{"id":87979,"date":"2013-05-22T01:44:41","date_gmt":"2013-05-21T20:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/?p=87979"},"modified":"2013-05-29T13:49:51","modified_gmt":"2013-05-29T08:19:51","slug":"wikileaks-cpc-and-ceb-sri-lanka-is-meeting-imf-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.colombotelegraph.com\/index.php\/wikileaks-cpc-and-ceb-sri-lanka-is-meeting-imf-targets\/","title":{"rendered":"WikiLeaks: CPC And CEB – Sri Lanka Is Meeting IMF Targets"},"content":{"rendered":"

“An IMF team conducting its first quarterly assessment has determined that Sri Lanka is meeting the targets of the July IMF standby agreement, and it appears that the IMF staff will recommend release of the second tranche of IMF funds in October. The IMF agreement, combined with optimism from the end of Sri Lanka,s conflict and an improving external economic environment, has encouraged substantial inflows of foreign capital into Sri Lanka. Although the road forward will be challenging, the IMF believes that Sri Lanka is on track to build international foreign reserves, control expenditure, increase government revenue, and reform the banking sector. The IMF will establish an office housed in the Sri Lankan Central Bank to monitor compliance. Overall, the IMF seems more optimistic than several local economists.”the US Embassy Colombo informed\u00a0Washington.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

IMF Mission Chief Dr. Brian Aitken<\/p><\/div>\n

The Colombo Telegraph<\/a><\/span> found the related leaked cable from the\u00a0WikiLeaks<\/a><\/span>\u00a0database. The unclassified cable recounts the details of the first quarterly review\u00a0conducted\u00a0by the\u00a0IMF\u00a0\u00a0re\u00a0\u00a0Sri Lanka’s progress toward IMF goals.The cable was written on September 23, 2009 \u00a0by the US Ambassador to Colombo,\u00a0Patricia A. Butenis<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Ambassador Butenis wrote; “The most difficult challenge will be to increase revenue so that Sri Lanka escapes from chronic balance of payments crisis. Government revenue fell by an estimated 6% \u00a0in the first half of 2009, reflecting declining imports (GSL derives a key segment of its revenue from import duties) and a weak domestic economy. The GSL has targeted increasing its revenue by 2% of GDP by 2011, starting from the 14.9% collected in 2008. Aitken was optimist that the GSL is ready to make fundamental reforms to increase revenue, and he noted that Sri Lanka has already increased its “nation building tax” from 1.5 to 3%. Sri Lanka will also benefit from increased revenues as the economy improves and imports increase. GSL has a Presidential Commission to examine ways to increase revenue, focusing on widening the taxpayer base rather than increasing tax rates. Currently there are only 650,000 taxpayers (out of a total 20 million population) but the GSL to start collecting from 1 million taxpayers by 2010.”<\/p>\n

“The GSL could meet its IMF target for two key state owned enterprises (SOE) to break even financially by 2011. The Ceylon Petroleum Company (CPC) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) chronically lose money, but the IMF team thought that the GSL has fully committed to reforming these SOEs to stop the drain on government finances. The CPC has benefited from falling international oil prices, while they have kept domestic retail oil prices high. Similarly, the CEB is building a coal fired electricity plant, so they could benefit from moving from high cost oil to cheaper coal. It is not clear that the GSL has planned real reforms of either SOE.” she further wrote.<\/p>\n

Placing a comment Butenis wrote;\u00a0Econoff was surprised by the IMF,s optimistic assessment. Although clearly the GSL has built up its reserves, and private capital is flowing into portfolio investments, many economists and businessmen are skeptical that the GSL will be able to continue to meet its spending and revenue targets. The GSL plans to call Presidential and Parliamentary elections over the next six months, which could lead to excessive spending.”<\/p>\n

Read the cable below for further details;<\/p>\n

VZCZCXRO2273\r\nPP RUEHBI RUEHCI\r\nDE RUEHLM #0905\/01 2661144\r\nZNR UUUUU ZZH\r\nP 231144Z SEP 09\r\nFM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO\r\nTO RUEHC\/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0558\r\nINFO RUEHIL\/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 8950\r\nRUEHKT\/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 7188\r\nRUEHNE\/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 3327\r\nRUEHCG\/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 9515\r\nRUEHKP\/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 2530\r\nRUEHCI\/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 0422\r\nRUEHBI\/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 6816\r\nRUEATRS\/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY\r\nRUCPDOC\/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY<\/pre>\n
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000905 \r\n\r\nSENSITIVE\r\nSIPDIS \r\n\r\nDEPARTMENT FOR EEB JENNIFER PETERSON AND TANYA SPENCER\r\nDEPARTMENT OF TREASURY FOR MALACHY NUGENT AND ATTICUS WELLER\r\nUSTR FOR MICHAEL DELANEY AND VICTORIA KADER \r\n\r\nE.O. 12958: N\/A\r\nTAGS: CE ECON EFIN IMF PGOV\r\nSUBJECT: SRI LANKA IS MEETING IMF TARGETS \r\n\r\nREF: COLOMBO 724 \r\n\r\n\u00b61.     (SBU)  Summary.  An IMF team conducting its first\r\nquarterly assessment has determined that Sri Lanka is meeting\r\nthe targets of the July IMF standby agreement, and it appears\r\nthat the IMF staff will recommend release of the second\r\ntranche of IMF funds in October.  The IMF agreement, combined\r\nwith optimism from the end of Sri Lanka,s conflict and an\r\nimproving external economic environment, has encouraged\r\nsubstantial inflows of foreign capital into Sri Lanka.\r\nAlthough the road forward will be challenging, the IMF\r\nbelieves that Sri Lanka is on track to build international\r\nforeign reserves, control expenditure, increase government\r\nrevenue, and reform the banking sector.  The IMF will\r\nestablish an office housed in the Sri Lankan Central Bank to\r\nmonitor compliance. Overall, the IMF seems more optimistic\r\nthan several local economists.  End Summary. \r\n\r\nIMF Mission Background \r\n\r\n\u00b62.    (SBU)  Sri Lanka reached an agreement in July to\r\ndisburse $2.6 billion in eight separate tranches, with the\r\nprovision that the IMF would conduct quarterly reviews of Sri\r\nLanka,s progress toward IMF goals.  The IMF conducted the\r\nfirst such review September 8-22.  Brian Aitken, head of the\r\nIMF mission, met privately with econoff to discuss their\r\nfindings on September 21, and then held a press conference\r\nSeptember 22 with the GSL. Aitken commented that the GSL has\r\nbeen very transparent, posted the IMF letter of intent on its\r\nCentral Bank website, and was very open during the review\r\nprocess.  The IMF mission will prepare a report for the IMF\r\nboard in late October, and the board will decide whether to\r\ndisburse the next tranche of $322 million.   The IMF will\r\nestablish an office in the Central Bank to monitor Sri\r\nLanka,s economic health. \r\n\r\nSri Lanka is meeting the IMF Targets \r\n\r\n\u00b63.    (SBU)  There have been very large inflows of foreign\r\nexchange into Sri Lanka, which swelled Sri Lanka,s foreign\r\nexchange reserves from $1.2 billion in March (about one month\r\nof import cover) to $4.1 billion today.  The IMF agreement\r\nprovided confidence to private investors that Sri Lanka is on\r\nthe right track.  For instance, a U.S. based hedge fund has\r\npurchased $875 million in  two and four year Sri Lankan rupee\r\ndenominated government bonds.  The hedge fund receives a high\r\ninterest rate from these bonds, and even though they have\r\ntaken on an exchange rate risk, several economists opined\r\nthat the hedge fund,s bet is reasonable.  Similarly, the Sri\r\nLanka Central Bank is preparing to issue $500 million in\r\ngovernment bonds, and the IMF,s Aitken guessed that the bond\r\nissue would be oversubscribed.  Sri Lanka,s current account\r\ndeficit declined by almost 60% in the first six months of\r\n2009, an 18% drop in exports was overshadowed by a 36% fall\r\nin imports, and remittances from workers abroad increased\r\n5.4%.  Finally, the Standard and Poor,s rating service has\r\nrevised Sri Lanka,s sovereign ratings outlook from negative\r\nto stable. \r\n\r\n\u00b64.    (SBU)  Sri Lanka is having some success controlling its\r\nspending.  According to a local business journal,s analysis,\r\ntotal government spending  increased by 8% in the first half\r\nof 2009, a period including the end of their 30 year civil\r\nwar.  After the conflict, the GSL told Aitken that military\r\ncosts would remain stable.  The GSL has an ambitious plan to\r\nspend up to $2.4 billion on reconstruction of the war ravaged\r\nNorth and East, and the GSL hopes to receive substantial\r\ndonor and private sector funding to cover much of these\r\ncosts.  The Central Bank estimates that yearly GSL spending\r\nwould average 0.8% of total GDP, or approximately $320\r\nmillion per year.  Interest rates have also fallen, which\r\nwill help reduce government payments to cover its debt.   The\r\nreal test will be the 2010 budget.  The GSL is scheduled to\r\ndraw up the parameters of its spending in October and will\r\npresent its budget in November. \r\n\r\n\u00b65.    (SBU)  The most difficult challenge will be to increase\r\nrevenue so that Sri Lanka escapes from chronic balance of\r\npayments crisis.  Government revenue fell by an estimated 6% \r\n\r\nCOLOMBO 00000905  002 OF 002 \r\n\r\nin the first half of 2009, reflecting declining imports (GSL\r\nderives a key segment of its revenue from import duties) and\r\na weak domestic economy.  The GSL has targeted increasing its\r\nrevenue by 2% of GDP by 2011, starting from the 14.9%\r\ncollected in 2008.  Aitken was optimist that the GSL is ready\r\nto make fundamental reforms to increase revenue, and he noted\r\nthat Sri Lanka has already increased its \"nation building\r\ntax\" from 1.5 to 3%.  Sri Lanka will also benefit from\r\nincreased revenues as the economy improves and imports\r\nincrease.   GSL has a Presidential Commission to examine ways\r\nto increase revenue, focusing on widening the taxpayer base\r\nrather than increasing tax rates.  Currently there are only\r\n650,000 taxpayers (out of a total 20 million population) but\r\nthe GSL to start collecting from 1 million taxpayers by 2010. \r\n\r\n\u00b66.    (SBU)  The GSL could meet its IMF target for two key\r\nstate owned enterprises (SOE) to break even financially by\r\n\u00b62011.  The Ceylon Petroleum Company (CPC) and Ceylon\r\nElectricity Board (CEB) chronically lose money, but the IMF\r\nteam thought that the GSL has fully committed to reforming\r\nthese SOEs to stop the drain on government finances.  The CPC\r\nhas benefited from falling international oil prices, while\r\nthey have kept domestic retail oil prices high.  Similarly,\r\nthe CEB is building a coal fired electricity plant, so they\r\ncould benefit from moving from high cost oil to cheaper coal.\r\n It is not clear that the GSL has planned real reforms of\r\neither SOE. \r\n\r\n\u00b67.    (U)  The IMF assessment was that the Sri Lanka\r\nfinancial industry was in good shape.  Sri Lanka avoided much\r\nof the direct contagion of the global financial crisis\r\nbecause they did not delve deeply into sophisticated\r\nfinancial instruments like derivatives.  Although the level\r\nof non-performing loans is rising, reflecting weakness in\r\ncertain domestic sectors, overall the financial system is\r\nwell capitalized and the IMF did not foresee a systemic\r\nrisk.  The IMF also thinks that the Central Bank supervision\r\nof the banking industry is good. \r\n\r\n\u00b68.    (U)  Sri Lanka,s GDP growth expectations are picking\r\nup.  The IMF increased its growth forecast from 3% to 3.5% in\r\n2009, within the range of the Central Bank,s forecast of\r\n3.5% to 4.5% growth.  The Central Bank forecasts growth to\r\nimprove to 6% in 2010, and it could reach the 7% range\r\nthereafter. \r\n\r\nWill the GSL stick to the IMF fiscal medicine? \r\n\r\n\u00b69.    (SBU)  The big question is whether Sri Lanka will stick\r\nto the IMF targets and discipline.  Several private sector\r\neconomists and business leaders were pleased with the IMF,s\r\ninvolvement, which they believe will encourage GSL fiscal\r\ndiscipline.  The GSL now has good international reserves,\r\nalthough the build up in reserves is predicated on confidence\r\nbuilt on the IMF agreement.  Therefore, at least in the short\r\nterm, it seems that the GSL has incentives to continue\r\nmeeting its IMF targets. \r\n\r\n\u00b610.    (SBU)  Comment.  Econoff was surprised by the IMF,s\r\noptimistic assessment.  Although clearly the GSL has built up\r\nits reserves, and private capital is flowing into portfolio\r\ninvestments, many economists and businessmen are skeptical\r\nthat the GSL will be able to continue to meet its spending\r\nand revenue targets.  The GSL plans to call Presidential and\r\nParliamentary elections over the next six months, which could\r\nlead to excessive spending.  End Comment.\r\nBUTENIS<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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