By Vipula Wanigasekera –

Dr. Vipula Wanigasekera

As Sri Lanka approaches its next presidential election in September, the political atmosphere is heating up with numerous candidates entering the race. This election is set to be a significant event, not just for the selection of the country’s next leader, but as a reflection of the public’s sentiment following years of economic hardship and political turmoil.

One can anticipate a surge in both ethical and questionable marketing tactics. Political campaigns are expected to activate fake social media accounts, leading to a barrage of misinformation and smear campaigns. These activities are not new to Sri Lankan politics but are likely to be more intense this time around, leveraging technology to sway public opinion. Additionally, the extensive use of CCTVs to capture candidates’ every move will add a layer of surveillance, where even the slightest lapse or humorous moment could be magnified and manipulated for political gain.

Promises are a staple of any election campaign, and this year is no exception. Candidates are likely to pledge a debt-free and prosperous Sri Lanka by 2030. However, the public’s trust in such promises may be waning, given the history of unfulfilled pledges and the recent economic crisis that saw many households lose electricity due to unpaid bills, job losses, and inflation.

Campaigns will be heavily funded by various institutions and business entities, raising concerns about the influence of money in politics. The reality, however, is that these financial backers expect returns on their investments, leading to a cynical view of the election process where “no free lunch” remains the underlying principle.

Violence is another  expectation in the lead-up to the elections. Historically, election-related violence in Sri Lanka has manifested in various forms, and this year might see a continuation or even an escalation of such incidents. The fear of legal repercussions is also palpable among sitting politicians, especially those with dubious records. Any government led by a party other than the Rajapaksa-led faction is expected to pursue investigations into alleged corruption and misconduct, a promise that parties like the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Power (NPP) have emphasized.

The United National Party (UNP), despite facing criticism, seems to have gained some confidence under the leadership of President Ranil Wickremesinghe. His administration is credited with managing the country’s debt crisis to some extent, though criticisms of ongoing corruption persist.

Recent legal controversies, such as the Supreme Court order that limited the powers of the Inspector General of Police (IGP) and the President’s hesitance in appointing an Acting IGP, add another layer of complexity to the political landscape, potentially influencing voter sentiment.

As it stands, the SJB and NPP appear leading the race. However, the election outcome could depend on the voting behavior in the North and East, and Central Estates regions, where ethnic and communal lines often play a significant role. Despite some Muslim leaders pledging support to the SJB, there is a notable absence of concerted efforts to engage the Tamil minority in these crucial regions.

The recent defection of members from the Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) to the UNP raises questions about internal party dynamics and the potential impact on voter trust. While this might seem like a disadvantage to the Rajapaksa clan, it could also pose a challenge for Ranil Wickremesinghe, who now has to manage members with tarnished reputations.

The political scenario in Sri Lanka remains fluid, with significant developments expected in the weeks leading up to the election. This election will not only decide the country’s leadership but also serve as a critical juncture in its journey towards stability and economic recovery. 

*Writer is former Sri Lankan Diplomat, Head of Tourism Authority and currently a lecturer for ECU Perth , Meditation teacher and Youtuber on Spirituality