{"id":226551,"date":"2022-04-17T02:33:53","date_gmt":"2022-04-16T21:03:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=226551"},"modified":"2022-04-24T11:49:04","modified_gmt":"2022-04-24T06:19:04","slug":"regime-braces-for-confrontation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/regime-braces-for-confrontation\/","title":{"rendered":"Regime Braces For Confrontation"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Kumar David<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Prof. Kumar David<\/p><\/div>\n

When we wish to laugh at ourselves, we say \u201cSixty-nine lakhs of us voted for Gota three years ago, now ninety-six lakhs of us are chanting Go Gota Go!\u201d The President, his goofy Viyathmaga<\/em> advisors and his cabal of ex-military hangers-on have in three short years scored more own-goals than Muralitharan took wickets in his whole career. Still Gotabaya hangs on by his bleeding fingernails while the country erupts and rots. Another confusing thing is why did the JVP declare its innings closed even before batting?\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Mahinda\u2019s broadcast of 11 April confirms a decision has been made to fight to the finish. No resignation of Presidents or Prime Ministers, no talk of restructuring, no mention of quick elections, but chilling reminders of the heroic deeds of the military. He all but said: The Rajapaksas are Lanka\u2019s symbol of power; we shall rule! The references to the military were chilling. Do protest leaders remember the White Flag Incident? Is this what awaits them? Have thousands of chanting youth forgotten the 60,000 who perished in 1989-90 and the LTTE \u201cboys\u201d? Either protests and \u201cGota Go!\u201d, now extended to \u201cMahinda also Go!\u201d, spreads to every town and corner the country, or this regime will repeat all this. The rumour mill is running overtime: Galle Face will be cleared by force (or ignored till the protesters quit, overcome by fatigue); rabble rousers and yellow-robed rascals will descend upon the protesters; provocateurs will dig deep, etc.<\/p>\n

The Rajapaksa Clan is power-hungry to a degree that no previous ruling circle has been. But it is also said that Gota is fed up, knows he is despised, knows that an attempt at a military putsch will engender a mass backlash and that petrol-stations in sunny California beckon! From time to time there have been signals that he was inclined to throw in the towel and call it quits. Is it the choice between greed for power and peace of mind that he is unable to make? Does he fear that if unseated, he will be brought to book in domestic and international courts for mismanagement, abuse of power and crimes against humanity?<\/p>\n

I think neither. Me thinks the problem lies elsewhere. If Gota falls, the Clan will cry out \u201cOh what a fall that is dear Clansmen, brother-officers, assorted crooks, friends and bungling imports from California. You and I and all us will fall\u201d. (Mark Anthony won\u2019t mind poetic licence in the service of this island nation). Yes, that\u2019s the truth, too many crooks and knaves have been appointed as ambassadors, corporate chairmen, board members and asinine Central Bank bosses; too many Ministers and government MPs are ready-marinated for roasting in the bribery courts. That\u2019s my reading; Gota cannot cut and run though it is as stark, staring clear as the noonday sun that he is despised and the people want him to \u201cGo Gota Go!\u201d<\/p>\n

Where will this end? The end result will be that Gota is forced out this way or that; all he can do is prolong the misery and wound the country by delaying the inevitable. There is speculation that $1.5 billion in an Indian line of credit, repayment deferrals of Chinese debt and IMF mediated restructuring in international capital markets after the default will buy time to sooth the body politic and put up a show for the next election. SLPP, forget the next election! Even pacifying mass unrest is impossible. Forecasting elections is a fire that has singed everyone\u2019s fingers but some edifices are too high to scale. Whether the Rajapaksa-rump plus SLPP will garner five, fifteen, or twenty-five parliamentary seats I will not speculate, but that this corrupt, financially bust, default-tainted Administration will be routed at the election is beyond doubt.<\/p>\n

Thanks to India I can foresee diesel, petrol and cooking-gas shortages easing, I can see imported onions and dhal reappearing in grocery stores, but even a best-case scenario is inadequate to sooth the nerves of infuriated masses. Call our people foolish voters, but exasperated fools can\u2019t be soothed. I can\u2019t see the \u2018Go Gota Go!\u2019 chant subsiding till it achieves its ends. I can\u2019t see how Gota can hang-on, bleeding finger nails and torn pyjamas as hungry crocodiles look up from the bottom of the cliff \u2013 do crocodiles smack their lips? Come on Mr President, do yourself a favour; cut and run before the night turns inky black. Unlike brother Bacillus you are not accused of personal corruption or 10% kickbacks. Only the Clan, Ministers and MPs are so accused, so why not hook it before your name too gets tarnished in this inky black?<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s this conundrum about presidential elections. Ideally the Executive Presidency (EP) should be abolished without trace but what are the stages? That is the question. Sajith hankers for the presidency but it seems he will settle for the residual offerings of the 19-th Amendment \u2013 that is repeal of the authoritarian 20-th Amendment only. It is premature to predict how balances of power are likely to pan out after Gota bolts, but it sure is the best time to set in motion constitutional processes to bring about an irreversible repeal of EP.<\/p>\n

There is little I have said so far that you have not worked out for yourself already though I have I hope emitted less words than writers prone to verbal obesity and column-inch inflation. Nevertheless, none has explored the curious behaviour of the JVP-NPP. Non-political friends make comments like \u201cCurious\u201d, \u201cDifficult to understand\u201d, \u201cThey don\u2019t want to participate in anything not organised and led by them\u201d, \u201cSectarians\u201d and worse. First and most important, this outburst took the JVP 110% by surprise. The comrades were sound asleep when someone woke them and said \u2018look out of the window, thousands are on the street marching against the government\u2019. The comrades awoke, rubbed their eyes and exclaimed: \u201cVipleve patang araganathe? Aiyo aparade; ai kowruth upata kiuve nathe?\u201d<\/em> Ok, ok, I\u2019m having a little fun as otherwise this piece is as heavy as a leaden cannon.<\/p>\n

To be fair there are reasons why JVP-NPP banners and flags are not seen in the demonstrations. These events are organised via social-media networks and party logos are unwelcome. Still several NPP artists, students and academics participated. The organisers, for reasons best known to themselves, wish events to be non-party, not multi-party. The JVP-NPP has started organising events at town centres almost every day and will hold a three-day Pada Yatra<\/em> from Kalutara to Kandy from 17th-19th. Indeed, there will soon be many groups protesting; they need to be cooperative not confrontational. Best and most productive is all-sector, all-party mobilisation and a general strike; but this idea is too complex for the JVP and unfortunately even some in the NPP to grasp just yet. Actually, I am aghast at NPP-JVP standoffishness; it is critiqued by many as sabotage (kadaa-kappal vada<\/em>) but neither do the middleclass organisers of the protests have adequate contacts and skills to draw in all political parties, all social complexions, trade unions and farmers? Lanka is battling for democracy; everyone must be there. The People\u2019s Movement has to spread to every class and corner of the country to become ever more broad-based.<\/p>\n

The JVP is confused because this People\u2019s Movement is not a Mass-Movement of the type the left is familiar with. It is multi class, ethnic and religious. Artists, sportsmen, singers and writers have thrown in their weight. It is led by energised intellectuals, the liberal middle-class and \u2018new\u2019 youth – not militant workers, peasants and radical parties – and the objective is change of government not transformation of the state. These two videos illustrate its broad people-oriented rather than left-oriented nature.<\/p>\n