and global engagement\u2014not the prevalence of military tools, subjecting other countries to American might. John Quincy Adams advocated a soft power strategy over the military disposition of the nation.\u00a0He\u00a0said\u00a0in 1821 that\u00a0the United States \u201cgoes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will recommend the general cause, by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example.\u201d[97]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Indeed, the price of \u201cAmerica First\u201d militarized foreign policy is costly.\u00a0To boost America\u2019s economic edge against China, the Trump administration and Congress passed the\u00a0Better Utilization of Investment Leading\u00a0to Development (BUILD) Act of 2018.[98]<\/sup>\u00a0The Build Act created a new US International Development Finance Corporation\u00a0(called DFC) with\u00a0a merger of the former Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and the Development Credit Authority (DCA), formerly housed in the US Agency for International Development. The DFC has a combined investment portfolio of $60 billion from OPIC and DCA to compete with China\u2019s $1 trillion.[99]<\/sup>\u00a0By contrast, China has deliberately combined its growing economic,\u00a0military, and diplomatic power with American funds (including the interest payments to Beijing) for their advancement and global influence operation.<\/p>\n

In his\u00a0Farewell Address<\/i>\u00a0in 1796, George Washington offered a\u00a0piece of advice:\u00a0\u201cavoid the necessity of those overgrown military establishments, which, under any form of government, are inauspicious to liberty, and which are to be regarded as particularly hostile to Republican Liberty. In this sense it is, that your Union ought to be considered as a main prop of your liberty, and that the love of the one ought to endear to you the preservation of the other.\u201d[100]<\/sup>\u00a0In the final analysis, the preservation of liberty and autonomy is the very essence of authentic Americanism. The Chinese system with its influence industry based upon \u201csharp power,\u201d hardly match the ultimate desires of freedom-loving people in Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

*<\/b>Patrick Mendis<\/a>, a former American diplomat and a military professor, is currently serving as a Taiwan fellow of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China, as a distinguished visiting professor of global affairs at the National Chengchi University, and as a visiting scholar at the Taiwan Center for Security Studies in Taipei. Dr. Mendis has until recently served as a distinguished visiting professor of Sino-American relations at the Yenching Academy of Peking University and as a commissioner of the United States National Commission for UNESCO at the US Department of State. He is an alumnus of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota. The views expressed in this analysis do not represent the official positions of the author\u2019s current or past institutional or governmental affiliations. This article is courtesy of the SAIS Review of International Affairs, a Foreign Policy Institute publication<\/a> of the Paul Nitz School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at the Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC, USA.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

References<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

[1]<\/sup>\u00a0Caitlin Campbell, Ethan Meick, Kimberly Hsu and Craig Murray, \u201cChina\u2019s \u2018Core Interests\u2019 and the East China Sea\u201d (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Backgrounder, 2013), 2,\u00a0https:\/\/www.uscc.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/Research\/China\u2019s%20Core%20Interests%20and%20the%20East%20China%20Sea.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[2]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Dominique Reichenbach, \u201cTaiwan\u00a0and Sri Lanka as the anchors of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,\u00a0China US Focus<\/i>, May 8, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chinausfocus.com\/foreign-policy\/taiwan-and-sri-lanka-as-the-anchors-of-the-indo-pacific-strategy-of-the-united-states.<\/a><\/p>\n

[3]<\/sup>\u00a0Ben Blanchard and Robert Birsel, \u201cUS Increases Support for Taiwan in Recognition Battle With China,\u201d\u00a0New York Times<\/i>, March 26, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/reuters\/2020\/03\/26\/world\/asia\/26reuters-taiwan-usa.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cSL Govt Decides not to Sign $480mn MCC Agreement,\u201d\u00a0Outlook,\u00a0<\/i>February 29, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.outlookindia.com\/newsscroll\/sl-govt-decides-not-to-sign-480mn-mcc-agreement\/1747783<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[5]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cUS Set to Designate China as \u2018Strategic Competitor\u2019 in Trump\u2019s First National Security Strategy,\u201d\u00a0Japan Times<\/i>, December 18, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2017\/12\/18\/asia-pacific\/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific\/u-s-set-designate-china-strategic-competitor-trumps-first-national-security-strategy\/#.Xo1ELdNKhdh<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[6]<\/sup>\u00a0Bakkton Booker, \u201cTrump Administration Diverts $3.8 Billion In Pentagon Funding To Border Wall,\u201d\u00a0National Public Radiol,\u00a0<\/i>February 13, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/02\/13\/805796618\/trump-administration-diverts-3-8-billion-in-pentagon-funding-to-border-wall<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[7]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cMemorandum of Conversation, by the Ambassador at Large,\u201d (Foreign Relations of the United States, Volume VII, Korea, 1950),\u00a0https:\/\/history.state.gov\/historicaldocuments\/frus1950v07\/d86<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/sup>\u00a0Kenji Kawase, Lauly Li, and Cheng Ting-Fang, \u201cTaiwan Grills WHO Over Seat at the Table as Coronavirus Spreads,\u201d\u00a0Nikkei Asian Review<\/i>, February 7, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Spotlight\/Coronavirus\/Taiwan-grills-WHO-over-seat-at-the-table-as-coronavirus-spreads<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/sup>\u00a0Kensaku Ihara and Rintaro Hosokawa, \u201cWith Nod from China, Taiwan Gets Seat at WHO Coronavirus Forum,\u201d\u00a0Nikkei Asian Review<\/i>, February 13, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Spotlight\/Coronavirus\/With-nod-from-China-Taiwan-gets-seat-at-WHO-coronavirus-forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[10]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang, \u201cThe Three Mistakes the Chinese Government has made in its Mishandling of the Coronavirus Crisis,\u201d\u00a0South China Morning Post,\u00a0<\/i>February 19, 2020,\u00a0<\/i>https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/comment\/opinion\/article\/3051164\/three-mistakes-chinese-government-has-made-its-mishandling<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[11]<\/sup>\u00a0Ryan Pickrell, \u201cChinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Pushes Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory that the US Army \u2018brought the epidemic to Wuhan,\u2019\u201d\u00a0Business Insider,\u00a0<\/i>March 14, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[12]<\/sup>\u00a0Idrees Ali and Huizhong Wu, \u201cU.S. Warship Sails Through Taiwan Strait, Stirs Tensions with China,\u201d\u00a0Reuters,\u00a0<\/i>July 24, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-taiwan-china-military\/u-s-warship-sails-through-taiwan-strait-stirs-tensions-with-china-idUSKCN1UJ370<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[13]<\/sup>\u00a0Maegan Vazquez and Betsy Klein, \u201cTrump again Defends use of the Term \u2018China virus,\u2019\u201d\u00a0CNN<\/i>, March 19, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/17\/politics\/trump-china-coronavirus\/index.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[14]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cWon\u2019t Allow \u2018outside interference\u2019 in Sri Lanka\u2019s Internal Affairs: China,\u201d\u00a0Hindustan Times,\u00a0<\/i>January 15, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/world-news\/wouldn-t-allow-outside-interference-in-sri-lanka-s-internal-affairs-china\/story-WM9nCRg95YC730X562wXUL.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[15]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cPresident tells Chinese Foreign Minister:\u00a0Sri Lanka working for economic independence,\u201d\u00a0Daily News<\/i>, January 15, 2020,\u00a0http:\/\/www.dailynews.lk\/2020\/01\/15\/local\/208464\/sri-lanka-working-economic-independence<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[16]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cWon\u2019t Allow \u2018outside interference.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

[17]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cUS, Sri Lanka Share Compelling Interests: Alice Wells,\u201d\u00a0Colombo Page,\u00a0<\/i>January 26, 2020,\u00a0http:\/\/www.colombopage.com\/archive_20A\/Jan26_1580024205CH.php<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[18]<\/sup>\u00a0Kelum Bandara, \u201cAlice Wells Delivers Letter to Prez from Trump,\u201d\u00a0Daily Mirror UK,\u00a0<\/i>January 15, 2020,\u00a0http:\/\/www.dailymirror.lk\/breaking_news\/Alice-Wells-delivers-letter-to-Prez-from-Trump\/108-181263<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[19]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cSri Lanka gets USD 500 Million Loan from China as Financial Aid,\u201d\u00a0New Indian Express<\/i>, March 18, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.newindianexpress.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/18\/sri-lanka-gets-usd-500-million-loan-from-china-as-financial-aid-2118472.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[20]<\/sup>\u00a0Kelum Bandara, \u201cAlice Wells Delivers.\u201d<\/p>\n

[21]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cMaintaining U.S. Influence in South Asia: The FY 2018 Budget,\u201d (House Hearing, 2017),\u00a0https:\/\/www.govinfo.gov\/content\/pkg\/CHRG-115hhrg26758\/html\/CHRG-115hhrg26758.htm<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[22]<\/sup>\u00a0Asoka Bandarage, \u201cNeocolonialism and geopolitical rivalry in Sri Lanka,\u201d\u00a0Asia Times<\/i>, January 29, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2020\/01\/neocolonialism-and-geopolitical-rivalry-in-sri-lanka\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[23]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cPrincipal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Alice Wells,\u201d\u00a0Global Public Affairs,\u00a0<\/i>January 24, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/translations.state.gov\/2020\/01\/24\/principal-deputy-assistant-secretary-of-state-for-south-and-central-asian-affairs-alice-wells\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[24]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cChina, India and Lanka: How to understand Beijing\u2019s vision and mission in the post-American world,\u201d\u00a0Daily FT,\u00a0<\/i>November 29, 2019,\u00a0http:\/\/www.ft.lk\/opinion\/China\u2013India-and-Lanka\u2013How-to-understand-Beijing-s-vision-and-mission-in-the-post-American-world\/14-690565<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[25]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang, \u201cWashington\u2019s Blue Dot Network (BDN): Missing the Mark on its Counter-China Strategy,\u201d\u00a0China-US Focus<\/i>, December 18, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chinausfocus.com\/finance-economy\/washingtons-blue-dot-network-bdn-missing-the-mark-on-its-counter-china-strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[26]<\/sup>\u00a0US State Department,\u00a0Blue Dot Network<\/i>, no date,\u00a0https:\/\/www.state.gov\/blue-dot-network\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[27]<\/sup>\u00a0Brian M. Linn,\u00a0Guardians of Empire: The U.S. Army and the Pacific, 1902-1940\u00a0<\/i>(North Carolina: The University of North Carolina Press, 1999), 6.<\/p>\n

[28]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cMemorandum of Conversation.\u201d<\/p>\n

[29]<\/sup>\u00a0Ibid<\/p>\n

[30]<\/sup>\u00a0Tom Porter, \u201cSee Inside Diego Garcia, a secretive US Navy base on British land at the center of a bitter tug-of-war in the Indian Ocean,\u201d\u00a0Business Insider,\u00a0<\/i>September 2, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/photos-diego-garcia-air-base-indian-ocean-2019-8<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[31]<\/sup>\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n

[32]<\/sup>\u00a0Gregory M. Reynolds and Amanda Shendruk, \u201cDemographics of the U.S. Military,\u201d\u00a0Council on Foreign Relations,\u00a0<\/i>April 24, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/demographics-us-military<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[33]<\/sup>\u00a0David Vine, \u201cWhere in the World Is the U.S. Military?\u201d\u00a0Politico,\u00a0<\/i>July 2015,\u00a0https:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2015\/06\/us-military-bases-around-the-world-119321<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[34]<\/sup>\u00a0Jeff Desjardins, \u201cNearly 200,000 US Troops are Currently Deployed around the World \u2014 here\u2019s where,\u201d\u00a0Business Insider,\u00a0<\/i>March 20, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/us-military-personnel-deployments-by-country-2017-3<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Also see Stephanie Savell, \u201cThis Map Shows Where in the World the U.S. Military Is Combatting Terrorism,\u201d\u00a0Smithsonian Magazine<\/i>, January 2019,https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/history\/map-shows-places-world-where-us-military-operates-180970997\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[35]<\/sup>\u00a0Jim Mattis, \u201cSummary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America,\u201d (Department of Defense, 2018),\u00a0https:\/\/dod.defense.gov\/Portals\/1\/Documents\/pubs\/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[36]<\/sup>\u00a0Dwight D. Eisenhower, \u201cMilitary-Industrial Complex Speech,\u201d\u00a0Public Papers of the Presidents,\u00a0<\/i>1960,\u00a0https:\/\/avalon.law.yale.edu\/20th_century\/eisenhower001.asp<\/a>, 1035-1040.<\/p>\n

[37]<\/sup>\u00a0Michael R. Pompeo, \u201cRemarks on \u2018America\u2019s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision\u2019 at Indo-Pacific Business Forum,\u201d\u00a0American Institute of Taiwan,\u00a0<\/i>July 30, 2018,\u00a0<\/i>https:\/\/www.ait.org.tw\/secretary-pompeos-remarks-at-the-indo-pacific-business-forum\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[38]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cProposed US Budget Seeks to Allocate $2 Billion for Indo-Pacific Strategy,\u201d\u00a0Belt and Road News,\u00a0<\/i>February 12, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.beltandroad.news\/2020\/02\/12\/proposed-us-budget-seeks-to-allocate-2-billion-for-indo-pacific-strategy\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[39]<\/sup>\u00a0Jeff Mason, \u201cTrump slashes foreign aid, cuts safety net programs in new budget proposal,\u201d\u00a0Reuters<\/i>, February 9, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-trump-budget\/trump-slashes-foreign-aid-cuts-safety-net-programs-in-new-budget-proposal-idUSKBN2030PV<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[40]<\/sup>\u00a0Clare Foran,\u00a0Manu Raju,\u00a0Haley Byrd\u00a0and\u00a0Ted Barrett, \u201cTrump Signs Historic $2 Trillion Stimulus After Congress Passes it Friday,\u201d\u00a0CNN,<\/i>\u00a0March 27, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/27\/politics\/coronavirus-stimulus-house-vote\/index.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[41]<\/sup>\u00a0Elena Botella, \u201cWhat Seniors Need To Know About Trump\u2019s 2021 Federal Budget,\u201d\u00a0Forbes,\u00a0<\/i>February 10, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/elenabotella\/2020\/02\/10\/what-seniors-need-to-know-about-trumps-2021-federal-budget\/#7a6484b38426<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[42]<\/sup>Allen Cheng, \u201cNew Silk Road: Realizing China\u2019s dream,\u00a0Asia Money<\/i>, September 27, 2018,https:\/\/www.euromoney.com\/article\/b1b3gssw2d1dlq\/new-silk-road-realizing-china39s-dream<\/a><\/p>\n

[43]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cEconomics Costs,\u201d\u00a0Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs Brown University,\u00a0<\/i>January 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/watson.brown.edu\/costsofwar\/costs\/economic<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[44]<\/sup>\u00a0Nelson D. Schwartz, \u201cAs Debt Rises, the Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Than on the Military,\u201d\u00a0<\/i><\/b>N New York Times,\u00a0<\/i>September 25, 2018,\u00a0<\/i>https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/09\/25\/business\/economy\/us-government-debt-interest.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[45]<\/sup>\u00a0Jacob Geiger, \u201cRandy Forbes says the U.S. pays China $73.9 million per day in debt interest,\u201d\u00a0Politifact<\/i>, April 26, 2011,\u00a0https:\/\/www.politifact.com\/factchecks\/2011\/apr\/26\/randy-forbes\/randy-forbes-says-us-pays-china-739-million-day-de\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[46]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cHow Much Debt Does China Own,\u201d\u00a0Investopedia,<\/i>\u00a0January 15, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/investing\/080615\/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[47]<\/sup>\u00a0Jonathan A. Hillman, \u201cHow Big Is China\u2019s Belt and Road?\u201d\u00a0CSIS,\u00a0<\/i>April 3, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[48]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cChina Now has More Diplomatic Posts than any other Country,\u201d\u00a0CNN,\u00a0<\/i>November 27, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-50569237<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[49]<\/sup>\u00a0Courtney McBride, \u201cTrump Keeps the Pressure on State Department Spending,\u201d\u00a0Wall Street Journal,\u00a0<\/i>March 11, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/trumps-keeps-the-pressure-on-state-department-spending-11552326475<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[50]<\/sup>\u00a0Jack Corrigan, \u201cThe Hollowing-Out of the State Department Continues,\u201d\u00a0The Atlantic,\u00a0<\/i>February 11, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2018\/02\/tillerson-trump-state-foreign-service\/553034\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[51]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cThe Chinese Century is Well Under Way,\u201d\u00a0Economist,\u00a0<\/i>October 27, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2018\/10\/27\/the-chinese-century-is-well-under-way<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[52]<\/sup>Sebastian Horn<\/a>,\u00a0Carmen M. Reinhart<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Christoph Trebesch<\/a>, \u201cHow much money does the world Owe China,\u201d\u00a0Harvard Business Review<\/i>, February 26, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/hbr.org\/2020\/02\/how-much-money-does-the-world-owe-china<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[53]<\/sup>\u00a0Eric Schmidt, \u201cEric Schmidt: I Used to Run Google. Silicon Valley Could Lose to China,\u201d\u00a0New York Times,\u00a0<\/i>February 27, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/02\/27\/opinion\/eric-schmidt-ai-china.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[54]<\/sup>\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n

[55]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cThe Global AI Index,\u201d\u00a0Tortoise Media,\u00a0<\/i>https:\/\/www.tortoisemedia.com\/intelligence\/ai\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[56]<\/sup>\u00a0Eric Schmidt, \u201cI Used to Run Google.\u201d<\/p>\n

[57]<\/sup>\u00a0Graham Allison, \u201cAmerica second? Yes, and China\u2019s lead is only growing,\u201d\u00a0Boston Globe,\u00a0<\/i>May 22, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/opinion\/2017\/05\/21\/america-second-yes-and-china-lead-only-growing\/7G6szOUkTobxmuhgDtLD7M\/story.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[58]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cLotus\u00a0Tower shows cultural ties between Sri Lanka, China,\u201d\u00a0China.org.cn<\/i>, December 6, 2017,\u00a0http:\/\/www.china.org.cn\/arts\/2017-12\/06\/content_50088474.htm<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[59]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Dominique Reichenbach, \u201cTaiwan\u00a0and Sri Lanka as the anchors of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,\u00a0China US Focus<\/i>, May 8, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chinausfocus.com\/foreign-policy\/taiwan-and-sri-lanka-as-the-anchors-of-the-indo-pacific-strategy-of-the-united-states.<\/a><\/p>\n

[60]<\/sup>\u00a0David E. Sanger and Mary K. Brooks, \u201cBattlefield 5G,\u201d\u00a0Wilson Quarterly,\u00a0<\/i>Spring 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.wilsonquarterly.com\/quarterly\/who-writes-the-rules\/battlefield-5g\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[61]<\/sup>\u00a0Shihar Aneez and Sanjeev Miglani, \u201cA hospital and clean water: China on the charm offensive in Sri Lanka,\u201d\u00a0Reuters,<\/i>November 19, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-sri-lanka-politics-china\/a-hospital-and-clean-water-china-on-the-charm-offensive-in-sri-lanka-idUSKBN1XU01T<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[62]<\/sup>\u00a0Reuter, \u201cHospital, clean water: China\u2019s charm offensive in SL,\u201d\u00a0Deccan Herald<\/i>, November 20, 2019,https:\/\/www.deccanherald.com\/international\/hospital-clean-water-chinas-charm-offensive-in-sl-777869.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[63]<\/sup>\u00a0Marwaan Macan-Markar, \u201cChina grips Sri Lanka with artificial island off Colombo,\u201d\u00a0Nikkei Asian Review<\/i>, December 12, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Spotlight\/Belt-and-Road\/China-grips-Sri-Lanka-with-artificial-island-off-Colombo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[64]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cPrincipal Deputy Assistant.\u201d<\/p>\n

[65]<\/sup>\u00a0Kelum Bandara, \u201cAlice Wells Delivers Letter to Prez from Trump,\u201d\u00a0Daily Mirror UK,\u00a0<\/i>January 15, 2020,\u00a0http:\/\/www.dailymirror.lk\/breaking_news\/Alice-Wells-delivers-letter-to-Prez-from-Trump\/108-181263<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[66]<\/sup>\u00a0Daphne Psaledakis, Doina Chiacu, Mary Milliken, and Alistair Bell, \u201cU.S. bans Sri Lankan army chief from entry, citing civil war abuses,\u201d\u00a0Reuters,\u00a0<\/i>February 14, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-sri-lanka\/us-blacklists-sri-lankan-army-commander-cites-killings-abuses-idUSKBN2081UR<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[67]<\/sup>\u00a0Maria Abi-Habib and Dharisha Bastians, \u201cU.S. Bars Sri Lankan Army Chief Accused of War Crimes,\u201d\u00a0New York Times,\u00a0<\/i>February 15, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/02\/15\/world\/asia\/sri-lanka-us-sanctions.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[68]<\/sup>\u00a0Julian Borger, \u201cUS Imposes Sanctions on Sri Lankan Army Chief Over War Crimes,\u201d\u00a0Guardian,\u00a0<\/i>February 14, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/feb\/14\/us-sanctions-sri-lanka-army-chief-shavendra-silva<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[69]<\/sup>\u00a0Sanjeev Miglani and Paul Tait, \u201cDeath Toll from Sri Lanka Bombing Attacks Rises to 359: Police,\u201d\u00a0Reuters,<\/i>\u00a0April 23, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-sri-lanka-blasts-toll\/death-toll-from-sri-lanka-bombing-attacks-rises-to-359-police-idUSKCN1S00C7<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[70]<\/sup>\u00a0Office of the Spokesperson,\u00a0State Department and US Agency for International Development (USAID) FY 2021 Budget Request<\/i>, February 10, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.state.gov\/state-department-and-u-s-agency-for-international-development-usaid-fy-2021-budget-request\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[71]<\/sup>\u00a0Arul Louis, \u201cProposed US Budget Seeks to Allocate $2bn for Indo-Pacific Strategy,\u201d\u00a0Indica News,\u00a0<\/i>February 11, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/indicanews.com\/2020\/02\/11\/proposed-us-budget-seeks-to-allocate-2bn-for-indo-pacific-strategy\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[72]<\/sup>\u00a0Aaron Mehta and Joe Gould, \u201cTaiwan F-16 Sale Office Cleared by Trump Administration,\u201d\u00a0Defense News,\u00a0<\/i>August 20, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/asia-pacific\/2019\/08\/20\/taiwan-f-16-sale-officially-cleared-by-trump-administration\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[73]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cUS: Taiwan defense spending to rise with China threat,\u201d\u00a0Military Times,\u00a0<\/i>August 15, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/flashpoints\/2019\/08\/15\/us-says-taiwan-defense-spending-to-rise-with-china-threat\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[74]<\/sup>\u00a0Zack Budryk, \u201cState Department OKs $2 Billion Arms Sale to Taiwan,\u201d\u00a0Hill,\u00a0<\/i>July 9, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/asia-pacific\/452127-state-department-gives-ok-to-arms-sale-to-taiwan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[75]<\/sup>\u00a0Chris Buckley and Chris Horton, \u201cXi Jinping Warns Taiwan That Unification Is the Goal and Force Is an Option,\u201d\u00a0New York Times<\/i>, January 9, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/01\/01\/world\/asia\/xi-jinping-taiwan-china.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[76]<\/sup>\u00a0Dereck Grossman, \u201cWhere Does China\u2019s \u2018One Country, Two Systems\u2019 Stand in 2020?\u201d\u00a0RAND Corporation,\u00a0<\/i>February 13, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.rand.org\/blog\/2020\/02\/where-does-chinas-one-country-two-systems-stand-in.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[77]<\/sup>\u00a0Yimou Lee, \u201cTaiwan leader rejects China\u2019s \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 offer,\u201d\u00a0Reuters,\u00a0<\/i>October 9, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-taiwan-anniversary-president\/taiwan-leader-rejects-chinas-one-country-two-systems-offer-idUSKBN1WP0A4<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[78]<\/sup>\u00a0Alice Su, \u201cWith each generation, the people of Taiwan feel more Taiwanese \u2014 and less Chinese,\u201d\u00a0Los Angeles Times<\/i>, February 15, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world\/asia\/la-fg-taiwan-generation-gap-20190215-htmlstory.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[79]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cH.R.535-Taiwan Travel Act,\u201d (Congressional Report<\/i>, Vol. 164, 2018),\u00a0https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/bill\/115th-congress\/house-bill\/535\/text<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[80]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Fu-kuo Liu, \u201cThe Early Casualties of the TAIPEI Act in the Post-Coronavirus World,\u201d\u00a0The National Interest<\/i>, May 17, 2020,https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/early-casualties-taipei-act-post-coronavirus-world-1548511<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[81]<\/sup>\u00a0James McBride and Andrew Chatzky, \u201cWhat is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?\u201d The Council on Foreign Relations, January 4, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[82]<\/sup>\u00a0Alasdair Nicholson, \u201cSuspicion creeps into the Five Eyes,\u201d\u00a0Interpreter,\u00a0<\/i>August 30, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/suspicion-creeps-five-eyes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[83]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cPhilippines Notifies US of Intent to End Major Security Pact,\u201d\u00a0Military.com,\u00a0<\/i>February 11, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.military.com\/daily-news\/2020\/02\/11\/philippines-notifies-us-intent-end-major-security-pact.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[84]<\/sup>\u00a0Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, \u201cPhilippines\u2019 Richest 2019: Chinese Infrastructure Investment Could Inject Much-Needed Growth,\u201d\u00a0Forbes<\/i>, September 25, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/yuwahedrickwong\/2019\/09\/25\/philippines-richest-2019-chinese-infrastructure-investments-could-inject-much-needed-growth\/#3bd04b8c25fa<\/a>. Also see a Russian investment tracker for China,\u00a0\u201cIntelTrak:\u00a0A visual analytic tool that tracks the global business operations and risk profiles of Chinese and Russian companies,\u201d\u00a0https:\/\/www.rwradvisory.com\/services\/inteltrak\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[85]<\/sup>\u00a0Op cit., Military.com, February 11, 2020.<\/p>\n

[86]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis, \u201cThe Battle for the Global Future: The Christians in America and the Confucians in China?\u201d in the\u00a0Hong Kong Journal of Law And Public Affairs<\/i>, Inaugural Volume 2019, see pp. 43-52,\u00a0http:\/\/warpweftandway.com\/images\/2019\/11\/HKJLPA-Inaugural-Volume.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[87]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Dominique Reichenbach, \u201cTaiwan\u00a0and Sri Lanka as the anchors of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,\u00a0China US Focus<\/i>, May 8, 2020,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chinausfocus.com\/foreign-policy\/taiwan-and-sri-lanka-as-the-anchors-of-the-indo-pacific-strategy-of-the-united-states.<\/a><\/p>\n

[88]<\/sup>\u00a0Eric Edelman and Gary Roughead, \u201cProviding for the Common Defense,\u201d\u00a0United States Institute of Peace,\u00a0<\/i>2018,\u00a0https:\/\/www.usip.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2018-11\/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[89]<\/sup>\u00a0\u201cPanel Discussion: A New American Way of War,\u201d\u00a0Center for a New American Security,\u00a0<\/i>March 7, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.cnas.org\/events\/panel-discussion-a-new-american-way-of-war<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[90]<\/sup>\u00a0Sydney J. Freedberg Jr, \u201cUS \u2018Gets Its Ass Handed To It\u2019 In Wargames: Here\u2019s A $24 Billion Fix,\u201d\u00a0Breaking Defense,\u00a0<\/i>March 7, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/2019\/03\/us-gets-its-ass-handed-to-it-in-wargames-heres-a-24-billion-fix\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[91]<\/sup>\u00a0Nicholas Kristof, \u201cThis Is How a War With China Could Begin,\u201d\u00a0New York Times,\u00a0<\/i>September 4, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/09\/04\/opinion\/china-taiwan-war.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[92]<\/sup>\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n

[93]<\/sup>\u00a0Steven Lee Meyers, \u201cChinese Embassy Bombing: A Wide Net of Blame,\u201d\u00a0New York Times,\u00a0<\/i>April 17, 2000,\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2000\/04\/17\/world\/chinese-embassy-bombing-a-wide-net-of-blame.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[94]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang, \u201cChina\u2019s Era of Debt-Trap Diplomacy May Pave the Way for Something Sinister,\u00a0National Interest<\/i>, February 3, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/chinas-era-debt-trap-diplomacy-may-pave-way-something-sinister-42927<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[95]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis, \u201cHow Donald Trump Betrayed American Values and Jeffersonian Legacy with Trip to Saudi Arabia,\u201d\u00a0South China Morning Post,\u00a0<\/i>June 1, 2017,\u00a0https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/comment\/insight-opinion\/article\/2096469\/how-donald-trump-betrayed-american-values-and-jeffersonian<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[96]<\/sup>\u00a0Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang, \u201cDecoding China\u2019s Grand Plan,\u201d\u00a0China US Focus<\/i>, January 31, 2019,\u00a0https:\/\/www.chinausfocus.com\/foreign-policy\/decoding-chinas-grand-plan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[97]<\/sup>\u00a0John Quincy Adams, \u201c\u2018She Goes Not Abroad in Search Of Monsters To Destroy,\u2019\u201d\u00a0American Conservative,\u00a0<\/i>July 3, 2013,\u00a0https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/repository\/she-goes-not-abroad-in-search-of-monsters-to-destroy\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[98]<\/sup>\u00a0Daniel Kliman, \u201cLeverage the new US International Development Finance Corporation to compete with China,\u201d\u00a0The Hill<\/i>, November 16, 2018,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/international\/416904-leverage-us-international-development-finance-corporation-compete-with-china<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[99]<\/sup>\u00a0Daniel Bases, \u201cUS development agency looks to boost funding to $60 billion,\u201d\u00a0The Reuters<\/i>, September 25, 2018,\u00a0https:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-development-opic\/u-s-development-agency-looks-to-boost-funding-to-60-billion-idUKKCN1M501M<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[100]<\/sup>\u00a0George Washington, \u201cWashington\u2019s Farewell Address 1796,\u201d\u00a0Yule Law School Lillian Goldman Law Library,\u00a0<\/i>1796,\u00a0https:\/\/avalon.law.yale.edu\/18th_century\/washing.asp<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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