{"id":226779,"date":"2022-04-27T14:17:56","date_gmt":"2022-04-27T08:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=226779"},"modified":"2022-05-02T12:08:12","modified_gmt":"2022-05-02T06:38:12","slug":"a-staged-default-sovereign-bond-debt-trap-imfs-spring-meetings-amid-hybrid-cold-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/a-staged-default-sovereign-bond-debt-trap-imfs-spring-meetings-amid-hybrid-cold-war\/","title":{"rendered":"A Staged Default & Sovereign Bond Debt Trap? IMF’s Spring Meetings Amid Hybrid Cold War"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake<\/p><\/div>\n

In Cherry Blossom lined Washington DC last week Sri Lanka became the poster child of the International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF<\/a><\/span>), Spring Meetings in the glare of global media last week. The strategic Indian Ocean island\u2019s pathetic plight featured on major media and television channels that craft the global narrative, with images of people in queues amid food, fuel, and medicine shortages due to its crashing currency, soaring cost of living and \u2018Arab Spring\u2019 style protests.<\/p>\n

One of the wealthier nations in the South Asia region and listed as by the World Bank in 2019 as an Upper Middle Income County (MIC), Sri Lanka with a population of 22 billion people had just defaulted on her debt payments– for the first time in the country\u2019s history. Global media imaging of the scenic island nation\u2019s financial crisis served to affirm the relevance of the Washington Consensus and the Fund albeit as the \u201clender of last resorts.<\/p>\n

The timing of the Sri Lanka rupee\u2019s crash against the \u201cexorbitantly privileged\u201d US dollar was as miraculous as the Easter Sunday hybrid war attacks in the tourism-dependent island that targeted Chinese-owned Shangri La and other luxury hotels, which were mysteriously claimed by Islamic State (ISIS) in 2019.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Oxfam released the \u201cInequality Kills\u201d Report and called on the IMF to \u201cabandon demands for austerity as a cost-of-living crisis drives up hunger and poverty worldwide\u201d. Its spokesperson noted that \u201c87 percent of the International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF) COVID-19 loans require developing countries facing some of the world\u2019s worst humanitarian crises to adopt tough, new austerity measures that will further exacerbate poverty and inequality.<\/p>\n

The organization noted that \u201cthe wealth of the\u00a0world\u2019s 10 richest men doubled since the pandemic began while the incomes of 99% of humanity are worse off because of COVID-19\u201d. 263 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2022, due to the combined impact of COVID-19, inequality and food and energy price inflation \u2013 accelerated by the war in Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sri Lanka\u2019s total debt is USD 51 billion and the country must pay USD 7 billion this year to International Sovereign Bond (ISB) traders based in New York as noted by Senior Economist and Head of the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), Dr. Dushni Weerakoon.<\/p>\n

For a comparative perspective, Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter for USD 43 billion, in the same week! The greatest transfer of wealth in human history transpired over the past two years while much of the world was in Covid-19 lockdowns and global trade disrupted, also resulting in speculation in commodities futures, which were partly responsible for the spike in global food and fuel prices as noted by Economist Jayati Ghosh. Is the exorbitantly privileged Greenback weaponized against sanctions hit Russia being used on other strategic \u2018emerging economies\u2019 as a hybrid Cold War envelops the world<\/u>? Should the US dollar and its supporting financial architecture be dumped?<\/p>\n

Staged Dollar Shortage, down-grades and Arab Spring Protests<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Back on Colombo\u2019s Galle Face seafront, Arab Spring Playbook-style protests by youth enjoying their freedom after 2 years of Covid lockdowns unfolded as part of the push to propel the Colombo regime\u2019s pivot to Washington DC.<\/p>\n

Usually anti-government protests happen at the iconic Independence Square, but the current protests were staged close to South Asia\u2019s busiest sea port \u2013 the Colombo Harbour and notably near the Chinese built Colombo Port city.<\/p>\n

While the protestors, anonymously organized via Social Media, called on the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapakse to go home they did Not say \u201cGota Go Home to AMERICA\u201d. The President after all was a US citizen until 2019. Nor was Debt Cancellation or a debt jubilee<\/u> on the agenda of the Protestors, some of whom held posters calling on the government to go to the IMF in the hope of better financial management. The IMF had been painted as a savior by various economists and local think tanks as the drum beat to default intensified!<\/p>\n

But the Protestors had other creative solutions to the island\u2019s crisis of corruption and economic miss-management: \u201cA Buy Local Products Campaign\u2019 to encourage citizens to support local manufacture and industry and stop consuming expensive imported luxury goods, for instance.<\/p>\n

Some suggested a permanent halt of the practice of providing Duty Free car permits to politicians, doctors, university lecturers and the privileged \u2018professional\u2019 class, as well as abolishing various special health Insurance schemes.<\/p>\n

Other protestors wanted to reverse the privatization of the national Health care and Education system and the sale of Yugadhanavi power plant to a dubious American company called New Fortress. The latter had compromised Sri Lanka\u2019s Energy Security.<\/p>\n

Several protestors suggested marching to the US embassy and call on the US Government to return all the assets of the dual US citizen and Minister for Economic Disaster, Basil Rajapakese in Los Angeles to pay down the National Debt. Others called for accountability for those responsible for the Central Bank Bond Scams. Long term suggestions to grow the economy and develop the country were setting up Research and Development working groups on Energy Security, Ocean and Mineral resources.<\/p>\n

Some academics supporting the protests suggested Debt Cancellation and cited the Debt Jubilee project that had earlier called on the IMF and World Bank to offer an immediate cancellation of all principal, interest and charges due to the deadly economic toll of the World Health Organization \u2018s (WHO) Covid-19 lockdowns in poor countries.<\/p>\n

The Jubilee project had also recommended that the G20 support moves by any country to stop making payments on debt to private external lenders and that new IMF and World Bank finance should be in the form of grants not loans, and require other lenders to reprofile the debt where sustainability is uncertain, or restructure their debt where it is unsustainable,[1]<\/a><\/span> to help ensure money is used to support public policy priorities in response to the COVID-19 crisis, rather than to repay other lenders.<\/p>\n

Sovereign Bond Debt Trap<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Like Lebanon, once known as the Paris of the Middle east, Sri Lanka is a relatively wealthy country in South Asia and listed as a lower Middle Income Country (MIC). The strategic island is ahead of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Afghanistan on the SAARC regional poverty count.<\/p>\n

The country has always paid down its debt and had no previous history of default. Likewise, its debt to GDP ratio, another metric to determine the solvency of a county, at 110 percent was not off the map although this is cited as one of the reasons for rating agency downgrades, leading to difficulty borrowing to sustain debt servicing and default. But this too may be kept in perspective. The top ten countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio according to the World population review are: [i]<\/a><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Venezuela<\/a> \u2014 350%<\/li>\n
  2. Japan<\/a> \u2014 266%<\/li>\n
  3. Sudan<\/a> \u2014 259%<\/li>\n
  4. Greece<\/a> \u2014 206%<\/li>\n
  5. Lebanon<\/a> \u2014 172%<\/li>\n
  6. Cabo Verde \u2014 157%<\/li>\n
  7. Italy<\/a> \u2014 156%<\/li>\n
  8. Libya<\/a> \u2014 155%<\/li>\n
  9. Portugal<\/a> \u2014 134%<\/li>\n
  10. Singapore<\/a> \u2014 131%<\/li>\n
  11. Bahrain<\/a> \u2014 128%<\/li>\n
  12. United States<\/a> \u2014 128<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    While China has often been identified as the source of Sri Lanka\u2019s Debt trap it is Euro-American based International Sovereign Bond (ISB) traders, whose names are kept secret that are mainly responsible for the default at this time.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a>The above map\u2019s colour coding may be miss-leading since it is the green coded International Sovereign Bonds (ISB)s and Other Financial Markets that are the cause of Sri Lanka\u2019s debt default at this time and NOT the bi-lateral lenders (although coded in red in the above graph<\/u>. In fact, Sri Lanka\u2019s bi-lateral and multilateral donors which include the ADB, Japan, China and India have all indicated a desire to help and willingness to delay debt payment. They have also donated food, fuel and medicine to the cash strapped island.<\/p>\n

    While the names and proportions of the national debt owned by various bi-lateral donors and multi-lateral agencies, such as the ADB, World Bank, Japan, China, each with around 10 percent and India around 4 percent, were known, the names of the US and EU based ISBs that own over 55 percent of the island\u2019s debt and which are part of the shadowy international financial system where black money is parked in off shore accounts, which are primarily responsible for the \u2018debt trap\u2019 and downgrades, are not disclosed.<\/p>\n

    ISBs are the root cause of the Sri Lanka\u2019s Default at this time<\/u>, but this is a well-kept secret, hidden by the \u201cChinese debt trap\u201d propaganda and narrative, and by local economists and think tanks funded by USAID and EU grants and projects. The latter promote the narrative the IMF is the \u2018solution\u2019 despite the fact that the IMF has never pretended that it cares about poor people or inequality, or even protestors but rather works for the global 1 percent. In fact, the IMF is fundamentally part of the problem.<\/p>\n

    In the final analysis downgrades by rating agencies are based on various and Subjective considerations of \u201cCONFIDENCE\u201d in the ability of the county to sustain debt as stated by Dr. Nishan De Mel of Verite Research. “When the IMF determines that a country\u2019s debt is not sustainable, the country needs to take steps to restore debt sustainability prior to IMF lending” the Fund\u2019s country director Masahiro Nozaki said recently in a statement regarding Sri Lanka. The IMF does not differentiate between illiquidity and insolvency!<\/u><\/p>\n

    Pumped and Dumped? The Middle Income Country (MIC) trap<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    From a longer and wider perspective, the question arises: was Sri Lanka \u201cpumped and dumped\u201d by the Washington Consensus, when the World Bank up-graded it to a lower Middle Income Country (MIC) in 1997, and then an Upper MIC in 2019 thus making it ineligible for low interest development aid which compelled borrowing on Capital markets– like other countries that are placed in the \u2018Middle Income Country Trap?<\/p>\n

    Rating Agencies and Sovereign Bond traders work in concert with the Washington Consensus and the OECD Paris Club of Western aid donors, and do not recognize the difference between illiquidity and insolvency. <\/u>It is increasingly evident that the island\u2019s debt crisis has many external dimensions and is not entirely internally driven.<\/p>\n

    Arguably, under most metrics Sri Lanka should not have been down-graded to the point of default by Rating Agencies like Moody\u2019s and Fitch at this time. The downgrades were principally due to the USD 7 billion payments due to US-based Bond traders like Goldman Saks, Black Rock and Vanguard.<\/p>\n

    Asset managers BlackRock Inc. and Ashmore Group Plc. were among the creditors organizing in a group ahead of the IMF talks, and had hired law firm White & Case for advice. Ayres Investment Management LLP, DecisionBoundaries LLC and Perella Weinberg LP are among firms seeking to provide financial advice to Sri Lanka\u2019s creditors, sources said, as the country heads towards a revamp of its $12 billion of external debt. Recent filings show major asset managers such as Fidelity, T Rowe Price and TIAA also hold some of the country\u2019s outstanding dollar bonds.<\/p>\n

    Disregarding the difference between illiquidity and insolvency, the drum beat and narrative of and for Sri Lanka\u2019s Default was in the air for some time- at least since the rejections of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact: As Professor Howard Nicholas, of the Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Netherlands, recently suggested in a lecture organized by the Economic Students Association of the University of Colombo, alluding to Geopolitics and the recent visit by US Secretary for South and Southeast Asia, Victoria Nuland to Colombo, the island\u2019s Default seemed to followed a systematic, deliberate and planned route to deliver Sri Lanka into IMF\u2019s and Washington\u2019s clutches.<\/p>\n

    Default would enable the IMF\u2019s and various foreign legal firms and \u2018advisors\u2019 to effectively takeover this strategic island nation\u2019s economic policy process, and Sri Lanka would lose Economic and Social<\/u> Policy Autonomy and Sovereignty<\/u>. Simultaneously, the IMF\u2019s aid conditionalities would enable Washington to stave off a perceived China Threat and likely make it impossible for Sri Lanka to source its oil, gas and other energy requirements at discount rates from sanctions-hit Russia. After all soring food and grain prices are a significant reason for the current crisis Has, Sri Lanka become, like Ukraine, a theater of US proxy war this time in the Indian Ocean Region as the New Cold War escalates?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    However, from a different perspective, this island at the center of Indian Ocean Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC), seems to suffer from a \u201cParadox of Plenty\u2019 or perhaps a geostrategic “Resource Curse\u201d.<\/p>\n

    An Unsinkable Aircraft carrier? Asset stripping a strategic island<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Former US Under Secretary for South and Central Asia, Alice G. Well, a few years ago called Sri Lanka a \u201cvaluable piece of real estate\u2019 in the Indian Ocean, and the country not long ago turned down a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact and a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).<\/p>\n

    Others have termed Sri Lanka \u201can unsinkable aircraft carrier\u201d in the Indian Ocean \u2013 more strategic than the Chagos Islands whose citizens were forcibly evicted by US marines in the early sixties in order to set up the Diego Garcia military base and CIA Black site, which was recently Green washed by the occupying British Government as a Marine Protected Areas (MPA). In February 2019 the International Court of Justice in the Hague had ruled that the British and hence US occupation of Chagos Islands is illegal under international law as the Island belongs to the government and people of Mauritius.<\/p>\n

    In the context, it is noteworthy that the Sri Lanka Business Times of April 17, 2022 announced that the Government heading into IMF negotiations is hoping to raise US$8 billion from the lease or sale of valuable public assets to bolster its rapidly dwindling foreign reserves, based on a report of a newly-appointed economic advisory committee.<\/p>\n

    Among the main items for sale or long lease were the Katunayake International Airport for $2 billion, Mattala Airport for $300 million and Ratmalana Airport for $400 million. The Colombo North Port Development Project was to be handed over for an investment of $600 million while Colombo Port City lands would be leased out at a total of $4 billion.<\/p>\n

    Shares of Sri Lanka Telecom will be sold at a price of $500 million and Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation shares for $300 million. The strategic island\u2019s telecom frequencies, important for cyber-security, 5G technology and surveillance and security of Under Sea Data Cable Routes (UDC) and Indian Ocean SLOC in Sri Lanka\u2019s marine Exclusive Economic Zone, had been previously targeted by the MCC that also targeted the island\u2019s land, transport and energy sectors, by the MCC.<\/u><\/p>\n

    Divestment of non-strategic state-owned assets, such as lands owned by Sri Lanka Railways and Sri Lankan Airlines has been suggested as a part of the government\u2019s multi-pronged plan in the short-term to improve their operational and financial efficiency while increasing the country\u2019s reserves position.<\/p>\n

    Divesting strategic assets because of cultivated corruption in the targeted public institutions is tantamount to throwing the baby out with the bathwater! <\/u>Moreover, there is a difference between illiquidity and insolvency that has been ignored in the rush to monetize strategic transport, energy, land and cyber security assets in this island at the center of the Indian Ocean SLOC.<\/p>\n

    Questions arise as to who made the above valuations of Sri Lanka\u2019s strategic assets? When and on What basis?<\/u><\/p>\n

    In the context of the island being deemed \u2018valuable real estate in the Indian Ocean SLOC with extensive ocean and mineral resources albeit resources that the island has failed to leverage for industrialization that are being looted by corporations backed by so-called \u201caid donors\u201d, including highest grade Graphite and Rare Earth Elements the island may actually suffer from a geostrategic resource curse, that made it a donor darling in the past and the subject of various Colonization<\/u> projects in the name of \u2018Development Aid\u2019.<\/p>\n

    However, sale of strategic land and transport assets of the island that had been previously ear-marked by MCC seems to be a pre-condition for \u2018lender of last resorts\u201d to bailout Lanka.<\/p>\n

    It is increasingly evident that the island\u2019s debt crisis has many external dimensions and is not entirely internally driven. The strategic island has long been in the cross-hairs of big power rivalry.<\/p>\n

    Geopolitics of Sri Lanka\u2019s permanent crisis: A Staged Default and the Dollar Weaponized<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    The IMF was gracious in Washington and commended Sri Lanka\u2019s brand new Finance Minister, Ali Sabry, who was previously Minister for Justice and Lawfare, for his dash to Washington for a \u201cbailout\u201d and for the steps it has taken to stabilize the economy. Sri Lanka was urged to apply for Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) having delayed debt restructuring for two years.<\/p>\n

    Meanwhile, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman who was also in DC for the Spring Meetings, made representations on behalf of her dear debt-trapped southern neighbor. India is a US Quadrilateral Group (QUAD), partner in America\u2019s confrontation with China in the \u201cFree and Open Indo Pacific\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Sri Lanka was advised to find financial and legal advisers in 15 to 20 days to chart the restructuring and payments of debts: Asset managers BlackRock Inc. and Ashmore Group Plc. were among the creditors organizing in a group ahead of the IMF talks, and had hired law firm White & Case for advice.<\/p>\n

    Notably, absent at the IMF meetings was the President\u2019s brother, dual US citizen <\/u>and ex-Minister of Economic Disaster who had staged and led Sri Lanka\u2019s Default into Washington\u2019s arms.<\/p>\n

    Back in 2020 during Covid-19 lockdowns the law of the land was changed to enable Basil Rajapakse, a high-school dropout, known as Mr. 10 percent for seeking commissions and corrupt deals with cases stacked against him to enter parliament and later head the Covid-19 Task Force. He directed 2 years of militarized Covid Lockdowns and excessive purchases of injections, including Pfizer \u201cboosters\u201d with a Health Sector that had been largely bought by big Pharmaceutical companies. Basil Rajapakse was supposed to lead the GoSL delegation to the IMF\u2019s Spring meeting, but had become a liability as questions are asked about the external actors behind Sri Lanka\u2019 staged default.<\/p>\n

    Questions had been raised about foreign interests and hands behind Sri Lanka\u2019s crisis following Pakistan Prime Minister, Imran Khan\u2019s allegation of regime change operations in his country: Was the long-planned and anticipated plunge of the Sri Lankan rupee against the \u2018exorbitantly privileged\u2019 US dollar that came to pass just in time for the IMF\u2019s Spring meetings partly to preempt a rescue from China which has invested heavily in Sri Lanka?<\/p>\n

    In the final analysis, questions arise if Sri Lanka, ruled by a hybrid Rajapakse family comprise of dual American citizens is being targeted for hybrid economic warfare? With the USD increasingly weaponized<\/u> also against sanctions-hit Russia and other emerging economies? This is not just a theoretical question. Is the debt crisis staged, by local and global networks of financial corruption at play in this strategic island in order to deliver Sri Lanka on a platter to Washington and its Consensus?<\/p>\n

    After all we live in a post-Covid 19 world where conspiracy theories increasingly seem to come true. As such, Debt Cancellation, NOT IMF bail-ins and Asset Stripping are the need of the hour in Sri Lanka and other parts of the Global South, subject to Covid 19 bio-warfare and media narratives promoting fear and the WHO\u2019s economically debilitating Lockdowns in the past two years.<\/p>\n

    *Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake is a social and medical anthropologist with expertise in international development and political economic analysis. She was a member of the International Steering Group of the North-South Institute project: \u201cSouthern Perspectives on Reform of the International Development Architecture\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    [i]<\/a> : https:\/\/worldpopulationreview.com\/country-rankings\/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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