{"id":228858,"date":"2022-08-28T12:51:02","date_gmt":"2022-08-28T07:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=228858"},"modified":"2022-09-05T13:12:12","modified_gmt":"2022-09-05T07:42:12","slug":"war-on-china-vi-india-the-us-forward-policy-the-brzezinskian-project","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/war-on-china-vi-india-the-us-forward-policy-the-brzezinskian-project\/","title":{"rendered":"War On China? \u2013 VI:\u00a0India & The US: Forward Policy & The Brzezinskian Project"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sachithanandam Sathananthan<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Dr. Sachithanandam Sathananthan<\/p><\/div>\n

The China conundrum<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Republic of India joined the United States in the latter\u2019s military manoeuvres to contain the People\u2019s Republic of China for important reasons. First, New Delhi is standing eyeball to eyeball against Beijing along the British-determined Sino-Indian border, the Line of Actual Control<\/a><\/span>. New Delhi\u2019s stance is in part the legacy of the 1962 India-China war, which some analysts concluded was largely due to Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru\u2019s insistence<\/a><\/span> on retaining the contested territorial border between the PRC and the ROI.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The border is the outcome largely of British Indian Empire\u2019s military expeditions into Tibet in the late 19th<\/sup> Century during the Great Game<\/a><\/span> to pursue the Forward Policy<\/a><\/span>, interpreted by the British Viceroy Lord Curzon as establishing a chain of protectorates \u2013 including Sikkim and Bhutan \u2013 to buffer his Empire\u2019s north-eastern border against the Russian Empire.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The British Indian Army (BIA) imposed the 1904 Convention of Lhasa<\/a><\/span> on the Kingdom of Tibet. Under the unequal Treaty the Empire extracted trade concessions for its East India Company and established control over Tibet\u2019s foreign policy to oversee its relations with Russia.\u00a0 <\/span>The BIA\u2019s Colonel\u00a0Francis Younghusband, with a nod from London, demanded Tibet pay an indemnity of Rs. 7,500,000 to the British Indian Empire to compensate the inconvenience and costs of invading the Kingdom. He coerced Tibet into conceding Chumbi Valley as security until full payment of the indemnity in instalments was completed over 75 (seventy five) years. The indemnity was later reduced to Rs. 4,995,000. However, two outcomes were, first, the territorial border with Tibet was re-drawn and, second, the Kingdom was converted into a political shield to stem Russian Empire\u2019s expansionism.<\/p>\n

Under the subsequent 1906 Convention Between Great Britain and China Respecting Tibet, the dominant British Indian Empire coerced the Qing Dynasty<\/a><\/span> \u201cnot to permit any other foreign state [Russia] to interfere with the territory or internal administration of Tibet\u201d. In return the British agreed to recognise China\u2019s claim over Tibet, though the Qing Dynasty lacked the military power to enforce agreement during China\u2019s Century of Humiliation<\/a><\/span> (1839 – 1949). The PRC incorporated Tibet in 1951.<\/p>\n

The imperial manoeuvres of the British Indian Army primarily determined the imprecise and sometimes fluctuating territorial border that has been the source of contention and occasional conflict between the ROI and the PRC. After battling the Japanese occupation army and defeating the US-backed Chiang Kaishek\u2019s forces, Chairman Mao faced Anglo-US aggression in the East (Formosa\/Taiwan) and South-East Asia (Korea\/Vietnam). To make matters worse, the Sino-Soviet confrontation was rapidly coming to a boil. So he moved swiftly to defuse the India-China border issue that hostile Anglo-US interests could exploit to fuel further aggression in the west against the victorious 1949 Revolution.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In May 1959, Beijing sent a note to Delhi<\/a><\/span>. \u201cThe enemy of the Chinese people\u201d, explained Mao, \u201clies in the east \u2014 the US imperialists have many military based in Taiwan, in South Korea, Japan and in the Philippines which are all directed against China\u2026our principal enemy is US imperialism…China will not be so foolish as to antagonize India in the west.\u201d He deputised Prime Minister Zhou Enlai to resolve the border issue and diminish the scope for threat. The latter wrote an apparently conciliatory note to Nehru<\/a><\/span> in November 1959, regretting the \u201cunexpected border clash took place on October 21 within Chinese territory in the area south of the Kongka Pass\u201d and urging \u201ceffective steps, speedily and without hesitation, to earnestly improve the disquieting situation on the border.\u201d Obviously alluding to Anglo-US machinations, Zhou cautioned a border clash in the future \u201ceven though a minor one\u2026will be made use of by people who are hostile to the friendship of our two countries to attain their ulterior objectives.\u201d In April 1960, China\u2019s Foreign Minister Chen Yi virtually pleaded<\/a><\/span> with his Indian counterpart Swaran Singh: \u201c[t]he USA has its bases around us, atomic missiles and atomic weapons around us. Our dispute with India is very small…We are in a serious situation and need your friendship\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n

As a quid pro quo<\/i> Zhou proposed<\/a><\/span> \u201ca \u2018package deal\u2019 for a final settlement: China would accept India\u2019s control over today\u2019s Arunachal Pradesh, which meant its de facto recognition of India\u2019s jurisdiction up to the McMahon Line, if India accepted China\u2019s control over Aksai Chin\u201d, the northern corner of Indian Occupied Kashmir that China had historically administered.<\/p>\n

However, the Indian National Congress (INC) \u2013 established by a retired British colonial bureaucrat, Allan Octavian Hume in 1885 \u2013 imbibed the British Indian Empire\u2019s worldview. The British Indian Elite with a few notable exceptions \u2013 Subash Chandra Bose was one \u2013 were co-opted into the INC; they owed gratitude to the British Viceroy Lord Mountbatten for crushing the revolutionary challenge from Bose<\/a> <\/span>and Trailokyanath Chakraborty<\/a> <\/span>between 1944 and 1946 and delivering the reins of power into the INC\u2019s safe hands. What\u2019s more, Nehru invited the Viceroy to rule as the first Governor General of independent India. If the revolutionaries\u2019 Indian National Army had defeated the Viceroy\u2019s British Indian Army, it\u2019s fair to surmise that the \u201cmoderate\u201d INC elite who stepped into the shoes of the departing British would instead have very likely joined the colonial rulers\u2019 exodus, similar to that witnessed during the flight of China\u2019s Kuomintang<\/i> army to Formosa\/Taiwan and retreat of the US-led NATO forces from Vietnam.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Given its pro-British sentiment, Delhi-centric Congress leadership may have been less receptive to Beijing\u2019s entreating and perhaps emboldened by the British High Commission\u2019s possible negative stance to spurn the compromise offered by Zhou. After General Kaul reported in June 1962 \u201c[i]t is better for us to establish as many posts as we can in Ladakh\u2026as I am convinced that the Chinese will not attack any of our positions even if they are relatively weaker than theirs\u201d, the Congress government pursued the Forward Policy with greater vigour; it directed the Army<\/a><\/span> \u201cto patrol as forward as possible from our present positions towards the international border as recognised by us<\/b>\u2026with a view to establishing additional posts\u2026to prevent the Chinese\u2026advancing further and\u2026to dominate\u2026Chinese posts already established in our territory\u201d (emphasis added).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A further reason, argued an Indian analyst<\/a><\/span>, why Delhi rejected the solution Zhou offered was because \u201cPrime Minister Nehru, [was] an idealist who had just recently participated in an independence movement that was largely based on ideology. The legacy of this sort of thinking was that Nehru and many others in the Indian establishment acquired a self-righteous manner of thinking that held that the Indian position was morally correct and that if they stuck to it without wavering, others would eventually see the righteousness of their position.\u201d After 20 hours of talks with Nehru, Zhou returned empty handed; and New Delhi persisted in its Forward Policy and moved troops<\/a><\/span> into the contested region.<\/p>\n

Mao interpreted the Indian Army\u2019s manipulation of facts on the ground, which he perceived as \u201cIndia\u2019s nibbling policy<\/a><\/span>\u201d, as a strategy to push forward the disputed border, and, unsurprisingly, launched military operations in October of that year. Since then the Sino-Indian border dispute has festered and escalated and India is compelled to ally with the extra-regional power US to face China.<\/p>\n

Politics of Water<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

New Delhi\u2019s lack of cooperation and defuse the India-China border dispute in time has complicated negotiations. Beijing allied with Islamabad after Pakistan joined China\u2019s strategic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the inauguration of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the lynchpin of BRI. Consequently New Delhi\u2019s space to manoeuvre vis-\u00e0-vis Islamabad has shrunk. It faces an uphill task in negotiating with Beijing over the sharing of river waters, a task made more complex and sensitive by the impact of climate change on fluctuating river water flows. This is the second reason New Delhi is reaching out to Washington.<\/p>\n

Beijing controls the headwaters of major South and South-East Asian trans-border rivers that originate in the glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau and carry down life-giving fresh water. Hydroelectric dams China constructs on rivers on the Chinese side of the border allow considerable scope for China\u2019s regional water diplomacy; their implication for potential water insecurity in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and countries of the Mekong Delta are obvious (Map 2).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Map 2: Asia\u2019s Major Rivers
Courtesy The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)<\/p><\/div>\n

China recently demonstrated its water-related geo-political leverage. When Islamists, allegedly from Pakistan, attacked India\u2019s Uri military camp in 2016 Prime Minister Narendra Modi ominously intoned<\/a><\/span>: “Blood and water cannot flow at the same time” and reportedly cautioned Islamabad he would suspend talks on water-sharing under the Indus Water Treaty. A disruption of water supply would jeopardise the CPEC, which critically relies on the Indus for water and hydropower. Beijing reacted swiftly: it announced the construction of a dam<\/a><\/span> is being ratcheted up on a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo, the Tibetan section of India\u2019s Brahmaputra river that flows into Arunachal Pradesh. New Delhi\u2019s implied threat to disrupt the Indus Water Treaty did not materialise.<\/p>\n

The deepening Chinese influence in countries bordering India \u2013 Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh \u2013 poses obvious difficulties for pursuing the Forward Policy and is a further reason for India\u2019s anti-China alliance with the US to open a second front against Beijing in the South China Sea. The double confrontation seems not to cause much alarm in New Delhi, where many policy analysts draw comfort from US backing and cheer India\u2019s \u201crise\u201d as a throwback of sorts to the British Indian Empire. For instance in 2010 India\u2019s veteran foreign policy analyst exulted<\/a><\/span> \u201cThe Return of the [Indian] raj\u201d on the heels of the 2008 Indo-US Nuclear Agreement.<\/p>\n

India-United States alliance<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The current pro-US posture took shape early when Washington inveigled New Delhi into the 2008 Indo-US Nuclear Agreement<\/a><\/span> with inducements that included a not so vague promise to support its aspiration for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Unsurprisingly that promise, as with many others, has evaporated<\/a><\/span> like the morning dew.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Agreement is a high water mark in New Delhi\u2019s drift into America\u2019s sphere of influence to synchronise their foreign policies vis-\u00e0-vis China, hone closer military ties and to strengthen \u2018functional interoperability<\/a><\/span>\u2019 between their armed forces. The 2008 Agreement, asserted Teresita Schaffer at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, is to make \u201cIndia a more durable and reliable nuclear partner<\/a><\/span>\u201d of the United States; a strategic objective, explained Council of Foreign Relations\u2019 Charles D. Ferguson, is \u201cto counterbalance China<\/a><\/span>\u201d, to contain its rapidly growing power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington manoeuvred aggressively to dominate rising Eurasian powers and entrench US unipolarity imagined by the Brzezinskian Project<\/a><\/span> in 1997. However, by 2020 the rise of PRC and reviving Russia, with India, Brazil and Indonesia not far behind, rapidly shifted the geo-strategic balance of power in favour of the emerging multipolarity, exposing US\u2019 primarily military efforts laced with sanctions to maintain the fading unipolarity to be increasingly irrelevant. Today, the US is seeking India\u2019s assistance to arrest the steady decline of its own hegemonic position, a decline that began internally as Monopoly Capital tightened its grip throttling the competitiveness of the US economy from the mid-1970s, if not earlier, and was reinforced externally by the military defeat in Vietnam followed by the similar debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

The US\/NATO ambitions in Eurasia dovetails with New Delhi\u2019s naval strategy of containing China<\/a><\/span> by leveraging \u201cchoke points\u201d, especially the Malacca Strait, to economically strangle China during possible future hostilities<\/a><\/span>. More recently, in 2014 Brookings Institute approvingly examined<\/a><\/span> India\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy-shift from \u2018Look East\u2019 to \u2018Act East\u2019. So, the US Senate fortified the military collaboration in 2018 with the $716 billion<\/a><\/span> National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). New Delhi continued the pro-US shift in 2022 by taking India into the East Asian Quad<\/a><\/span>, dubbed the \u201cAsian NATO\u201d and led by the US, to confront the PRC in the South China Sea, hoping to strike a Strategic Balance against the China-Pakistan partnership.<\/p>\n

However, New Delhi has calibrated its alliance with the US by maintaining a Strategic Ambiguity through multi-alignment, by joining the Shanghai Cooperation Council<\/a><\/span> (SCO) convened by China but opposing the BRI<\/a><\/span> since its flagship CPEC passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (by March 2022 147 governments have signed the MOU with Beijing<\/a><\/span>). India, a rising Eurasian power, ignored US sanctions to trade with Russia (including energy imports) and also abstained on the US-inspired 2022 UNGA resolution against China\u2019s ally, Russia over Ukraine. India\u2019s abstention went against the Brzezinskian Project for a return to the tantalisingly brief US-dominated unipolarity from 1991 to about 2008; evidently riled by New Delhi\u2019s stance the US Deputy Secretary of State declared<\/a><\/span>: \u201cwe<\/b> just have to keep working at this relationship and understanding the complexity of it, and helping India<\/b> to really understand what is in their<\/b> national security interests\u201d (emphasis added).<\/p>\n

It is expected in some quarters that New Delhi would gradually evolve an intra-regional dialogue within<\/i> South Asia that could directly address China\u2019s concerns rather than rely on an extra-regional power. Perhaps India\u2019s strategic analysts are conscious that the US, in search of its Manifest Destiny, and its NATO partners, many of whom are former colonial powers, are barrelling along Barbara W. Tuchman\u2019s March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam<\/i> towards a collision course with China that has compelled John Pilger to caution, \u201cAnother Hiroshima is Coming<\/a><\/span>\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

New Delhi may have an inkling that after the US has, IF at all, neutered Russia and China and re-established its unipolarity, resurging US hegemony will fall upon the next rising Eurasian power, India to continue the elimination of challengers to US power.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

[Concluded]<\/p>\n

Previous posts<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

War on China? \u2013 I<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

War on China? \u2013 II<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

War on China? \u2013 III<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

War on China? \u2013 IV<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

War on China? \u2013 V<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

*Dr Sachithanandam Sathananthan is an independent researcher who received the Ph.D degree from the University of Cambridge. He was Visiting Research Scholar at the Jawaharlal Nehru University School of International Studies and taught World History at Karachi University\u2019s Institute of Business Administration.\u00a0He is an award-winning filmmaker and may be reached at: commentaries.ss@gmail.com<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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