{"id":48380,"date":"2012-07-14T20:01:57","date_gmt":"2012-07-14T20:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=48380"},"modified":"2012-07-17T09:03:45","modified_gmt":"2012-07-17T09:03:45","slug":"mafia-gamed-the-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/mafia-gamed-the-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Mafia\u2019 Gamed The Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Namini Wijedasa<\/a>\u00a0–<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Namini Wijedasa<\/p><\/div>\n

From one of the best performing capital markets in the world to one of its worst within two years-what the hell happened to the Colombo Stock Exchange?
\nIt is Newtonian physics, says Thilak Karunarathne, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), dryly: What goes up must come down.
\n\u201cIn 2009, there was euphoria in the country after the war and the market just took off,\u201d Karunarathne explained, seated in his World Trade Centre office with its spectacular view of the ocean. \u201cBut some people made use of the opportunity to pump up some of the so-called penny stocks and made a lot of money on that.\u00a0Actually, it was artificially pushed up.\u201d
\n\u201cSo, when they say that the market went up by so many percentages in 2009 and 2010, and was the world\u2019s best performing market, it isn\u2019t saying very much about it,\u201d he added, \u201cbecause it wasn\u2019t really (based on) the stocks or counters where the fundamentals were strong. They were mostly pump-and dump-stocks; mostly, not all.\u201d
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

When the bubble burst<\/strong><\/p>\n

Naturally, the bubble didn\u2019t last long. \u201cI\u2019m surprised it lasted for two-and-a-half years,\u201d Karunarathne said.\u00a0 This view might be strongly contested in some quarters. But it is not much different to the opinion held by Indrani Sugathadasa, Karunarathne\u2019s predecessor at the SEC. The no-nonsense administrator resigned in December after insisting she \u201cwill not compromise on my principles\u201d.
\n\u201cThere is a strong, powerful mafia which controls and manipulates the whole market,\u201d Sugathadasa said last week, in an interview with this newspaper.\u00a0 \u201cThere is no way for market forces to play without interference. The market can only be resurrected if we let the market forces to play and to let it adjust.\u201d
\nWhat the mafia does, she said, is to manipulate the prices. \u201cIt was obvious, it was proved and SEC also had evidence,\u201d she said. \u201cUnfortunately, SEC could not take any action because of certain loopholes in the Act and some other reasons that I can\u2019t explain to you.\u201d
\nAlthough she is a retired officer of the Sri Lanka Administrative Service with 33 years of experience, Sugathadasa did not know much about the stock exchange when she was made SEC chairperson. \u201cI walked into the SEC with only general knowledge of the capital market but I came out with a vast knowledge, not only about the fundamentals and concepts but about market manipulation and insider dealing,\u201d she said.
\nWhile these malpractices did contribute towards an erosion of investor confidence, the slide of the Colombo Stock Exchange wasn\u2019t exclusively due to insider trading or manipulation\u00a0 Other factors played their part.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still too expensive<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cExternally, a crisis has left Europe with no money to invest anywhere,\u201d Karunarathne pointed out. \u201cEven the fund managers from Europe are now withdrawing their money and going back to their own countries or looking at better markets.\u00a0 Our P\/E (price to earnings) ratio is still hovering around 13. China is only six, Vietnam is five. And Arjuna Mahendra, who is based in Singapore and working in HSBC as its investment advisor, said a few months ago that they will look at Sri Lanka only when the P\/E ratio is down to about eight.\u201d
\nA higher P\/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income; the stock is more expensive compared to one with a lower P\/E ratio. For most fund managers, the SEC chief said, \u201cWe are still overpriced\u201d. But he didn\u2019t agree with this contention because \u201cthere are very good buys at the moment into stocks where the fundamentals are strong but unfortunately the focus is not there\u201d.
\nAmong the internal factors dragging down the market are volatility of the rupee, weak economic parameters and \u201cthe reputation of the market not being properly regulated\u201d. SEC is trying to change this, Karunarathne said-a move that was recently welcomed by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.
\nSugathadasa recalled that, before 2009, \u201cnobody took notice of the stock exchange\u201d. \u201cThere were some blue chip companies and some highly sophisticated investors who traded in stocks but retailers did not see it as lucrative,\u201d she said. When the market did start growing, however, prices were rising so high that they were \u201cabout to hit the ceiling\u201d.
\n\u201cAlso, bank interest rates were going down so the market became attractive to middle class people,\u201d she explained. \u201cThey thought this was the place to put all their money, their pensions, their EPF and everything. From what I learnt during my time at SEC, most of them just invested for the sake of it, to make a profit, without knowing the basic concepts of the stock market.\u201d
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cUnpopular\u201d restrictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

The prices of some stocks were shooting up so dramatically (and clearly not on the basis of fundamentals) that the commission was forced to step in. First, it introduced a 10 percent \u2018price band\u2019 to control price manipulations on weak stocks and to maintain stability in the stock market.
\n\u201cI remember the main reason was that the share prices of one or two companies, very famous to play in or manipulate the market, went from nine rupees to 100 rupees overnight!\u201d Sugathadasa recounted. \u201cA lot of people asked us how that happened. They said this stock was not fundamentally strong at all. Even when I joined, investigations were going on against a certain group of companies over non-declaration of accurate information.\u201d
\nMeanwhile, certain \u201cnew entrants\u201d to the market had started trading heavily in the stock market. There were allegations of market manipulation.\u00a0 \u201cTherefore, the commission had to come in,\u201d Sugathadasa said.
\nThe price band, however, was heavily criticized. The SEC soon followed that with another temporary measure-credit restrictions. \u201cWe did this because prices were going up, and up, disproportionately,\u201d she said. \u201cEven the newspapers were giving out warning signals. The brokers came and told us, requested us in writing, to please restrict the credit because ordinary people didn\u2019t know what was happening and they kept on buying and buying.\u201d
\n\u201cThey would come to the market in the morning, sometimes without a cent in the pocket,\u201d Sugathadasa explained. \u201cThey would trade on credit, sell whatever they buy the same day and go home with at least Rs. 50,000 in the pocket. Nothing wrong with that but little did they know that if something happened they would not be able to sell what was there.\u201d
\nAnd something did happen. By the latter part of 2011, the curve changed. \u201cWe thought it had adjusted itself due to market forces but suddenly everyone started blaming the SEC for having restricted credit.\u201d
\nThe SEC then relaxed the credit restriction but saw no improvement. Why? \u201cBecause that was not the reason for the fall of the market,\u201d Sugathadasa claimed. \u201cThis only proved it.\u201d
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Get more capital in<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sugathadasa and Karunarathne cited similar reasons for the downfall of the Colombo bourse-for instance, the economic situation in the country, the devaluation of the rupee and high bank interest rates. People now prefer to put money into high interest fixed deposits.
\n\u201cThere is now a loss of confidence in the market among foreigners and locals,\u201d Sugathadasa emphasized. \u201cOne reason is people saw that the market is highly manipulated and that there were a couple of insider dealings. The genuine investors and minority investors got scared and don\u2019t want to come into the market because they are not sure of the investments.\u201d
\nWhile the government took many steps to promote foreign direct investment, the money didn\u2019t come. \u201cForeigners lost confidence,\u201d Sugathadasa said. \u201cThe chairperson of SEC changing all the time is also a reason.\u201d Karunarathne is the third chairperson in less than four years. Finally, there is still no clearing corporation in Sri Lanka to bear and manage risk.
\nAsked why the \u201cmafia\u201d was silent now, Karunarathne guessed that they might have \u201csiphoned out the cream of it and gone into other ventures, some of them burning their fingers in doing so\u201d.
\nAnd asked how the stock market could be revived, he stressed that there must be a fresh inflow of money, predominantly from abroad because \u201cthat kind of capital is not available locally\u201d. SEC is now taking various measures to stimulate this. \u201cYou need to get in at least 10 to 15 billion rupees initially and add about 100 billion rupees within a year or so to get the market up,\u201d he calculated.
\n\u201cPeople who raised money through IPOs (initial public offerings) have gone and dumped them in many ventures, for instance hotels,\u201d Karunarathne said. \u201cThat has taken a lot of money out.\u201d
\nLast years, 42 billion rupees came out of the market by way of IPOs and there was a 19 billion rupee outflow of foreign capital. \u201cWhere are we going to get this money?\u201d he asked. \u201cOf course, there are the big pension funds. Now there is a controversy about EPF (Employee\u2019s Provident Fund) investing; but if EPF is investing wisely and prudently and in a calculated manner, I think they should come into the bourse.\u201d<\/p>\n

-Ex SEC Chairperson<\/strong><\/p>\n

Determined to bring regulation<\/strong><\/p>\n

I<\/strong>ndrani Sugathadasa tried, and failed due to various reasons. But now her successor at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Thilak Karunarathne, is determined to regulate the market and to create a level playing field.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe SEC is not a thug in the street but we are tough…in the sense that we don\u2019t want unwanted things happening,\u201d the chairman said.
\nKarunarathne said that the contention that the Sri Lankan capital market was overregulated was a \u201cmyth\u201d. \u201cWe are one of the least regulated markets,\u201d he\u00a0reiterated. \u201cOverregulation is a myth and a canard.\u201d
\n\u201cThe thing is that some of these guys, the so-called mafia, want the freedom of the wild ass here so that they can do anything they want,\u201d he said. \u201cThat is why they say we are over regulating but in actual fact we are not. The SEC Act which came into force 25 years ago has many weaknesses.\u201d
\nLike cops-and-robbers, the SEC was always trying to catch up with the robbers, he noted. \u201cAll regulatory authorities are like that,\u201d he admitted. \u201cPeople who want to manipulate and do insider trading will always be one step ahead.\u201d
\nKarunarathne said SEC was drafting amendments to bring the Act in line with those in more mature markets, in order to reduce various acts of manipulation in the broadest sense of the word.\u00a0 \u201cObviously, we are controlling to some extent, or trying to control, all of the nefarious activities conducted by this group,\u201d he continued. \u201cFor them we are over regulating.\u201d
\nThe SEC chief confirmed that, while there is so far no criminal prosecution, there are investigations going on into the activities of brokers and other parties \u201cbut nothing is concluded yet\u201d. \u201cWhat is wrong with filing action against a wrongdoer?\u201d he asked, when it was pointed out that the commission is accused of creating a fear psychosis. \u201cIf they have not done anything wrong, then there is nothing to fear. Simply because a few people are worried about it, we can\u2019t stop sending letters. They keep on feeding this kind of nonsensical stuff to people who are not very conversant with what\u2019s going on.\u201d
\nHe was referring to letters sent out to clients seeking clarification on certain stock market transactions. Karunarathne said most of the incriminating files had been mothballed when he took over. \u201cI went back to the commission and said, while I\u2019m not a dictator, how can we revive things if the regulator is not doing his job.\u201d
\nAsked whether he was trying to \u201ccatch some big guys and put them in jail,\u201d he replied: \u201cIt is not so. Why are they worried? We are not trying to put anybody in jail but to see in place a properly regulated and vibrant capital market where the Johnnies who came late are not controlling the whole thing. They all came in after 2009 and now call themselves \u2018high net worth investors\u2019. (LAKBIMAnEWS sent questions via email to one of these investors but he did not reply).
\nOutspoken UNP parliamentarian and economist, Harsha de Silva, said the problem at the Colombo bourse was a complex one. \u201cIt is not just one of people front-running in the stock market, although that is also taking place,\u201d he mused. \u201cThere is much more than that.\u201d
\nThe question, he said, was whether SEC had done enough to ensure that the Colombo stock exchange had created a fair and equitable marketplace for people to trade in. He urged the SEC to strike a balance where regulation was concerned. Right now, some areas were overregulated while others were underregulated.
\n\u201cAn instance of underregulation is how the alleged pump-and-dump allegations have either not been investigated sufficiently or are not perceived to have been investigated sufficiently,\u201d he said. \u201cIf there are so many allegations, how come there wasn\u2019t single a prosecution?\u201d
\n\u201cSomething has happened in the market now,\u201d he asserted. \u201cThere is at least a slowdown in the amount of these types of frauds taking place. You don\u2019t hear as many complaints. We take credit that our speaking out has brought some sort of pressure either directly or indirectly leading to a slowdown of this daylight robbery.\u201d
\nLast year, SEC said several players were identified of having violated or committed some form of securities fraud, \u201cbut not even those names were divulged,\u201d he said. \u201cWe in fact said why don\u2019t you name and shame them.\u201d
\nFor the moment, however, there is no naming or shaming in the public arena. But there is plenty being said in private.<\/p>\n

The flip side<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the one hand, the SEC says there is a \u201cmafia\u201d or widespread price manipulation. On the flip side, sources pointed out that \u201cspeculating buying and manipulation\u201d also happens in other countries. \u201cMarkets are such that when you see a stock moving up, people start buying it and the price starts going up more and more,\u201d said one confidential source.<\/p>\n

The market is very small and over-regulated. And, like everything else in Sri Lanka, there is no consistency.\u00a0The SEC once brought in a price band but it was a formula not used in any other country. \u201cYou can\u2019t use something that is not tested,\u201d this source said. \u201cThen they shifted to a new IT platform without doing trial runs. There were so many bugs in it that with one share you could push the price up. Then they also introduced credit limitations.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnother thing is that certain people, like the secretary treasury and SEC chairman are going around saying people are making money from the SEC,\u201d the source continued. \u201cWhy kill the market if people are making money? It doesn\u2019t make sense.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now there is talk of fear psychosis. The SEC has sent notice of summons to various persons, including a powerful government politician, to record information about the purchase of certain stock. The letter states that failure to comply would result on criminal action. \u201cThey are killing the market by creating such a lot of fear,\u201d the source said. \u201cAnd the market if freefalling now because of all these factors including a lot of it from the economy. And whatever the SEC is doing is also not helping.\u201d<\/p>\n

The SEC was making it a criminal act to invest in the stock market. \u201cIn that case, shut down the Colombo stock exchange,\u201d the source asserted.<\/p>\n

It is thought that people within SEC \u201chave an issue because they can\u2019t play the market.\u201d \u201cCertain personal agendas are being followed,\u201d claimed the source. For instance, the government politician who received five letters from SEC reportedly has a close relative in the commission that does not get along with him.<\/p>\n

It is also felt that the SEC was going \u201coverboard\u201d with some people because of irrational animosity towards them. \u201cThey didn\u2019t have to take Harry Jayawardene or Nirj Deva into custody,\u201d said the source. \u201cThey could have issued a warning without taking some drastic measures.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is all because some people having been saying, \u201cWe have to catch some big fellows and put them in jail\u201d.<\/p>\n

Lakbima News<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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