![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/basil-colombotelegraph.jpeg\" "\\"Basil")
<\/a>The President and his senior advisor Basil Rajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion, and enticements to cobble together a bare majority in parliament.<\/p><\/div>\n
The ambassador Blake wrote \u201cPresident Rajapaksa’s strategy of assuring himself a majority by wooing crossovers and reshaping his cabinet has stirred up a hornet’s nest. Rather than proceeding smoothly by welcoming in the disaffected UNPers, large swathes within each of the major political parties now feel alienated. The President and his senior advisor Basil Rajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion, and enticements to cobble together a bare majority in parliament. Not to succeed at this point would send a signal of weakness and result in a great loss of face.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Colombo Telegraph found the related leaked cable from the WikiLeak database. The cable classified as \u201cCONFIDENTIAL\u201d analyses UNP internal crisis and Karu Jayasuriya led cross over. The cable was written on January 25, 2007 by the US Ambassador to Colombo Robert O. Blake under the subject -SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT STRUGGLING IN ATTEMPT TO WOO CROSSOVERS.<\/strong><\/p>\n Under the subheading \u201cUNP DISSIDENTS RESIST RANIL’S OVERTURES\u201d ambassador Blake wrote \u201cA meeting between UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and his intra-party critic Karu Jayasuriya was unsuccessful in resolving the UNP rift. Embassy has learned that Jayasuriya’s supporters (including his son-in-law, Navin Dissanayake) put pressure on Karu not to cave in to Wickremesinghe’s “delaying tactics” (promises on overdue party reforms). The dissident group — at least those in line for ministerial posts — are reportedly insisting the crossovers go forward as planned. However, the would-be defectors have failed to deliver enough colleagues to assure the present and his camp a workable majority, making the entire move a questionable exercise for the Rajapaksa team.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cPresident Rajapaksa’s cabinet restructuring, expected during the astrologically “auspicious time” between January 23-25, has yet to be announced, leading to rampant rumors and confusion across the political spectrum. Initially, most analysts expected a group of “reformist” dissidents in the major opposition United National Party (UNP) to accept ministerial posts, thereby endangering the MoU between the UNP and the governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). Currently, sources in the UNP tell us less than 12 party members will take cabinet positions, while many remain unsatisfied with the portfolios offered.\u201d he further wrote.<\/p>\n Under the subheading \u201cTRIAL BALLOON FOR RANIL AS PM PROBABLY NOT SERIOUS\u201d ambassador Blake wrote \u201cdding to the confusion over the UNP’s position, on January 24 papers quoted UNP Secretary-General Tissa Attanayake as welcoming Telecommunications Minister D.M. Jayaratne’s recent suggestion that Wickremesinghe be named prime minister. However, this is probably not a serious proposal that has the President’s backing. We think it unlikely Rajapaksa will bypass his party loyalists to appoint opposition leader Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister — which would put Ranil next in line under the constitution to succeed the president. Wickremesinghe will almost certainly react to senior UNP talent breaking party ranks by moving to exclude them from the party. However, the dissidents can appeal an expulsion to the Supreme Court, which has invalidated several expulsions in the past. This will keep the pot boiling for at least several weeks after the crossovers happen.\u201d<\/p>\n Below we give\u00a0the relevant part of the confidential cable;<\/p>\n Other\u00a0cables\u00a0related to the UNP leadership\u00a0crisis;<\/p>\n WikiLeaks: Karu said he and his colleagues will be named\u00a0ministers<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n WikiLeaks:Since Karu had openly expressed a lack of confidence in Ranil, resuming deputy party leader was not likely to come\u00a0up<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n WikiLeaks: President Rajapaksa is courting the UNP \u2013 Karu to\u00a0US<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":2797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,1,63,27],"tags":[1139,1635,1135,1636,1637,1298,1638,1639,1263],"class_list":["post-2791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-anti-corruption","category-news","category-politics-2","category-wikileaks","tag-democracy","tag-karu-jayasuriya-crossover","tag-mahinda-rajapakse","tag-ranil-wickremesinghe-leadership","tag-slfp-unp-mou","tag-sri-lankans-in-wikileaks","tag-unp-dissidents","tag-unp-internal-crisis","tag-us-embassy-cables-on-sri-lanka"],"yoast_head":"\nC O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000152\r\n\r\nSIPDIS\r\n\r\nSIPDIS\r\n\r\nDEPARTMENT FOR SCA\/INS\r\nMCC FOR S GROFF, D NASSIRY, E BURKE AND F REID\r\n\r\nE.O. 12958: DECL: 01\/19\/2017\r\nTAGS: PGOV<\/a> PREL<\/a> CE<\/a>\r\nSUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT STRUGGLING IN ATTEMPT TO WOO\r\nCROSSOVERS\r\n\r\nREF: A) COLOMBO 130 B) COLOMBO 115 (AND PREVIOUS)\r\n\r\nClassified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).\r\n\r\n\u00b6<\/a>1. (C) SUMMARY: President Rajapaksa has yet to announce his\r\nanticipated cabinet reshuffle, leading to confusion and\r\nspeculation in the media and among our political contacts.\r\nThe Rajapaksa team is struggling to eke out a bare majority\r\nof the parliamentary seats. Both the governing Sri Lanka\r\nFreedom Party (SLFP) and major opposition United National\r\nParty (UNP) face serious internal rifts as some UNP\r\ndissidents prepare to take government ministerial posts.\r\nForeign Minister Samaraweera has come out publicly against\r\nthe crossover strategy, and in favor of continuing\r\ncooperation with the UNP under the MoU. The Marxist,\r\nSinhalese chauvinist JVP has threatened to end its support\r\nfrom outside the government for Rajapaksa if the government\r\ntakes in three \"federalist\" UNP MPs. The Sri Lanka Muslim\r\nCongress (SLMC) is continuing discussions with the government\r\non cooperation, with some of its members complaining of\r\nintense pressure to fall in line. End summary.\r\n\r\nUNP DISSIDENTS RESIST RANIL'S OVERTURES\r\n---------------------------------------\r\n\r\n\u00b6<\/a>2. (C) President Rajapaksa's cabinet restructuring, expected\r\nduring the astrologically \"auspicious time\" between January\r\n23-25, has yet to be announced, leading to rampant rumors and\r\nconfusion across the political spectrum. Initially, most\r\nanalysts expected a group of \"reformist\" dissidents in the\r\nmajor opposition United National Party (UNP) to accept\r\nministerial posts, thereby endangering the MoU between the\r\nUNP and the governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).\r\nCurrently, sources in the UNP tell us less than 12 party\r\nmembers will take cabinet positions, while many remain\r\nunsatisfied with the portfolios offered.\r\n\r\n\u00b6<\/a>3. (C) A meeting between UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and\r\nhis intra-party critic Karu Jayasuriya was unsuccessful in\r\nresolving the UNP rift (ref A). Embassy has learned that\r\nJayasuriya's supporters (including his son-in-law, Navin\r\nDissanayake) put pressure on Karu not to cave in to\r\nWickremesinghe's \"delaying tactics\" (promises on overdue\r\nparty reforms). The dissident group -- at least those in\r\nline for ministerial posts -- are reportedly insisting the\r\ncrossovers go forward as planned. However, the would-be\r\ndefectors have failed to deliver enough colleagues to assure\r\nthe present and his camp a workable majority, making the\r\nentire move a questionable exercise for the Rajapaksa team.\r\n\r\nTRIAL BALLOON FOR RANIL AS PM PROBABLY NOT SERIOUS\r\n--------------------------------------------- -----\r\n\r\n\u00b6<\/a>4. (C) Adding to the confusion over the UNP's position, on\r\nJanuary 24 papers quoted UNP Secretary-General Tissa\r\nAttanayake as welcoming Telecommunications Minister D.M.\r\nJayaratne's recent suggestion that Wickremesinghe be named\r\nprime minister. However, this is probably not a serious\r\nproposal that has the President's backing. We think it\r\nunlikely Rajapaksa will bypass his party loyalists to appoint\r\nopposition leader Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister -- which\r\nwould put Ranil next in line under the constitution to\r\nsucceed the president. Wickremesinghe will almost certainly\r\nreact to senior UNP talent breaking party ranks by moving to\r\nexclude them from the party. However, the dissidents can\r\nappeal an expulsion to the Supreme Court, which has\r\ninvalidated several expulsions in the past. This will keep\r\nthe pot boiling for at least several weeks after the\r\ncrossovers happen.\r\n\u00b6<\/a>8. (C) COMMENT: President Rajapaksa's strategy of assuring\r\nhimself a majority by wooing crossovers and reshaping his\r\ncabinet has stirred up a hornet's nest. Rather than\r\nproceeding smoothly by welcoming in the disaffected UNPers,\r\nlarge swathes within each of the major political parties now\r\nfeel alienated. The President and his senior advisor Basil\r\nRajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion,\r\nand enticements to cobble together a bare majority in\r\nparliament. Not to succeed at this point would send a signal\r\nof weakness and result in a great loss of face. But support\r\nfor the President will be brittle at best, not least because\r\nof the rough tactics Basil has tried to employ. The most\r\nlikely casualty of the current political tempest is the\r\nSLFP-UNP MoU, which held out the prospect of a broadly based\r\n\"southern consensus\" on a devolution proposal to drive the\r\npeace process forward.\r\nBLAKE<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"