{"id":411,"date":"2011-10-02T08:36:34","date_gmt":"2011-10-02T08:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/colombotelegraph.com\/?p=411"},"modified":"2014-12-27T18:14:13","modified_gmt":"2014-12-27T12:44:13","slug":"wikileaks-race-is-neck-and-neck-rajapaksas-chief-pollster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/wikileaks-race-is-neck-and-neck-rajapaksas-chief-pollster\/","title":{"rendered":"WikiLeaks: \u201cRace Is Neck And Neck\u201d Rajapaksa\u2019s Chief Pollster"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cIn a one to one meeting with Polchief, President Rajapaksa\u2019s chief opinion pollster and close advisor Sunimal Fernando said their polling figures less than a week before the presidential election indicated the race statistically was a dead heat.\u201d US ambassador Patricia A. Butenis wrote in a confidential cable to Washington.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_412\" style=\"width: 360px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/sunimal.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-412\" class=\"size-full wp-image-412\" src=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/sunimal.jpg\" alt=\"Rajapaksa and chief opinion pollster and close advisor Sunimal Fernando\" width=\"350\" height=\"318\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/sunimal.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/sunimal-300x272.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-412\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rajapaksa and chief opinion pollster and close advisor Sunimal Fernando<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Colombo Telegraph found the cable from Wikileaks database. It was classified as \u201cCONFIDENTIAL\u201d by the ambassador Butenis. The cable written in 22<sup>nd<\/sup> January, 2010, under the name \u201c RAJAPAKSA POLLSTER SAYS RACE IS NECK AND NECK\u201d, further says \u201c undecided voters were at an unprecedented 17 percent, with six percent leaning toward Rajapaksa and eleven percent towards Fonseka. Fernando said the President was doing very poorly in the East, mainly due to the corruption issue, but surprising well in the North. In the Western region, which includes Colombo and its suburbs, Fonseka had been doing well in the city (75 to 25 percent) but recently had begun to slip following television interviews and Rajapaksa\u2019s position was stronger in the Colombo suburbs.<\/p>\n<p>Read the full cable;<\/p>\n<pre>C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000047\r\n\r\nSIPDIS\r\n\r\nDEPARTMENT FOR SCA\/INSB\r\n\r\nE.O. 12958: DECL: 01\/22\/2020\r\nTAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE\r\nSUBJECT: RAJAPAKSA POLLSTER SAYS RACE IS NECK AND NECK\r\n\r\nCOLOMBO 00000047  001.2 OF 002\r\n\r\nClassified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS.  REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)\r\n\r\n\u00b61. (C) SUMMARY: President Rajapaksa's chief opinion pollster\r\ntold us their figures and those of the opposition all showed\r\nthe presidential election to be very close.  Undecided voters\r\nwere at an unprecedented 17 percent (six or seven percent\r\nthis close to the election date was more the norm), with six\r\npercent leaning toward Rajapaksa and 11 percent toward\r\nFonseka.  Fernando said the president was doing poorly in the\r\nEast, mainly due to the corruption issue, but surprising well\r\nin the North, where many Tamils were grateful to be free of\r\nLTTE terror.  In Colombo and its environs, the president was\r\ngaining on Fonseka.  Both candidates were jettisoning\r\nnegative messages and focusing on economic prosperity.\r\nFernando observed that election violence -- which he\r\nattributed to both camps -- hurt Fonseka and helped Rajapaksa\r\nbecause when voters got jittery they tended to stick with the\r\nleader they knew, despite his faults.  END SUMMARY.\r\nTOO CLOSE TO CALL\r\n-----------------\r\n\r\n\u00b62. (C) In a one-on-one meeting with PolChief, President\r\nRajapaksa's chief opinion pollster and close advisor Sunimal\r\nFernando said their polling figures less than a week before\r\nthe presidential election indicated the race statistically\r\nwas a dead heat.  Fernando said he was friends with the chief\r\npollsters for the UNP and for SLFP(M) leader and Fonseka\r\nadvisor Mangala Samaraweera, and that the polls of all three\r\n-- which he claimed were the only reliable opinion polls in\r\nthe country -- indicated a close race, with the opposition\r\npollsters showing Fonseka slightly ahead and Fernando showing\r\nRajapaksa slightly ahead.\r\n\r\n\u00b63. (C) Fernando was disappointed that his original plan to\r\nquery 25,000 voters nationwide had taken much longer than\r\nanticipated, partly due to technical glitches.  \"For 1.5\r\nmillion rupees (about 14,000 USD) we could have had the\r\nproper equipment,\" Fernando complained, \"but those idiots\r\n(running the president's campaign) turned it down.\"  The\r\ndelays in completing the survey meant that the results\r\nstretched across different time periods and thus were\r\npotentially inaccurate.  Nevertheless, he was confident that\r\nhis results were not far off from reality, particularly given\r\nthe overlap with opposition results.\r\n\r\nREGIONAL DIFFERENCES SIGNIFICANT\r\n--------------------------------\r\n\r\n\u00b64. (C) Fernando said the president was doing \"very poorly\" in\r\nthe East but \"surprisingly well\" in the North -- both regions\r\nwith large Tamil populations.  He explained the difference as\r\ndue to different expectations and economic-development\r\nlevels.  The Tamils in the North had until recently been\r\nterrorized by the LTTE and were grateful to be liberated.  In\r\nthe East, the war was a more distant memory and economic\r\nquestions overshadowed.  There were many road and other\r\ndevelopment projects in the East, but many of the contracts\r\nwere going to firms from outside the region due to\r\ncorruption.  The locals liked the roads but resented the fact\r\nthat the contracts went to non-locals, and thus they were\r\nanti-Rajapaksa.  With the North still a war-ravaged region,\r\nsuch economic considerations did not come into play.\r\nMoreover, Fernando argued that the Tamil National Alliance's\r\n(TNA) announcement supporting Fonseka had backfired in the\r\nNorth, where many Tamils believed the TNA and India used them\r\nfor their own purposes and did not really look out for their\r\ninterests.  Rajapaksa, at least, had eliminated LTTE terror.\r\n\r\n\u00b65. (C) In the Western region, which includes Colombo and its\r\nsuburbs, the general had been doing very well in the city (75\r\nto 25 percent) but recently had begun to slip following\r\n\r\nCOLOMBO 00000047  002.2 OF 002\r\n\r\ntelevision interviews.  Fernando said the general generally\r\nspoke quite well but interspersed his remarks with extremely\r\ncrude attacks on Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, and\r\nthis coarseness turned off many Colombo sophisticates.\r\nFernando said his wife was a member of a \"very snooty\"\r\nladies' bonzai tree club that had earlier all been for\r\nFonseka but were now evenly split.\r\n\r\n\u00b66. (C) Fernando said Rajapaksa's position was stronger in the\r\nColombo suburbs, home to many newly prosperous business\r\npeople who resented the snobbish attitude of the Colombo --\r\nand generally UNP-leaning -- elite, were particularly strong\r\nBuddhist-Sinhala, and had been JHU (Buddhist monk party)\r\nsupporters in the last election.\r\n\r\nVIOLENCE HELPING RAJAPAKSA\r\n--------------------------\r\n\r\n\u00b67. (C) Interestingly, there was still a large segment of\r\nundecided voters -- 17 percent (a more normal figure so close\r\nto the election date would be six or seven percent).\r\nFernando said that about six percent of undecided voters were\r\nleaning toward the president while 11 percent were leaning\r\ntoward Fonseka.  As the election approached, the campaigns\r\nwere adjusting their strategies.  Fonseka, he said, was\r\nfocusing less on Rajapaksa corruption, which many people saw\r\nas mud-slinging, and more on a positive economic message.\r\nRajapaksa, too, was giving less time to patriotic themes --\r\nwhich Fernando's polls said interested few voters -- and more\r\nto his own economic-prosperity message.\r\n\r\n\u00b68. (C) Fernando said that while the overall figures for\r\nelection violence -- which included trivial matters such as\r\nripping down opponents' posters -- were attributable more to\r\nthe ruling party, the serious figures on assaults and\r\nkillings could be attributed to both camps.  (NOTE: Our\r\nimpression is that while opposition forces have engaged in\r\nserious violence, pro-Rajapaksa forces have probably been\r\nengaging in it more.  END NOTE.)  Fernando argued that the\r\nincrease in serious violence by both camps was on balance\r\nmore detrimental to the Fonseka candidacy.  This was because\r\nFonseka was an unknown entity, and when people became rattled\r\nby news of violence, they became nervous about change and\r\ntended to stick with the leader they knew.  Moreover,\r\naccording to Fernando -- and we have heard this from other\r\nsupporters of the president -- many people were concerned\r\nabout the potential of Fonseka becoming a military dictator\r\nif put in the position of president.\r\n\r\nCOMMENT\r\n-------\r\n\r\n\u00b69. (C) Fernando's reasoning that election violence helped\r\nRajapaksa is worrisome.  Fernando himself seems to us a\r\ndecent man and appeared to be offering this observation as\r\nonly that.  Others in the Rajapaksa camp, however, may take a\r\nmore pro-active view and very well may be stirring up\r\nviolence as a way to scare undecided voters to stick with the\r\ndevil they know, despite his faults.  We took the opportunity\r\nof the meeting to pass on our concerns about violence, as\r\nwell as the importance of a free and fair election, and to\r\nnote that relations with the U.S. and the rest of the\r\ninternational community could be affected adversely by an\r\nelection that went poorly.  We believe Fernando will pass\r\nthis message to the president.\r\nBUTENIS<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,53,1,27],"tags":[1139,1205,1161,1135,1206,1132,1207,1172],"class_list":["post-411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-anti-corruption","category-global-politics","category-news","category-wikileaks","tag-democracy","tag-elections","tag-foreign-affairs","tag-mahinda-rajapakse","tag-presidential-election-2010","tag-sri-lanka","tag-sunimal-fernando","tag-us-embassy-cables"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>WikiLeaks: \u201cRace Is Neck And Neck\u201d Rajapaksa\u2019s Chief Pollster  - 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