17 December, 2017

Blog

Come 2020: Maithri, Ranil Or Gota?

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

Come 2020: Maithri, Ranil or Gota? – Presidency: All options still on the table

Confucius say: “Even if people be made to follow right path, how they be made to understand it?” –Analects.

The old codger saw the deficiencies of democracy ages ago. Hence there is good reason why my previous columns dealt with unpredictability (17 September) and instability (24 September). We are nearing the end of 2017 and no one knows whether there will be a new constitution, whether the Executive Presidency will be retained and what the electoral system will be. The only two people (Ranil and Sirisena) who may have an inkling are tight lipped, or to be frank, I think they don’t know either. The options are manifold: (a) constitution/ no constitution, (b) executive/ semi-executive/ non-executive presidency, (c) candidates Maithri (who knows?), Ranil, Gota (dump US citizenship?), or a dark horse. If you multiply out the options, on paper there are twenty-four. Conversation among Colombo’s whisky sipping chattering classes savours these themes; lesser hoi polloi relish the topic relaxing on poya day playing asking-hitting (booruwa). The deluge of options is too much for one piece; so today’s offering is limited to just two matters; (a) assume executive presidency is retained in 2020; (b) parliamentary election outcome under any system.

These musings were kicked off by Rajan Philips’ much read and discussed column three weeks ago (“The Hounds of Law Keep the UNP and the Rajapaksas Nervous and Concerned” Sunday Island 10 September). I am tempted to extend his offering and speculate: “Has Maithri loosened the leash on commissions of inquiry, state prosecutors and commercial-crimes cops and turn the screws on both Ranil and the Paksas?” The first uncertainty is could Maithri be playing this game at all. Probably not, but if ‘yes’ there has to be a motive deeper than good governance. Were he to throw Ranil to the wolves and lose the UNP, how can he govern? Say he invites the Paksa-SLFP into his fold and say they turn up at his doorstep, he will still be short of a parliamentary majority. Perish the thought of the TNA, Muslim parties or JVP playing ball. So if he screws Ranil and the UNP, his game must to be to dissolve parliament at the earliest that the constitution permits. Rather, I should state it the other way; he will bide his time till then and roast Ranil and the UNP after that. As I said I am unable to guess Maithi’s plan, but Confucius say “A man cannot conceal himself for too long”.

The fire-Ranil gambit is contingent on Maithri having made up his mind to scuttle the new constitution – anodyne amendments excepted. He has already shown himself a false friend of the constitution hence he faces no psychological impediment, but he will fall foul of everybody to whom he gave false promises – that is the whole nation except the Paksa-SLFP and now his SLFP. He will also be putting his neck in a Paksa noose; dare he? Surely he is too cunning to play suicide games. Either way, now or in a year, the fire-Ranil gambit seems (to me) to be a dead end for Maithri; but let’s not write it off entirely; there may be dervish options I cannot fathom (unknown-unknowns).

Presidential options

Let’s move on and talk about presidential options if the executive presidency is not abolished by 2020. I will try to put aversions and preferences aside and clinically diagnose possible outcomes. I am making an effort to be as objective as I can in the context of prevailing uncertainties in evaluating likely outcomes. Confucius say “The cautious seldom err”.

Ok then, there is the three candidate case and the two candidate cases (one of the tree backs the third). A three cornered fight will be a walk over for Ranil who is confident of a 28% to 30% minority-vote – leeway to allow for Sinhala Catholic-Christian fluidity. Then even a quarter of the Sinhala-Buddhist vote sees him in the high 40s while the other two battle to divide say 55%. It will be difficult for Gota to press Maithri’s vote below 10%, though the latter will be third in a three-cornered contest. This case was easy to forecast (known-known).

More interesting are the possible one-to-one combats; Ranil backed by Maithri versus Gota; Maithri sponsored by Ranil against Gota; and option three, Gota with Maithri versus Ranil. I insist Gota cannot do better than Mahinda-2015 (inability to abuse state power and no minority support). To my numerically-challenged pseudo-Marxist critics I say, this is true arithmetically, algebraically or even if you have the aptitude for the vector calculus. It’s a known-known; Confucius say: “Those who know nothing never risk being misunderstood”.

A repeat of the 2015 arrangement won’t go down well with the UNP. I am a cynic, I think Maithri will like it, but it will be ‘no-no’ for the UNP base. Maithri as a ceremonial token is a non-issue, so no more about that. In any case this is irrelevant to the ‘Executive-Presidency-retained’ case.

The final challenging option is if Maithri cuts loose from the Ranil-Chandrika-JVP-JHU umbilical cord and throws his weight behind a unified-SLFP sponsored candidate Gota. Then the political scenario will look like this. The UNP is tainted by corruption, Ranil though not personally dishonest tarnished by blunders and bad judgement in appointments, the new constitution not enacted, and the economy in poor shape. Against this backdrop can Ranil pull it off against Gota?

I said clinical objectivity and not forgetting this, I think the 30% minority-community handicap that anyone starts off with against Gota, cannot be neutralised. If a strong non-Paksa, specifically not-Gota, SLFP candidates is found he/she will do better. Something of a known-unknown.  Juggling a discredited crony Tamil ex-diplomat, a cross-decorated Judas and an unheard of Muslim nobody on the Eliya platform will not seduce minority voters. Anecdotal feedback suggests that this caper on the Eliya stage has been counterproductive because the exhibits were implausible.

Parliamentary options

How will the various combinations fare in the tussle for seats in parliament? If there is a change to the electoral style (say 150 first-past-the-post constituencies and 75 proportional) it will be good nationally, but that matter is different from what I wish to say next. Whatever the alternatives in format and even if there is no change in format and the current all-proportional system is retained, it will not make a significant difference to the number of seats that the big three (UNP, Paksa-SLFP and Maithri-SLFP) take home in a three-cornered fight. Furthermore, conventional logic says the UNP will be at an advantage in a three-cornered and I can’t think of why conventional logic could be incorrect. If a tactical voting agreement materialises between the UNP and Maithri-SLFP it will leave the Paksa-SLFP led JO well short of a parliamentary majority. Let me repeat that these forecasts hold irrespective of whether the electoral architecture is changed or not.

The case where Maithri-SLFP and Pakksa-SLFP unify and take on the UNP is clearly the more complex case and my judgement is that the UNP will come off second best in this case. Mostly the reason is that Ranil and the UNP will be seen to have failed in controlling corruption, prosecuting previous corruption and most important the blame for the failure on the economic front will be laid squarely on Ranil’s shoulders; and that’s fair since the President has, most of the time, let the Prime Minister take charge of economic issues.

This brings me to a curious matter. I maintain that Gota is a dead duck for the presidency, but a unified SLFP (Maithri plus Paksa wings) will collect more seats in Sinhalese areas than the UNP. The minority vote in the North and East will go to Tamil and Muslim parties. Thus the opposition is better off jettisoning the Executive Presidency, which it is unlikely to secure, and supporting a new constitution with or without revised electoral architecture. The idiocy of the opposition, for which I am thankful, is magnified by its inability to comprehend that it is better off NOT salivating for an unreachable executive presidency and instead focussing on parliament.

The reason for the idiocy is obvious enough. It is so obsessed with racism that it sees a Tiger behind every palmyra plant and in an executive presidency it sees a Sinhala autocrat willing to subdue every form of Tamil dissent. Hence it cuts its nose to spite its face. Sun Tse say: “Never interrupt enemy when he is making mistake” – Art of War. So me happy if they keep making mistake.

Finally a few words about Burman religious bigotry and the massacre of Muslims; another example of narrow chauvinism. Amnesty released satellite images of an “orchestrated campaign” to burn Rohingya villages and evidence of security forces pushing Muslims out of the country. 400,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since violence began last month. They have long been persecuted in Burma as “illegal immigrants” (remember upcountry Tamils were kala-thonis till recently); denied citizenship though they have lived in Burma for generations, and their villages emptied (Sirima-Shastri Pact). Confucius reminds: “Before embarking on journey of revenge, dig two graves”.

The majority Burman population has no sympathy for Rohingyas, calls the Muslims terrorists (Liberation Tigers of Islamic Rohinyga!) and wants them evicted from the country. The army claims it is fighting terrorists, denies targeting civilians and says jihadists infiltrated communities and burnt down the villages. The BBC’s Jonathan Head who was in a group of reporters chaperoned by the army reported that villagers uniformly stated that rape and burnings were not done by the army; but officers always monitored the interviews. (Confucius would have said: “I didn’t say all this shit”).

Burma is going the way of Lanka and Aung San Su Ki, (learning from Sirisena?) is a shield against criticism of the army. Her immense moral authority could have impacted public opinion but she has chosen not to use it. She is afraid of an angry reaction from Buddhist nationalists just like our leaders ever since the 1950s. Maybe she fears the military may step in. Buddhist will support a coup if she angers them. Confucius say:  “To see the right and not to do it is cowardice”.

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Latest comments

  • 9
    5

    Nobody gets an opportunity to vote in 2020 as there won’t be any election in 2019/2020. —

    Early yesterday I posted a comment as follows (an extract) on Wimal’s website ( http://www.wimalweerawansa.lk ) which I wanted to cut and paste on Dayan’s article on the Constitution on CT, but forgot : —

    Quote:
    “…. Ranil has started very early pretending that he is getting ready for presidential election and then the general election. But in actual terms they are not going to hold those elections in 2020. They are only passing time.Then in 2020 nobody will get a chance. Wimal, I don’t say things for no reason. Sometimes, my mind is sharp like a blade and sometimes I can penetrate and see the future. No actually, that is an exaggeration. But I think my mind works overtime. Because I see RW and MS both are very cool. Too cool. So I thought something is cooking. Wimal, I want you to relax, empty you mind and then think about what I say here. Do you think I am crazy?… ” Unquote: —

    And now I saw a similar sentiment expressed in a different angle published in a Sinhalese newspaper for tomorrow. —

    So what I thought was correct. There is a hitch in Ranil and Maithree’s Draft Constitution Bill. Through that, they are trying to rob people’s democratic right to vote and elect a new President and a Parliament in 2020. —

    In other words, they are using the Draft Constitutional Bill to stay in power until 2025. Not bad hey? While our people are hanging onto “Unitary State” and “priority to Buddhism”, Ranil and Maithree are going for the most unscrupulous way to stay in power until 2025!!!

    No point of waiting. Wake up, Venerable Maha Sangha, Sinhalese, Buddhists!!!! You don’t know what going to happen under your nose. —

    C’mon, people let’s rise against the Draft Constitutional Bill and any change to the Constitution and thereby robbing all our democratic rights by Sri Lankan President and the Prime Minister. —

    The world should be aware of the despicable attempt by this government to deny democratic rights of citizens.

    • 7
      1

      None of them, but some one else from the civil society.

      More likely. lankens will finally do it leaving both known men home.

      That was the case in France today.
      But I am little doubtful to be honest.

      • 6
        3

        Punchiburampi

        I agree. People are fed up with the present lot (in and out) and looking for new faces outside politics.

        Leadership is not something people can give, it has to be earned and he should be a voice, not an echo.

        There is a saying that “Boiling water softens potatoes but same water hardens eggs.”

        Let’s hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

        • 3
          0

          People are not fed up, they have to learn see it right. They have been abused by MEDIA mafia to see things only in favour of MAHARAJA… North korean style brain wash by Rajapakshes have outreached masses. The very same situiaton was with Thai Premier who lately got convicted jail sessions. Please read and make aware your knowledge Champoo.. alone just licking the balls of them would not bring you forward.

          Facts are that MEGALOs left behinds the mountaneous debts.

          Current men would nto want to talk them louder as the truths confirm them since they are feard of being caught by not being capable of handling things.

          They consider the latter more than revealing the truths.

          Revealing the truths are being covered by current SLFP leadership too, just for because they would not get diminished when considering the all high profile frauds mastered by the MAHADHENAMUTTA Rajapkashe.
          Unfortunately, Mr Sirisena has to suffer by the high crimes

          • 1
            4

            Darunuwathie Punchihewa

            Yeah, it is an underestimation, people are not fed up. They are angry. By the time of the election, they will be more angrier than now.

            “…They have been abused by MEDIA mafia to see things only in favour of….”

            What a joke??? This government came into power by abusing MEDIA including social media. Yahapalanaya were the first who taught people how to abuse social media. What goes around comes around. Who can blame?

            Thai premier was not sent to jail for stealing from public coffer but putting a system in place that didn’t work as planned which eventually cost a huge loss to the country. It was beyond her control. She took a risk to gain more profit to the country but failed.

            I am glad to see that you ‘have learnt to see things right” and that you are awaiting a jail term for Sri Lankan PM who plundered the Central Bank by appointing his buddy, a Singapore national as the governor and using his son-in-law’s company to store all robbed money.

            Unlike the former Thai PM, the day-light robbery of the Central Bank masterminded by your PM was to gain personal profits to him, his cohorts and to use as bribes to buy votes in the Parliament.

            • 1
              0

              Champa,

              we know that they have appointed you to lick their balls for any cost.

              Besides, investigating bank plunder or whatever you may call it, is just less than 1% percent of all the high profile stealings your Rajapakses are believed to have taken away from the national assets.

              You will never be successful making every efforts to cover up them.

              In coming months, we will see it GLASS clear.

              Jaya niyathayi. !

              • 0
                3

                Darunuwathie Punchihewa

                The loss is trillions now. But you think CB bond scam only amounting to 1%??? I feel sorry for your knowledge in mathematics and your inability find balls of your leader. Do you know the direction of the vector is from its tail to its head. So if you can’t find balls at the tail, please check the head.

                • 0
                  0

                  This is not the time to find balls of the leader.. so argument sake lets say the one you refereed does not have balls.
                  But that does not take country anywhere. If you think you can win your point by accusing personally on a person due to one’s physical inability. Then crystal clear your level of understand of humanity within you.
                  Again let the commission to find out the truth. Why are you jumping and making your opinion before the commission.

                  If you say RW has given instruction to then governor to steal money from CB with his son in law, let the commission find the guilty party and punish and send the politician home. This is the culture we as sri lankans need. Not to praise one clan…or one party just because a person is your favorite or because you are benefited of corruption.

                  The joke is people who robbed the nation are NOW accusing others are robbers. So people like you go around naked…siting and punching spreading the hatred.

                  The difference is between YOU Champa ! majority of the sri lankan patriots are against All corruption, whether it is green or blue. That is the gut feeling of patriotism, beyond your political affiliation.

                  I sometime wonder rather than looking one leader’s balls, just go front of mirror and see if you have any or at least back bone…. to say wrong is wrong…. and thief is a theif… green, blue or red…

    • 1
      4

      This government didn’t introduce democracy to Sri Lanka. They only strengthened certain elements of the democracy. That doesn’t mean they have exclusive rights to change the Constitution to achieve personal political ambitions. —

      I rarely criticize the President as I support Executive Presidency (title), but my country comes first and I cannot agree with his opinion about Draft Constitutional Proposals.

      President has said that there is no clause in the Draft Constitutional Bill that divide the country and the proposals only reflect ideas and suggestions. This is hilarious. If they are mere ideas, then they should not have been included as solid recommendations in the Draft Proposals. There is one recommendation to do away with the concurrent list, in other words to give supreme powers to PCs. This is the main concept in the proposals. Once the concurrent list is abolished, the Centre has no power over Provincial Councils which will eventually become Provincial Parliaments and the Provincial Parliaments will then elect Premiers with majority votes of Members of Provincial Parliament (MPP). I’ve written about this few days ago, therefore no intention to repeat. —

      Sinhalese never made any request to change the Constitution. Some politicians proposed to abolish the Executive Presidency but there was no wide ranging request or approval from the public. —

      13/A is now a long perished idea. The present government has provided ample proof that several parties including Tamil MPP can work together. Although the role he played is not known, the Opposition Leader who is a part and parcel of the government, is from a Tamil Party. —

      Therefore, there is absolutely no reason to change the Constitution according to whims and fancies of a Prime Minister who was in the Opposition for 29 years, a former presidential chimera, NGO slaves and political orphans.

      Contd’ 1/2

      • 2
        0

        We want rule of law, democracy. Executive President does not mean anything for this .

        I am sure you might have fought against Executive President and and open economy in 1983 till 1994 ( if you are old enough to remember) . People who fought against all these policies and the constitution, are now wanted to them all same.
        Since 1977-1994, a party in the government had a policy and implemented( people argue for and against)
        But 1994 -2015 what was the party in the government and what is their economic policy. NONE !!! What reforms, and progressive policies implemented and brought to public.
        We expect elected government to do the progressive policies and reforms but may not be the best all the time. No government is elected for life time.( if you believe democracy !!) and no government policies are the best .
        Policies and reforms need to be changed and it should be progressive and relevant. So we have to choose some and try to implement. Everybody in the government should try to do their best and people must pressurize their elected representatives for the right action and what is better for people. Not the best. Social experiments are action based on assumptions… So do not expect the best government but work for better government for every 5 years in sri lanka. So we will have bright future for our children.

        PS: Patriotism in public comes in two ways. Either one is very poor , uneducated and one is ignorant and Hippocratic. If one is economically well and educated then patriotism is within ones heart and will contribute to the motherland silently and spread harmony.

        • 0
          4

          As per your opinion , if patriotism is uneducated and poor, treachery is educated and wealthy? Right? On the contrary, patriotism is a quality, a strong moral value which is loud not silent as it is coupled with bravery. Patriots are fierce fighters, they can never be suppressed.

          The change of mind of the majority who voted for “White” Swan is the best example. Their dissent against the government was felt by the entire country through Wimal’s rallies which built an independent and voluntary people’s fortress irrespective of party politics who remain active to defeat this government.

          All your assumptions are wrong. Like the majority, I paid attention to politics only after 2015 and actively voiced my opinion since February 18, 2015.

          I don’t believe in hearsay. I’m talking about the facts discovered by myself on the matters prior to 2015, and the rest I witnessed through my own eyes since January 2015.

          As you have mentioned somewhere, people didn’t vote “to do away with Executive Presidency.” That is an utter lie.

          The “White Swan” talked against corruption, fraud and bribery of the previous government. People were fed up with Mahinda, his brothers, his sons and his hooligans like Sajin/Mervyn who took liberty to run the country amok. People voted against Mahinda as a protest to his lack of concern about the weak rule of law, executive encroachment into the judiciary and hauteur, suppression, intimidation, abduction, assault and murder (yet to prove) against their critics/opponents.

          The present situation in the country, the dissent against the President/PM/Government aka “Black Swan”, clearly demonstrates that Sinhalese value the sovereignty of their motherland, Buddhism and war-heroes MORE THAN democracy and rule of law. Therefore, any move against the above, which are close to the hearts of Sinhalese, will be fiercely protested.

          • 2
            0

            “As per your opinion , if patriotism is uneducated and poor, treachery is educated and wealthy? Right?”

            Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel, best place for crooks, murderers, war criminals, child molesters, thieves, ……………………….. to hide. Since 1972 Chapter II of the constitution is the very good place to hide all Sinhala/Buddhist fascists.

            Sex workers can hide themselves in sil redda and Chapter II of the constitution.

          • 0
            0

            What a joker .. You are really funny guy/gal or… any one that matter..

            Wimal is a patriot as per your intellectual capacity.

            I will remain silent because I am talking to an hypocritical idiot.

        • 0
          3

          Chandike

          Abolishing the Executive Presidency undermines the sovereignty of Sri Lanka.

          As clearly seen now, the democracy in the Parliament sucks.

          The Speaker is a string puppet.

          If there is a Prime Minister like Ranil who sells his soul to retain power, the international community can easily manipulate him to work according their agenda, as the PM is not hesitant to buy votes of Parliamentarians in exchange of billions, to pass Bills that are detrimental to the country.

          If there wasn’t an Executive President, where will be Sri Lanka today???

          • 0
            0

            Exactly !!! as you pointed out people are scared of name(s). For God sake, be objective in your argument !. This is not about Ranil or any one else. There will be many sri lankans who will aspire to be the prime minister of the country. RW will be there for a short time.. no one will hold positions for ever…

            What happen to SL since 1947 -1977 with Ex. president.??? any thing happen to the country and the people ?????

          • 0
            0

            Champa… are you the person who appear in Dilith Jayweera…media establishment.. talking nothing.. with no principal.

      • 0
        0

        By the way did you read the draft constitution proposals?? For not agreeing the proposal?? Please share a copy of what you read.

        I though proposal is a something people can agree or disagree… just like any other proposal.

        Can’t help , some are not use to this type of stuff… they like old stuff..like 2005-2014

      • 1
        0

        So please define democracy and compare it with the days of Rajapakshe to date , can you ?

        You as one who has been biased to former men, would not drop any word against them.

        How dare you to add the kind of thoughts ?

        Not a single journalist of course execpt HIRU and Dherana men lived in the country without life threats in the high days of EXECUTIONER Gota.

        All these you think people have forgotten right ?

        No ways Champa, you efforts will die down as a glass wall snaps. in the days to come.
        Wait and see, people power sent them home for ever, there is no way return through A BUD or by any force.

        JO men would have bury under the carpet once Udaya Gonthadipila and Wimal Buruwasnse are caught by laws. These are eminent and we ve been waiting to have a party the kind of you guys did it at the time, you thought Rajapakshe won the war…

        Taking the lives of anyone by any leader is unethical, please yo better explain them the realities.
        We dont want roads, we dont want nelum pokuna, or other play grounds, we just need a country with law and order and disipline.
        Where justice is served not as the manner Ballige putha ruined everything. But a manner as is now you can are compelled to see.
        Bank investigatios will come to end. Then Rajapakshes and their turn will be the next. God save srilanken from lanken kind of extremists.

        • 0
          3

          Samuel Jayaweera

          Really, you don’t want Nelum Pokuna? Then how about Lotus Tower and Port City??? Where do you live? Ranil and Maithree are competing with each other to get the credit for Lotus Tower and the Port City once they are completed.

          I have no intention to reply to the rest.

          Rajapaksas time is over. You are very much behind. Stop living in the past. Come to the present and think of the future.

    • 3
      4

      Contd’2/2

      President has reportedly said that “Government is paying prime attention to provide solutions for the problems faced by people in North/East..” —

      Mr. President, this needs clarification:-
      :
      1. What are the problems faced by people in North/East that cannot be solved WITHOUT changing the Constitution or granting extreme powers to PCs which will ultimately divide the country into 9 States???

      As far as I know, land issue is resolved to a larger extent amidst strong objections by Sinhalese, even by recklessly removing Army camps from most strategic locations. That means, there’s no need to change the Constitution to carry out an activity already in place.

      2. What other problems are there exclusive to people in North/East that are foreign to people in other areas?

      Poverty, unemployment, housing, education, clean water, healthcare; all these are common to people in other areas too.

      Tamil MPP are responsible for the issues mentioned above who haven’t done absolutely nothing to address them. There was an article about steel houses to people in the North to which I vehemently objected. When there is extreme weather conditions, how could people live in prefab-steel houses? There should be bulk insulation to reduce outside heat/noise penetrating to inside which will triple the building cost. It is inhumane to force Tamilpeople in the North to live in steel houses when the government can easily provide them with brick and mortar houses at a lower-cost. —

      3. Northern Provincial Council is a complete failure. Funds allocated to them are underutilized, I repeat, underutilized, which is a crime. Granting more powers to operate on their own will only make people suffer severely. —

      4. Economywise North/East can’t stand alone. What will happen is India and LTTE diaspora will take over both Provinces easily.

    • 7
      1

      I hope your predictions would not come true. If it did, I bet the people will take a leaf out of French revolution and deal with the corrupt politicians in one sweep.

      • 1
        2

        Thrishu

        Yep. Definitely people are not going to tolerate denying their right to have elections in 2019/2020, after waiting for 5 years patiently.

        I seriously think that the term of a President and a Prime Minister should be strictly limited to one term.

        That means one person can be the Prime Minister only once and the President only once which is fair.

        Then most importantly they will not engage in corruption, fraud and abuse of power as a PM or a President as they know by heart that they have to go home after one term.

    • 1
      0

      As we all know 2015 Jan 8 Election was to away with Executive Presidential system. What ever the assumptions made by so called intellectuals,political pundits, majority people do not need Presidential Election again in SL.

      A humble request to writer of this article and other readers and intellectuals is that DO YOUR PART AS A CITIZEN rather than looking at all what is happening around you through your own glasses.

      A responsible citizen, civil society shall/should not talk about and waste energy about future elections, instead must mobilize and educate each other to get the best out of elected government for the period elected. This is democracy at work. Why are we so obsessed with Elections????.

      Why don’t WE push the government to get things done. Implement the right policies,strength the rule of law. Mobilise and educate people about these things, rather wasting your time ……

  • 8
    2

    Shouldn’t the expectation that Aug San Suu Kyi would rescue Burma/Myanmar from the military be viewed in the context of her being the daughter of GENERAL Aung San who was assassinated in an internal conflict in the ruling military junta of the time?

    • 5
      2

      Emil van der Poorten

      FOREMOST POSITION FOR BUDDHISM – PRESIDENT
      Daily News -Saturday, September 30, 2017

      The president has already found/arranged a good place to hide himself and his fellow crooks. How far-sighted he is.

  • 10
    16

    I remember this guy saying in print in many places, including Tamil Net, that the LTTE’s air arm revealed such dimensions of scientific-technological capability that the Sri Lankan military would be unable to win the war anytime soon and indeed anytime in the foreseeable future.

    Prabhakaran was dead and his military machine crushed underfoot out a few months later!

    Quite the omniscient pundit and analyst! How did the vector calculus go then, Prof?

    • 12
      1

      Surely Dayan, Prof Kumar David’s ‘vector calculus’ (whatever it is)went where it should have.
      Several countries waited 30 years or so but no sign of victory but saw filthy filthy filthy rich proliferating in the south. They saw instead a corrupt-free, egalitarian, just and strong government emerging – something unknown. They joined hands and defeated LTTE. Remember Gota himself admitted that he won a war for India.
      Dayan keep the “Keep the bring back MR going”. Lankans will survive slaving in MidEast.

    • 7
      3

      Con artist commenting.

    • 17
      4

      Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka: I remember you in print in many places contradicting your self to lick the arse of the govt of the day to get some favour. Kumar David may have his short comings, as every human being has, but he is not after ministerial posts.

      • 4
        0

        Rajash: “but he is not after ministerial posts”. True, KD has an affinity for CEB contracts.

        • 0
          7

          EDward: why did KD ask CT to delete you ?

        • 2
          1

          May I know what CEB contracts?
          When he was in the CEB as a member of the Board decades ago, it was not an attractive position money-wise. He was there for political reasons you may say.
          He has his faults.
          He has made and still makes political mistakes of judgment.
          But he is no thief and does not say things to please people and thereby enrich himself.

          • 2
            1

            SJ – agree

      • 4
        1

        Rajash – currently this bugger is only sniffing and washing Medamulana Meeharaka’s loin cloth!

    • 3
      6

      The important thing is how he applied calculus to one or two data points ?

    • 10
      4

      War monger public racist

      VP the psychopath is dead and gone his military machine had been crushed thanks to Hindians.

      You will do well to remember liberation of Bangladesh and the surrender of 90,000 Pakistani war criminals, …….

    • 3
      1

      “Quite the omniscient pundit and analyst!”

      I remember this so called political Analyst jumping the gun after reading a UN resolution few years ago :actually, it was yet another blunder which this bias pundit had uttered and got away easily. Remember supporting the draconian 18 A , then denying , the list goes on . irony is ;still ,some people take this single track minded (pseudo) political analyst seriously .what a pity!

    • 2
      0

      Dr. Jayathilleka, sad thing in this land is so called intellectuals like you voice your opinion based the color of the glass you wear in a particular day and a period. You have never used your intelligence for the betterment of the country and do the right thing.
      You favoritism and being bias to one person or a group is more visible than your intelligence and knowledge.
      Write minded people do not believe what you write or what you say. You lost everything except Dr. in front of your name.

  • 6
    7

    KUMAR DAVID: Your writings on Myanmar problem are all lies. It looks you do not read properly and your readings are only western propaganda. with respect to sri lankan elections and Maithri’s silence for five years, I think the solution is ask the govt to replace it right now. Maithri has liad an eg in 2015. HE is sitting on that until 2020. His burning issue for the country is he doe snot how to by pass Mahinda Rajapakse’s nuiscance. Ranil is a just failed product of that so called Colombo elite getting their dumb children to study LAw and get some thing or go to Agricultural college and become a planter, that product. It looks Ranil was caught for his failrue as a leader. IT says, it is either Ravi karunanayake had proposed Arjun Mahendran and Arjun Mahendran knows exactly wht happened inthe Central Bank day light robbery case. H”e is scared to expose the truth. Ranil becaome the victim and he oes want to expose it. All rumours. anyway, FCID is history. Money Launderers, those who registered tgeir businesses in virgin islans are still trying ot prime ministers and possibly more. You know some of it. NO FCID, nothing will come out. It is Ranil who said that Hambanthota to be a white elephant and delayed. What was the lost. Instead he opened more liquor shops and even distillaries. Itis the same Financial port city. I heard, he has done better things.. who knows.

  • 3
    1

    Edward

    This is the same guy who told us in one of his previous “analyses” that ‘ After all Ranil & CBK are liberals’. Guess he did not understand any tensor calculus.

  • 0
    5

    So….the bottom line…….Ranil is the next President!! Hurrah……………(to Kumar)………

  • 5
    4

    Mr. Sumanthiran MP would be an excellent good candidate . He is tri lingual , educated , articulate and very intelligent – a far cry from the present lot of self serving , corrupt, rotters. I would certainly vote for him .

    • 3
      3

      The Oracle

      Give me one example of Sumanthiran’s untiring commitment for the betterment of Tamil people in the North?

      At least a single proposal to uplift the living standards of people in the North initiated by him?

      • 0
        0

        Chim(pa), you idiot and a bloody scoundrel hooker, Sumanthiran was not just elected to take care of Tamils, but he was elected to take care of every constituent in his riding. You dumb f*&k, you are are so vile and racist, you cannot look beyond a race.

        • 0
          0

          CT Editors: This Vassal – TAmil from the North is abusing people. The other one is NATIVE VEDDA: Is this your publication policy too ?. Why you have double standards ?

  • 1
    2

    Ranil will be PoSL and Ruwan will be the PM if the present idiotic voting trend does not change drastically.

  • 3
    10

    Mao once said to the ultra-leftists: “You say you want to make a revolution but you don’t know where the bourgeoisie is! the bourgeoisie is in the party!’

    Similarly, Prof wants to knock Gota out at a presidential election and he’s sure the Yaha candidate can do so, but he doesn’t even know WHEN the presidential election is!

    Its 2019, man, not 2020. The 19th amendment clearly specifies that the presidential term is 5 years inclusive of the present incumbent. therefore elections have to be held one month before the end of his term. That’s late 2019. Didn’t the vector calculus help you that one either?

    Tick tock, tick tock…

    • 5
      3

      “Mao…..”—bullshit
      Budha once said…. go and read it.

      • 5
        2

        Anpu

        Mao also believed the Intellectuals needed to be re-educated.

        Would you like to send dishonest “Intellectuals”, smart ass patriots, public racists, war mongers, ……………….. to Beijing boot camp for internet junkies. Sometimes the inmates are forced to “march” 40 KM under 40C temperature.

    • 5
      2

      War Monger, War Crime Denier, Patriotic Public Racists

      Convention on the Non-Applicability of Statutory Limitations to War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity

      Article I

      No statutory limitation shall apply to the following crimes, irrespective of the date of their commission:

      (a) War crimes as they are defined in the Charter of the International Military Tribunal, Nürnberg, of 8 August 1945 and confirmed by resolutions 3 (I) of 13 February 1946 and 95 (I) of 11 December 1946 of the General Assembly of the United Nations, particularly the “grave breaches” enumerated in the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 for the protection of war victims;

      (b) Crimes against humanity whether committed in time of war or in time of peace as they are defined in the Charter of the International Military Tribunal, Nürnberg, of 8 August 1945 and confirmed by resolutions 3 (I) of 13 February 1946 and 95 (I) of 11 December 1946 of the General Assembly of the United Nations, eviction by armed attack or occupation and inhuman acts resulting from the policy of apartheid , and the crime of genocide as defined in the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, even if such acts do not constitute a violation of the domestic law of the country in which they were committed.

      Article II

      If any of the crimes mentioned in article I is committed, the provisions of this Convention shall apply to representatives of the State authority and private individuals who, as principals or accomplices, participate in or who directly incite others to the commission of any of those crimes, or who conspire to commit them, irrespective of the degree of completion, and to representatives of the State authority who tolerate their commission.

    • 4
      4

      “A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush”

      Gotabaya has to give up his US citizenship in order to contest the election. The Rajapakshes, very especially Gota has completely lost the minority support, the Muslims, the Tamils and the Sinhala Christians know very well that Gota is a Sinhala-Buddhist Racist. Whipping up majority Sinhala-Buddhist pseudo-Patriotism and Racism to win the majority votes for the Rajapakshes is a thing of the past, it will not work all the time. There is a large number of Sinhala-Buddhists who do not support Gota (the way they support Mahinda) because of the White Van culture and many other issues. If it is a contest between two people Ranil and Gota, then of course Ranil will lose as usual but if Maithree also contests, Gota will never stand a chance. He will lose his US citizenship as well as the Election. There is also talk in town that before the next presidential election, Gota may go to jail for prison massacre and for robbing (Avant-garde case and mig purchasing case). Unlike Mahinda who still has enough support, Gota is not very popular even among the Sinhalese.

      This Pakshe’s feet licking poodle can say or predict anything but has he ever said/predicted or analysed anything properly? The pakshes know how to use this educated fool and then throw him out like a used condom.

    • 3
      3

      It is sad that this bourgeoisie have to rely on Mao for even for a child at the age of 5.

    • 3
      1

      Tick tock tick tock Dayan. You are quoting Mao without ever reading what he wrote.
      Tell me about this ‘vector calculus’. Is it a mosquito vector borne disease?
      As to whether this disease will spread late in 2019 or early 2020 is a trivial detail.

    • 0
      0

      Dr… is upset some one wrote about RW over Gota, Because you are the campaign manager for Gota’s Eliya… because you are in the dark.

  • 3
    0

    KD are you experiencing an electrical short circuit???
    There is no come 2020……..
    It is western advice make it 2025……………………….

    No more polls or democracy………………….You could be appointed Governor for the North untill 2025.
    Hurry submit your profile to be considered.

  • 3
    1

    Kumar David is the same guy who took credit for the so called “Common Candidate”. Moreover, David justified his support of Ranil & CBK, shamelessly stating ” after all CBK & Ranil are liberals”. Even Phillip G a more respected Marxist never justified his joining the UNP with such lame excuses. Guess David never got the hang of Vector Calculus.

    What is evident is that former bourgeois Marxists remain loyal to their class & caste to ensure the preservation of their privileges. They do not wish to be disturbed during their dotage, when they sip beer & watch cricket on big screen TV – especially when they get paid by the ruling class with generous expense accounts and handouts.

  • 3
    0

    Prof. Kumar David: “Come 2020: Maithri, Ranil, Gota?”. NO. Not anyone of them. We have had enough of them PLUS many others who claim years and years of experience. All of them have failed us and brought nothing but misery. For you “Professor”, what you are telling us in this narration could be a “Prophecy” that suites you and many other such “Professors”; but the “Simple Simions” of this country need a “Big Change” to send all those named by you and many, many other to OBLIVION. So now is the time for all you “Professors” to be alive to that NEED and DEMAND of those “Simple Simions” of this country and redraft and advocate new “Prophesies”.

  • 2
    2

    KUMAR DAVID: I think on purpose you rpublished false news about Myanmar Problem. Read this article. On the 15th of September the dead bodies of a family were discovered by Burmese security forces In Mayu Mountain Rakhine state. The family are believed to be Daingnet minorities. The murders have been blamed on the Arakanese Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA, formerly Harakah al Yakin) a terrorist group with links to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

    Myanmar’s Rakhine State has experienced a wave of violence since ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) terrorists attacked security forces on the 25th of August killing 10 police officers, 1 soldier, 9 security officers and several civilians.

    The ARSA attacks were clearly timed to coincide with the report before the UN General Assembly of the Advisory Committee on Rakhine led by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. Dr Annan was appointed by the Burmese government to oversee an independent investigation of violence in the troubled region.

    Numerous eyewitness reports in Myanmar say terrorists set fire to villages provoking an exodus, while others, including the Western corporate media, say the fires were lit by the Burmese military (Tatmadaw). There is no conclusive proof of who is responsible for the tragic exodus of Myanmar’s ethnic Bengali Muslim communities from North Rakhine State. But former US chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy in Burma, Pricilla Clapp contradicted US agencies when she told France 24 News that she believed the Takfiri terrorists were responsible for the burning of villages as well as laying land mines. Search for this article, because CT is sometimes reluctant topublish those.

    • 2
      0

      Pricilla Clapp is essentially narrating Suu Kyi’s story with little concrete evidence while making woolly statements on what could have happened. She just keeps repeating that there are terrorists.
      Other news reports are not so certain about the claims by the state.
      *
      I wonder who pays this piper!

  • 1
    1

    Dr.DJ,
    I think when Prof DK wrote that article “Taraki ” was eliminated as you and your friend Tamara envisaged. Who knows both Tamara & you could have mis led Prof DK through third parties that SL do not have the military strength to crush the LTTE.

    Also you could have advised GoRa how to seek foreign help including India to eradicate LTTE together with the civilians whom they kept in the no fire zone.

  • 1
    1

    In 1952 SWRD B broke away from UNP and formed SLFP. In due course the leftists got decimated, trade unionism is a thing of the past (only GMOA uses trade union) but the language/religion grew and grew. We now have UNP/SLFP coalition which is a natural in Lankan politics. By design or by evolution we have this Hobson’s choice in late 2019 or early 2020 or later.
    Gota is a visionary. He copied the Burmese Junta. The Junta released Wirathu and helped him and the foundation of the 969 madhouse. Gota helped BBS to set up shop.
    India has now found a strange ally in Gota. India has adopted a rabid anti-Rohingya policy. Gota is acceptable to India.
    So Kumar David, forget the new constitution. It will never take off!

    • 2
      1

      K.Pillai

      Are you preparing yourself to live in a fully fledged Sinhala/Buddhist Fascist state under renaissance man Dr Gota?

      • 1
        1

        Native Vedda
        I will reply after taking my tongue out of my cheek.

    • 0
      1

      KP: “In due course the leftists got decimated, trade unionism is a thing of the past”
      *
      The Old Left committed political suicide. They had everything going with the 21 Demands of the Joint Trade Unions and the ULF in 1963.
      *
      I do not want to repeat the sordid story of how the LSSP sold out to the Sirima Bandaranayake government, and how the Lake House inspired ‘coup’ that brought down the government.

  • 1
    1

    KD: This is the second part of that article. This article is written by an american journalist oublished in an american news bulletin. It includes the inforamtion provided by the american Ambassador to Myan mar to the French Newspaper. IT is all by Saudi Arabia Traned Pakisthani terrorists. Westernmedia does not pub;ish the truth even thought Myanmar govt gives them information. It is the same campaignthat happened during the LTTE war. I think you read only the western media information and write scholarly articles. ————-https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-is-responsible-for-ethnic-cleansing-in-myanmar/5611486

  • 2
    1

    Kumar David ::: “Come 2020: Maithri, Ranil or Gota? – Presidency: All options still on the table.”

    True. These options will remain on the table and never be lifted to the Highest Office.

    The majority of people will never vote for Ranil or Maithree again. Gotabhaya, if contested will receive less than 20%. Angry voters will definitely vote for an unknown to teach a lesson to politicians.

    Maithree, Ranil and Gotabhaya should follow the following advice by Sun Tzu:

    “If a battle cannot be won, do not fight it.” – Sun Tzu.

    • 0
      0

      Also said “know you enemy better” Do not attack when they are prepared. Do not allow them to mobilize… show them you are week but you are strong….

  • 2
    1

    Dr. DAYAN JAYATILLEKA
    “WHEN the presidential election is!
    Its 2019, man, not 2020. ……… That’s late 2019. Didn’t the vector calculus help you that one either? “

    BIG DEAL? Nitpicking nerd ! Behaving like a Primary School boy. Boorish . GROW UP man, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.

    • 0
      0

      Well said…

  • 1
    1

    Why people want to talk about new constitution and Why Ranil and some of his cohorts want a new constitution when amendments can complete it ?. Who wants the new constition. One american Senator told that they wrote the constitution for Sri lanka. What is going on ? why Should Ranil be allowed to go through what he isplanning to do ?

  • 1
    0

    The pertinent question,that is utmost in the minds of SL Electorate that would figure prominently in any future election is the total failure and the deceitful attitude of the present two leaders who virtually striking their breasts promised the nation that they would bring all corrupt politicians and their cohorts in the Rajapaksa regime before the Law and all plundered assets of the country would be recovered from where ever they are hidden. This is exactly what the country’s greater majority yearned for. Between then and now what is the state of Governance in the country. We heard the unbelievable and shocking news about the President’s secret discussion with the defected and defeated Rajapaksa group and we heard the startling promise made by Wejedasa then Minister of Justice in parliament that he would not allow beaten Rajapaksa to be brought before the Law. These two incidents are ungrateful and painful slaps on the voters to say the least. To make such a high handed comment or statement he must have had the blessings of the PM. While many a underhand and conspicuous deals were taking place the two leaders seemed to be busy otherwise.The Central bank bond issue is at PM’s door step , we hope and pray that his hands are clean. Anyway this may be the reason why he cannot discipline the UNP caucus. This issue may or may not end up in forgotten limbo. These are not simple issues to be swept under the carpet. The electorate is wide awake and are watching every step of the Govt. with regard to issues of corruption .In a coming Election Govt. cannot talk anymore of financial crime or rule of law or for that matter on good governance as a whole. There is a severe indictment against the Govt.on handling of State finances by politicians in general and Ministers in particular. However there is still a ray of hope for the Govt. if the two leaders agree to forge ahead with honesty and dedication. Rid the country of corrupt elements who are still manipulating the system, overhaul the entire Govt. Machinery beginning from Civic representatives and entire fabrics of Govt. service and put all laws in motion without fear or favour. Are you two leaders of that calibre? We think there is no other way to redeem the country or yourselves. Any other strategy aimed at manipulating the issues will only be short lived and the country will be back in square one sooner than later

  • 0
    0

    As we all know 2015 Jan 8 Election was to away with Executive Presidential system. What ever the assumptions made by so called intellectuals,political pundits, majority people do not need Presidential Election again in SL.

    A humble request to writer of this article and other readers and intellectuals is that DO YOUR PART AS A CITIZEN rather than looking at all what is happening around you through your own glasses.

    A responsible citizen, civil society shall/should not talk about and waste energy about future elections, instead must mobilize and educate each other to get the best out of elected government for the period elected. This is democracy at work. Why are we so obsessed with Elections????.

    Why don’t WE push the government to get things done. Implement the right policies,strength the rule of law. Mobilise and educate people about these things, rather wasting your time ……

  • 1
    1

    I am very disappointed that Marxists continue to have faith in Persons rather than on issues.despite the lessons learnt in the 2015 regime change and international experiences.. Lenin was reported to have said when his own brother was involved in an assassination attempt that this was not the way.

  • 1
    1

    Come 2020: Maithri, Ranil Or Gota? None of the the above. I’ll vote for Shyamon Jayasinghe :p

  • 0
    1

    Why Maithri, Ranil or Goata?
    Why not Kumar D?

  • 1
    1

    Vector Calculus of Dr.Dayan J. is just this…..
    Dabba Squared Y upon Dabba Squared X = 0……A Saddle Point!
    Young Dayan was thrown off the horse saddle and all,on Jan.8th 2015!

    • 0
      1

      Pygs
      I think that you are counting on DJ’s knowledge or otherwise of mathematics.

  • 2
    0

    Come 2020. it will be…..

    Old Mother Lanka
    Went to the cupboard,
    To give the poor people a bone;
    But when she got there
    The cupboard was bare,
    And so WE the Poor People had none.

    How depressing to contemplate the choice that awaits us.

  • 0
    0

    SJ.
    Your line about Prof:AKD……
    But he is no thief and does not say things to please people and thereby enrich himself….
    I agree SJ, he is anything but a thief.
    However, what I would like to know is if I SAY THINGS TO PLEASE PEOPLE can I be rich and at the same time not be a Thief?
    After all it is nice to have the cake as well as eat it!

    • 0
      0

      Saying things to please people can have several motives, of which some are rather innocent.
      One can be dishonest when saying things to please people, but to become a thief involves a little more.
      My complaints about AKD are political and I have challenged his judgment on many issues for the past fifty years, although he contributed to my ideological shift to the left.
      He is not an opportunist either, but his pragmatism has many a pitfall.
      *
      BTW, have you tried having one part of the cake and eating the other part?

  • 0
    0

    No elections in 2020 as paralysed cant do action, however hard they try. Gota should join MS or RW party first, get a power position to act., give justice to SAITM like KDU by giving internship, and improve country, as MARA crowd will not make it just yet as sons immature robbers.

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