{"id":58067,"date":"2012-10-30T08:22:20","date_gmt":"2012-10-30T08:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=58067"},"modified":"2012-11-02T10:37:30","modified_gmt":"2012-11-02T10:37:30","slug":"responding-to-the-politics-of-the-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/responding-to-the-politics-of-the-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"Responding To The Politics Of The Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Ahilan Kadirgamar<\/a><\/span> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Ahilan Kadirgamar<\/p><\/div>\n

Budgets are deeply political because they are about the distribution of resources. If we take the budget of a family, it is hierarchical and gendered; decision making on expenditure is often monopolised by the head of the family, where male and monetised work are valued over others, particularly domestic work. The same goes for the national budget, not only in terms of the priorities of resource allocation, but also the value given to certain sectors, the limited number of actors determining the budget and particular constituencies making recommendations. Budgets also intervene in deeply political moments shaped by historical social relations whether it be natural disasters, global economic crisis or national political manoeuvres.<\/p>\n

Immediate Concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are at least three immediate political economic concerns that will shape the reception of the 2013 Budget. First, if we take the drought that has affected our farmers this year, the impact of such a natural disaster is necessarily shaped by agrarian relations; whether it be the history of land reforms and the size of farming plots, their dependence on wage labour and their access to longer-term credit and subsidies to wade through difficult times. The same can be said of the politics of the global economic crisis. An economic crisis does not erupt out of a vacuum; it is a product of the capitalist system which exploits one section of society to the benefit of another, and in the process also creates the conditions for its own crisis. Furthermore, the impact of the global economic downturn depends on the extent to which the Sri Lankan economy has been integrated into the global economy through financial and trade liberalisation. Next, the controversial Divi Neguma Bill<\/a><\/span> and the immense centralisation of resources and powers under the Minister of Economic Development<\/a><\/span> is bound to shape rural economic life including the distribution of subsidies and local finances such as microfinance loans. The Divi Neguma Bill will both undermine devolution by absorbing subjects and powers belonging to the Provincial Councils and reinforce political patronage down to the local level.<\/p>\n

While these concerns are shaping the imminent reception of the Budget, the Government is likely to heed the recommendations of those economically powerful actors and members of the mainstream economic establishment. Serious engagement with the Government on the Budget has been limited to the major financiers of the Colombo Stock Exchange, the Chambers of Commerce and the business community, and the international financial institutions. The IMF and the World Bank in particular have considerable leverage to shape the Budget. The IMF has strict budgetary conditions for its Standby Agreement of 2009 and the World Bank\u2019s loans promote infrastructure development through its heavy investment and pushes for privatisation of education through its funding. The media is also selective in legitimising the views of professional economists, as budgets are viewed as technical policy plans rather than political documents requiring engagement by the citizenry. This situation is not unique to Sri Lanka. A national budget is claimed to be the realm of expert economists and business leaders, even though it is a reflection of the balance of political and economic forces or class relations in any society.<\/p>\n

Citizens Engagement<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is in this backdrop that a recently publicised submission by the Active Citizenship for Development Network (ACDN), a forum that has been engaging peripheral communities on local government budgets since 2011, is an interesting and important intervention. The ACDN paper which has received good media coverage – a positive shift in the media\u2019s engagement with budget politics – can be found here<\/a><\/span>.\u00a0While many professional economists may couch their elitist politics behind technocratic recommendations towards balancing the budget and liberalising the economy, the ACDN paper is bluntly political. In this article, I am going to draw extensively from the ACDN intervention, which begins by asking: “Will the 2013 Budget signal a shift in policies to address the economic challenges facing the marginalised communities and the broader citizenry?”<\/p>\n

Then it goes onto question how such citizens can keep their governments accountable given the history of broken promises. What avenues do ordinary people have to engage the Budget? And what do the recent protests and strikes mean in relation to the Budget? The ACDN claims: “Indeed, if the recent mobilisations and demands are seen as a process of engagement with the state, especially where participation through other means is limited, then the budget is to be awaited as the state\u2019s response to citizens\u2019 demands.”<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Recurrent and Capital Expenditure<\/strong><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Yet there is a particular logic to the budgeting process and the budget as a policy document. Significantly, the budget is divided into expenditures that are recurrent and capital. It is indeed debatable if these distinctions hold and whether manipulation takes place in the actual spending. Nevertheless, these distinctions shape the budget making process as a limited yearly exercise that fits into the larger economic policy trajectory. Again to quote ACDN:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
“Recurrent expenditure is towards the maintenance of state infrastructure and salaries of state employees from teachers to bureaucrats. … Capital expenditure on the other hand is dependent on any surplus revenue, development aid or loans taken by the state, and it is that portion of government expenditure that signals the priorities of economic policies and shifts in the economic weight of sectors.”<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
This important distinction between recurrent and capital expenditure raises questions about the large defence budget which has rightly come under scrutiny. Now, what portion of the defence budget goes towards the salaries of security forces personnel as opposed to spending on military equipment and infrastructure? Furthermore, since the Urban Development Authority was usurped by the Defence Ministry, considerable allocation towards problematic urbanisation spending also comes under the defence budget. While we must demand demilitarization as a political priority, both in terms of the size of the military and its increasing role in civil administration including urban development, it is not as simple as cutting the budgetary allocation towards the military, the bulk of which last year was recurrent. It must be a process by which the military is downsized while creating employment for those who have been in the state security sector. The investment in roads as capital expenditure as well as other infrastructures built to promote tourism might be more revealing of the Government\u2019s priorities. The argument that the Government lacks funds for social welfare should be turned into a debate about political priorities.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Uneven Development, Devolution and Revenues<\/strong><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Next, capital expenditure for certain sectors alone will also not capture the problems of uneven development. And this is where the Budget at the regional or local level is important as the ACDN submission highlights:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
“…[T]here can be great geographical differences in capital expenditure within the same sector. This is where the budgets at the Provincial and Local Government levels and access to capital spending will determine if there will be uneven development. Recent changes to tax policies have reduced the Provincial Councils\u2019 potential to collect taxes. The Business Turnover Tax (BTT) was abolished and the Nation Building Tax (NBT) introduced in 2011. Whereas BTT was a source of revenue to Provincial Councils, the bulk of the revenue from NBT goes to the Central Government. This has further reduced the revenue resources and autonomy of Provincial Councils.”<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Therefore, returning to the earlier point about Divi Neguma, the process of undermining devolution and local participation has been underway for a couple years as reflected in the changes to provincial revenues. After all, one of the most important aspects of meaningful devolution is the capacity to both raise revenues and control allocation of economic resources.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Indeed, not just at the provincial level but also at the national level, the Budget is determined by expected revenues, which in turn is influenced by tax policies. Indeed, the last two Budgets came with changes to tax policies which reduced the tax burden on the wealthy and reformed the tariff structure of imports. And this year again the engagement by the business community has been towards further tax and banking reforms to their benefit. At the same time, there is talk of a tax on water wells and reduction of tariffs on agricultural products to the detriment of rural communities. Thus when policymakers and economists speak of the lack of fiscal space and the budget deficit to avoid addressing popular demands, they are silent about the priorities that constrain the revenues available for expenditure.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
In the upcoming Budget, as with many economic policy documents we must be prepared for the economic experts\u2019 doublespeak. Economists always communicate with two hands. On the one hand, they will tell us that we are a successful economy with 8% growth over the last two years and therefore must sustain this development policy path. On the other hand, they will tell us that we must tighten our belts as we are facing problems with our budget and trade deficits because of the global economic crisis and the drought. That is often the message to the citizenry: we are prospering but we must tighten our belts, or that in order to prosper further we must tighten our belts! Whether in times of economic prosperity or crisis, the question of far reaching redistribution never arises.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Capital Accumulation, Social Welfare and Protests<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n

The ACDN paper has called for greater allocations to the education, agriculture, fisheries and estate sectors, and to consider the gendered implications of the Budget when it cuts social welfare. Yet many mainstream economists take the line that these demands on the Government are counterproductive. They claim it is only with a prosperous private sector, through the privatisation of services such as education and health and the building of private sector friendly infrastructure that capital accumulation necessary for further investment and economic growth can be stimulated. This logic draws from development economics that investment for developing countries can come from foreign aid or local capital accumulation. These mainstream economists extend this argument to social welfare, claiming that state investment in education and health could stagnate capital accumulation.<\/p>\n

This argument is particularly weak in the context of the far reaching financialisation and integration with global capital underway since the launch of neoliberal policies in Sri Lanka after 1977 and their acceleration over the last three years. We can readily observe such financialisation in the proliferation of banks and leasing companies, whereby people are increasingly drawn into debt. The same is true of our national economy, which by inviting global finance capital through the Stock Exchange and Sovereign Bonds is creating the conditions for a debt crisis caused by capital flight. Furthermore, parasitic capital accumulation through the privatisation of education and health will not necessarily lead to re-investment in Sri Lanka. Rather, such accumulated capital could be moved to other markets by global financiers or channelled into speculative bubbles by local financiers. Thus such financialisation could in effect dispossess the most needy communities of services, while the profits are absorbed by global and national financiers. Indeed, without clear state policies including state investment, locally accumulated capital and donor aid may end in luxury consumption rather than productive investment. The balance of payment problems that Sri Lanka ran into in February this year was a consequence of such consumption of luxury vehicles, the cost of which had to be borne by the lower classes in the form of massive fuel price hikes.<\/p>\n

The 2013 Budget is unlikely to waver from the broader economic policy trajectory set by the Rajapaksa Government<\/a><\/span>. Yet engagement with the budget is important as it is the most concrete articulation of the Government\u2019s economic policies every year. Engagement may not lead to immediate changes, but the cumulative impact of engagement, including strikes and protests, are important if an economic policy package that is acceptable to larger sections of the citizenry are to be won in the future. In the meantime, given the increasing cost of living and the roll-back of essential services, protests are likely to mount. Indeed, such protests are responding to the politics of the Budget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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