{"id":37403,"date":"2012-04-06T16:50:45","date_gmt":"2012-04-06T16:50:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=37403"},"modified":"2012-04-18T19:28:52","modified_gmt":"2012-04-18T19:28:52","slug":"saying-et-tu-singh-is-it-fair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/saying-et-tu-singh-is-it-fair\/","title":{"rendered":"Saying \u201cEt tu Singh!\u201d – Is It fair?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0\u00a0Austin Fernando<\/a>\u00a0–<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Austin Fernando<\/p><\/div>\n

Parliamentarian Mahinda Rajapaksa was a rights defender. Among political demands during \u2018Pada Yathra\u2019 he led, were two, i.e.: (1) Premadasa Regime should take responsibility for the disappearances taken place (2) implementing a peace solution instead of warring. \u00a0Ironically and unfortunately, inGenevaPresident Rajapaksa\u2019s representatives battled against similar international demands, under different environments.<\/p>\n

At home political parties made different interpretations on Geneva Debacle.Colombowalls were pasted with anti-American posters; anti-Indian cartoons were in plenty. Baffled ministerial mindsets were worse than posters.<\/p>\n

Minister GL Peiris was varied of implementing LLRC recommendations. Minister Lakshman Yapa interpreted it as \u2018personal\u2019 to Minister Peiris. Republican Congresswoman Ros Lehtinen\u2019s statement on UNHRC \u2013i.e. a \u201crogue\u2019s gallery\u201d- was used by Minister Peiris to project Democrat President Obama\u2019s government\u2019s stand. Arguably, sans ridicule, he may be suggesting that President Rajapaksa should implement LLRC recommendations in total, because UNP demands it!<\/p>\n

Ministers Weerawansa and Ranawaka opposed the LLRC and recommendations. Minister Devananda will challenge the LLRC in Courts. Ministers Gunasekara, Vitharana and Vasudeva demanded implementing LLRC recommendations. Minister Nimal Siripala was interested in \u201cfeasible recommendations\u201d for implementation. Minister Mervyn Silva correctly confirmed theGenevaallegations of violating media freedom. \u00a0Collective Cabinet Responsibility at its best!<\/p>\n

Defense Secretary was reported saying inJapan: \u201cGovernment andSri Lankais fully committed to the implementation of the recommendations of the LLRC\u201d which I pray is the official position, over all the above stances.<\/p>\n

India<\/strong> and Geneva Resolution<\/strong><\/p>\n

India\u2019s possible stance on the GR was notified ten days ahead of voting by Minister SM Krishna: ”The Centre will take into account the overall relationship between India and Sri Lanka \u2026.\u201d in deciding to back the resolution. Did this covertly mean that the \u2018overall relationships\u2019 have deteriorated andIndiaexpectedSri Lanka\u2019s positive corrective responses before the D-Day.<\/p>\n

Contrarily, did Sri Lankamisconstrue that everything was fine with internationals- including India? \u00a0Indian PM\u2019s statement before UNHRC voting— a \u201cshock\u201d to Minister Peiris- was more destabilizing. Most likely he had not seen the above quote and the letter to him from Minister Krishna on March 15th<\/sup>, which indicated important Indian concerns. Anyway, the Indian PM\u2019s statement guided the \u2018decided\u2019 to glue their support; the \u2018undecided\u2019 to shift their stances; and, \u2018some pro-Sri Lankan countries\u2019 to abstain.<\/p>\n

HadSri Lankawon, we would have seen carnivals on streets; but,New Delhito loseColombo. And, the Indian GR supporters would have blood-sucked Indian PM for \u2018bungling bilateral ties\u2019 withSri Lanka.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, knowingRussiasupportedSri Lanka, behind its backIndiasupported the GR, though they were even developing a civilian nuclear deal. This was the Indian commitment to the GR.<\/p>\n

Why did Indian government boldly take this risk, which as Economic Times said would provokeSri Lankaexercising options to provide more space to rivals likePakistanandChina?<\/p>\n

Ministers Dulles Alahapperuma and Lakshman Yapa reasoned internal political compulsions for Indian behavior. Was it the only reason? I believe there were others, in addition to Chief Minister Jeyalalitha\u2019s cry to \u2018punishSri Lanka.\u2019<\/p>\n

During GR discussions some cautioned of similar future UN interventions on states. It was proved right within days when UN askedIndiato repeal the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, saying it has no role in a democracy. Such may affectIndiaas direct fallout of the GR, denying shield under protest of \u201ccountry specific\u201d decisions.<\/p>\n

The dispassionate attempt here is to analyze other probabilities, hoping to alleviate these deteriorations in the future, because the ball game cannot be over yet, and can surface in 2013, if not played according to rules.<\/p>\n

Ceremonial Address and Tamil focu<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>For internationals words are deeds and deeds are words. Hence, let\u2019s draw attention to President Rajapaksa\u2019s Ceremonial Address to the Parliament on May 19th<\/sup> 2009.<\/p>\n

To his credit President Rajapaksa humanitarianly and apolitically then said that we should live as children of one mother, without discriminations; the \u2018war\u2019 was against the LTTE, not against the Tamils. He claimed that it aimed at liberating Tamils from LTTE clutches, and it was his responsibility and duty to protect the Tamils. He wished the Sri Lankans should live in safety without fear and suspicion, enjoying equal rights and should be united to build the nation. These great sentiments provoked international expectations, qualifying President Rajapaksa to be a Nelson Mandela.<\/p>\n

When these did not reach expected performance levels, internationals queried; cajoled; threatened with the Darusman Report.Sri Lankaresponded: \u201cWait until our LLRC produces its recommendations.\u201d The report was released in mid-December 2011. Now, if government disowns the LLRC, it disowns its tongue and conscience<\/p>\n

In March 2012, the internationals tabled their deep frustrations. We remember among others like Assistant Secretary Robert Blake and American experts, very senior Indian dignitaries (i.e. Messers Krishna, Menon, Madam Nirupama Rao) visiting us, purportedly to monitor Indian projects like housing, railways and assistance to the displaced, as if Ambassador Ashok Kantha, an amiable \/ senior diplomat was incompetent to coordinate, which is a wrong assumption! He proved his metal by 22nd<\/sup> March 2012. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Ceremonial Address and Indian Sentiments<\/strong><\/p>\n

DidIndiavote againstSri Lankahaving observed the slow fruition of these expressed sentiments? Or, did it adjudge future performance based on the expressed negative responses in implementing the LLRC\u2019s \u2018interim recommendations\u2019?<\/p>\n

Indiapursued post-war presidential aspirations (May 2009) for three years. Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) orchestrated them as: (1) urge Sri Lankan Government to conduct a broader dialogue, (2) exhibit concrete movement towards devolution, (i.e. implementation of the 13th Amendment+), (3) carry forward accountability measures and promote human rights, as committed for genuine reconciliation between all communities- minority Tamils included.<\/p>\n

Indian PM repeating MEA concerns stated in Parliament the need to (1) implement LLRC recommendations which Indians considered as constructive measures to heal the wounds of the conflict and fostering lasting peace and reconciliation. (2) stand by its commitment towards pursuing a political process through a broader dialogue with all, including the TNA (3) the full implementation of the 13th Amendment to achieve meaningful devolution and genuine national reconciliation.<\/p>\n

The responses from Sri Lankawere not so encouraging- before \/ after the GR. Some ministers openly criticized the LLRC recommendations. The TNA negotiations were dragging on. All-party involvement through a broader dialogue was negated by forgotten APRC proposals; and, finally sealed-off by Minister Nimal Siripala dropping Opposition participation for GR implementation. Ministerial statements on devolution were and are mostly negative. Probably due to these the President was at variance on devolution and sometimes acted in a way, which the proud South Block bureaucracy would consider \u2018snobbish\u2019. Would these responses create understanding? <\/strong><\/p>\n

What went wrong?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Some say it was due to lacking performance. There is dissension of opinion on performances. Internationals opined that performance fell short, though the Indian PM inked satisfaction in his latest communication. Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa listed many positives. Or, may be as President pointed out at a media event, government performances would not have been adequately disseminated. In fairness to the government, it withdrew some provisions in the Emergency Regulations, undertook resettlement, developed infrastructure, and rehabilitated large number of LTTE cadres in custody. These were also Tamilnadu political concerns. Still it went wrong. Why?<\/p>\n

Was it a reaction to the political demands of Chief Minister Jeyalalitha and other Tamilnadu leaders? Was it due to State Secretary Hilary Clinton personally meeting CM Jeyalalitha- months before? \u00a0Or Madam Sonia Gandhi\u2019s sympathy to the way Prabhakaran\u2019s son had been killed? PM Manmohan Singh<\/a>, though did \u00a0not state in his latest communication to President Rajapaksa, told the Parliament \u00a0that India was `inclined’ to back the\u00a0UNHRC<\/a>\u00a0resolution due to domestic political pressures.<\/p>\n

This \u2018backing\u2019 came at a point when Rahul Gandhi suffered defeat in Uttar Pradesh elections.\u00a0Fertilizing similar negative situation in the South, dashing on ground future hopes of Rahul Gandhi and Congress, could be mitigated by supporting Tamilnadu demands. Was this the long term strategy articulated by Sonia Gandhi?<\/p>\n

\u00a0For the first time in decades,New Delhiwas in concord with Tamilnadu popular sentiments, but I do not see itsGeneva\u201cAye\u201d only as a domestic pressure byproduct.<\/p>\n

After the GR, Indian PM said “We don’t want to infringe onSri Lanka’s sovereignty but our concerns should be expressed so that Tamils get justice and dignity”, which tallied with President Rajapaksa\u2019s expressed aspirations in his Ceremonial Address. The Indian MEA towed the same line. Whether it was excusing, restating or real could be seen if UNHRC pressure is onSri Lankaagain.<\/p>\n

What happened inGenevahas happened leaving other worries due to competition among Tamilnadu politicians, on behalf of Sri Lankan Tamils! For example, CM Jeyalalitha wishes to over-echo former CM Karunanidhi\u2019s and vice versa, for political supremacy. To gain larger Tamil support they should cry out louder, beat their chests- non-stop! IfSri Lankafalls short of implementing the GR, louder noises will echo, and Tamilnadu politicians will continue pressurizingNew Delhi. For parliamentary political survivalNew Delhimay oblige and pressure the UNHRC. On Indian pressure internationals may try to strangleSri Lankaby offering technical support through UNHRC; of course, after \u2018consultation\u2019 and obtaining \u2018concurrence\u2019. IfSri Lankaagrees to accommodate UNHRC expertise, there will be larger noises here. If refused, internationals drafting the next resolution will commence immediately! This is a vicious circle. It could be the potential adverse game-plan upon failure and henceSri Lankashould act cautiously.<\/p>\n

The GR could produce far-reaching implications on India-Sri Lanka ties, especially withChinaincreasing its clout onColombo. As Advisor G. Parthasarathy said \u201cIndiawas left with best of the bad bargain\u201d; because she was the isolated supporter of the GR from the Asian neighborhood. According toParthasarathy,Indiahas diluted the earlier intrusive character of theUSresolution, by incorporatingSri Lanka\u2019s \u201cconcurrence\u201d before intervening. Will this satisfy President Rajapaksa? No.<\/p>\n

Fun was made inColomboof this \u201chelp\u201d; one even quoting \u201cEt tu Brutus?\u201d (Thou too Brutus?), leaving readers to replace \u201cBrutus\u201d with \u201cSingh!\u201d \u00a0Cartoonists caricatured Indian PM- a \u201cdeceiver\u201d, \u201cstabber in the back\u201d \u201cAmerican lackey\u201d!<\/p>\n

Chinese factor<\/strong><\/p>\n

India’s action may diplomatically benefitChina. To what extent? Groundviews quippingChina\u2019s shadowy diplomacy said \u201c\u2026.However, what is clear is thatChinahas a direct interest in the perpetuation of the Rajapaksa family\u2019s hold on power, for no other reason perhaps than the sense that a Ranil Wickremesinghe led regime will be more disposed to friendly relations with the West.\u201d\u00a0 If true, this is not only Indian \/USpolitics, as stated by Russians. Chinese politics too. No wonder Regime Perpetuation Vs: Regime Change scenario was created by politicians themselves!<\/p>\n

It continued \u201cthat with India now appearing to take a position critical of Sri Lanka, China will remain conscious of the reputational costs of propping up\u201d an isolated country and that China has a direct interest in preventing a pitched battle between the West and Sri Lanka, not least in the Security Council where China possesses a veto power. Thus,Chinamay well quietly nudge the Sri Lankan government towards greater engagement with the West, it said. Will it? If it happens, loss ofIndiawill be compensated byChina-\u2018the middleman\u2019, if the west prefers Chinese middleman status overIndia. This is intricate politics.<\/p>\n

There is no permanency of stances as observed form how Russians changed over within ten days, as seen from the stance she took on GR in Geneva, a few days later by the Russian Ambassador in New Delhi, which later differed by the Russian Ambassador in Colombo showing how political wordings change. Can this occur withChinatoo?<\/p>\n

Another analysis could be that Indian stand proved that it has outgrown its misplaced fear of the growing regional presence ofChina. Supporting the GR could be an Indian signal to us: \u201cYou have your own way withChina. We are not bothered!\u201d I wish it is not the intention because that could jeopardize the regional political scenario.\u00a0 Will Chinese dragon paws demonize the Indian threat and become our imminent savior? Contrarily, will this consequently pushSri Lankamore towardsChina, or encourage acting cautiously withIndia, because the latter could make things uneasy forSri Lanka, as already done inGeneva.<\/p>\n

However, Gen A.S. Kalkat, who led the IPKF inSri Lanka, has cautioned thatIndianeeds to proactively engageSri Lankato ensure that the Chinese don’t gain an upper hand. “There are strategic security concerns. We can’t afford to let the Chinese have an overwhelming presence inSri Lanka.Sri Lankais critically important to our maritime security,\u201d Gen Kalkat told IANS.\u00a0\u00a0 Kalkat felt much will depend on howIndiamends fences withSri Lankaafter the vote and concurrently encourage it to deliver on key devolution proposals of the 13th Amendment. This is sane thinking, which should be sustained with caution, also bySri Lanka, considering the strategic advantages.<\/p>\n

Another expert, Brahma Chellaney argued: “It allows us (Indians<\/em>) to pursue a policy based on self-interest and principle. It allows us to unfreeze our Sri Lanka policy because President Mahinda Rajapaksa was playing India against China to keep the former in line. As a result, the Indian policy on Sri Lanka became frozen.\u00a0Now, he finds himself in the company of China which, in a way, exposes him.” Well knowing that China would stand with Sri Lanka, Chellaney arrogantly hailed this development as positive, as “it will allow India to pursue a more assertive and clear-headed policy driven by our (Indian) <\/em>national interest.”\u00a0 He did not feel any adverse impact befalling on India’s ties with Colombo, as China has built relationships with Sri Lanka despite India bending over backwards to accommodate and protect President Rajapaksa.<\/p>\n

The Hindu\u2019 interpretations<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Hindu straightforwardly said that the adoption of GR is proof that the international community disapproves the manner in whichSri Lankaaddressed the post war fallout. \u00a0While confirming Parthasarathy on tweaking words by introducingSri Lanka’s \u201cconcurrence\u201d to intervene, Hindu advised against misreading this concession. It cautioned that GR \u201cis the first real sign that the world will no more let itself be guided solely by Sri Lankan claims that it has the will to carry out its own probe.\u201d\u00a0 This vehemently contradicts current thinking inColombothat the internationals shouldn\u2019t intervene.<\/p>\n

Hindu harped onSri Lankataking time to acknowledge the allegations of extra-judicial killings, disappearances and delayed moves towards a political settlement. It lamented, \u201cUltimately, its own LLRC came out with some constructive recommendations\u201d which were not pursued and stated: \u201c\u2026.the false assurances on devolution and implementation of the 13th amendment and beyond\u201d received fromColombohave frustrated the South Block and forced reconsidering its diplomatic options. Hindu appeared snubbingSri Lankafor making Minister Krishna a \u201cliar\u201d! WhileSri Lankaharped on Northern Spring, infrastructure development, LTTE cadre rehabilitation, Hindu focused on rights and political solutions. The horoscopes were not tallying, and divorce was imminent!<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Hindu also advisedIndia: \u201cHaving voted for the resolution, the onus is now onIndiato remain engaged with the Lankan authorities, as its interests lie in promoting reconciliation and supporting the quest of Tamil Sri Lankans for justice, equality and dignity. The solution has to be Lankan-led. Persistent emphasis on accountability from outside may jeopardize the larger goal of reconciliation by giving a fresh thrust to Sinhala nationalism.\u201d\u00a0 This fits with some pro–government statements heard recently. Accordingly,Indianeeds caution and readjustment in addition to exhibited courage to act againstSri Lanka.<\/p>\n

Ceremonial Address and some unfulfilled aspirations<\/strong><\/p>\n

With these international reasoning, there seems to exist thinking gaps between the President, who rightly believes that Sri Lankans still enjoy wiping out Prabhakaran and President Obama, Prime Ministers Cameron, Manmohan Singh and UN\u2019s Ban-ki-Moon who expect more constructiveness. Concurrently, President Rajapaksa\u2019s reluctance to implement some promises (e.g. devolution) would have eased internationals to justify their stances.<\/p>\n

The President saying in the Ceremonial Address \u201cAt this victorious moment, it is necessary for us to state with great responsibility, that we do not accept <\/strong>a military solution as the final solution\u201d was reassured four days later in the communiqu\u00e9 with Ban ki Moon. \u00a0He further said \u201cAs much as we defeated deadly terrorism and freed the innocent people held by terror, we are committed to carry out accelerated development in the areas that were under terrorism, within the next three years.\u201dIndia may be sometimes querying the achievements during the stipulated time frame.<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cWhile bringing the lives of the people within a democratic political structure, the government will also provide education and health facilities, and launch the Northern Spring by providing the infrastructure.\u201d The latter happened, but unfortunately the political arrangements remained unachieved.<\/p>\n

The presidential statement \u201cIt is necessary that we give to these people the freedoms that are the right of people in all others parts of our country.\u00a0 Similarly, it is necessary that the political solutions they need should be brought closer to them faster than any country or government in the world would bring\u201d is challenged by India and the TNA due to delay. When he said that he did not \u201chave the time to be experimenting with the solutions suggested by other countries\u201d one would have expected implementation of the 13th<\/sup> Amendment or the APRC or LLRC recommendations, which were already in hand. Though he boasted of finding a \u201cnative\u201d solution,India turned its back after a long wait- most probably considering he was dragging.<\/p>\n

President\u2019s appreciation of the internationals was on assistance \u201cgiven on behalf of world democracy\u201d because ending terrorism here was a victory for world\u2019s democracy.\u00a0 Is not this also the internationals\u2019 demand?<\/p>\n

He added the need to direct Sri Lankato a new era of national revival.\u00a0 He promised a meaningful life to the people of the north and east who were denied the right to life, freedom and development \u2013 the new challenge- for which he accepted the responsibility and expected the fullest cooperation of parliamentarians, Ministers and people. <\/strong>To what extent hasSri Lanka achieved this promise? How far has he received the cooperation from the stakeholders? Has rhetoric overtaken sensible thinking in Government and Opposition politicians- especially the TNA? How far can the government consider international interventions as unsuspected genuine exercises? Unless all these stakeholders commit in the GR it could be a piece of paper only. If failed, it could be the foundation for the next international trap.\u00a0It demands formation of a counter strategy.<\/p>\n

Counting the non-GR factors<\/strong><\/p>\n

Many isolate the GR to judge Indiaviz. the USA. It is not fair because economic ties between them are robust and vibrant. To quote one: the latest investment conference was held in WashingtonDCon March 22nd<\/sup> 2012, i.e. \u201cInvesting inAmerica: Contributions by the Indian IT Sector\u201d to consider expanding all-round mutual business relationships. \u00a0Studying how CEPA or Mutur coal power plant orPalkBay fishermen issues were addressed or implementing 50,000 houses scheme proceeded may remind us the comparative cooperation extended toIndia. Do those experiences bringIndia closer to us than to theUSA?<\/p>\n

Also with China, Indiahas large economic ties. For example, on March 29th<\/sup> 2012 inNew Delhi at the BRICS SummitChina was represented by Chinese President Hu Jintao andIndia by PM Manohan Singh. They discussed multilateral banking to compete the World Bank and IMF, promoting trade and currency issues, criticizing Western world\u2019s pressure tactics on\u00a0other countries (e.g. Iran)- slapping the USA \/ EU, foreign policy and bilateral cooperation. In that backdrop do not the Sri Lankan issues become mundane? Will emerging mutual economic ties finally bring cooperation betweenChina andIndia, rather than confrontations and lead to \u201cnudging\u201dSri Lanka, as stated earlier?<\/p>\n

Quoting another: I extract from International Crisis Group, which suggested that whatever President Rajapaksa tries for reconciliation will probably be judged inadequate by theUS(Bad luck!)\u2013 until he is enticed into a process of reconciliation that places India\u2019s good offices, and its ability to manage the Tamil brief more effectively than Sri Lanka. It said \u201cIronically, it may beChina\u2019s contribution to the destruction of the Tamil Tigers that opens the door toNew Delhi\u2019s return to a position of significant influence inSri Lankaand a decline inBeijing\u2019s clout.\u201d Will BRICS become the catalyst?<\/p>\n

Latest had been the green light given by CM Jeyalalitha last week to commission the Koodankulam Nuclear Plant, thoughSri Lankahas showed its concerns against nuclear emergencies. I wish there was no GR fallout for this decision.<\/p>\n

Sri Lankashould be mindful of these strategic deviations too.<\/p>\n

Compromises?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Take for example Gen. Kalkat or Hindu editorial or Economic Times ; all adviseIndiato be cautious of the GR outfall and Indian PM must be seeing it through the same lenses. Similarly think of the calamities that could happen to us due to broken down relationships in the region. They can be adverse.<\/p>\n

I only wish President Rajapaksa\u2019s appreciative\u00a0 statement \u201cOur neighbors are Indians. I always say, Indians are our relations\u201d still linger in his mind, irrespective of the GR, and he will not say \u201cEt tu Singh!\u201d By conversion into adverse relationships, I wish Indian PM too will not be forced to say \u201cEt tu Mahinda!\u201d He should be saying \u201cOur neighbors are Sri Lankans. I always say, Sri Lankans are our relations!\u201d<\/p>\n

After the vote Minister Peiris charged thatGenevavoting was determined not by the merits of a particular issue, but by strategic alliances and domestic political issues. If admitted as true, the corrective response is in this statement itself.Sri Lankahas to upgrade merit of its issues, create strategic alliances, and be positive on domestic political issues, rather than being rhetoric and short-sighted.<\/p>\n

Therefore, it may be appropriate for bothIndiaandSri Lankato rekindle logical strategizing of such relationships for mutual benefits.<\/p>\n

May the above presidential appreciation remain intact.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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