{"id":72418,"date":"2013-02-05T00:28:59","date_gmt":"2013-02-05T00:28:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=72418"},"modified":"2013-02-13T01:23:09","modified_gmt":"2013-02-13T01:23:09","slug":"wikileaks-dhanapalas-gloomier-assessment-is-more-accurate-than-rajapaksas-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/wikileaks-dhanapalas-gloomier-assessment-is-more-accurate-than-rajapaksas-us\/","title":{"rendered":"WikiLeaks: Dhanapala’s Gloomier Assessment Is More Accurate Than Rajapaksa’s – US"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Colombo Telegraph<\/a><\/span> –<\/strong><\/p>\n

“The different assessments offered by the Prime Minister and Dhanapala are colored by their different areas of expertise. Rajapakse generally has good insights into the domestic political front, while Dhanapala is better informed on the peace process. We are inclined to view Dhanapala’s gloomier assessment as, unfortunately, the more accurate.”<\/strong>\u00a0the US\u00a0Embassy Colombo informed Washington.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Jayantha Dhanapala<\/p><\/div>\n

A Leaked \u2018Confidential\u2019 US diplomatic cable, dated September 15, 2004, updated the Secretary of State regarding and a \u00a0meeting Ambassador\u00a0\u00a0Jeffrey J. Lunstead\u00a0had with\u00a0Mahinda Rajapaksa<\/a><\/span>\u00a0 and Peace Secretariat head\u00a0Jayantha Dhanapala<\/a><\/span>\u00a0.\u00a0The Colombo Telegraph found the related leaked cable from the\u00a0WikiLeaks<\/a><\/span>\u00a0database. The cable is signed by the US Ambassador to Colombo\u00a0Jeffrey J. Lunstead<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

The ambassador wrote; “The longer the hiatus between talks, the more time for sticking points to emerge, for the President’s maneuvering space to narrow, and for positions to harden. While the PM’s reasoning that the JVP will not quit the government may be on target, that doesn’t mean that the JVP will not continue militating against dialogue and undermining the atmosphere for compromise. The President is in a box, hemmed in by the Tigers on one side, chauvinist Sinhalese politics on the other, and the Norwegian facilitators–at least in Dhanapala’s view–watching unhelpfully from the sidelines. Without some kind of signal from the LTTE, it will be difficult for her to break the impasse alone. It seems doubtful, however, that the Norwegian visit will provide that impetus.”<\/p>\n

“Dhanapala’s suggestion that the Tigers might be motivated through contact with the Tamil diaspora seems to us a good one. The Tigers are holding a major meeting in Switzerland at the end of the month which many Tamil expats will attend. Department may wish to contact Rudrakumaran<\/a><\/span> and other Tamil contacts likely to attend to pass on a message. That message would be similar to our most recent public statements: the Tigers<\/a><\/span> need to change their behavior. If they do, they can move along the path to legitimacy.” ambassador\u00a0Lunstead further wrote.<\/p>\n

Read \u00a0cable below for further details;<\/p>\n

Related posts to this cable;<\/p>\n

WikiLeaks: \u2018Prabhakaran Thinks We\u2019re As Monolithic As He Is\u2019 \u2013 Dhanapala To US<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

WikiLeaks: Prime Minister Mahinda Described President Chandrika As \u201cVery Confident\u201d<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

WikiLeaks: Solheim Returned To Sri Lanka \u2018Empty-Handed\u2019 And Urged GSL To Take A \u2018Bold Step\u2019<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001526 \r\n\r\nSIPDIS \r\n\r\nSTATE FOR SA\/INS \r\n\r\nE.O. 12958: DECL: 09\/13\/2014\r\nTAGS: PGOV PTER PREL CE LTTE\r\nSUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PEACE PROCESS\r\nWITH PRIME MINISTER, PEACE SECRETARIAT \r\n\r\nREF: A. COLOMBO 1521\r\n     \u00b6B. COLOMBO 1510\r\n     \u00b6C. COLOMBO 1362 \r\n\r\nClassified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). \r\n\r\n-------\r\nSUMMARY\r\n-------- \r\n\r\n\u00b61.  (C)  In separate meetings with Prime Minister Mahinda\r\nRajapakse and Peace Secretariat head Jayantha Dhanapala on\r\nSeptember 15, the Ambassador discussed prospects for resumed\r\nnegotiations between the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) and\r\nthe Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  While Rajapakse\r\nexpressed guarded optimism, Dhanapala offered a bleaker\r\nassessment, noting that in the lack of movement tensions\r\nbetween the Tigers and GSL security forces have increased in\r\nTrincomalee and Nagarkovil, while the small but vocal\r\n\"anti-peace\" lobby in the South had become more strident.\r\nDhanapala does not expect the visit of Norwegian Special\r\nEnvoy Erik Solheim to alleviate the situation, since he has\r\nreturned to Sri Lanka with no new proposals from the LTTE.\r\nDhanapala asked the Embassy to raise LTTE encroachments in\r\nTrincomalee with the ceasefire monitors.  Both Rajapakse and\r\nDhanapala agreed that the LTTE seems to have dropped the\r\nMarch defection of Eastern military commander Karuna as a\r\npretext for refusing to negotiate.  End summary. \r\n\r\n-------------------\r\nPM POSITIVE;\r\nJVP CAN'T JUMP YET\r\n------------------- \r\n\r\n\u00b62.  (C)  In a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador, Prime\r\nMinister Mahinda Rajapakse described President Chandrika\r\nKumaratunga as \"very confident\" that she can soon restart\r\ntalks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  He\r\noffered several reasons for this assessment.  The LTTE seems\r\nto have stopped raising the March defection of Karuna, its\r\nEastern military commander, as a purported obstacle to\r\nresumed negotiations, Rajapakse said.  In addition, the GSL\r\nhas formulated a proposal for a multipartisan Advisory\r\nCouncil on the peace process (Ref A).  Finally, even the\r\nJanatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), the left-wing nationalist\r\ncoalition partner that has been most vocal in criticizing the\r\nLTTE's proposal for an interim admiinistration, has now said\r\nit is ready to discuss it, he noted.  The PM thinks the JVP's\r\napparent turnaround is the result of a pragmatic political\r\ncalculus, rather than a fundamental change of heart.  It is\r\ntoo early for the JVP to break ranks with the government,\r\nRajapakse said; the party will remain a coalition partner at\r\nleast until local council elections in April 2006, he\r\npredicted.  Moreover, the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance\r\n(TNA), with its 22 seats in Parliament, has pledged to\r\nsupport the government if talks resume, he added. \r\n\r\n\u00b63.  (C)  For now, the President has shelved her proposal for\r\na constituent assembly to abolish the executive presidency,\r\nRajapakse indicated.  Instead, the government is formulating\r\na comprehensive package of proposed constitutional\r\nchanges--including an interim arrangement for the north and\r\neast--instead of \"doing it piece by piece,\" the PM said.  If\r\ntalks resume, the government and LTTE could reach a\r\nnegotiated settlement within one year, he predicted\r\nconfidently. \r\n\r\n-----------------------------------\r\nPEACE SECRETARIAT MORE PESSIMISTIC\r\n----------------------------------- \r\n\r\n\u00b64.  (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador the same day,\r\nJayantha Dhanapala, the head of the Peace Secretariat,\r\nsounded a more pessimistic note.  Dhanapala opened the\r\nmeeting by thanking the USG for its August 19 statement\r\ncondemning LTTE violence, as well as for the firm line\r\ncommunicated by Coordinator for Counterterrorism Ambassador\r\nCofer Black in the media coverage of his recent visit (Ref\r\nB).  The indignant reaction to Ambassador Black's comments by\r\npro-LTTE TNA MPs and media show that \"the penny has dropped\"\r\nand his words hit home, Dhanapala said.  The Ambassador and\r\nDhanapala agreed that the tough messages from the EU and the\r\nJapanese have also been helpful (Ref C).  Nonetheless,\r\nDhanapala said, the basic situation remains \"congealed in a\r\nstalemate.\"  In the impasse, the anti-peace lobby, which\r\nDhanapala believes remains a tiny minority of the general\r\npopulation, is becoming more vocal and strident, appearing to\r\ndominate the discourse on this important issue and to\r\noverwhelm supporters of the peace process.  Although the\r\nPresident is personally committed to recommencing talks, she\r\nhas not, despite his urging, launched a pro-peace public\r\nrelations campaign to fill the vacuum and to refocus on the\r\nbenefits of peace, he said.  The Peace Secretariat cannot\r\nmobilize public support for the peace process on its own, he\r\nobserved; that must be done at the political level. \r\n\r\n\u00b65.  (C) If the GSL succeeds in getting talks restarted,\r\nDhanapala continued, that will dissipate some of the\r\nanti-peace lobby and \"bring the JVP more earnestly on board\"\r\nonce they see that negotiations are \"a going thing.\"  The GSL\r\nhas already spent a good deal of time preparing its\r\nnegotiating position, he said.  Thus, if talks did resume, he\r\nbelieves an agreement on an interim arrangement could be\r\nreached quickly and discussion of a final arrangement begun.\r\nThe window of opportunity is closing quickly, however, he\r\nwarned.  If the LTTE decides not to resume talks until it\r\n\"cleans up\" the East, the JVP might take advantage of the\r\nlack of progress to engage with restive Muslim groups in the\r\nEast, he suggested, and thereby increase pressure for a\r\n\"de-merger\" of the North and East.  Tiger supremo Prabhakaran\r\ndoes not understand the domestic political constraints the\r\nPresident is facing, Dhanapala said; \"he thinks we're as\r\n(politically) monolithic as he is.\" \r\n\r\n\u00b66.  (C)  Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has not\r\nresponded formally to the President's offer to join an\r\nAdvisory Council (Ref A), Dhanapala said.  He added that the\r\nGovernment had made clear to Wickremesinghe that the proposed\r\nCouncil would be \"a sounding board\" for parties, NGOs and\r\nother stakeholders to voice their views on the peace process,\r\nrather than an effort to achieve national consensus.  The\r\nproposal is an attempt to address criticism that the previous\r\n(Wickremesinghe) government had not been sufficiently\r\ntransparent and inclusive, he concluded. \r\n\r\n-------------------------\r\nOSLO ENVOY \"EMPTY-HANDED\"\r\n------------------------- \r\n\r\n\u00b67.  (C)  Norwegian Special Envoy Erik Solheim has returned to\r\nSri Lanka \"empty-handed,\" Dhanapala said, with no fresh\r\ninitiative to offer from the Tigers.  (Note:  Solheim arrived\r\nin Sri Lanka September 14 and will depart o\/a September 17.\r\nEnd note.)  According to Dhanapala, Solheim has urged the GSL\r\nto take a \"bold step\"--which Dhanapala interpreted to mean\r\naccept the Tigers' controversial proposal for an interim\r\nadministration as a basis for resumed negotiations--but could\r\nnot offer the GSL any reciprocal assurance that such a \"bold\r\nstep,\" if offered, would be accepted by the LTTE.  Without\r\nsome kind of assurance of how the LTTE would react, the \"bold\r\nstep\" urged by Solheim would be nothing but \"a leap in the\r\ndark,\" Dhanapala said, adding that he was \"puzzled\" that the\r\nNorwegians seemed to expect the GSL to take that political\r\nrisk.  He expressed little confidence that Solheim would make\r\nan effort to impress upon his LTTE interlocutors the\r\nGovernment's political constraints. \r\n\r\n\u00b68.  (C)  Because the GSL is the more rational party, the\r\nAmbassador said, it unfairly receives more pressure from\r\nother actors to be flexible and offer compromises.  In\r\naddition, the aid given by other governments and mulitlateral\r\norganizations gives them the opportunity to apply pressure on\r\nthe GSL, he noted.  The LTTE, on the other hand, seems\r\ngenerally unresponsive to such pressure, readily\r\nsubordinating incentives like socio-economic development for\r\nits purported constituents to political issues.  How can\r\ndonor governments help provide positive incentives for the\r\nLTTE to accept negotiations? the Ambassador asked.  The GSL\r\nhas already undertaken some confidence-building measures--for\r\nexample, the President's announcement that she is willing to\r\ninclude the controversial \"interim arrangement\" on a possible\r\nagenda for negotiations--and could do more, like increase\r\npatrolling in the East to reduce factional violence,\r\nDhanapala responded.  The LTTE, however, might respond best\r\nto pressure from the expatriate Tamil community, which\r\nfinances, either voluntarily or involuntarily, much of its\r\noperations, he asserted, adding that he believes pressure\r\nfrom the Tamil diaspora helped persuade the LTTE to accept a\r\nceasefire.  He urged the USG to expand contact with the Tamil\r\ndiaspora in the U.S. to this end. \r\n\r\n---------------------------\r\nTENSIONS IN NORTH AND EAST\r\n--------------------------- \r\n\r\n\u00b69.  (C) Dhanapala agreed that the split between Karuna, the\r\nTigers' former Eastern military commander, and LTTE\r\nheadquarters appears to have \"faded as an issue.\"  The Tigers\r\nremain concerned, however, about their grip on the East, he\r\nsuggested.  The situation in the northeastern district of\r\nTrincomalee is \"very worrisome,\" Dhanapala reported, where\r\nextensive LTTE bunkers could put Tiger artillery within reach\r\nof ships approaching the harbor.  The LTTE's \"lock on\r\nsecurity\" in Trincomalee infringes on the GSL's\r\nresponsibilities under the international law of the sea to\r\nsafeguard shipping in those waters, he asserted.  The Indian\r\ngovernment has already raised these concerns to the\r\nNordic-sponsored Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), he\r\nreported and suggested that the U.S. Embassy's Defense\r\nAttache might raise it as well.  The LTTE's demand that the\r\nGSL swap LTTE detainees for two Sinhalese home guards the\r\nTigers abducted in Trincomalee on August 18 has also\r\nincreased tensions.  Both the Government and SLMM have ruled\r\nout any such trade, he stated.  In the north, the situation\r\nis Nagarkovil is \"very, very tense.\"  (Note:  The GSL has\r\naccused the LTTE of expanding its forward defense line (FDL)\r\nin Nagarkovil, which is approximately 40 km north of Jaffna\r\ntown.  End note.) To make matters worse, the SLMM's proposal\r\nfor addressing this situation is \"not even-handed,\" he\r\ncomplained; it recommended that both parties move back even\r\nthough the GSL has not expanded its FDL. \r\n\r\n--------\r\nCOMMENT\r\n-------- \r\n\r\n\u00b610.  (C) The different assessments offered by the Prime\r\nMinister and Dhanapala are colored by their different areas\r\nof expertise.  Rajapakse generally has good insights into the\r\ndomestic political front, while Dhanapala is better informed\r\non the peace process.  We are inclined to view Dhanapala's\r\ngloomier assessment as, unfortunately, the more accurate.\r\nThe longer the hiatus between talks, the more time for\r\nsticking points to emerge, for the President's maneuvering\r\nspace to narrow, and for positions to harden.  While the PM's\r\nreasoning that the JVP will not quit the government may be on\r\ntarget, that doesn't mean that the JVP will not continue\r\nmilitating against dialogue and undermining the atmosphere\r\nfor compromise.  The President is in a box, hemmed in by the\r\nTigers on one side, chauvinist Sinhalese politics on the\r\nother, and the Norwegian facilitators--at least in\r\nDhanapala's view--watching unhelpfully from the sidelines.\r\nWithout some kind of signal from the LTTE, it will be\r\ndifficult for her to break the impasse alone.  It seems\r\ndoubtful, however, that the Norwegian visit will provide that\r\nimpetus. \r\n\r\n\u00b611.  (C)  Comment (continued):  Dhanapala's suggestion that\r\nthe Tigers might be motivated through contact with the Tamil\r\ndiaspora seems to us a good one.  The Tigers are holding a\r\nmajor meeting in Switzerland at the end of the month which\r\nmany Tamil expats will attend.  Department may wish to\r\ncontact Rudrakumaran and other Tamil contacts likely to\r\nattend to pass on a message.  That message would be similar\r\nto our most recent public statements:  the Tigers need to\r\nchange their behavior.  If they do, they can move along the\r\npath to legitimacy. \r\n\r\nLUNSTEAD<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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