5 November, 2024

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A führer In The Making

By Ameer Ali

Dr. Ameer Ali

Misrule, mismanagement and misappropriation at the highest level of government drove Sri Lankan economy to bankruptcy, and that bankruptcy is turning out to be the crucible for the country’s democracy. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, when speaking at the ‘Imagine’ 32nd Rotary District Conference in Colombo just a couple of days ago, made it clear that his “first, second and third priorities” would be economic recovery while maintaining law and order to prevent anarchy. Once the economy recovers, according to him, he would allow the people to use their voting power “next year”, i.e., 2024, to decide about the future. It should now be clear to opposition parties and people as a whole that the scheduled Local Government Elections (LGE) on 9th March would not be held. Will the country’s judiciary allow this denial of democracy by a president who came to power not with the consent of his people but through a constitutional process? RW has determined to use all the powers bestowed upon him by that constitution to continue his rule until his term ends, if not beyond. A führer is clearly in the making. Will he create a Gestapo to eliminate his opponents? 

Behind RW’s determination is his confidence that IMF would soon release its promised $2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), whether China offers or not additional finance assurance for its share of Sri Lanka’s debt. This confidence has increased after the president successfully manipulated the Public Utilities Commission (PUCL) to approve raising electricity tariffs by another 66%. It was raised by 75 % only six months ago. These increases were to comply with IMF’s conditionality. 

Moreover, with financial assurance from India, Paris Club and the Bondholder Group and their willingness to restructure Sri Lanka’s debt, and with rising tension between US and China, IMF assistance and additional funds from the World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have become more a geopolitical necessity than economic. It is not a secret that IMF is also a tool of American imperialism. Recent visit to Colombo by a 20-member US delegation team led by Jedidiah Royal, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, adds more weight to the geo-political argument. All this had increased RW’s expectation that IMF fund would be made available soon. He expects that to be in March.       

Tight fiscal policy and strong government are two of the essential ingredients of typical IMF recipe for any bankrupt economy that seeks its assistance. IMF does not mind if that strong government produces even a führer as long as that leader follows the recipe without compromising. President RW is emerging as Sri Lanka’s strong man ready to implement a tightened fiscal policy regime while dispensing with any need for popular consent. His instructions to the treasury not to release funds for non-essential expenses, and accordingly, the treasury’s denial of funds to the Election Commission to conduct the LGE scheduled in March is indication of RW’s resolve to continue ruling with iron fist. 

Peoples’ Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFEL) complaint about death threats to officials working for the Election Commission, sealing by police the office of PUCSL Chairman Janaka Ratnayake, who did not support the 66% increase, and RW’s determination to put down any organized protests against his rule are signs of an emerging repressive regime.              

The need for higher taxes and strong government are sold to the public with the promise of a phantasmagoric economic affluenza in twenty-five years. Hence, RW’s appeal to people for sacrifice in the name of patriotism. Didn’t the German führer also promise such fantasia in the name of patriotism and Aryan supremacy? Did he succeed at the end? 

The problem with IMF is that it has a one size fit all design. True, a bankrupt government should increase its revenue and reduce expenditure. Therefore tax increases are unavoidable, but the issue is which taxes to be increased and who should pay them. IMF prefers broadening the tax base with indirect taxes levied on most consumables, and according to its philosophy, taxing the rich is to kill the goose that lays golden eggs. The 66% hike on electricity is typical of an indirect tax and its incidence would fall disproportionately on middle and low-income households. Although RW has promised no power cuts, yet the burden of that tariff would inevitably force households to adopt self-imposed power cuts to minimize the electricity bill. (It would be interesting to study the impact of these power cuts on national birth rate when the next census takes place). 

IMF also prefers a strong government to implement its recommendations, but whether that government should be clean or not doesn’t seem to be its worry.  This is the problem with the government under RW, which is run by the same crooks and looters who made IMF intervention necessary in the first place. The President himself depends on their support to remain in power. He is utterly powerless to call them to account for mismanaging the economy, and by preventing the LGE he is also denying the people a chance to pass their verdict on them.  In fact, several countries in South America, Africa and Asia that sought IMF assistance did not prosper because of corrupt governments protected by outside powers at the expense of democracy. 

RW’s promise of an election next year is pinned on his hopes for economic revival. It is unlikely that his hopes would materialize, because it is not simply the economy that needs revival but the entire socio-political system and culture on which the economy has been built needs replacing. Already, foreign corporations such as Japanese Mitsubishi and Taisei have decided to leave the country and German companies are threatening the same if import ban continues. More than 300,000 young and skilled workers left the country in 2022 alone to seek employment abroad and an estimated 1,000 doctors have migrated. RW’s tax measures had created a crisis for the survival of small and medium enterprises, and notably to the apparel industry. In addition to difficulties at the local level, IMF and WB have predicted a world economic slowdown in 2023 from which Sri Lanka cannot escape.  

Even without system change, economic revival requires more than the implementation of IMF recommendations. Without a vigorous growth in export industries, which require foreign investment, any economic growth will only be sluggish at best. Whether that investment would be forthcoming in view of the low confidence foreign investors have on Sri Lanka’s political stability and economic future is doubtful. Of course, India would invest and so too China, but those investments would be more of strategic value to the two regional giants than to the benefit of Sri Lankans. IMF’s EFF and funds from WB and ADB are not sufficient to fill the investment gap and promote economic growth. Therefore, RW’s optimism about economic revival in one year is sadly misplaced. Above all, no economy could revive let alone prosper without public support. The Verite Research “Mood of the Nation” poll shows that peoples support to the government had dipped to 10% in February. With increasing public discontent over RW’s anti-democratic political machinations, harsh fiscal measures and increasing cost of living, 2023 is going to be another year of protests and repression.  How would the economy revive in such a climate?   

*Dr. Ameer Ali, Murdoch Business School, Murdoch University, W. Australia

Latest comments

  • 10
    0

    This is what I call a SHAM. If there was no plans to conduct LGE , why the fuss ??? Getting EC, SC, parties and others involved, announce in an official gazette, get the parties worked up, then delay of allocate funds for election, delay tactics, force EC to not have elections and take the blame, pretending to fight election with SLPP, going to extent of paying deposits throughout the opposition also knew it may be postponed . . . . . . This is how Lankan government conducts business for 75 years.

    • 8
      1

      Our total national debt is 86.61 billion US dollars ….. https://www.statista.com/statistics/531949/national-debt-of-sri-lanka/

      We have progressively borrowed more and more to pay back our loans (capital + interest.) A classic debt-trap.

      Is the IMF going to give us 86.61 billion? …….. The IMF will only push us into more and more debt: facilitate/ease our access to more borrowing.

      What Ranil is doing is nothing but kicking the can down the road ……… for the next generation/youth to carry the old geriatric bastards burden and solve/deal with it once the utterly corrupt septuagenarians and octogenarians have had their fun and gone. What does Ranil care: he won’t be around!

      If one’s burning concern is to fix the economy, one wouldn’t appoint 37 + 2 ministers …….. and pay Sagala to be an advisor – isn’t Ranil the know-all: why does he need advice? ……. (If Old Codger is appointed an advisor, I’ll shoot him myself! That’s his reputation as a ladies’ man gone to hell. )

      If you need a harem as the emperor of the country ……. pay out of your own blooming pocket.

      Lankans are so used to getting things for free …….. when Sinhala_Man was taken to the Mustang Ranch to show what pleasures are on offer to Commies in their Holy Land …… he tried to pull out coupons …….

  • 2
    0

    When the election is not kept RW is defrauded the country, Then IMP and China loose trust on approval for funds the restructure. is including the leaders who put on the country to bankrupt

    This has not happen. economic revival requires more than the implementation

    So global, Financial Experts Share Their Thoughts on Accounting, on front of the world democracy is by the people for the people from the people Ranil don’t have this. What RW promises will not hold authority he was selected for short term?

  • 12
    3

    The Buddhist (fundamentalist) hierarchy including the Mahanayakes and the Bhikkus want a real führer to implement the final solution for Sri Lanka as an exclusive Sinhalese-Buddhist republic for ever. Their bird brains are unable to fathom what happened to the führer and his Aryan Supremacist Germany.

    Ranil after being rejected by the people got his opportunity and is turning into a führer to grant the wishes of the Buddhist fundamentalists. Heil Ranil!

    • 6
      2

      Yes Thiru Bhikkus asked for one and inturn were blessed with two., made in SB Lanka.”Heil Hitler “.

  • 5
    1

    “The Verite Research “Mood of the Nation” poll shows that peoples support to the government had dipped to 10% in February.”
    The people are not consistent in responding changes and they don’t look at cumulative impact of the problems. Sri Lanka do not have a consistent state policy either in internal or external policies. Sri Lanka’s left (SLFP/SLPP) or right (UNP/SJB) move has advantages and disadvanatages to the people and country. For Political parties and Corruptors of those parties get substantial benefits as well as the External powers to use our resources to maximise their benefits through loans but for the country and people become debtors and bankgruptcy. For example, China become an enemy country under UNP rule and USA become an enemy country during SLPP rule. Now if China ask all loans to be paid immediaterly with interest what can Ranil do? He will have to obey China’s conditions. Then, the people will change from Ranil to Rajapaksa . This circle will continue but country cannot move foward or move backwards.

  • 3
    2

    Dear Dr Ameer Ali,
    .
    Yes, I agree with almost all that you have said here. No comments on your article visible to me as I write 19:16.
    .
    More or less the same story emerges from this article and the comments on it.
    .
    https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/ranils-prospects-at-the-next-election/

    I haven’t so far engaged in a any detailed exchanges with Raj-UK, at any time. I must do so today. He’s been making very good comments up to a few days ago – but not any more.

    I have already said there most of what I have to say to “leelagemalli”, but I haven’t revealed his name, mostly out of my decency, but also out of respect for Manel Fonseka, who thinks that names should not be revealed (and she’s in Colombo, Lanka – all respect to her for that).
    .
    All others referred to above, and most commenters, live in “foreign countries” at this time.
    .
    A horrible end to our lives will descend upon us who are still here. Let this be made clear to many of you who are abroad. Most have done all that they could have for us. There may be others to whom this applies in almost equal measure – but to Kumar and you, especially, thank you for all that you have done.
    .
    Panini Edirisinhe of Bandarawela (NIC 483111444V)

  • 4
    2

    We still do not know what the “Imposed” steps that the Sri Lanka Government must take to receive the “Bail Out”. We rely on Government statements that are made through “Gossip” and other “Unconfirmed” sources. So far no such comprehensive requirements of the IMF have been tabled in Parliament. What we know so far are some of the steps taken that the people are forced to bear, viz. the tax hikes, utility rate hikes, Bank lending rate hikes, etc., and the curtailment of expenditure of Government expenditure. But the Government has gone back on its own words by making unnecessary expenditures such as the “Independence Day” celebrations and the recently held “Raja Perahera” (Royal Pageant) in Kandy. In addition, the Government has failed to stop the ongoing corruption even at this present time. It is not that difficult for any average person to know that when the economy shrinks with such stringent measures and high corruption rates Government revenue cannot be achieved.

    All these economic hardships plus the political unrest that prevail in the country will neither achieve the targets of the Government nor the IMF and all other lending organizations. Both internal and outside investments will not be forthcoming with the economic, political, and social unrest that prevail in the country. The approval rating of the Government has dwindled to a low of 10%.

    So this statement by the President to the country, the people, and the Industrial/ commercial entrepreneurs is a MISNORMAR.

    • 7
      1

      Simon

      Could you tell me whether this island is Buddhist, or Sinhala/Buddhist country. If so when this island was converted to a Sinhala/Buddist country, how, why, …… what benefit did the people accrue from this transformation?

      • 3
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        NV: That “Buddhist” and “Sinhala/Buddhist” country “Emblam” has been a “Lethal” weapon in the possession of an “Elitist”; “Hegemonic”; and “Familial” rulers who “Poisoned” and converted the common people to “Slavery”. That is “Transformation”.

        That “Transformation” immensely benefitted the subdued “Slaves” to live a life (without knowing they are “Slaves”) with the “Curmps” that fell from that “Elite” class. Need I tell you “WHO” benefitted most from that “Imposed” transformation?

        A “BEGINNING” to transform that “Transformation” is in the offing.

        • 2
          0

          Sinalese only Buddhist country! When was this myth created? Ceylon or modern Sri Lanka was a country that was created by the British in 1833, by joining the then-separate Sinhalese and Tamil parts of the island, for their own economic convenience and strategic benefit. The coastal regions of the island and the northern parts of the island ( the former Kotte and Jaffna kingdoms) were part of the predominantly Tamil British colonial Madras Presidency from 1793 -1798. Many people do not know this fact of history. A new island colony was then created in 1833 after the fall of the interior Sinhalese/Tamil Kingdom of Kandy. By joining the then-separate Sinhalese and Tamil parts of the island Prior to this, other than brief periods of history, the island has never been united and had separate kingdoms and kings/chieftains, ruling and controlling separate parts of the island. Even the so-called Sinhalese kings were large of South Indian or local Tamil Naga heritage and ancestry. Hindu or Buddhist. It is only around 10AD that these Hindu and Buddhist Naga kings , started to identify themselves as Sinhalese. The North and East, as well as the northwest Chilaw/Puttalam coast until recently, has always been Tamil and the homeland of the native Eelam Tamils, largely ruled by Tamil kings and chiefs.

          • 2
            0

            So how can this island be a Sinhalese Buddhist state when large parts of it from ancient times had been the homeland of the Eelam Tamil nation and Hindu ruled by Tamil Hindu kings and chiefs? Trying to take advantage of what the British created in 1833 for their own convenience, which made them a majority on the whole island and obtained power due to this majority in the so-called unitary state in 1948. Until the Sinhalese were confined to the south, west and central parts of the island and never had control of the ancient Tamil lands to the north and east, which they now claim as theirs with concocted fake history. What if the British had not created a new colony called Ceylon in 1833 but had merged the entire island not just the coastal areas and the north with Tamil Majority Madras Presidency as they did before? A Tamil Hindu majority land? All these by the British had benefited the island’s Sinhalese but gravely disadvantaged the Eelam Tamil nation that this now facing structural genocide by the Sri Lankan state on the basis that the entity island is Sinhalese Buddhist only, when it never was. It is like stating Britain is only English Anglican.

  • 4
    1

    The Imperial powers need corrupt rulers who siphon off the wealth to their countries, so as to make those developing countries debt ridden and eventually so helpless and prepared to cow down to any sort of pressure that those Imperialists bring about. The MCC was shelved some time back and given the predicament that this country is in, do not be surprised if the traitor in power takes steps to please his masters.

  • 5
    3

    Before our sinnhala_man aka JVP parrot adds his comment calling your diatribe is excellent, I thought I would add the following comment. May you the readers be blessed with some brains.

    There is a plausible hypothesis that the outcome of LGE will favor MEDAMULANA dogs. However, although they did not score as much as in 2018, the decline in voters in their favor will not be significant. That means losers will still look like winners.

    Holding elections without building the stupid hegemonic nation-society will not make a difference.

    That’s for sure. It is my wish that all parties join hands and give support to work together temporarily or in this interim government for the sake of the nation.
    The JVP will not tolerate it. They can become champions at slaughtering their opponents like they did in 89-92, but anything else with them would be just a dream.
    Besides, they are not team workers. That may be the very reasons they were rejected by people all along.

    And Their malicious and vindictive nature is not ignored. Sometimes they will dream of a change in people who are only dreams.
    But believe me, even those who were punished by drowning in the Beira lake on July 9, 2022 are still not publicly standing up against Medamulana BPS.
    :

    • 5
      2

      Do not underestimate this Sri Lanka full of stupid people. The nature of hell is worst than appeared to be. The truth is the recent elections did not bring any good to this country.

      You may blame RW and the incumbents, but JVP options are still not clear to anyone.
      They also have no special relations with China. So how does a country without “oil or other rich resources” revive its economy? Do they have special connections with the rich Tamil diaspora? No.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29A0t7gXClU

      By bringing RAJAPAKSHE LOOT from abroad (30 billions )?
      According to the STAR report, that could take decades.
      https://star.worldbank.org/about-star

      JVP are world champions in charging and attacking opponents. However, there is no system in their heads, how to save the nation from that situation. Will the workers in the Middle East give them their due remittances as soon as they take power? no way.

  • 5
    0

    Let me pick the final ‘word’. I word it as ‘word’ for a good reason.
    The final words: How would the economy revive in such a climate?
    It is a question.
    No. It is a ‘word’, because it has the answer in the form of a question.
    Ameer Ali is quite convinced that there is no possibility of a quick economic revival.
    .
    Now my word.
    The $2.9 billion of IMF, though billions, is only for partial relief. The debt burden is not going away till the country improves its revenue in excess of its expenses.
    That possibility is a question mark with the present state of affairs.
    Investors surround themselves with men of economic mastery.
    Ranil cannot tell these to us, obviously.

    • 6
      0

      Nathan

      “The $2.9 billion of IMF, though billions, is only for partial relief. “

      Do we know how this amount will be divided, distributed, disbursed, … among the politicians, their lackeys, functionaries, armed forces …… and the fake religious organisations before it reaches intended destination?

  • 6
    1

    The final paragraph says it all. Certainly, reforms cannot prosper without public support but RW, who is in power without public approval, can redeem himself by cracking the whip & getting rid of undesirables, along with the advisory bunch of monks whose wisdom is abundantly clear when Hitler was considered a role model for leadership. Whether others agreed or not is immaterial because no one objected to this stupid & ignorant remark. Therefore, this lot won’t be missed & it would be even considered as fulfilling an IMF condition.

    RW has all the powers bestowed to him as President by the constitution. He won’t get elected, I am sure he knows that, therefore, doesn’t have to please the king makers & can bring in the reforms to combat corruption, waste, incompetence, & as a cost cutting measure, abolish the generous perks of Parliamentarians & slim down the bloated cabinet. He will be paving the way for a better set of future politicians & if he can really do that, I am sure the public support will increase exponentially but has he got the guts to prove he is above the current despicable lot? At least he can try, instead of accepting being branded as a selfish lacky of the Rajapakses.

  • 3
    1

    What the IMF is due to give (2.9 billion) is less that what India gave (4 billion). The price that is going to be exacted is more severe. The welfare system will be dismantled. Some features of it drained the coffers but free medicine for the poor and free education will also go. This will affect the very poor badly. It will drive more people abroad. Despite the 10% support, the middle class does not join protests. Ranil has effectively stopped it by eliminating petrol and gas queues. The police and the military are holding even against the well-fed bhikkus, lifted off unceremoniously, bereft of their robes and bereft of their dignity. The Batalande Kid is back. He has achieved what he wanted. He will achieve what his uncle wanted but could not- Sri Lanka as an American outpost.

  • 7
    1

    Raj-UK: “He doesn’t have to please the kingmakers…” But don’t you know that he has not only to please “The King” (Rajapakses) and his “Inner Court” to be in power? If he doesn’t adhere to what the “King” says, “134” votes in Parliament will be “Directed” against him and that is the “End”. That is how he added two more “Ministers” (Pavithra & Thondaman) to the Cabinet. Some more to come.

    Do you still have “HOPES” on this Ranil W?

    • 5
      0

      Simon
      I am not intelligent enough to analyse the SL constitution but in my understanding, the PPP bum suckers in Parliament, RW’s strongest critics in the past but now buddies & whose support RW desperately needs, can bring a no confidence motion against him, yet, the all-powerful President is somewhat protected by the constitution to abide his time. If that is the case, he can be ruthless & hold them accountable, at least, for mismanagement & incompetence. Slimy Sira has shown that there is no loyalty in current politics & he is not the only one. Therefore, RW need not safeguard the Rajapakses in gratitude & now that he has got to the top, he can kick the ladder. RW’s tenure is 2 years, no more, but he can at least start ‘draining the swamp’ & redeem himself of the poor public perception.

      In the absence of any credible contenders coming forward, RW is a glimmer of hope but I am not all that optimistic.

      Cont.

      • 5
        0

        Cont.
        I am not always up-to-date with the happenings in SL, therefore, thanks for enlightening me on the latest additions to the already bloated cabinet. I am sure many are aware that Thonderman is in the top 10 rich list & I wonder if the Inland Revenue is happy with his tax returns. Maybe it is to provide an opportunity for this financial wizard to make more money so that he can contribute more in taxes. As for Wanniarachi, the backward basket woman, maybe RW is hoping for some divine intervention through her ‘god fearing’ friends & associates. She maybe stock piling holy water already but could do better by jumping into the sea as she once said will do to save the country.

        • 5
          1

          Raj-UK: Thanks. The only way to get rid of the President is to “IMPEACH” him with a “No Confidence” motion passed in Parliament with a “2/3rd” majority. Rajapakses will never ever even think of supporting such a move because Ranil W is the only “Saviour” for them. That is why Ranil W was installed in that seat of power by “Rajapakses”.

          The next “Option” is to pass a resolution to “Dissolve” the Parliament and hold a “Parliamentary Election”. If at that election any opposition party gets a “2/3rd” majority then that Government could do the above.

          If not “Caravan” will move even though the “Dogs” bark.

          • 2
            0

            Then, when that happens (impossible to remove incumbent EP), then please consider that as the most favourable, emancipated and significant CONTRIBUTION OR GIFT TO THIS NATION, by the 6.9 MILLION VOTERS OF SL in 2019 and 2020, with the benefit of 2600+ years of culture and civilisation, who helped to install GR, Pohottuwa with 2/3rd majority to ENACT 20th and 21st AMENDMENTS, resultant FIASCO – not proportioned and unlimited!!!!!??
            TOTALLY AND ABSOLUTELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOLLY including Deprivation of essentials and liberties and starvation, instead of the PROMISED Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour – VAPORISED TO THIN AIR – BAD DREAMS!!!
            FUNNY STATE OF AFFAIRS in the great nation of Sri Lanka!!?? NOT surprising at all!!!????

  • 10
    1

    The IMF has forced the parasitic vermin headed by Ranil to incorporate into law, and implement the stolen assets recovery program run by the world bank and the united nations. However, it will not enable assets stolen earlier to be repatriated easily, even if the STAR officials set up shop in Sri Lanka to ensure there is full co-operation with regard to records and evidence. The governments of both major camps have colluded and connived to deny the people of their right to recover their money. It is only the new emerging national people’s power that has the will, pledges from former officials and bureaucrats to enable the process to succeed. The contemptible bastard in power will never relent until he is forcibly removed. Yes, a fuhrer indeed, and probably the worst in recent world history.

  • 4
    0

    Yes! In Germany it was Fuhrer. In Sinhala “Nayakathuma”. In Tamil as Prabhakaran was known “Thalaiver”. All are the same. All this is linked to the global political balance. The west was happy with the ouster of Gotabhaya and the arrival of Ranil. But it is now aware of the huge support the left (not the traditional but JVP, Peratugami etc) both in terms of the electoral as well as the support of the average soldier, who now would not hesitate to misuse their weapons. The left never thought they had a chance but they made use of the platform of non-violent protest in the name of “Aragalaya” to boost their position very well. Did the western world make a mistake? Would Julie Chang be given a thorough dressing down by her superiors for this miscalculation?

  • 6
    3

    For 75 precious years Sinhalese leaders governing the country since independence have learned that Sinhalese-Buddhist racist card is the best way to come to power, and stay in power too.

    Now Ranil mahthmaya is teaching a new trick to Sinhalese leaders: If somebody bankrupts the country by hook or crook, even if people vote you out, you can always come through the constitutional back door: You don’t even need to have elections for lack of funds!

    What a short cut to dictatorship! Aren’t the Sinhalese leaders cunning?

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