{"id":239262,"date":"2024-10-18T05:50:27","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T00:20:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=239262"},"modified":"2024-10-25T03:09:30","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T21:39:30","slug":"aftermath-of-akd-victory-what-is-in-store","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/aftermath-of-akd-victory-what-is-in-store\/","title":{"rendered":"Aftermath Of AKD Victory \u2013 What Is In Store\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Gnana Sankaralingam<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Dr. Gnana Sankaralingam<\/p><\/div>\n

First action he is to take, is to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections. During this period from dissolution to summoning new parliament, country would be ruled by an interim government, which will be constituted by members of the existing parliament. JVP has only five members including the newly nominated one, and therefore needs others to join. There will not be much problem as there are number of Muslim MPs who are ready to somersault, and opportunistic MPs like Sumanthiran, Devananda and some Sinhala MPs will give them support. Another problem to be faced is to get many NPP members elected at the next hustings. After proportional representation was introduced, no faction was able to secure two-thirds majority, and NPP cannot expect any better result than that. Once settled, let us analyse how they would perform in meeting their promises to the people.<\/p>\n

Corruption<\/span><\/strong> \u2013 They will certainly take action to eliminate corruption as much as possible. Whether they will only succeed to net sprats and not sharks is to be seen. Their campaign has been funded by several people who would be expecting returns, and to satisfy them, they may resort to gifting contracts and kickbacks. As for efficiency, they have to pick the team from among their supporters and not solely on merit, and this could result in some misfits occupying places of authority. Nevertheless they will do well in this field. <\/b><\/p>\n

Populism<\/span><\/strong> \u2013 They will take political measures to please the people, which will sustain their vote bank, which might be at the expense of the state. Removal of VAT for food items, educational books and health sector services is good, as well as cutting down costs of electricity and fuel, but they have not said how they are going to fill this loss to the revenue. Their proposals to curtail number of ministries and perks and privileges of parliamentarians and past presidents will be welcomed by people, but these expenditures are only droplets in the ocean of wastage. Their outreach to farmers with fertiliser subsidy and guaranteed price for crops and fisherfolk with modern technology will receive plaudits from them. <\/b><\/p>\n

Economics<\/span><\/strong> \u2013 They do not seem to have any understanding of the situation in which the country is. Open economy is working well dispite corruption and mismanagement and any attempt to tamper with it will be disastrous. If they put new conditions on IMF loan negotiations, they will walk away, with only bilateral agencies like China and India to request for loans. Multilateral agencies like World bank, ADB and JICA may fund essential projects to help the people and not mega ones. Income from tourist arrivals and expatriate remittances will not increase substantially and NPP will not be able to make exports of commodity items to rise to desirable level. So in order not to create queue culture in distirbution of essentials, NPP government has to restrict importing of luxury items, taking the country back to 61 – 70 period. Main trading partner of Srilanka is western countries and if they antagonise them by toying with China, they will take the country back to 70 – 77 period of shortages.<\/p>\n

Tamil Demands<\/span><\/strong> –\u00a0 <\/span>As far as Tamils are concerned, JVP have not changed their stance, which is reflected in the voting pattern. If NPP is genuine, they must address it, that system change is meaningless to Tamils without including what they have been fighting for. If NPP is not willing to adhere to this principle, Tamil agitation will continue. In their policy statement NPP have said that there will be no inquiry on war crimes committed on Tamils but only a truth and reconciliation commission. One could be certain that majority of those who committed atrocities on Tamils will never speak the truth. NPP is silent on other issues like release of lands occupied by security forces, fate of missing persons and settlement of refugees in their original places. As for autonomy, they would never grant anything tangible. With these, if they try to put down Tamil dissent, it will exacerbate the problem. <\/b><\/p>\n

Geopolitics<\/span><\/strong> \u2013 Although AKD wants to visit India, NPP is on the wrong foot by wanting to cancel Adani windfarm project in Mannar. To counter Chinese influence, India is demanding certain concessions, which previous governments have dodged, which will come up again to haunt NPP. Regarding bridge across palk straits, NPP is against it, which will put them at loggerheads with India. Any attempt by NPP to accommodate China at the expense of India, could result in confrontational situation and some form of intervention. \u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, if NPP maintains the status quo without distrupting it and only taking measures to end corruption and mismanagement, they could carry on like how the previous government did. There is no likelihood of them getting substantial foreign investments (FDI) to lift up the economy and make the country solvent. Debt moratorium by private lenders is only for few years, and with NPP in power this facility may not be extended. NPP will do well in micro-economics, but when it comes to macro-economics they will come a cropper which will please the people but will be detrimental to the country. One of the stated intention of NPP is abolition of executive presidency, which is good for democracy, but the government will come under control of extremist elements in JVP who will dictate terms. In considering these there is a mixed bag and after all these, people deserve what they choose. \u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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