By Vishwamithra –

“Even extreme grief may ultimately vent itself in violence—but more generally takes the form of apathy.” ~ Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

The foremost responsibility of the AKD government is one: safety and security of its people. Everything else falls second to it. Sustained prosperity, a superior education system and a healthy upbringing of her children are amongst them. President Dissanayake and his government is facing today a global situation which is unique; its architecture and design, its roots and its branching out, its very sustenance depends not on the narrow implementation of the domestic policies and monitoring.

As of March 2026, Sri Lanka has been navigating a delicate balance between economic recovery via the IMF, securing foreign investment (from both India and China), and managing foreign policy challenges. The AKD government must navigate external pressures, such as debt restructuring with global creditors and the ongoing impacts of West Asian conflicts on energy supplies, requiring more than just domestic policy to succeed.

On the other hand, India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbor, is increasingly becoming an enigmatic player on the field. Her primary concern is to feed, clothe and house her vast population. While India remains a country of “extremes”, it is currently characterized more by its resilient growth and welfare-backed stability than by a population on the verge of a poverty-induced eruption. Being prone to eruptions every now and then, her numbers—in terms of population—sometimes act as both her strength and weakness. Her GDP is amongst the first five, ranking number 4 behind, US, China and Germany. She is not a poor country now. Yet vast numbers are still struggling to put food on the table, while the richest families can compete with any in the world.

While the upper classes in India benefit from a well-ordered environment, the middle and lower classes, who face the brunt of high socioeconomic pressures and public infrastructure scarcity, often show behaviors that appear chaotic or undisciplined, reflecting a struggle for resources rather than an inherent lack of principle. In the midst of the US/Israel-Iran war, the lengthening lines for fuel do not seem to be a representation of the whole of India. One does not see modern and latest vehicles on these lines. On the other hand, the fuel scarcity triggered by our rulers’ economic mismanagement became a grand equalizer, hitting every class of consumer alike.   

Some may argue that comparing India and Sri Lanka is an exercise in false equivalence. Yet, Sri Lanka and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake cannot operate in isolation from the complex geopolitics of the current international milieu. It was the Aragalaya-22 that fundamentally dismantled the old political order, creating the unique circumstances for voters to embrace AKD and the NPP as the only viable alternative to a failed establishment.

She is seemingly unfathomable, and despite her ostensible neutrality, one is led to believe that she is neither fish nor fowl insofar as the US/Israel-Iran war is concerned. Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is carrying the proverbial torch to the brim, so to say, giving full expression to his Master’s, Prime Minister Modi’s, views and postures. But neither of them has been found to be uttering falsehoods in any given context. Diplomacy, the nuanced language, is frequently employed to navigate conflicting interests, resulting in statements that are neither blatant falsehoods nor complete truths, but rather carefully crafted narratives tailored for the audience.

But one cannot question Modi’s patriotism nor his determined commitment to execute all policies and principles in order to achieve his geopolitical goals. Friendliness with Russia and a pragmatic engagement with China are two essential ingredients in that recipe and Modi is measuring his pounds ounces to the last decimal in that exercise.

While India is engaged in this strategically sound exercise of diplomacy, China maintains a complex balancing act. Xi Jinping remains a critical partner for Tehran; China currently absorbs nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, which provides a vital economic lifeline for the regime despite global sanctions. In a comparative sense, Iran is more significantly dependent on China than vice versa. Time and time again, China has proven to be a reliable partner and some nations treat China as a trustworthy global friend.

Nevertheless, a significant segment of the Sri Lankan public holds a negative view of China’s influence, accusing it of exploiting past administrations—particularly the Rajapaksas—through opaque deals and unsustainable debt, creating long-term sovereignty concerns. But insofar as the current US/Israel-Iran war is concerned, the position China is adopting now seems to be only reasonable diplomatic bearing a twenty first century superpower should take.

China has been a friend of Sri Lanka for many decades. She has been extraordinarily aggressive in her pursuit of friendship; however, since of late, she has shown a very keen sense of urgency in asserting herself in a given circumstance. Acting as a ruthless executive of authority and wielding all available leverage, China has, more often than not, advanced its cause of global dominance through economic assistance and strategic business partnerships.

India and China are the two closest and most influential allies Sri Lanka could have today. India’s relations with Sri Lanka go a way back to the very birth of Ceylon as a nation. According to Mahawamsa (The Great Chronicle), Vijaya, the founder of Sinhala nation, was a prince who was banished by his father-King, hailed from Vanga and Kalinga kingdoms (present day Bengal and Odisha). This relationship-thread that Sinhalese have with Northern Indians may have been tempered by the Tamils of India whose birthrights are deeply rooted in the Deep South of India, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, for instance.

Against this macro context of Sino-India paradigm, Sri Lanka might stand quite puny; economically, the gulf could not have been wider, but culturally and socially they could well be soulmates. Deep-rooted in Eastern social ways, all three nations have been subjects of outside imperial powers. President Dissanayake of Sri Lanka sits in the middle of this triangle, contemplating as to how his government could navigate the stormy waters of twenty first century clashes between fellow nations.

AKD has to grapple with the macro economic factors as well as those micro economic aspects of a rural population whose sole aspirations are often constrained by the immediate demands of daily subsistence. The path that the Aragalaya-22 showed to the country was no winding curve. It was direct, straightforward, clear, and unambiguous. The demands, purpose, and impact of the Aragalaya-22 were not confusing, hidden, or manipulative, but rather a direct confrontation of power. AKD and NPP being carried to power on the shoulders of those who organized, planned and executed of Aragalaya-22 is no shame; in fact it was their pride and privilege.

AKD and the NPP cannot afford to rest; any loss of momentum risks surrender to the very stagnation they promised to change. But the war in the Mideast may have altered the trajectory of Sri Lanka’s post-bankruptcy journey. So long as public confidence in AKD and the NPP holds, managing these complex challenges may prove less strenuous.

*The writer can be reached at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com