{"id":225660,"date":"2022-03-02T13:45:46","date_gmt":"2022-03-02T08:15:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=225660"},"modified":"2022-03-08T15:13:06","modified_gmt":"2022-03-08T09:43:06","slug":"putins-self-inflicted-fiasco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/putins-self-inflicted-fiasco\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s Self-Inflicted Fiasco"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><strong>By <a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=Kumar+David\">Kumar David<\/a> &#8211;<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_207855\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/us-economic-foreign-policy-woes\/kumar-david-8\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-207855\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-207855\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-207855\" src=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Kumar-David-150x150.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Kumar-David-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Kumar-David-45x45.jpeg 45w, https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Kumar-David.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-207855\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Prof. Kumar David<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Ukraine joining <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=NATO\">NATO<\/a><\/span> and\/or the stationing nuclear weapons is a red line that neither the people of <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=Russia\">Russia<\/a><\/span> nor a government that wishes to survive in domestic politics can permit to be crossed. This column for months has said so. But the offensive that began on 23 February was premature, unpopular, excessive and the outcome is doubtful; diplomatic options had not been exhausted. Putin is said to be a master strategist but this time he has blundered. He promised the world that he would not invade Ukraine and then did just that. The 170,000 troops he sent in are inadequate for the onerous task the Russian military has been assigned of taking and holding <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?s=Ukraine\">Ukraine<\/a><\/span> for any length of time. As of this time of writing (1 March) not a single Ukrainian city has fallen to the Russians. Frustrated by this slow progress, enraged by French high-seas piracy in seizing a Russian cargo vessel and flustered by a tornado of sanctions and illegal acquisition of Russian bank assets, Putin has put his nuclear arsenal on alert. Is it bluff to distract from his cock-up? For a long game he needed a larger force, deeper pockets, careful explanation and preparation of Russian and world opinion and global alliances. He did none of this.<\/p>\n<p>It is true that the US, NATO, capitalist Europe and the government in Kiev have for months if not years brushed aside Russia\u2019s unquestionably justified security concerns. But Putin should have persisted in these efforts until Kiev made a practical move to membership. A decades old clause in the Ukrainian Constitution does not amount to an imminent move. Yes, if Ukraine\u2019s accession to membership was imminent it is tantamount to a declaration of war but that was not the case. However, what is far more sinister and dangerous is that the US and NATO have lied time again promising not to expand NATO up to the Russian border and broken that pledge every time inching ever closer.<\/p>\n<p>The two most important presentations you can access at this time giving a general background are by distinguished American scholar and Professor at Chicago University, John Mearsheimer;<\/p>\n<p>Current situation:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Nbj1AR_aAcE\" width=\"900\" height=\"500\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Background (A perceptive talk given in 2015!):<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JrMiSQAGOS4\" width=\"900\" height=\"500\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Four European invasions inflicted cataclysmic suffering on the Russian people; a Swedish invasion in 1708-09, occupation of European Russia including Moscow by Napoleon\u2019s Grand Army in 1812, World War I and Hitler\u2019s devastation of Russia from its Western border all the way to the gates of Leningrad and Stalingrad. The invasion by Charles XII of Sweden during the Great Northern War, a monarchical contest between the sovereigns of Russia, Poland, and Denmark in 1707-09 was against Peter the Great. It began in January 1708 and ended with the Charles\u2019 defeat at the Battle of Poltava in July 1709. Russia carried out its famed \u201cscorched earth policy\u201d employed again against the Grand Army and the Wehrmacht, one and two centuries later, respectively, at enormous cost. In WW2 the USSR lost 25 million men and women, more than all other combatants in the European theatre combined and suffered catastrophic devastation. These are seared into the national consciousness.<\/p>\n<p>Putin\u2019s remark \u201cRussia\u2019s security concerns are non-negotiable\u201d is just what this column repeatedly predicted months ago but his military flop has wrecked his case. On the other side Biden and court jester Boris are playing to recoup domestic approval ratings. How may it end? Permanent occupation is infeasible \u2013 maybe a deal with Zelenskyy, or a coup in Kiev, or maybe Putin will agree to let the UN replace his \u201cpeace keepers\u201d by a battalion or two of the traditional UN type, but no way will he go back on recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent countries. A compromise has to be worked out, there is no other way in this age of dismal cynicism.<\/p>\n<p>The Ukrainian air-force and air defences have been partly destroyed, its puny navel capability boxed in, but the army is fighting with resolve, civilians are mobilising and neo-Nazis are taking a prominent role; all bad news for Russia. A small country is no match for the Russian juggernaut which is probably taking the opportunity to field-test new weapons systems. Putin has now offered Kiev conditions for stopping the offensive; an undertaking never to join NATO and a promise to never station nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Similar what the Americans did to Cuba in 1962. Kiev should accept the conditions though it will anger America and NATO. In truth is it Putin who is being na\u00efve? Has he not learnt from repeated false promises since 1991? But he has no alternative now; he wants sanctions which will bite deep lifted. The West is to blame for not making it clear from the beginning that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO. Why did it not do so? Because it needed a handle to screw the Russians, but the sorcerer\u2019s practices are now out of control. The West\u2019s clear objective now is to crush a Russia that is not under its control. It may win because Putin has stumbled.<\/p>\n<p>Even if assurances are given, they will certainly not be honoured down the line. I am not imputing dishonest motives to Biden and Macron (Boris is a colourful clown and crook) but times move on, priorities change and leaders are as transient as a passing cloud; for this reason, Putin will attempt to get a secure hold on Ukraine\u2019s polity. Something less than regime change as that would be too glaring and less even than stationing a battalion or two of troops. One option is a system of inspection modelled on the Iran nuclear pact. A protracted standoff short of war will include cyberattacks on each other\u2019s banking sectors, SWIFT, energy and electricity dispatch centres, space controls like NASA, military-nuclear facilities and air-traffic control. In any event World War 3 will not start with gunpowder.<\/p>\n<p>Russian economic and financial systems are being damaged by Western economic might, Putin\u2019s regime has been undermined and who knows, he may have to go. Ukraine and Putin are small change in this mighty game of global finance-capital. Imperialism\u2019s real need it is to bring Russia to heel and eventually forge a grand alliance against the real alternative superpower, China. Neutralising Russia will be helpful in this venture. The stakes are astronomically high for the whole world. All bets are off the table for now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":225663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2186,46,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-225660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombotelegraph","category-featured-news","category-constitutional-reforms","category-editorial"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Putin\u2019s Self-Inflicted Fiasco - Colombo Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/putins-self-inflicted-fiasco\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Putin\u2019s Self-Inflicted Fiasco - 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