By Rajan Philips –
Rajan Philips
After threatening to annihilate one of the planet’s oldest civilizations, TACO Trump chickened out again by grasping the ceasefire lifeline that Pakistan had assiduously prepared. Trump needed the ceasefire badly to stem the mounting opposition to the war in America. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted the war to continue because he needed it badly for his political survival. So, he contrived a fiction and convinced Trump that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. Trump as usual may not have noticed that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariff had clearly indicated Lebanon’s inclusion in his announcement of the ceasefire at 7:50 PM, Tuesday, on X. Ten minutes before Donald Trump’s fake deadline.
True to form on Wednesday, Israel unleashed the heaviest assault by far on Lebanon, reportedly killing over 300 people, the highest single-day death toll in the current war. Iran responded by re-closing the Strait of Hormuz and questioning the need for talks in Islamabad over the weekend. There were other incidents as well, with an oil refinery attacked in Iran, and Iranian drones and missiles slamming oil and gas infrastructure in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar.
The US tried to insist that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, with the argumentative US Vice President JD Vance, who was in Budapest, Hungary, campaigning for Viktor Orban, calling the whole thing a matter of “bad faith negotiation” as well as “legitimate misunderstanding” on the part of Iran, and warning Iran that “it would be dumb to jeopardise its ceasefire with Washington over Israel’s attacks in Lebanon.”
But as the attack in Lebanon drew international condemnation – from Pope Leo to UN Secretary General António Guterres, and several world leaders, and amidst fears of Lebanon becoming another Gaza with 1,500 people including 130 children killed and more than a million people displaced, Washington got Israel to stop its “lawn mowing” in southern Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to “open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible,”. Lebanese President Joeseph Aoun has also called for “a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, followed by direct negotiations between them.” Israel’s involvement in Lebanon remains a wild card that threatens the ceasefire and could scuttle the talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad.
Losers and Winners
After the ceasefire, both the Trump Administration and Iran have claimed total victories while the Israeli government wants the war to continue. The truth is that after more than a month into nonstop bombing of Iran, America and Israel have won nothing. Only Iran has won something it did not have when Trump and Netanyahu started their war. Iran now has not only a say over but control of the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire acknowledges this. Both Trump and Netanyahu are under fire in their respective countries and have no allies in the world except one another.
The real diplomatic winner is Pakistan. Salman Rushdie’s palimpsest-country has emerged as a key player in global politics and an influential mediator in a volatile region. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Field Marshal Asim Munir have both been praised by President Trump and credited for achieving the current ceasefire. The Iranian regime has also been effusive in its praise of Pakistan’s efforts.
It is Pakistan that persisted with the effort after initial attempts at backdoor diplomacy by Egypt, Pakistan and Türkiye started floundering. Sharing a 900 km border and deep cultural history with Iran, and having a skirmish of its own on the eastern front with Afghanistan, Pakistan has all the reason to contain and potentially resolve the current conflict in Iran. Although a majority Sunni Muslim country, Pakistan is home to the second largest Shia Muslim population after Iran, and is the easterly terminus of the Shia Arc that stretches from Lebanon. The country also has a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia that includes Pakistan’s nuclear cover for the Kingdom. An open conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia would have put Pakistan in a dangerously awkward position.
It is now known and Trump has acknowledged that China had a hand in helping Iran get to the diplomatic table. Pakistan used its connections well to get Chinese diplomatic reinforcement. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar flew to Beijing to brief his Chinese counterpart and secured China’s public support for the diplomatic efforts. The visit produced a Five-Point Plan that became a sequel to America’s 15-point proposal and the eventual ten-point offer by Iran.
There is no consensus between parties as to which points are where and who is agreeing to what. The chaos is par for the course the way Donald Trumps conducts global affairs. So, all kudos to Pakistan for quietly persisting with old school toing and froing and producing a semblance of an agreement on a tweet without a parchment.
It is also noteworthy that Israel has been excluded from all the diplomatic efforts so far. And it is remarkable, but should not be surprising, the way Trump has sidelined Isreal from the talks. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been enjoying overwhelming support of Israelis for starting the war of his life against Iran and getting the US to spearhead it. But now the country is getting confused and is exposed to Iranian missiles and drones far more than ever before. The Israeli opposition is finally coming alive realizing what little has Netanyahu’s wars have achieved and at what cost. Israel has alienated a majority of Americans and has no ally anywhere else.
It will be a busy Saturday in Islamabad, where the US and Iranian delegations are set to meet. Iran would seem to have insisted and secured the assurance that the US delegation will be led by Vice President Vance, while including Trump’s personal diplomats – Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran has not announced its team but it is expected to be led, for protocol parity, by Iran’s Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and will likely include its suave Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Vice President Vance’s attendance will be the most senior US engagement with Iran since Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal under President Obama.
The physical arrangements for the talks are still not public although Islamabad has been turned into a security fortress given the stakes and risks involved. The talks are expected to be ‘indirect’, with the two delegations in separate rooms and Pakistani officials shuttling between them. The status of Iran’s enriched uranium and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be the major points of contention. After Netanyahu’s overreach on Wednesday, Lebanon is also on the short list
The 2015 nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan) took months of negotiations and involved multiple parties besides the US and Iran, including China, France, Germany, UK, Russia and the EU. That served the cause of regional and world peace well until Trump tore up the deal to spite Obama. It would be too much to expect anything similar after a weekend encounter in Islamabad. But if the talks could lead to at least a permanent ceasefire and the return to diplomacy that would be a huge achievement.
Ashan / April 12, 2026
At the end of the day, JD. Vance, another novice in negotiating ceasefire deals, just like the crooked son in law and Witkoff, (two real estate developers who pretend to be experts in negotiations), comes out to say there has been no breakthrough in the ongoing talks, as Iran has “refused to end its nuclear program”. Looks like just like the last two times, they plan to start the bombing with their genocidal buddy, and these sham ceasefire talks were just a ruse to bide some time.
Now looking at the endless bombing of Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, that is going on in the region, no one can fault Iran for wanting nuclear or other weapons, it is vital for their security, existence, and defense.
It will be a deterrent and level the playing field. Something that the genocidal nation does not want in the neighborhood, as they want all the shiny toys and others weak and limping.
The zionists have shown that they are the existential threat in the region, and it is they who should be held responsible for the crimes against humanity, displacements, killing of hundreds of thousands of people, mostly women and children, the bombing of UN shelters, hospitals, schools, and even churches and mosques. Nothing is off limits to them.
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Lester / April 12, 2026
The “peace talks” have failed after a marathon 21 hours. Luckily I did not buy the top of the stock market last Friday. With Kushner and Wyckoff Distribution in the room, it’s like betting on red.
“Let Allah sort it out” – Sarah Palin
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Nutmarket / April 14, 2026
“Luckily I did not buy the top of the stock market last Friday. “
I don’t know about you guys out there, but my gut feeling is that something is seriously wrong with someone who feels the need to brag about his stock market prowess while the world order is being trashed by a Trump disguised as Jesus Christ.
Especially when that someone has only one nut (@)
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chiv / April 15, 2026
Nutmarket , 😄
Reservation Doctor
Trump calls it a
“COLLATERAL DAMAGE.”
Accidental removal of healthy @ instead of traumatized @.
😄
When confronted by his Bible reading supporters
Trump claimed he is
Doctor Jesus . C
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Roxie de Abrew / April 12, 2026
Thank you, Rajan, for your musings.
I write as the VEEP departs Islamabad,
The world awaits the next set of expletives from POTUS.
I salute the Iranian delegation; their performance reflects the culture of the Iranian people, the oldest civilisation on earth.
Quite unlike the wealthy mad dogs; quite unlike the Tambuttegama fraternity dealing the world’s worst false promises.
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CChampa / April 12, 2026
The first US-Iran peace negotiations held in Pakistan collapsed on Sunday early morning. Despite early speculations, it didn’t start on Friday either, and the actual negotiations were conducted for only about 12 hours. By the time I started writing a comment to another writer, Mohamed Fawaz Hassen’s ceasefire article, it was Saturday 5.33 a.m. in Pakistan time and like everybody else, I also hoped there would be a breakthrough.
As I said in the other article, the stance of the US on Iran is inflexible and they were fully aware that Iran would not agree to their terms.
With there are no future plans for negotiations, what will happen after two weeks-ceasefire expires?
1/2
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CChampa / April 12, 2026
Going by the recent utterances of President Donald Trump about decimating Iran’s civilization and the US military’s “mysterious suicidal activities” in the Southwestern Iran, I believe that the US will launch a suicidal ground, air and naval invasion in Southwestern Iran. The reason I say so is,
i. Southwestern Iran, which is the cradle of the ancient Persian civilization, could be the place which President Trump threatened to completely destroy. (He is not good at keeping secrets.)
ii. The Province of Khuzestan, which is the heart of Iran’s oil and gas industry, is located in the Southwestern Iran and President Trump may have a cute idea of occupying the province.
iii. The geography of the Southwestern Iran may hold another reason. Exploring the 60,000 years-old history in Zagros mountainous caves may also be a part of the plan. Remember, Obama did the same in Afghanistan mountainous caves under the guise of a mission to search and kill Taliban fighters. Anyway, the Southwestern Iran is home to Persians, Khuzestani Arabs and Turkic-speaking tribes and one of them has already downed an invisible and invincible American F-15E fighter jet which means that any US incursion into the area will bring decimation to invaders.
2/2
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CChampa / April 12, 2026
Did the US-Iran ceasefire collapse with Islamabad Talks? Because President Donald Trump announced that the US would blockade ships from the Strait of Hormuz with immediate effect. What does that mean? Will there be spectacular naval warfare and underwater warfare in the Strait of Hormuz? Wikipedia calls it a “tonnage war”.
What does the US gain by blockading commercial ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz? Isn’t it implied that the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation but the US is determined to keep it close? This action will skyrocket oil and gas prices. Also, it looks like the US is trying to impose a “total economic embargo” on the entire world where Iran is the least affected. How unwise! Or is it a simple tactic to replace Gulf oil with US oil? I don’t know, but the US-Iran war doesn’t seem to be ending soon.
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Ocean11 / April 14, 2026
Yes, what Israel is committing in the Gaza strip is genocidal and unacceptable. However the idea of Pakistan being used as a serious negotiator is laughable. Pakistan is itself a major sponsor of global terrorism with little to no rights for its Religious minorities , just like most other Islamic majority nations. The world must be at a very dark place if Pakistan is a sensible negotiator.
As a nation Pakistan has never had a principled stance on anything. Whilst India at the time firmly headed the non aligned movement Pakistan opportunistically sided with Washington whilst secretly hating everything Western and even backstabbing the USA. They underhandedly funded the Taliban whilst taking US money. The bottom line is that they cannot be trusted and contribute nothing useful to the global economy.
Its main export is cheap labour to the middle east and Uber drivers to the Western nations. As someone who has lived in the UK for 20 years I will confidently say that they are one of the most troublesome and entitled groups of people I have come across. The untrustworthiness of the Pakistanis extends many of its people as well, not just the political leaders.
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Ocean11 / April 14, 2026
Contd ….
It is they who leave their countries using all sorts of desperate measures and once arriving in the West they try to flip the script by making it look as if they are doing the British a favour by filling in vacant jobs when in reality it is they who exponentially increase their living standards by moving from their poverty driven villages to the West. Any so-called economic gain the West gains by their filing in of cheap labour jobs is dwarfed by the benefit that these migrants gain by the significant increase in their living standards and the remittances they send to their towns and villages.
Yes other groups such as the Nepalese, Sri Lankans and Indians also initially work cheap labour jobs but at least they are fundamentally more grateful to their host nations.
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old codger / April 14, 2026
Ocean 11,
Your experience of 20 years is appreciated, but you may be interested in something that happened 400 years ago in India, (not exactly) which led to all this:
https://youtu.be/_8SjH9UzGak?si=Hf0R4OaPOu4_w2Xq
.
Still, the Brits do deserve some credit for being able to laugh at themselves.
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LankaScot / April 14, 2026
Hello OC,
Indefatigable British Upper Class Officers on “a Tiger in Africa”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLdk2C25Z14&t=119s
Best regards
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SJ / April 14, 2026
oc
I remember somethings like these marine ripples lasting some years on these pages and died away a year or two ago.
They seem to have returned under a new banner.
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old codger / April 14, 2026
SJ,
The more the merrier 😆
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Rohan25 / April 14, 2026
Pakistan is the peacemaker, a peace maker that imports hardline Islamic terrorism, overseas, especially to India. It has an identity crisis as its identity is based only on Islam, so it borrowed its entire history and created myths, just like these fake Arab Tamil Muslims in Sri Lanka do. The only country that has an existential crisis five times a day. In the morning, they look to the Arabs, and Saudi Arabia becomes their spiritual motherland, Arabic words fast replacing Urdu, just like the way Arabic is replacing Tamil and Arabic culture replacing Tamil Islamic culture, amongst Sri Lankan Muslims. Mohamed Bin Quasim is taught in textbooks as the first Pakistani. By afternoon, the heroes shift to invaders from Central Asia, Mahmud of Ghazni, who raided the subcontinent multiple times, is celebrated, Babur, born in Central Asia, is claimed as the national legacy, and then comes the Turkish phase, when Arabs started to lose their charm, Pakistan discovered Ertugul on Netflix, and suddenly everyone was a descendant of the Ottamans, just like all the Sri Lankan Muslims who are 95% Tamil are all descendants of Arabs and other western Asians. The state literally aired this show on primetime as a national identity exercise.
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Rohan25 / April 14, 2026
When someone mentions ancient civilisation, they claim the ancient Dravidian civilisations Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa as theirs, the 5000 year old Indus Valley civilisation that predates Islam by 3000 years, despite the state of Pakistan and Pakistanis taking pains to distance themselves from their predominantly Indus Valley Dravidian origins and heritage, they now claim these ancient Indus Valley, the anceint Hindu and Buddhist and heritage and narratives they sidelined in the name of Islam is now claimed as their national heritage to make them look good, but their celebrated fugures and heroes origninate from Arabia, Turkey or Central Asia. Pakistan replaced history with ideology.
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Rohan25 / April 14, 2026
A country that borrows all its heroes from foreign nations ends up with citizens who are confused and do not know who they actually are. Predominantly Punjabi and Sindhi by ethnicity, Arab by aspiration, Turkish by Netflix and Dravidian Indus valley by convenience and to look good. This is not an identity but a costume change, similar to the Muslims in Sri Lanka. Tamil by ethnicity but opportunistically Arab by aspiration and brainwashing in the name of Islam and in imagined universal Islamic oneness or Ummah, just like Pakistan.
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Ocean11 / April 14, 2026
Contd…
The problem goes into the second generations as well, unlike the second generation Sri Lankans and the Nepalese who are fundamentally more loyal to their host countries the British born Pakistanis are resentful towards Britain and only use their Britishness when it comes to claiming benefits or ironically looking down on other immigrant groups who are in fact more productive and of use to British society.
Even the other troubled groups such as the Afro- Caribbeans and the Irish at least integrate on a social level. I.e: There are a lot of mixed race families across Afro- Caribbeans and the white working class. On other hand where the Pakistanis have settled amongst the white working class all there is hostility. No wonder the far right surges amongst areas with large Pakistani populations.
As much as I disagree with the far right and Tommy Robinson one issue they are right on is the Pakistani population. Even the so-called progressives amongst their community such as Sadiq Khan are ultimately self-serving.
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Nicholas Crusz / April 14, 2026
From Peacemaker abroad to Executioner at home, what a eye wash.
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SJ / April 14, 2026
Some of us seem to be hastier than Donald T.
Cannot we wait a while for DT himself to unravel?
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