{"id":240470,"date":"2025-01-09T10:45:21","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T05:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=240470"},"modified":"2025-01-14T22:50:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T17:20:12","slug":"modis-fragile-balancing-act-indias-democratic-erosion-its-geopolitical-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/modis-fragile-balancing-act-indias-democratic-erosion-its-geopolitical-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Modi\u2019s Fragile Balancing Act: India\u2019s Democratic Erosion & Its Geopolitical Dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Asanga Abeyagoonasekera<\/a> –<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Asanga Abeygoonasekera<\/p><\/div>\n

A shadow of discord crept to form a year ago\u00a0between the United States and India, ignited by whispers of an assassination plot<\/span><\/a><\/span> in New York. The accusations, though improbable, revealed underlying tensions between two purported allies. Not long after, Gautam Adani, a billionaire industrialist and confidant of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, found himself ensnared in controversy. Accused of orchestrating $250 million in bribes<\/span><\/a><\/span> to secure energy contracts, Adani\u2019s empire\u2014once touted as a cornerstone of India\u2019s economic rise\u2014faced an unrelenting reckoning.<\/p>\n

What followed was a predictable symphony of denial. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lashed out, accusing Washington’s \u201cdeep state<\/span><\/a><\/span>\u201d of plotting to destabilize India. Baseless claims filled the air, portraying not defiance but fragility. Modi, once celebrated as a master of geopolitical navigation, now appeared increasingly insulated by propaganda, drifting further from democratic principles he once professed to champion.<\/p>\n

The accusation of foreign conspiracy served dual purposes. Domestically, it aimed to stifle dissent, branding opposition voices as pawns of external machinations. Internationally, it sought to pivot toward Donald Trump, a figure who shares Modi\u2019s proclivity for invoking unseen enemies to galvanize political support. Yet such strategies carry inherent risks. Silencing dissent stirs unease both within and beyond India\u2019s borders, raising alarms over the nation\u2019s democratic trajectory. For Western powers, this divergence raises a stark and uncomfortable question: Can a leader undermining democracy at home remain a credible partner in defending it abroad?<\/p>\n

This question reverberates through diplomatic corridors, haunting and unresolved.<\/p>\n

In its defense, the BJP leaned on familiar tropes, accusing the Congress party of weaponizing the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). References to George Soros and the US Agency for International Development enriched a narrative that painted OCCRP as a puppet of foreign agendas. \u201cA media tool for the deep state<\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u201d declared BJP spokesperson Sambit Patra, in a claim both dramatic and tenuous. Yet the specter of Soros extends beyond rhetoric. \u201cKeep away from Soros,\u201d an Indian officer warned me earlier this year, his tone laced with urgency and suspicion. This undercurrent of anxiety reflects a broader narrative of fear that pervades India\u2019s political discourse. Was Soros truly orchestrating these expos\u00e9s? Even think tanks in Southeast Asia, found themselves entangled in similar whispers of influence.<\/p>\n

Still, as C. Raja Mohan noted<\/span><\/a><\/span>, the India-US relationship remains steadfast, anchored by nearly $200 billion in trade and a shared urgency to contain China\u2019s ascendancy in the Indo-Pacific. Military agreements and defense collaborations provide stability in an otherwise turbulent partnership. But these bonds are not invulnerable. Modi\u2019s drift toward authoritarianism risks eroding the trust that underpins this alliance, casting doubt on India\u2019s reliability as a democratic bulwark in the region.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s strategic importance is undeniable. It plays a pivotal role in implementing the prescriptions of the\u00a0Indian Ocean Region Strategic Review Act of 2024<\/i><\/span><\/a><\/span>, which explicitly calls for cooperating with the governments of Indian Ocean region countries on security challenges. Yet, even as Trump 2.0 signals a renewed focus on this strategy, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Modi\u2019s internal misadventures, which undermine democratic norms, complicate efforts to expand alliances and strengthen regional partnerships. The backdrop of a potential recalibration in US strategy toward China only adds to this complexity, as Washington may find it increasingly difficult to reconcile its democratic ideals with India\u2019s authoritarian drift.<\/p>\n

Amid this uncertainty, Donald Trump extended an olive branch to Beijing, inviting President Xi Jinping to his inauguration<\/span><\/a><\/span>. Though declined, the gesture marked a recalibration in the great-power dynamic\u2014a quiet acknowledgment of India\u2019s vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Harmeet Dhillon, a prominent figure in Trump\u2019s administration, emerged as a vocal critic of Modi\u2019s policies. Appointed to lead the Justice Department\u2019s civil rights division, Dhillon did not mince words: \u201cIndia has sent death squads to target North American Sikhs outspoken on civil and human rights in Punjab<\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u201d she declared. Her criticism extended to the Biden administration\u2019s perceived inaction, calling for a stronger stance on human rights. Dhillon\u2019s appointment signals a significant shift in Washington\u2019s approach to Modi. While the Biden administration\u2019s quiet tolerance allowed room for ambiguity, Trump 2.0 promises sharper edges. Sikh separatism, Modi\u2019s heavy-handed governance, and their reverberations across India\u2019s neighborhood will likely create new fault lines. The once-unshakable US-India relationship now finds itself at a precarious crossroads.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s predicament grows more complex as it navigates an evolving global landscape. The Indo-Pacific strategy, critical to counterbalancing China, relies heavily on India\u2019s cooperation. However, Modi\u2019s domestic policies\u2014marked by democratic backsliding\u2014raise doubts about his ability to uphold the values central to this partnership. Crushing dissent and invoking foreign conspiracies may serve short-term political goals but risk long-term damage to India\u2019s credibility on the world stage. For the United States, this poses a profound dilemma. Can it continue to embrace India as a strategic partner while overlooking its democratic erosion? Or will the shifting tectonics of global power necessitate a recalibration, one that holds Modi\u2019s government accountable for its contradictions?<\/p>\n

As Trump prepares to chart a new course in US-China relations, Modi\u2019s India teeters on the edge of irrelevance, caught between internal discord and external expectations. The fragility of its democracy, once a source of strength, now threatens to undermine its standing in the very alliances it seeks to uphold. In the grand theater of geopolitics, the stakes have never been higher, and the cost of missteps never more profound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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