{"id":225111,"date":"2022-01-23T00:01:35","date_gmt":"2022-01-22T18:31:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=225111"},"modified":"2022-02-01T19:02:28","modified_gmt":"2022-02-01T13:32:28","slug":"gotabaya-his-contenders-what-was-said-not-said-in-the-presidents-policy-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/gotabaya-his-contenders-what-was-said-not-said-in-the-presidents-policy-speech\/","title":{"rendered":"Gotabaya & His Contenders – What Was Said & Not Said In The President\u2019s Policy Speech"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Rajan Philips<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Rajan Philips<\/p><\/div>\n

What struck me most about the President\u2019s policy speech to parliament last week was its subdued tone. It was more than mildly defensive, but fully free of boast and bluster. The last two years have certainly clouded the aspirational vistas of \u2018Saubhagya Dakma\u2019, even though there were two references to it in the speech \u2013 one in connection with the Eastern (port) Terminal (now with the Indians), and the other on renewable energy (ostensibly with the Chinese in Jaffna\u2019s isles). Despite its subduedness, the President\u2019s speech did not give any indication that his administration is in control of any of the crises he is literally presiding over. From that standpoint, and to the point of today\u2019s title, the speech left many key things unsaid compared to the many that were said.<\/p>\n

My purpose is also to look at the implications the President\u2019s speech might have for the near-term political paths of his two emerging contenders, Sajith Premadasa<\/a><\/span> and Anura Kumara Dissanayake<\/a><\/span>. As I concluded last week, the two contenders have a long way to go in pursuing their claims to power even as the President and his government are running out of road to stay in power. Will the policy speech help to extend that shortening road for the government? More bluntly, is the speech a turning point for the government to pull itself out of the hole that it keeps digging? Looked at it another way, what markers are in the speech that the two challengers might use to differentiate themselves not only from the government but also from one another, and to assert their own alternative approaches?<\/p>\n

Only speech, no shuffle<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

When the President prorogued parliament in December, there were two expectations. First, there was going to be a major cabinet reshuffle in which the President will get rid of the old deadwood and bring the best and the brightest of the Viyathmaga<\/a><\/span> stars (whoever that might be) to the front benches of the government. Second, the President will use the resumption of parliament to deliver a new road map and demonstrate to the country that he and his new cabinet will deliver in the next three years what he and his old cabinet could not do in the last two years.<\/p>\n

Proroguing has come and gone, parliament has been shut and re-opened, but there is no new cabinet. Only the firing of a backbench State Minister who was a front bench cabinet minister under Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/a><\/span>. That was all the President could accomplish in spite of all the powers he arrogated to himself under the 20th<\/sup> Amendment. Especially, the power to fire a Prime Minister and to unmake and make cabinets at will \u2013 the power that had been checkmated by the 19th<\/sup> Amendment. The President now has the power he coveted but he cannot carry out his threat to shuffle the cabinet. Because shuffling the cabinet would mean breaking up the government. A break-up will not be enough to bring down the government, but more than enough to chip away the President\u2019s two-thirds majority in parliament. So, the President is stuck with his old cabinet. That may have been a reason for the subdued tone of the speech to parliament. Indeed, in his speech the President beseeched parliamentarians of all hues for their support \u201cto overcome the challenges that the country faces today.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for the speech itself, it is not his fault but whoever who wrote the speech harnessed the President to ramble on from start to finish \u2013 touching on a range of topics with no thematic order. Rather, in this order: the role of parliament and parliamentarians; the two lost years due to Covid-19<\/a><\/span>; vaccination success \u2013 a modest boast; national security \u2013 now resolved and apparently forgotten; national reconciliation \u2013 of sorts; law & order and judiciary \u2013 a sermon of support from a dubious guardian; the (new) constitution \u2013 just three sentences; development and infrastructure \u2013 ad nauseum; the economy \u2013 a rather casual assurance that normalcy is returning; a litany of projects \u2013 almost all on irrigation and drinking water; foreign exchange crisis \u2013 the biggest problem for everyone, but mentioned as a postscript; education \u2013 an honorary lecture on university education; technology \u2013 full of digital vistas. Finally, the President\u2019s blessings to his subjects: \u201cTheruwan Saranai!\u201d<\/p>\n

There is no need for us to ramble on the speech in the same order, but there are a few pickings for a passing look. On national security, the President bemoaned that \u201cmany have forgotten that the key issue facing the people of this country when I became the President in 2019 was national security.\u201d Actually, Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith has not forgotten anything. Only, the Cardinal remembers differently and constantly reminds the country that it is the President who has forgotten the \u201ckey issue\u201d on which he campaigned and won the election. True to form, the President recalled how his government has dealt with \u2018underworld terrorism,\u2019 \u2018drug terrorism,\u2019 and how as Defence Secretary he finished off the old LTTE terrorism. But there was no mention whatsoever of Easter terrorism or the alleged masterminds behind the Easter Sunday bombings.<\/p>\n

This Administration hardly has any credibility to lecture on human rights, law and order and the judiciary. But these topics somehow found their way into the President\u2019s speech. What was resoundingly left out was any reference to the \u2018One Country, One Law\u2019 Task Force. Understandably, the two could not be reconciled in the same speech. But which one of them \u2013 one country – one law, or universal justice for all \u2013 is the President really committed to? On reconciliation itself, the speech actually fell far short of media speculations that the President was going to include something substantial at the behest of India \u2013 a political payback for the forex swap.<\/p>\n

Nothing New<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

There was nothing new or substantial about reconciliation in the speech. The very next day, the TNA leader R. Sampanthan and his colleagues were at the Indian High Commission to hand over their letter addressed to Prime Minister Modi, and pleading for a different swap. Remarkably, and as the Daily Mirror<\/em> reported, President Rajapaksa is yet to hold talks with the Tamil leadership or elected MPs since his election to office in November 2019. Apparently, in June 2021, a meeting between the President and a TNA delegation was scheduled, but the meeting was cancelled by the President\u2019s office and a new meeting has not been scheduled since.<\/p>\n

The speech had three sentences on the new constitution: \u201cGovernments since 1994 have, on various occasions, attempted to introduce a new Constitution but to no avail. Therefore, I appointed an Experts Committee, with the approval of the Cabinet, to study this subject in depth, broadly consult public opinion and prepare a preliminary draft for a people-friendly constitution. I hope to submit the recommendations of this Committee to the Cabinet and the Parliament for broad discussion.\u201d We can hardly wait, and it is not clear what the Experts Committee might have produced. Just recommendations, or a whole new draft.<\/p>\n

On the economy, foreign exchange crisis and fear of food shortages, the speech offered platitudes, blames and excuses. There were no serious clues about how the government is planning to turn things around, except the claim: \u201cToday we are self-sufficient in turmeric\u201d! There was no mention of the IMF at all, or whether the government is going to stick to bilateral swapping until Sri Lanka\u2019s exports suddenly start booming. On organic fertilizer, the President is stubbornly sticking to his belief that the failure of the lamebrained switch is because of \u201ca misunderstanding in this regard as our objective and plan were not properly communicated, and some practical issues in introducing the programme were politicized.\u201d<\/p>\n

There was deafening silence about the gas cylinder fiasco at home, and the controversial contract with New Fortress Energy, the American company. The President reiterated his goal to achieve Sri Lanka\u2019s carbon neural target by 2050, but there was no mention of any measures for climate adaptation \u2013 for dealing with the now familiar recurrent cycles of floods and droughts.<\/p>\n

The speech was also silent about the government\u2019s foreign policy or, more accurately, about the government\u2019s approach to Sri Lanka\u2019s relations with other countries. Sri Lanka has no conflict with any country, but the countries Sri Lanka has to deal with most are in conflict among themselves. More than ever, there is no room for native cunning to play one country against another. What is needed is a balanced approach based on principled self-interest, and there was no indication of it in the policy speech.<\/p>\n

Overall, the policy speech of the President is more a puzzle than a road map. The underlying purpose of the government has come to be more about self-preservation than about any national interest. Self-preservation is necessary in politics as in life, but it cannot be the be all and end all of government. As the President enters his third year in office, Sri Lanka is caught in an economic crisis and faces a likely food crisis unlike any time in its modern past, and unlike any other country in Asia. If the policy speech last week is all that the government is capable of mustering as a response to the current crises, then there is little hope for the country from this government and little hope for the self-preservation of the government from the wrath of the people.<\/p>\n

The current situation raises the stakes for the President\u2019s contenders, Sajith Premadasa (who wants the government to leave) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (who is ready to lead). For their benefit, the President\u2019s policy speech leaves plenty of markers to stake their own ground. Markers on the economy, food crisis, the constitution, foreign relations, energy contracts, climate adaptability and so on. Specifically on the constitution, what The Island<\/em>\u2019s editorial said last Wednesday (January 19), after the President\u2019s speech, is a prudent thought to hold as we wait for the report of the Experts Committee: \u201cPerhaps, if the 20th Amendment is abolished and the 19th Amendment reintroduced with some changes, we may be able to make do with the existing Constitution.\u201d<\/p>\n

(Next Week: The new JVP Manifestos)<\/p>\n

Related posts:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Anura Is Ready To Lead, Sajith Asks The Government To Leave, Gota Mulls Referendum & Sirisena Calls It Silly<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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