By Ameer Ali –

Dr. Ameer Ali

“They have made their oaths a screen (for their misdeeds” (Al-Quran, 63:2)

“If (the West) shows its rigidity by making unjust decisions and putting their threats into practice, the Iranian people will not be the only ones to pay the price (Hashemi Rafsanjani).  There is no doubt that the war against Iran was started by Israel and got US dragged into it with pressure from the powerful Zionist lobby in Washington. Recently even Pete Hegseth the US Defence Secretary admitted that Iran posed no threat to US. Yet, the war has entered its second month, and Trump administration is desperately looking for a way out to get out of it with some dignity. Only a couple of weeks ago the megalomaniac President was crowing that he had won the war hands down, but his Secretary of State is now frantically running round trying to convince the world that the “military operation” would end in a few weeks and not months.  Then why send ground troops to the Middle East now? And why the preparation to capture Kharg island? Having failed to drag NATO into this war Trump is asking NATO countries to “go and get their own oil through the Strait of Hormuz”. Probably the war is destined to be a long, drawn-out affair fought without any specific objectives or agenda.

Right from the beginning the warring duo US and Israel grossly miscalculated and underestimated Iran’s capacity and determination to resist their combined aggression, and for its part and in response to the aggression Iran has escalated the war and converted it into a regional one as its leaders promised from the beginning. Neither the Iranian regime has collapsed as promised by Trump nor has the country exhausted its arsenal of weapons to fight. Its stock of missiles is continuously replenished with more advanced ones from Russia.  After closing the Strait of Hormuz Iran is setting its own terms for any negotiation. It was US that started the war, but it would be Iran which would decide when to end it. In short, Trump has jumped into the deep end of a pool without knowing how to swim out of it.

On a wider front however, whether Iran’s enemies choose peace or war the world is in for another period of stagflation and low economic growth. The oil-backed dollar economy of US is facing a historic crisis and Israel, according to an insider, is “cracking” from within, and so is Trump’s MAGA political movement. According to independent observers the war is now moving beyond the region and may change the global power dynamics to put an end to the post-World War II International Order. In a latest move, UK is sending troops to the Middle East to defend its interests after Iran fired missiles on Cyprus. It is a significant development after Trump’s criticism of NATO allies. In the meantime, China is gleefully watching from the sideline to see whether that change would finally transfer global leadership from the North to South.   

However, within the regional theatre the six family or dynasty ruled Gulf states namely Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, are caught in a state of panic to say the least. Their vassalage to US superpower in return for security guaranty against any domestic or foreign threat to their regimes has backfired and all US bases in the region have turned out to be a security liability. By targeting these bases and other US and Israeli facilities Iran is trying to make Gulf rulers realise that their countries cannot remain as platforms for Iran’s enemies and they are legitimate targets for Iranian drones and missiles. In this context it is absolute nonsense for Trump’s Secretary of State to claim that Iran’s nuclear preparation is directly aimed at the Gulf countries. On the contrary, Iran never threatened any of these regimes either militarily or otherwise until now.  Iran’s uranium enrichment program and its potential for developing a nuclear arsenal are a legitimate response to Israel which already has those weapons and is aiming to destroy Iran with US assistance to clear the way for Greater Israel to emerge as the superpower in the Middle East.

The Gulf regimes, at least since the 1979 Iranian revolution, are living with a mortal fear that Iranian nationalism and Iran’s post-revolutionary governments’ unflinching support for the freedom struggle of Palestinians would become a potential threat to the durability of ruling Gulf dynasties. That revolution which ended the Shah’s tyranny and got rid of its US ally’s interference in Iranian affairs sparked a religious-cum-political awakening all around the Muslim world and particularly in the Gulf region created a fear among Gulf rulers that the awakening may lead to similar changes in that region as well. It was that fear which drove these regimes to tighten their relations with US and to surrender their security and defence needs at the feet of Washington. In an attempt at immunising their subjects from the Iranian revolutionary virus the historic Shia-Sunni sectarian split was utilised to the maximum. It is that same virus which once again appears to threaten these regimes and hence their panic. The fear that Iran with members of its axis of resistance, which according to a latest report would include even the Chechens if US ground troops were to enter Iranian territory, may be the ultimate winner in this war has collectively driven the Gulf rulers to support US-Israel attack on Iran.  Among these states, Saudi Arabia in particular stands to gain if Iran’s oil resources were to be crippled or destroyed.  Self-interest drives Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman to back Trump’s war. At the same time, Trump is also capitalising on Arab desperation by demanding the Arab regimes to compensate financially the cost incurred so far in this aimless war. It is time that Arab leaders realise that their natural allies are in Global South and their current honeymoon with US is driven more by the need to preserve dynastic rule than out of popular choice.         

After Trump’s 2015 Abraham Accord almost all these regimes are in bed with Israel and their commitment to an independent Palestine state is only a “screen” as the Quranic quote on hypocrites (munafiqun) implies.  The only country that is fighting for Palestine is Iran and that is why Israel is determined to destroy it even if nuclear weapons were to be employed. Israel bombs and destroys indiscriminately any structure and facility in Iran including schools, hospitals, universities, medical research centres and so on. Trump is doing the same.  In case Iran loses this war, which is highly unlikely, and if Israel is allowed to continue its planned annexation of the West Bank, Gaza and Southern Lebanon up to the Litany River, there is nothing to stop the Gulf countries becoming vassal states of Greater Israel. The ball is in their court.